Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 WISCONSIN’S FUTURE WORKFORCE AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE...

Wisconsin’s Wisconsin’s Future Future

WorkforceWorkforce

April 22, 2009

WISCONSIN’S FUTURE WISCONSIN’S FUTURE WORKFORCEWORKFORCE

ANDAND

WHAT IT MEANSWHAT IT MEANS FOR THEFOR THE

STATE’S ECONOMY STATE’S ECONOMY

Green Innovations 2009

Dennis K. WintersChief, Office of Economic AdvisorsWisconsin Department of Workforce Development

April 22, 2009

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April 22, 2009

THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER’S ECONOMYIN FACT, IT WAS AN ABORATION


WorkforceWorkforce

April 22, 2009

WORKFORCE

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April 22, 2009

Workforce development and

economic development are

interrelated and interdependent.


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April 22, 2009

QUANTITY

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April 22, 2009

WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTHBECOMES FLAT

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

Wisconsin Population and Labor Force

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

( x 1

000

)

POPULATION

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

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April 22, 2009

ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELLWIDEN THE SIDEWALK !

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April 22, 2009

BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTUREPARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA

Changes in LFPR by Age Cohort

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Constant2000201020202030

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April 22, 2009

WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE HIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

Worker Difference from Census 2000

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030

New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3%

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April 22, 2009

LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPRRETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION

Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

PopulationLabor force base caseBLS prj. changeElevated LFPR of 3 percentage points

Wisconsin labor force: historic and projected

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April 22, 2009

NO NEED TO POSTPONE SUCCESSION PLANSIT IS ALREADY HAPPENING

Source: Bureau of the Census, OEA

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Mill

ion

s Civ. non-insti PopLabor force


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April 22, 2009

QUALITY

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April 22, 2009

Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003.

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Routine manual

Nonroutine analytic.

Nonroutine interactive

WORKPLACE REQUIREMENTSCHANGES IN SKILLS USED AT WORK*

Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University

* Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles

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April 22, 2009

EDUCATION INCLINATIONGAINS LIMITED AT BEST

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April 22, 2009

Entry level jobs with family supporting wages and advancement opportunities require same knowledge foundation and skill set as those entering post-secondary education.

• Advanced reading

• Advanced writing

• Advanced mathematics (Algebra II)

Fastest growing occupations earning greater than $30,000 per year, require some post-secondary education.

EQUAL SKILLS NOW REQUIREDNO TWO-TRACKING

Source: Achieve, Inc, OEA.


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April 22, 2009

ACHIEVEMENT GAPESTABLISHED EARLY

Source: Prof. James Heckman, Nobel Laureate, University of Chicago


WorkforceWorkforce

April 22, 2009

ACHIEVEMENT GAPDEPENDENT ON THE MOTHER’S EDUCATION

Source: Prof. James Heckman, Nobel Laureate, University of Chicago


WorkforceWorkforce

April 22, 2009

POVERTY v. EDUCATIONUSE THE CORRECT POLICIES

Ed ≠ f (Poverty)

Poverty = f (Education)

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April 22, 2009

HUGE RETURN ON INVESTMENTHIGH/SCOPE PERRY PRESCHOOL

$15,

166

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000

Costs

Benefits

Total return = $258,888; $17.07 per dollar invested: $12.90 to the public, $4.17 to participants

Welfare Education Earnings Taxes paid Crime

(Per participant in 2000 constant dollars discounted 3% annually)

Larry Schweinhart, Larry Schweinhart, High/Scope Educational Research Foundation, High/Scope Educational Research Foundation, www.highscope.orgwww.highscope.org

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April 22, 2009

STATE IMPACTSBENEFICIAL AND PERPETUAL

Benefits vs. Costs

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

$ Yearly Budget Costs

Yearly budget benefits

Graph representative of data portrayed in Enriching Children, Enriching the Nation, Robert Lynch, Economic Policy Institute, 2007.

• Cost bump in 2021 due to higher post-secondary enrollments

• Benefits rise faster after 2021 due to higher earnings of graduates

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April 22, 2009

Asked what he admires most in Western counterparts, Jiang Jianqing, chairman of China's largest state bank, ICBC, says,

"Innovation. Americans have an endless passion for it. …. you can't stop it. It's one of the most important ways to push enterprise forward."

WHAT WILL KEEP US IN FRONT ?INNOVATION IS A MUST

Source: Newsweek, Published January 10, 2009, From the magazine issue dated January 19, 2009,http://www.newsweek.com/id/178810?from=rss

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April 22, 2009

Dennis Winters

Phone: 608-267-3262

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov

OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea

CONTACT INFORMATION

Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 WISCONSIN’S FUTURE WORKFORCE AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE...

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