Winning Through Disruption In The Transport Market · Optimized Solutions Increased Share 3x TAM...

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1 | © 2017 Infinera Winning Through Disruption In The Transport Market Investor Overview August 2017

Transcript of Winning Through Disruption In The Transport Market · Optimized Solutions Increased Share 3x TAM...

Page 1: Winning Through Disruption In The Transport Market · Optimized Solutions Increased Share 3x TAM Expansion 2016 LH/Subsea Only = ~$4B 2016 Overall = ~$9B 2020 Overall = ~$ 13B China

1 | © 2017 Infinera

Winning Through Disruption In The

Transport Market

Investor Overview

August 2017

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2 | © 2017 Infinera

This presentation contains "forward-looking" statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. If the risks or uncertainties ever

materialize or the assumptions prove incorrect, our results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking

statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact could be deemed forward-looking, including, but not limited to, any

statements about future market and financial performance and similar statements; statement regarding future products or technology as well as

the timing to market of any such products or technology; any statements about historical results that may suggest trends for our business; any

statements of the plans, strategies, and objectives of management for future operations; any statements of expectation or belief regarding future

events, potential markets or market size, technology and product developments, or enforceability of our intellectual property rights; statements

regarding our second quarter outlook; and any statements of assumptions underlying any of the items mentioned.

These statements are based on estimates and information available to us at the time of this presentation and are not guarantees of future

performance. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, delays in the release of new products or updates to existing products

and market acceptance of these products; customer consolidation; fluctuations in customer demand, changes in industry trends, and changes in

the macroeconomic market; the risks of competitive responses and shifts in the market; the effect that changes in product pricing or mix, and/or

increases in component costs could have on our gross margin; our ability to respond to rapid technological changes; aggressive business tactics by

our competitors; our reliance on single and limited source suppliers; our ability to protect our intellectual property; claims by others that we

infringe their intellectual property; war, terrorism, public health issues, natural disasters and other circumstances that could disrupt the supply,

deli e y o de a d of I fi e a s p odu ts; a d othe isks a d u e tai ties detailed i ou SEC fili gs f o ti e to ti e. More information on

pote tial fa to s that ay i pa t ou usi ess a e set fo th i I fi e a s Qua te ly Repo t o Fo -Q for the fiscal quarter ended on July 1,

2017 as filed with the SEC on August 8, 2017, as well as subsequent reports filed with or furnished to the SEC from time to time. Our SEC filings

are available on our website at www.infinera.com a d the SEC s e site at www.sec.gov. Forward-looking statements are subject to change, and

we may not inform you when changes occur. We assume no obligation to, and do not currently intend to, update any such forward-looking

statements.

Safe Harbor

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3 | © 2017 Infinera

Optical Transport – Where it Plays in the Network

Routing:

Routers interconnect over transport systems Core Routers

Edge Routers

Metro Transport

Long-haul Transport

DCI Transport

Switching:

Optical Transport:

DC Edge Router Spine Switch

Leaf

Switch

DCI Transport

DC Edge Router Spine Switch

Leaf

Switch

DCI Transport

Data Center #2 Data Center #1

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4 | © 2017 Infinera

Optical Transport Industry Overview

Systems Vendors Components Vendors

Systems vendors typically buy optics from third parties and may in- or outsource DSPs.

Infinera predominantly makes and designs its components in-house.

Infinera disrupts the traditional optical model

Optics:

Coherent DSPs:

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5 | © 2017 Infinera

Technology Leadership Infinera Uniquely Delivers Massive Scale

The Infinera Approach Conventional Approach

Electronics/ ASICs

Intelligent software

Photonic integrated circuits Coherent optical engine

Vertically Integrated

Vertically Integrated

Moore’s Law-like for Optical

I dustr s o l large-scale photonic integrated circuit

Significant Barriers to Entry

• Hundreds of millions of dollars spent over the years to build indium phosphide PIC factory

• 15+ years of experience

• More than 450 patents covering IP

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6 | © 2017 Infinera

The most vertically integrated optical transport systems company

• Unique technology innovation with PIC

• Vertical integration drives superb reliability and

differentiated cost structure

• Best-in-class systems with automation,

convergence and scalability

Industry-leading global service and support

Right tools for right job

Focused on customer success

Infinera: A Differentiated Optical Systems Company

Enabling An Infinite Pool of Intelligent Bandwidth

Cloud Xpress DTN-X

XTC Series

Photonic Integrated Circuit

(PIC)

