WMO

The WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project –

bringing the benefits of leading NWP to developing countries

 

Ken MylneChair DPFS (Data-processing and Forecasting Systems) & Chair SWFDP SG

Thanks to Alice Soares (WMO), Caroline Bain and Bob Turner (Met Office), Eugene Poolman (S. Africa) and James Lunny (NZ)

WMO; WDS

Fundamental idea of SWFDP

NOAA/NCEP

UK Met Office

ECMWF

Global Centres

Users

National Centres

• Global forecasting capabilities

• Well resourced

• National populations protected by severe weather warnings

• No forecasting capability

• Poorly resourced• Populations vulnerable

• No severe weather warnings

Fundamental idea of SWFDP

NOAA/NCEP

UK Met Office

ECMWF

Global Centres

Users(Regional Forecasting Support Centre RFSC)

Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre RSMC

National Centres

GDPFS PWS

Global NWP centres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;

Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;

NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;

NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.

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Global Centres

User communities, including Disaster

Management authorities

NMCsRSMC Pretoria

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

Differences between SWFDP and FDP/RDP

SWFDP CBS Operational Aim for long-term

sustainability PWS development Exploit science to

save lives and property

FDP/RDP WWRP/CAS Research Limited trial period

SERA research Improve methods

and science

Main goals of SWFDP

Improve warnings of severe weather and lead-time on alerts

Improve collaborative working and relationships between NHMSs

Provide feedback to global centres on the performance of their models

Capacity development

Disaster risk reduction

Climate change adaptation (GFCS)

Socio-economic sectors (AeM, AgM, etc)

Basic systems(WIGOS, WIS)

RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas

and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through

dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

SWFDP Guidance Products from SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC PretoriaRSMC Pretoria

SWFDP Development and Implementation: a 4-step cycle

Establish regional partnerships Regional management teams; focus on forecasting and warning services of meteorological-related hazards

Plan and develop of prototype demonstration project

Regional project-specific IP for which the management team is accountable. IP describes team members’ responsibilities, project activities and milestones (typically for 12-18 months)

Implement demonstration project Tracking, continuously evaluation, training and reporting

Broaden and sustain successful prototypes (return to step 1)

Under the Guidance of the Steering Group of the SWFDP

TrainingFunded by NZ Ministry for the Environment

Tropical meteorology and climatology, “why do we need ensembles?”, how to interpret NWP from different centres. 3-5 days per country.

Aimed at a broad base of forecasters. No equations. More time spent on exercises than on lectures.

“DRR Day” – practical exercises involving outside agencies.

WMO

Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC-TC La Réunion)

Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji)

Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar)

Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC Hanoi)

Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC New Delhi)

WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs) 42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs) Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR,

CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy, JCOMM, and CAS)

SWFDP Regional Projects

SWFDP East Africa

6 countries RSMC Nairobi RFSC Dar (Lake Victoria)

Forecasting and nowcasting tools

Satellite and remote sensing

Forecaster guidance

Numerical Prediction Models

Forecasting and nowcasting tools

Satellite and remote sensing

Numerical Prediction Models

Forecaster guidance

(under construction on the website but access through EUMETSAT/ PUMA system)

Lightning

IR

RGB

Severe Convection

Forecasting and nowcasting tools

Satellite and remote sensing

Numerical Prediction

Models

Forecaster guidance

Model Producing centre

UKMO Lake Victoria UKMO

WRF KMS (from NOAA/ NCAR)

COSMO KMS (developed at DWD)

Unified Model UKMO

ECMWF IFS ECMWF

GFS NOAA/ NCAR

Higher resolution

Lower resolution

High resolution models: Lake VictoriaValidation of model: Case study 17th December 2012

4km modelGlobal model Observations

MSG Satellite OLR 17/12/2011 0600UTCT+18 forecast T+18 forecast

Chamberlain, J. M., C.L. Bain, D.F.A. Boyd, K. McCourt, T. Butcher and S. Palmer (2013): Forecasting storms over Lake Victoria using a high-resolution model. Meteorological Applications

Forecasting and nowcasting tools

Satellite and remote sensing

Numerical Prediction Models

Forecaster guidance

GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA)Now being implemented operationally – JMA - Met Office collaboration

SWFDP: - Southern Africa- Eastern Africa- Southwest Pacific- Southeast Asia

Daily Teleconferencing between forecasters

Met Office

GGU

Kenya

(Cross region)

Tanzania

(Lake Victoria)

RwandaUganda Burundi Ethiopia

South

Sudan

Consensus

Support

Collaboration

Nice theory, but how does it work in reality?

