Wind PTC Affirmative

Wind PTC Aff

Georgia Novice Packet

IndexIndex............................................................................................................................................................................................................1 Explanation..................................................................................................................................................................................................2 1ac................................................................................................................................................................................................................3 1ac................................................................................................................................................................................................................4 1ac................................................................................................................................................................................................................5 1ac................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 1ac................................................................................................................................................................................................................7 1ac................................................................................................................................................................................................................8 1ac................................................................................................................................................................................................................9 1ac..............................................................................................................................................................................................................10 1ac..............................................................................................................................................................................................................11 1ac..............................................................................................................................................................................................................12 Inherency US behind...............................................................................................................................................................................13 Inherency current PTC fails....................................................................................................................................................................14 Econ Wind key........................................................................................................................................................................................15 Econ Wind key to jobs............................................................................................................................................................................16 Econ winds key to jobs...........................................................................................................................................................................17 Econ wind solves blackouts....................................................................................................................................................................18 Econ wind good for growth....................................................................................................................................................................19 Warming PTC solves..............................................................................................................................................................................20 Warming wind solves..............................................................................................................................................................................21 Warming human caused..........................................................................................................................................................................22 Warming Now............................................................................................................................................................................................23 Warming kills the Oceans..........................................................................................................................................................................24 Warming hurts Agriculture.........................................................................................................................................................................25 Solvency federal incentives key..............................................................................................................................................................26 Solvency current PTC killing wind.........................................................................................................................................................27 Solvency wind can meet our needs.........................................................................................................................................................28 Solvency A2 intermittency......................................................................................................................................................................29 Solvency A2 wind cant meet energy needs........................................................................................................................................30 Solvency A2 kills birds........................................................................................................................................................................31

1

Wind PTC Aff


ExplanationUp until recently the United States federal government offered a Production Tax Credit for wind energy. This allowed people to deduct the cost of building wind energy turbines and other costs associated with wind energy directly from their taxes. This applied to both businesses and individuals. So, if a wind turbine cost you 2,000 to set up, you could purchase one and then deduct it from your taxes that you owed. This was making wind energy super cheap. However, the tax credit wasnt extended recently. And, more importantly it was never made a PERMANENT thing. This meant that people werent taking advantage of the tax credit out of fear that the law would be reversed and they wouldnt get their tax break. The plan makes the PTC permanent and gives a huge surge to wind energy in the united states. The advantages are all based off of wind energy good [however, they are really just basic renewables good arguments with specific win energy solvency cards]. Advantage one is the economy. This is similar to the RPS competitiveness advantage. It isolates that fossil fuels are bad for US manufacturing and also bad because it risks blackouts which are particularly bad for the economy. A wind PTC would massively increase employment in the US, would create manufacturing gains, and would eliminate blackout threats. The impact is that the US economy is needed to prevent a global nuclear war. Advantage two is global warming. This is probably the advantage most teams expect on this topic. C02 [or carbon dioxide] is released by the burning of fossil fuels in the status quo. Wind energy has zero carbon emissions which means it is uniquely suited to eliminate the pollution of the gas that is causing warming. The impact is extinction of the plant through climatic shifts that makes the world a horrible place to be. There are also some extension cards that discuss all the possible impacts to the agricultural and oceanic impacts of global warming. This is a good aff if you want to give a positive incentive for a particular renewable energy. It allows novices to focus on all the reasons why wind energy is good. I think this is probably the aff that is easiest to understand because it just gives a tax break to anyone who is willing to use wind energy.

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Wind PTC Aff


1acContention 1 is the Status Quo The federal government recently decided to not extend the Production Tax Credit to incentivize wind power in the United States this will decimate the industry and force wind projects overseasGreenDaily, 2008 (Josh Loposer, Breaking WIND: production tax credits are a big freaking deal, June 2, http://www.greendaily.com/2008/06/02/breaking-wind-production-tax-credits-are-a-big-freaking-deal/) You can't be at a wind conference for very long without hearing about PTCs. It's just not possible. Today, I learned exactly how heavily what goes on in congress weighs on renewable energy producers. It might seem kind of boring, but the confusing mass of legislation that's supposed to incentivize the growth of green energy has a way of psyching out investors and killing wind projects. The big news right now is that congress dropped the ball. In particular, the House can't seem to agree on the terms of an extension for the tax credits -- so, there will probably be a lapse between this year's tax credits and when 2009's kick in. According to DOE Assistant Secretary Alexander Karsner, there's always a drop in wind investments when there's a lapse. That means contracts get put on hold or canceled -- and green energy goes bust. He seemed plenty pissed off about it. A lot of the harumphing that went on at the press conference this afternoon calls for the Feds need to get a consistent policy together that doesn't jerk around developers and screw up progress. Basically, the whole system works backwards. The current business model involves using the tax credits to encourage developers to build a wind farm, then sell the energy, and then make use of the tax credits. When they don't get renewed, building slows down big time. Production tax credits are awarded to energy producers by kWh, but they dictate the progress of the entire wind industry. Developers don't order turbines when they don't get a tax break, because their profits aren't looking as good. That affects GE, Vestas and so forth. According to Vic Abate -- GE's Vice President of renewable energy -- that sends projects elsewhere, like Canada or Europe -- where they can get more bang for the buck.