XT-500

XTM/XTG Series

Cloud Xpress 2

FlexCoherent®

Electronics

XT-3600

XT-3300

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7 | © 2017 Infinera

An End-to-End Portfolio to Serve an

Expanding Market

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8 | © 2017 Infinera

Long-haul: I fi e a s He itage

* Dell O o DWDM Lo g-haul Reports

2005: Shipped 10G PIC-based DTN, rapidly reaches $100M

2007: 10G wave market leader (47%)*, completed IPO

2000: Infinera founded, promises to do the impossible: PICs

2004: Introduced i dustr s first large-scale PIC

2008: #1 market share in NA Long-haul*

2010: Leapfrogs 40G, invests in 100G

2012: Shipped 500G PIC-based DTN-X

… 2000 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 … … …

DTN-X Fuels I fi era s Gro th

2012-2015 Revenue CAGR

Infinera: 26%

Worldwide Long-haul: 8%**

**A e age of p oje tio s f o Dell O o, O u , IHS

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9 | © 2017 Infinera

Long-haul: Established Leader

* Based o a e age last ua te s of epo ts f o Dell O o, O u , IHS

Long-haul Market Leadership*

#2 North America, #5 worldwide

Market Share: ~30% North America; ~10% Worldwide

XTC Series

XT-500

XT-3600

XT-3300

Technological Differentiation

Operational simplicity

Terabit-class PIC-enabled scalability

Sliceable photonics

Power/space network efficiency

XT Series

DTN-X Family

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Portfolio Expansion Increases ex-China TAM

Long-haul & Subsea Compact DCI Metro

Aggregation1

2016

TAM ($M) $4.3B $0.1B $4.5B

2021

TAM ($M) $5.0B $1.4B $6.3B

5-yr CAGR 3% 66% 7%

Source: Ovum ON Forecast Spreadsheet: 2016-21; Market share excludes China;

Optimized Solutions

Increased Share

3x TAM Expansion

2016 LH/Subsea Only = ~$4B

2016 Overall = ~$9B

2020 Overall = ~$13B

China market not accessible

• China 2016 TAM: $3.0B

• China 2021 TAM: $4.1B

Expansion into Metro and DCI

significantly increases TAM

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11 | © 2017 Infinera

DCI: Cloud Architecture Drives Network Demands

sources: google.com, facebook.com

Search Query

930x Network Traffic

Cloud Data Center Network

1500 Miles

HTTP request

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Cloud Xpress Cloud Xpress 2

DCI: Infinera Cloud Xpress Family

500 Gb/s super-channel line

10/40/100 GbE clients

Hyperscale Density Simple Operation Low Power Automation Built-in Security Instant Bandwidth

1.2 Tb/s super-channel line in 1RU

100 GbE clients

16QAM

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1G to 100G packet-optical

100G at Layer 1 and Layer 2 P-OTS

16QAM applications with XT-3300 and XT-3600

Multi-service, access to core

Low power and latency, high-density design

Metro: Solutions From Core To Access

Cloud Xpress Family

XTC-2/2E

Building a differentiated portfolio from core to access

XTM/XTG Series

XT-3600

XT-3300

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Metro: A Significant Growth Opportunity

• Strong customer base and reputation in metro edge/access

• Power-efficient and purpose-built products

• Early technology leadership in emerging applications like mobile fronthaul and Remote PHY

Differentiated Approach

• High-capacity solutions for metro core upgrades to 100G

• Over time, lowers cost structure and enhances technology differentiation

Vertical Integration

• Long-haul customer base upgrading to 100G metro

• Strong presence in metro-heavy cable vertical Customer Base

Infinera Current Metro Market Share: 3% Worldwide*

Significant opportunities to grow! *A e age of latest p oje tio s f o O u , IHS, Dell O o a d ACG

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15 | © 2017 Infinera

Instant Network: The Next Generation of Software Defined Capacity (SDC) for Cloud Scale Networks

Instant Network - Leading the Way to Cognitive Networking

Reduce OpEx • Fewer truck rolls, automate LSO

Accelerate Service Delivery • Respond quickly to new service demands

Increase Service Reliability • Reduce human touchpoints

Reduce Idle CapEx

• As much as 50% of capacity idle

• Lower initial CapEx by activating SDC when revenue-generating services demand it

• Reduce business risk by shrinking time between paying for capacity and activating services

Instant

Network

Benefits

Cognitive Networking Instant Network Instant Bandwidth

Infinera DNA Software and Xceed Software Suite Microservices Architecture Open Software and SDN APIs

Software Foundation:

Industry-leading Photonics - 500G PIC, 2.4T Infinite Capacity Engine Integrated and Disaggregated Architecture Massive Pre-deployed Capacity, Sliceable

Hardware Foundation: So

ftw

are

De

fin

ed

Ca

pa

city

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Infinera Unified End-to-end Portfolio

