HIMAP HINDU KUSH HIMALAYAS MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (HIMAP): ACTION TO SUSTAIN A GLOBAL ASSET

 

Presentation for the 5th TPE Workshop Rajeev Goyal, ICIMOD

Berlin 9 December 2014

10 Major River Systems 4 Global Biodiversity Hotspots330 Important Bird Areas1.2 Billion Humans

Background and Context for Why HIMAP was Created

Filling the IPCC data gap identified for the HKH Region Mitigating the breach: science community, policy making bodies, and

traditional communities Defining how the HKH is a global asset (just as AMAP helped define

the Arctic as a global asset) Need for ‘scenarios thinking’ and modeling of complex bio-

physical, social, and economic drivers of change in the region Identifying tipping points and communicating them to policy

makers Urgency: Precipitous decline of bio-cultural diversity, glacial

biomass changes and shifts in hydrological cycle, and human vulnerability

Need to simplify the policy messages and create multi-institutional consensus and momentum around a few core objectives

Costs of inaction will be high

Drawing lessons from the Arctic Experience:More than 2 decades of monitoring and assessment

1. Moving beyond a single publication format to frame an ongoing and cumulative process and culture of high quality monitoring

2. Interweaving of monitoring and assessment functions

3. Live-Feed data on glaciers, biodiversity, urbanization and other aspects

4. Production should be in a range of formats including videos, slide shows, summaries, one-pagers, graphs, data portals, and also the assessment. This will help reach different target audiences

5. Employ Photo Contests and Calls for Content and Testimonials to acquire original material and build awareness within traditional communities

6. Identify the knowledge gaps and frame new research directions

7. Follow AMAP 4-part documents structure: Education Summaries, overview reports, scientific background reports and technical reports

8. Identifying Hot Spots to Provide TEK perspective

9. Lead Authors of the full science report should be profiled on website and featured in a video

10. The “Integration Team” should be comprised of Lead Authors.

11. Working Groups comprised of the lead author teams

12. Taking a positive approach, Identifying the opportunities for action

13. Assessment is not an inventory but rather an evaluation of threats and opportunities

AMAP: Multiple Products

Key Differences between AMAP and HIMAP

Population: 4 million versus 1.3 billion in HKH watershed Arctic focuses on the polar caps-oceans nexus, while the HKH

focus is the glacier-watershed and upstream/downstream linkages

AMAP focused on oil & gas exploration, pollutant cycling, POPs, and bio-magnification, whereas critical issues in the HKH may be different

Urbanization, Mobility, Migration and Growth in HKH is happening at a frenzied pitch

Drivers of change and consequent future scenarios might be more complex in HKH due to greater human population and range of ecosystem types

Understanding HIMAP’s Operational Structure

Steering Committee (5)

Integration Team (18-20)

Working Groups (5)

Chapter Lead Authors (17)

Chapter Scientists (2 per chapter, 34 total)

Country Report Teams (1 per country)

Rigorous Review Process (Independent)

HIMAP Working Groups

WG 1. Defining the Vision for the HKH

WG 2. State of Knowledge

WG 3. Drivers of Change and Future Scenarios

WG 4. Sustainable Development

WG 5. Policy Recommendations

Integration & Synthesis Team: Comprised of all the Lead Authors Overseen by SC Collectively will draft Chapter 0 and 16, which will also be

stand-alone documents

Working Groups 1 and 2

Working Group 1 - Vision

Chapter 0: Summary for Decision-makers

Chapter 1: Introduction: Setting the Scene

Working Group 2 – State of Knowledge

Chapter 2: State of Knowledge and Trends

Working Group 3 (Drivers)

Chapter 3: Drivers of Change: Local, Regional, and Global

Climate Change Disasters, Droughts and Floods Invasive alien species (IAS) Energy (hydropower, fossil fuels, wind, solar, biomass) Air Pollution Economic Growth and Industrialization Trade Migration/Remittances Built fabric/Construction Techniques Urbanization Technology, Mobility, and Communications Land Pollution and Solid Waste Land Use and Land Cover Changes, Deforestation Water Pollution

Working Group 3 (Future Scenarios)

Chapter 4: Future Scenarios “Green/Eco- Scenario” (Environmentally Friendly, organic farming, inclusive

development) “Economic Growth and Industrial Scenario” (Less attention to Environment

more large hydropower, more monocultures, more timber industries) “Business as Usual Scenario” (following present trends and being influenced

by global economy) “Sustainable Mountain Development Scenario”

Impacts of Each Scenario on: Economic & Social Equitability Ecosystems Biodiversity Securities: Food, Water, Energy, & Livelihood

Working Group 3 (Climate Change)

Chapter 5: “Climate Change in the HKH”

Physical Sciences Modeling of Climate Change linked to the 4 Scenarios (linked to the IPCC scenarios)

Impacts and Vulnerability Glaciers

Working Groups 4 and 5 (Sustainable Development and Policy Recommendations)

Working Group 4: Sustainable Mountain Development

Chapter 6: Sustaining the HKH ecosystem servicesChapter 7: Meeting Future energy needs (Energy Security)Chapter 8: Water Availability and Use (Water Security)Chapter 9: Achieving Food SecurityChapter 10: Managing Trans-boundary Air Pollution and Black CarbonChapter 11: Equity: Poverty, vulnerability and livelihoodChapter 12: Adaptation StrategiesChapter 13: Gender and Inclusive Development (indigenous groups, ethnic

minorities)Chapter 14: MigrationChapter 15: Country Specific Implications

Working Group 5: Policy Recommendations

CONCLUSION/CHAPTER 16: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY MAKERS

What has been achieved so far?

Working Groups & Chapter Structure defined by the HIMAP Steering Committee

Meeting in Kathmandu focused on the Food-Water-Energy Nexus where key messages were defined and presented

Identification of potential authors, lead authors, and reviewers

Write-shop on Drivers of Change to take place in Bhutan on February 4-6 in conjunction with the Himalayan Circle-Third Pole Environment organized

Workshop focused on indigenous knowledge and perspective of the business community being organized in Bhutan, July 2015 in conjunction with Himalayan Consensus

Process/TOR for Lead coordinating author selection defined

Key issues identified during the Kathmandu Food-Water-Energy Nexus Workshop

Scale issue needs to be adequately addressed by the assessment: Local/micro catchment, district/watershed, national/sub-basin, regional/basin

Must assess current and future water availability and demand scenarios under changing climate and socio-economic development

Adaptation and resilience measures will be critical in terms of identifying solutions and recommendations

Availability, affordability, quality/reliability and sustainability are basic tenants of food/water/energy security in mountain areas

The energy demands in mountain regions are rising Upstream and downstream perspective Energy demand growing rapidly (3-5% annually) due to rapid urbanization,

rising income and changing lifestyles and the supply-demand gaps are expected to further widen

Mountain biodiversity at risk Policies, institutions, technologies must sensitize to mountain contexts

Next Steps and How to Become a Part of HIMAP

Writers: lead authors and contributing authors Hosting: Academic institutions, conferences and other

venues to host/integrate HIMAP exercise Students: literature review and research Contact us if interested to become a HIMAP author or to

learn more about how you can help (rajeev.goyal@icimod.org)

THANK YOU!! 

HIMAP: Action to Sustain a Global Asset