WLW Day 4: Climate Change and the Hindu-Kush Himalayas: Impact on Water Resources

8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: Climate Change and the Hindu-Kush Himalayas: Impact on Water Resources

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Climate Change

and

the

Climate

Change

and

the

HinduHindu ‐‐Kush Himalayas:Kush Himalayas:

David Molden David Molden

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal



A regional mountain knowledge and learningcentre devoted to sustainable mountain

www.icimod.or

.

210 million

HKH

1.3 billion

Regional Member Countries : Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan

people

downstream



Climate Change in the HimalayaClimate Change in the Himalaya

Climate

CreatingCreatingChange

ery gery gDemandDemand

onon

WaterWater

BiodiversityBiodiversityPopulationDynamics

SystemSystem ForestForest

Cultural heritageCultural heritage……

Globalization

NaturalResources

UseIncrease adaptive capacity and resilienceIncrease adaptive capacity and resilience

of mountain communitiesof mountain communitiesand those dependent on mountain servicesand those dependent on mountain services

Land UseChange



Hotspot for climate change: vital

- an area of extraordinarybeauty and a world heritage

Himalayan glaciers are

sources o res wa erreserves providingheadwaters for 10 major

the Tibetan Plateau andSouth Asia

–lifeline for almost onethird of humanity



Climate Change Impacts

• Warmin : “ the rate of warmin in the re ion is more than

five times faster than warming globally," (Lau et al, NASA,2006);• ac er an snow me acce era e• Changing habitat for high-elevation plants and animals•• Changing availability of water for irrigation, drinking and

ecosystems• Potential impacts on agriculture and ecosystems



Reducing scientific uncertainty

blank spot inIPCC AR4



Regional Status of Glaciers in the HinduRegional Status of Glaciers in the Hindu

--

Number of Glaciers – 54,820 – 2

CountryGlacierNumber

Area (km 2)Avg. Area/

Glacier Ice Reserve(km 3)

Afghanistan 3622 2677.34 0.739 167.662Bhutan 787 680.25 0.864 47.935China/TAR 26347 29528.6 1.121 2648.7India 12830 12295.58 0.958 1131.26Myanmar 87 23.99 0.276 0.929Nepal 3808 4212.03 1.106 346.70Pakistan 7339 10,991.63 1.497 1758.45Total 54,820 60411.42 1.102 6101.64



ElevationElevation--Temperature TrendTemperature Trende a ons pe a ons p e an a eaue an a eau

Liu and Chen, 2000



Glaciers several thousands of years oldare rapidly disappearing



Impact of Climate Change ‐Imja G acier, Nepa

1956

(Photo: Fritz Muller;courtesy of Jack Ives)

photograph of Imja glacier(Photo: Giovanni

Kappenbergercourtesy of Alton C Byers)



Changing Glacier EnvironmentChanging Glacier Environment“ISRO:75% of Himalayan glaciers retreating” (“ISRO:75% of Himalayan glaciers retreating” (ToI ToI, 16 May 2011), 16 May 2011)

Gangapurna glacier atthe northern slope ofAnnapurna Range,

Manang Village, Nepal1957 Tony Hagen1957 Tony Hagen 2010 Nabin Baral, ICIMOD2010 Nabin Baral, ICIMOD

RothlishbergerRothlishberger, 1980, 1980

Nabin Baral, 2007Nabin Baral, 2007



Glacial hazards:Glacial hazards:

Tso Rolpa



Water resources & glaciers

River Area sqkm

Meandischarge

m 3/s

% of glaciermelt in river

flow

Populationx1000

Populationdensity

Water perpersonm 3/ ear

Indus 1,081,718 5533 44.8 178,483 165 830Ganges 1,016,124 18691 9.1 407,466 401 ~2500