XTM Series DTN-X Family: XTC Series

Cloud Xpress Family DTN-X Family: XT /S Series

XTG Series

XTC-10

XTC-4 XTC-

2E XTC-2 TM-3000

TM-301 TM-102 EDU NID

CX CX2 XT-500 XT/S-3300 XT/S-3600

DC INTERCONNECT

LONG-HAUL / SUBSEA METRO ACCESS AGGREGATION REGIONAL CORE

INFINERA XCEED SOFTWARE SUITE AND DNA

Mobile Front/Backhaul

Triple Play

Cable Broadband

Business Ethernet

Data Center

INFINERA OPEN FLEXIBLE GRID LINE SYSTEM

Transport Market: $15 billion market by 2020*

*A e age of latest p oje tio s f o O u , IHS, Dell O o a d ACG

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17 | © 2017 Infinera

Market Expansion

Bandwidth Explosion and Evolving Network

Architectures Create Opportunities

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18 | © 2017 Infinera

Explosion Of Bandwidth-hungry Applications And Devices

Infinera well-positioned to address bandwidth explosion

*Source: TeleGeography Global Bandwidth Forecast Q3 2016

Video

Cloud

Mobility

IoT

By the end of the decade*

Mobility 11.6B devices

Traffic >30 exabytes/month

Video 80% global internet usage = video

11x more mobile video traffic than 2015

Cloud Public cloud services: 19.4% CAGR from 2015

to $141B (2019)

Internet of Things

> 24B networked devices

42.5 Mb/s avg fixed broadband speed, 2x 2014

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19 | © 2017 Infinera

The Dismantling of Status Quo Networks is Underway

Transport Becomes

More Capable with

More Intelligence

Intelligent Transport shifting $$ away from Routing

Pressure to break

Proprietary OS, Slow

Innovation

Routing

(L3)

Transport

(L0-L2)

Routers need transport systems to connect

X X

X

X X

NFV/Software pressuring traditional router infrastructure

Intelligent Transport increasingly capable of substituting for many router functions

LAYER T

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20 | © 2017 Infinera

Network Transformation: The New Layers T and C

Open packet optical, move bits DC-DC, DC-user

Every possible network function runs in cloud

Layer T: Intelligent Transport

New Model

NFV Apps

SDN Control

Layer C: Cloud Services

Firewall

SBC

B-RAS

CPE

Packet

OTN

WDM

L0 – L3

L3 – L7

Old Model

Open APIs

Appliance per Function,

Rigid, $$$, Closed

Shared Infrastructure,

Agile, Open, $

LAYER C

LAYER T

Layer T powers hyperscale cloud networks – positive for Infinera

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0

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350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tb/s

DCI and Long-haul: Layer T Traffic Patterns Changing

Private: 70% CAGR Mostly DC to DC

Internet: 21% CAGR Mostly user to content

Trans-Atlantic Bandwidth Mix Source: Telegeography

100G Services are Surging Source: Ovum

100G: 75% CAGR

10G: 16% CAGR

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22 | © 2017 Infinera

Hyperscalers Increasingly Dominate Cloud Services

Sou e: Cloud a ket sha e f o UBS epo t, /9/ , Is the Sky the Li it fo Cloud Co puti g

Top Four Providers: 77% Market Share by 2020

31% 35%48%

55%62%

68%74% 77%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

$-

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

$80.0

$100.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

IaaS + PaaS Estimated Revenue

Amazon Microsoft

Google IBM

Big 4 Combined Mkt Share%

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23 | © 2017 Infinera

Packet-Optical Requirements

Ethernet Services

Low Latency

Superior Sync

Low Space and Power

Hardened Systems

Metro: Layer T Architectural Shift, Fiber Deeper Into Metro

100G Mobile Backhaul

Mobile Fronthaul BBU Fiber to the tower

Fiber-deep Opportunity

Fiber to the business

CPE

CPE

Metro Biz Services

100G Backhaul

Deep fiber

access

B ast

CCAP Fiber to the node

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24 | © 2017 Infinera

From 4G to 5G – What Can We Expect?