This is the single biggest barrier to the expansion of wind powerHalverson, 2005 (Matthew, Blowing It, Electrical Construction and Maintenance, January, www.ecm.com) On Oct. 4, 2004, the members of the wind energy industry breathed a collective sigh of relief that could have fueled an entire farm of turbines for a day. After more than nine months of waiting, they got their wish when President Bush signed a 15-month extension of the energy production tax credit (PTC). The PTC expired for the third time in five years on Dec. 31, 2003, and as in previous years its absence had virtually shut down wind farm construction for the first three quarters of 2004. Its renewal, however, assured contractors, design firms, manufacturers, and industry activists that a turnaround would follow this year. Arguably the single-most important factor promoting the growth of the wind energy market, the PTC provides a 1.8-cent/kWh credit for developers and owners of large-capacity wind farms. However, there's a catch: construction must be completed before the PTC expires for a project to be eligible. Although significant technological advances throughout the last decade have brought down the capital costs of wind energy, it has trouble competing with fossil fuels, making the tax incentive a must-have to get most large projects off the ground. And the wind energy market's movements over the last five years bear out that fact. When the PTC lapsed in 2000, 2002, and 2004, 43MW, 410MW, and 480MW of capacity were installed, respectively (Table on page 34). Installed capacity reached about 1,700MW in 2001 and 2003 when it was in effect, and predictions for 2005 range anywhere from 1,400MW to 2,500MW. The statistics show the PTC's intermittency is almost single-handedly responsible for that boom-bust cycle, and many believe wind would account for a much larger portion of the nation's energy supply had a consistent policy been in place. By the end of 2004, U.S. wind capacity had reached almost 6,800MW--about 1% of the nation's total. Given the flurry of activity that has followed previous extensions and the fact that the credit will expire again at the end of 2005, the wind market is poised for a busy year, but experts worry that the market will struggle to gain a good footing without a stable PTC.

PLAN The United States federal government should enact a permanent extension of the Production Tax Credit.

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Wind PTC Aff


1acCONTENTION TWO HARMS ADVANTAGE ONE the economy The latest job market report has crushed consumer confidence and set the stage for a more serious decline in the economyReuters in 8 (Weak Confidence, Prices Stroke U.S. Stagflation Fears; Housing Worsens. Collapse in Home Prices Accelerates to Record Pace, 2-27-08, Lexis-Nexus Academic) U.S. consumer confidence slumped to its worst in five years this month as a tough job market helped produce the grimmest future outlook in 17 years, while soaring inflation among producers at the year's start stoked fears of stagflation.Bad news also poured in from the beleaguered housing market, other data showed yesterday. The collapse in U.S. home prices accelerated to a record pace in the fourth quarter of 2007, with prices plunging 8.9 per cent last year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. A government report showed U.S. producer prices jumped one per cent in January on rising energy costs and posted the biggest 12-month gain in more than 26 years, which was the last time the U.S. was emerging from a stagflationary period of low growth and high inflation. The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment fell to 75.0 in February, significantly worse than economists' forecasts and its lowest in five years. The Conference Board's expectations index fell to 57.9 - its lowest in 17 years. "It looks like there is no confidence in an economy where inflation is getting out of control," said Andrew Brenner, market analyst at MF Global in New York. "This is a classic stagflation scenario."

It was the biggest monthly drop in the consumer confidence and expectations indexes since September 2005, following Hurricane Katrina. The present situation index saw its biggest tumble since October 2001, the last time the United States was in recession. Sentiment suffered amid a worsening view of the jobs market. The measure of "jobs hard to get" rose to 23.8 in February - its highest since October 2005 - from 20.6 in January. The measure of "jobs plentiful" fell to 20.6 - its lowest since April 2005 - from 23.8. The proportion of respondents identifying jobs as plentiful fell by 3.2 percentage points, the biggest drop in a year and a half. The jobs hard to get response shot up by the most in nearly five years.

