WMO

Social and Economic Benefit Studies

in WMO region RA VI

Adriaan PerrelsVice-chair WG SDP / chair TT-SEB2

Zagreb, Croatia, SEB course – 29.6 – 3.7 2015

Contents

RA VI – reported interest in SEB

Conducted SEBs in RA VI

Case study examples

Exploitation and communication

Conclusions

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WMO survey on SEB in RA VI (2011)•25 NMSs responded (out of 50)

Reported reasons for interest in SEB

Justifying public funding 68%

Investment / R&D prioritization 44%

Service development (incl. charging structures) 56%

Many respondents indicated that support was welcome (from the WMO), notably regarding: Guidance (’how to define / conduct / etc.’) SEB methods Experience & information sharing Funding

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book

TT-SEB / COST

SEB studies in RA VI area (not exhaustive)

UK MetOffice (2007; 2013; 2015)

Russia (2001; NOAA 2006)

Denmark (DMI) (Transport Ministry 2006)

Finland (FMI) (VTT 2007/2008; FMI 2011/2012)

South-East Europe & former CIS (World Bank 2008)

Croatia (HMZ) (VTT/FMI 2008)

MeteoSwiss (INFRAS 2008)

Spain (AEMET) (datos.gob.es 2014)

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Examples of SEB studies

MeteoSwiss (Frei 2010; Frei et al 2011) Broad scope, but with emphasis on transport Benefit transfer by sector and by approach All weather service providers in Switzerland

FMI (Nurmi et al 2012; Nurmi et al 2013) Focus on transport Deep analysis of the value chain Also tries to account for user cost

UK MetOffice (2013) (2013) Benefits of high performance computing Avoided hazard cost; optimal wind power siting

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Characterizing case studies

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Characteristics Switzerland 2008-2012 Finland 2007-2012 UK

Purpose(s)Validation of hydro/met-services Validation of hydro/met-services Validation of investment

Commissioned by

MeteoSwiss FMI/ VTT (EVASERVE project) ; FMI

UK MetOffice

Carried out by1. Internally (pre-study)2. INFRAS

1. VTT2. Internally

private consultants; universities

Funded byMeteoSwiss EVASERVE project / FMI

EU EWENT / FMIUK MetOffice

Scope

First broad brush; later more precise (transport)

First quite broad (based on data availability); later more precise (transport)

one specific topic – benefits of new super computer (focuses on measurable benefit generation in selected sectors)

Costs of SEB study

1. ?2. ~ $ 100 000

1. 15 ~ 20 person months (around € 230 000)

2. roughly € 100 000

approx. £ 50 000 per sector study

Estimated (net) benefit

~ $ 240 million/year; costs: ~ $ 83 million/year (incl. private WS)Road: B/C ratio ~10

~ $ 360 million/year (260?) costs: ~ $ 75 million/year;road: € 36 million ; B/C ratio ~10

~ £ 2 billion during 5 years;Investment cost: ~ £ 100 million

Follow-up

• Links with / extension to climate services

• Communication of results

• More surveys by enduser group• MCDA of service development

choices• Cross institute product

development forum• Benefit-cost analysis consultancy

and studies• Communication of results

• Purchase advice• Communication of results and

valuation method

Examples of SEB studies – in depth

Switzerland, Finland Road: maintenance, clearance – cost savings

better traffic flow – time savings avoided accidents – avoided

cost

Challenge is to show the differential effect of a new or improved weather service (as compared to current practice)

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Tracing information effects

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Swiss road case(Frei et al 2014)

Finnish road case

(Nurmi et al

2013)

Examples of SEB studies – in depth

UK MetOffice: Benefits of high performance computing:Higher accuracy / resolution enables further hazard cost reduction through

Emergency services (better anticipation; deployment) Better located and sized protection less damage to

private and public property

Higher accuracy / resolution enables: Optimized siting of wind turbines

Benefits are conditional on quality of complimentary models and services

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The benefits of showing the benefits

Analysis of the value chain not only gives an idea of the current net benefits, but can also show what can be improved in each stage of the value chain

Supports the development of understanding the customer, customer relations, and partnerships Citizens Public agencies Specific sectors (agriculture, transport, energy) Neighboring NMS’s … facilitated by good communication

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Conclusions

Experience with SEB is building up, but by no means common knowledge in RA VI

SEB is not only numerical results, but also a learning process and management tool

SEB comes in many sizes purpose should drive the ambition level and allocated resources

Re-/deregulation as new motivator Enhanced sharing of information and experience

seems very useful Value chain as a key concept

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References Anderson et al (2015), Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and

Hydrological Services – case studies 1, 6 and 7 Datos.gob.es (2014), Estudio Sector Infomediario 2014. Parte III. Análisis Coste – Beneficio de la

información meteorológica http://datos.gob.es/content/estudios-de-caracterizacion-del-sector-infomediario-2014

Frei, Th., von Grünigen, S. and Willemse, S. (2012), Economic benefit of meteorology in the Swiss road transportation sector, Meteorological Applications

Frei Th. (2010), Economic and social benefits of meteorology and climatology in Switzerland, Meteorological Applications, Vol.17, pp. 39–44.

Leviäkangas, P., (2009), Benefits and value of meteorological information services – the case of the Finnish Meteorological Institute, Meteorological Applications, Vol.16, pp.369–379

Leviäkangas,P., Hautala, R., Räsänen, J., Öörni, R., Sonninen, S., Hekkanen, M., Ohlström, M., Venäläinen, A., and Saku, S. (2007), Benefits of meteorological services in Croatia, VTT Research Notes 2420, Oulu

Met Office UK (2007), The Public Weather Service’s contribution to the UK economy, www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/h/o/PWSCG_benefits_report.pdf

Nurmi, P., Perrels, A., Nurmi, V. (2013), Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on the road transport sector, Meteorological Applications, Vol.20, pp.217 – 223

Nurmi,V, Perrels, A., Nurmi, P., Seitz, D., Michaelides, S., Athanasatos, S., and Papadakis, M. (2012), Economic value of weather forecasts on transportation – Impacts of weather forecast quality developments to the economic effects of severe weather, EWENT report D5.2 http://ewent.vtt.fi/Deliverables/D5/D5_2_16_02_2012_revised_final.pdf

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www.wmo.int

Thank you for your attentionHad this information a differential effect?

adriaan.perrels@fmi.fi