• Bandwidth 50x over 3G

• 10 ms latency

• Fiber MFH w/CPRI emerges

• Ethernet Backhaul

• Central RAN emerges

• Early open environment

• 1000x bandwidth per unit area

• New apps/MEC - 1 ms latency

• Fiber everywhere possible, MFH

and MBH merge

• Cloud RAN pervasive

• Fully open and RAN vendor-

agnostic

4G 5G

2008: LTE

(R8)

2020: 5G 2013: LTE-A (R10/R11) 2016: LTE-A (R13)

Industry

expects 4G

co-existence as

5G emerges

Ba d idth e plosio further de sifies the et ork, creati g sig ifica t opportu ities

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25 | © 2017 Infinera

Market Expansion

How Infinera Wins

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26 | © 2017 Infinera

I fi e a s Jou ey – Seizing and Creating Market Inflections

* Dell O o DWDM Lo g-haul Reports

2005: Shipped 10G PIC-based DTN, rapidly reaches $100M

2007: 10G wave market leader (47%)*, completed IPO

2000: Infinera founded, promises to do the impossible: PICs

2004: Introduced i dustr s first large-scale PIC

2014: Introduced Cloud Xpress for DCI

2015: Infinera enters metro; acquires Transmode

2016: Infinera validates interoperability with white box open line system

2008: #1 market share in NA Long-haul*

2017: Expect to introduce several next-generation products powered by new optical engine

ICE a d deli er upgrades to XTM metro portfolio

2010: Leapfrogs 40G, invests in 100G

2012: Shipped 500G PIC-based DTN-X

… 2000 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 … … …

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27 | © 2017 Infinera

A Significant Market Expansion Opportunity

- Ma ket sizi g ased a e age of latest fo e asts f o IHS, Cig al AI, O u , Dell O o, ACG; Chi a data f o IHS; Co pa t DCI f om Cignal AI

• Prior to 2015, Infinera only addressed the long-haul market (~$3.5B ex-China)

• Expansion into Compact DCI and Metro expands TAM 3x to ~$13B ex-China by 2020

• Infinera well-positioned to outgrow the overall market through 2020

$0

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Millio

ns (IN

FN R

ev

en

ue

)

Bil

lio

ns

(Ma

rke

t S

izin

g)

China

Compact DCI

Metro

Long-haul

INFN CAGR 19%

Market CAGR 7%

INFN Revenue

Expected Overall Market CAGR (2016-2020) = 7%

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28 | © 2017 Infinera

Global, Fast-growing Customer Base

Over 600 customers

spanning six continents

Three of the top four

internet content providers

Majority of large cable operators

in North America and Europe

Leading North America and

pan-European wholesale operators

19 Tier 1 operators globally

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Optical Engines at an Increasing Cadence

Gen3 Engine

Up to 500G

ICE4 Up to 2.4T

Up to 200G/λ

Infinite Capacity Engine Family

2016 2018

ICE6 Up to: 6.4T

Up to 800G/λ

Time

ICE5 Up to 4.8T

Up to 600G/λ

ICE NG In Planning

2020 2012

Ca

pa

city

pe

r m

od

ule

pa

ir

Family of engines: High to low channel count

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30 | © 2017 Infinera

Infinera Leads the Move To OPEN

Ope Dri es Opportu ities

Open ICE - Scalable capacity over any line

system; successful interop testing with

Lumentum OLS

FlexILS - I dust y s ost idely deployed flexible grid open line system

Xceed Software Suite – Transport SDN;

integrating with multiple orchestrators

Collaboration Efforts:

Open APIs and Cloud Automation:

Netconf/YANG, REST, XML, OpenFlow, OVSDB, OpenConfig, gRPC

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31 | © 2017 Infinera

Building Blocks

Markets

Our Strategy: How Infinera Wins

Deliver Differentiated

Next-gen Platforms in 2017

Increase Cadence of Optical Engine

Lead in Open: Open APIs,

Open Line Systems

Disaggregated and Integrated Solutions

Optimized per Customer

Balanced Portfolio – LH/SS/Metro/DCI

(End-to-end)

Grow Faster than the Overall

Optical Market

Help Custo ers Tra sitio to La er T and Win in Their Markets

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32 | © 2017 Infinera

Differentiated Financial Opportunity

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33 | © 2017 Infinera

Gross Margin

Operating Expenses

A Structure to Deliver Differentiated Financials

Structured long-term financial model

High scale integration Unique pricing

structures

Instant Bandwidth

Long-haul

DCI

Metro

Fixed cost leverage

R&D = long-term target 20% of revenue

Success based S&M investment

G&A grows slower than revenue

Financial discipline

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$438

$544

$668

$888 $871

38%

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48% 48%

34%

39%

44%

49%

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FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

$ (

Mil

lio

ns)

Revenue Gross Margin Operating Margin

-9%

1%

8%

13%

6%

Balance sheet as of the end of Q2 ; g oss a gi a d ope ati g a gi a e o -GAAP

Sustai ed Su ess a d a Set a k… Long-term Targets Intact

Q 7 Performance $177 million revenue

40.7% Gross Margin

-12.2% Operating Margin

Solid Balance Sheet $333M cash and investments

$183M net cash (cash and investments less face value of convertible debt)