Here’s one example:Background: Kiribati is a participating country in the SW Pacific SWFDP. It sits either side of the equator. It is made up of 32 low-lying atolls; most of it is <2 metres above sea level.

Large Waves are the most significant weather threat to Kiribati.

In Wellington…..

+

Meteorologist consults variety of guidance to produce a high-level overview chart:

Kiribati forecaster accesses MetConnect Pacific to find chart

In Kiribati…

• Further internal discussion• Application of local

knowledge• Contact Wellington/Fiji if

needed?

“Special Weather Bulletin” issued

Contact relevant government departments, ports authority etc.Deal with media

This is really down to the individual country – they know the structures and local conditions

Monitor event with new guidance; respond to official/public/media enquiries

Feedback after the event. Format of warning? Enough time to prepare? Accurate?

Consider Tropical Cyclones Consider Tropical Cyclones Eline (2000) and Favio (2007)Eline (2000) and Favio (2007)

(both equivalent to Cat 4 hurricanes ~220 km/h winds)(both equivalent to Cat 4 hurricanes ~220 km/h winds)

Doc Ref no: FCAST-PRE-SWFDP-20131113-001.1

• TC Eline 2000 Mozambique:– 700 deaths, 4.5 million affected – Mozambique was not prepared from a DRR perspective– Massive international rescue and support

• TC Favio 2007 Mozambique:– 29 deaths, 285000 affected– Warnings issued days in advance– Disaster management infrastructure mobilized– Communities prepared in prior training were

successfully evacuated within 2 days

• How did improved EWS through SWFDP contribute to this success for TC Favio?

Case Study: Tropical Cyclone Favio Case Study: Tropical Cyclone Favio 20-24 Feb 200720-24 Feb 2007

• TC Favio caused widespread damage over Mozambique and Zimbabwe

• The consistency of model forecasts provided confidence to RSMC Pretoria to issue guidance to NMCs on potential landfall and movement 5 days in advance

• The model forecast proved to be quite accurate with landfall at Vilancoulos, moving to Eastern Zimbabwe

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Favio

Doc Ref no: FCAST-PRE-SWFDP-20131113-001.1

• In both Mozambique and Zimbabwethe NMCs agreed with the guidance products and issued warnings 5 days in advance to disaster management departments

• In Mozambique: – Provinces were put on alert levels

2 - 3 days in advance– The public responded well and major

loss of live were prevented

• In Zimbabwe:– Public received early warnings by radio,

TV and newspapers 5 days in advance

EvaluationEvaluation

• Since Eline in 2000 there was a dramatic improvement in the entire DRR system in Mozambique– including EWS through SWFDP

• Question: How much of the savings of human lives can really be directly attributed to SWFDP?– SWFDP definitely lead to earlier warnings issued which

resulted in earlier evacuations

WMO

The Future - Expansion of SWFDP to a global Programme to Strengthen Operational Centres

Expansion of the SWFDP towards global coverage (3 development and demonstration phases)

Transition to sustainable operations (phase 4)

It requires a programme office to support non-operational activities and development of new SWFDP regional projects

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Green : existing projects / lead RSMCBlue : projects to be initiated in 2014 / lead RSMCRed : future projects / lead RSMC

SWFDP Role in HIWeather Project

Testbed for new forecast products and capabilities Feedback and verification (subjective?)

SERA work in building PWS requirements and relationships

But please remember… Regional Centres and NMHSs have very limited

resources Focus must be on operational work

Issuing warnings Developing PWS user relations and response plans Staff and user training Sustainability

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www.wmo.int

Thank you for your attention

DISCUSSION