Brahmaputra 651,335 19824 12.3 118,543 182 ~2500

Irrawaddy 413,710 13565 unknown 33,097 80 18,614

Salween 271,914 1494 8.8 5,982 22 23,796

Mekong 805,604 11048 6.6 57,198 71 8934

Yangtze 1,722,193 34000 18.5 368,549 214 2265

e ow , . ,

Tarim 1,152,448 40.2 8,067 7 754

Total 1,324,800



Regional Monitoring scheme – Snow



2000-2010 Decadal Snow CoverChange Map

Trend Analysis

-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16

Percent



Extreme rainfallExtreme rainfall eventsevents- -NepalNepal

Number of rainy days y = -0.0576x + 103.76R2 = 0.0072

120

•• Less rainy daysLess rainy days90

95

100

105

110

115

D a y s

70

75

80

85

1 9 7 1

1 9 7 3

1 9 7 5

1 9 7 7

1 9 7 9

1 9 8 1

1 9 8 3

1 9 8 5

1 9 8 7

1 9 8 9

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 3

Number of days with rain >= 100 mm

1987, 106 19981975

y = 0.5997x + 61.417R2 = 0.0984

100

120

•• ore n enseore n enserainfall eventsrainfall events1977

1992, 35

1982

40

60

80

D a y s

0

1

9 7 1

1

9 7 3

1

9 7 5

1

9 7 7

1

9 7 9

1

9 8 1

1

9 8 3

1

9 8 5

1

9 8 7

1

9 8 9

1

9 9 1

1

9 9 3

1

9 9 5

1

9 9 7

1

9 9 9

2

0 0 1

2

0 0 3

Year (Adopted from(Adopted from BaidyaBaidya andand RegmiRegmi, 2007), 2007)



Kos arrage



Pakistan Floods



Hydrological significance of River basins in the HKH region



Changes in runoff over time:Changes in runoff over time:

(redrawn from Kaser, unpublished)(redrawn from Kaser, unpublished)High Uncertainty, Limited Baseline Information



Climate Change impact on

• All scenarios su est a lar e chan e in

natural vegetation• Change in species composition with probablencrease occurrence o nvas ve spec es

• Change in wetland condition•

and evapotraspiration, adverse impact onproductivity of agriculture and livestock

sec ors



Climate Change Impacts

5Responses



1. Fill Knowledge Gaps

•• Role of different cryospheric components

• Role of black carbon aerosol on glacierme ng• Condition and role of wetlands• Downstream impacts and responses



UnderUnder--representation ofrepresentation ofmeteorological observation in the high Himalayasmeteorological observation in the high Himalayas

600521

300

400

500

S t a t i o n s

9864

352 0 1

0

100

200 N o o

f

<1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8Elevation, km

952 met. stations



2. Adaptation and Resilience Building

•policy/practice

• Local solutions for global problems (eg

• Improved value chains for high valued

products

resilient agriculture and ecosystems



Strategies?

• ar y warn ng sys ems• Integrated watershed development• Water storage

• Landsca e a roach for biodiversitconservation ecosystem management

• New livelihood o tions• Regional cooperation•



Past GLOF events inPast GLOF events in HKH regionHKH region

About 56 past GLOF events in the HKHAbout 56 past GLOF events in the HKH

Region (BhutanRegion (Bhutan -- 4, China4, China - - 29, Nepal29, Nepal - - 14,14,

PakistanPakistan - - 9) recorded with about 10 of them9) recorded with about 10 of them

--



DRR: Risk mapping, capacity development

Dingboche



3. Foster Collaboration across or ers

Indus Basin Kosi Basin

Abu Dabi Dialogue and South Asia Water Initiative



Transboundary cooperation:The Koshi basin

Imja

About 54% of thecatchment area lies

,



River Basin & Transect Approaches



Intervention Levels in Transect and River Basin ApproachesREGIONAL ENABLING FRAMEWORKS FOR

SCIENTIFIC / TECHNICAL COOPERATION– 1st LevelTransboundary Broker and Facilitator / Regional PlatformResearch Institutions, Academia

STRATEGIC/POLICY ENABLING– 2nd Level

A lied Research / Policies /Stakeholder Priorities Government Agencies, Planners, Policy Makers, Localgovernment, Community organizations

PRACTICAL ACTION / IMPLEMENTATION– 3rd LevelDirectl Related to Develo ment ActivitiesPlanners/Policy Makers/ Practitioners Developmentprojects, NGOs, Resilient Communities



4. Capacity Building and

• Trainin to meet new needs: lacier massbalance, flood risk management, datamanagement, forecasting

• ommon pro oco or a a co ec on antelemetry

• Institutional stren thenin for more ada tive capacity

• Data dissemination, public awareness,

sens z ng



5. Global exchange of

• :



ICIMOD as aregional knowledge organisation

• ,

perspective• -

regionally accessible

• Promoting the extension from local to transboundaryapproaches

• Customising international knowledge

• Capacity development, common methodologies,regionally accessible data, monitoring, quality control



Thank ou



Thank ou

1. Fill Knowledge Gaps2. Build Adaptive Capacity

3. Foster Collaboration acrossBorders

4. Build Capacity

5. Global Exchange of Mountain

WLW Day 4: Climate Change and the Hindu-Kush Himalayas: Impact on Water Resources

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