Q 7 Outlook $190 million revenue +/- $5 million

39% Gross Margin +/- 200 bps

-12% Operating Margin implied

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35 | © 2017 Infinera

Overcoming recent challenges

$245 $259

$186 $181 $176 $177

50% 50% 49%

42% 40% 41%

12% 13%

4%

-9% -11% -12%

-20%

-10%

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40%

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2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

$ (

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lio

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Revenue Gross Margin Operating Margin

Cash includes cash, restricted cash and investments;

Non-GAAP Gross Margin and Non-GAAP Operating Margin;

A reconciliation of the GAAP to non-GAAP measures can be found at www.infinera.com and on the last slide.

Key Challenges

Overexposure to Long-haul

Customer M&A

Subsea Tech Gap

Temporarily hit long-term financial targets

Addressing challenges

Broad Portfolio Refresh in 2017

Faster Technology Cadence

End-to-End Expansion

$333M cash at end of Q2-2017

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36 | © 2017 Infinera

FY17 – Paving the Path to Profitable Growth

Revenue Growth Drivers

Current

Products + XT/S-3300

+ CX2 + XTC-10/4 1.2 Tb/s

+ XT/S-3600

Entering 2018 with a new product portfolio attacking a broad market

Margin Expansion

End of 2016 1H 2017

2H 2017

More purpose-built

products Integration

drives lower costs

Fewer investment

deals

Improving yields

Follow-on IB licenses

Planned expansion of gross margin begins second half of 2017; continues in 2018

Fixed cost leverage as

volumes grow

+ XTM2 400G

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37 | © 2017 Infinera

Long-haul outgrows market; DCI and metro expected to fuel growth and increase as percentage of revenue mix

Growth in All Markets: Building a Diversified Company

2020

Long haul LH/Metro Metro

DCI Subsea Services

Today

Long haul Metro DCI

Subsea Services

LH/metro networks blur between high and low capacity

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Gross Margin: Investments today drive value tomorrow

Q3 GM% midpoint guide 39% +/- 200bps; Low 40s GM% anticipated Q4-17 into early FY18

GM% is non-GAAP

Long-haul Pre-deployment of bandwidth at next-gen pricing

Well-positioned with a strong customer base and growing IB license stream

Metro Investing to earn incumbency

and footprint Market transition from 10G to 100G

packet-optical creates great opportunity

DCI Pricing pressure increasing; bridging key customers to CX-2

Emergence of cloud architectures should drive tremendous growth

Short-term margin impacts Strong return on investment

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Key to Long-Term Differentiation – Cost Structure

ASICs/DSP

Margin

Cost

Margin

Cost

Optics

Margin

Cost

System

Component

manufacturers

Silicon

manufacturers

System

manufacturer

Typical Systems Vendor Cost Structure Infinera Cost Structure

ASICs/DSP

Cost

Cost

PICs

Margin

Cost

System

Vertical

Integration

INFN aspires to achieve a significant gross margin

advantage over closest competitors

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The Futu e is B ight: I fi e a s Ulti ate Oppo tu ity

Long-haul/subsea return to growth; DCI and metro = high-growth opportunities

Photonic integration and pricing strategies enable differentiated cost model

Balancing technology investments with disciplined expense management

Long-term Goals Intact

• Outgrow Market

• 50% Gross Margin

• 15% Operating Margin

Gross margin and operating margin targets are non-GAAP

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Thank You www.infinera.com

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GAAP Reconciliation

Infinera Corporation

GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation

(In millions, except percentages and per share data)

(Unaudited)

Note: Amounts represent the midpoint of the expected range.

Q2'17 Q3'17

Actual Outlook

Reconciliation of Gross Margin:

U.S. GAAP 36.7% 35%

Stock-based compensation 1.2% 1%

Amortization of acquired intangible assets 2.8% 3%

Non-GAAP 40.7% 39%

Reconciliation of Operating Expenses:

U.S. GAAP 108$

Stock-based compensation (11)

Amortization of acquired intangible assets (2)

Non-GAAP 96$

Reconciliation of Operating Margin:

U.S. GAAP (22.9)% (22)%

Stock-based compensation 7.0% 7%

Amortization of acquired intangible assets 3.7% 3%

Non-GAAP (12.2)% (12)%

Net Loss per Common Share:

U.S. GAAP (0.30)$

Stock-based compensation 0.09

Amortization of acquired intangible assets 0.04

Amortization of debt discount 0.02

Income tax effects (0.01)

Non-GAAP (0.16)$