In particular, the manufacturing sector is being hit especially hardKennedy and Richter in 7Bloomberg News Staff Writers (*Simon and **Joe, Rising Oil Prices May Tip U.S. Into a Recession, 11-12-07, Bloomberg News, http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/11/bloomberg/bxecon.php) Manufacturers are among the first to feel the pinch: Rising energy prices are increasing their costs, while drooping consumer and business confidence erodes demand. In the United States, the manufacturing index of the Institute for Supply Management fell to a seven-month low in October as gauges of orders and production declined. Caterpillar, based in Illinois, the biggest maker of bulldozers and excavators, cut its profit forecast last month and said the U.S. economy would be "near to, or even in, recession" in 2008.

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Wind PTC Aff


1acThe lack of federal policy cripples wind energy growth and raises the risk of price shocks and blackoutsReal de Azua in 1--Communications Coordinator and International Policy Analyst, AmericanWind Energy Association (Christine, Tulane Environmental Law Journal, The Future of Wind Energy, Summer 2001, Lexis Nexis)From time to time, energy crises draw the nation's attention. The power crisis in California in late 2000 and early 2001 is the most recent example. The 2000-2001 crisis has focused public attention on, among other

The United States wind energy industry argues that investments in wind energy in areas with a significant wind resource can help prevent future shortages of electricity in California and elsewhere without additional long-term cost, pollution, or delay. 2 Wind energy has matured and surpasses traditional sources of power on many technological counts. 3 Wind is now the fastest growing commercial scale energy technology in the world. 4 In 1999, wind energy surpassed nuclear energy worldwide in new generating capacity installed. 5 However, wind energy generates only a minute fraction of the world's, and less than 1% of U.S., electricity. 6 This Essay examines the policies that have shaped the development of wind power in the United States. It argues that for wind energy to play a more significant role in the nation's energy portfolio, policies overwhelmingly aimed at fostering the development of conventional technologies, now outweighed by compelling public interests, should be overhauled to favor the development of cleaner and more reliable technologies such as wind energy.issues, the role of wind energy and other renewables as a source of clean, affordable power. 1 In addition, it has been shown that the public favors such a realignment of energy policy priorities. 7 For example, in its [*487] Thanksgiving 2000 Sunday edition, the New York Times ran a front page article entitled Curse of the Wind Turns to Farmer's Blessing. 8 A brilliant color photograph showed a young farmer half-kneeling amid corn stubble in a snow-covered field with high-tech wind turbines behind him wringing electricity from the bitter winter winds. 9 The farmer, Conrad Schardin, paid off family debts thanks to the revenue he earned for hosting the new, high-tech turbines, while continuing his traditional farming operations. 10

The article illustrates the promise of wind energy in America today: wind energy is revitalizing the economy of rural communities from Lake Benton, Minnesota to Garrett, Pennsylvania and McCamey, Texas, by blowing cash into farmers' pockets; it can serve as a buffer for consumers and utilities against volatile natural gas and oil prices; and it responds to a preference of the U.S. public for clean energy over conventional sources.

Blackouts grind the economy to a halt.Reuters, 7 (Timothy Gardner, Business Books: Strain on U.S. grid to make blackouts common, 7-16-2007, http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN0718520720070616?pageNumber=2&sp=true) Most people in the United States only think about where electricity comes from when the lights go out suddenly. But unless the antiquated transmission grid is fixed, expensive blackouts that bring modern life to a grinding halt will become ever more common, according to "Lights Out" (Wiley, $27.95), a new book by Jason Makansi. Before the 1980s, power generating companies were responsible for the entire chain of supply, from securing fuel to transmitting power to homes. Deregulation, meant to increase competition, has busted that chain apart and left the wires and substations that deliver electricity as a "neglected stepchild," Makansi writes. As demand for electricity rises, especially in the hot summer months when air conditioners are humming, the result is an overstretched grid, exploding transformers, brownouts and blackouts. Transmission only accounts for about 10 percent of the industry's assets, and for decades utilities and regulators have focused on more expensive parts of the system. Now, even electricity generated in ultramodern plants is dependent on the brittle transmission grid. "Imagine driving a Maserati over a road littered with potholes," Makansi writes.

Even without blackouts, power outages cause a continual and significant drag on the economyIEEE, 7 (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc, Reliability and Blackouts, 4-25-2007+, http://www.electripedia.info/reliability.asp) // SM Preventing outages and blackouts is of utmost concern to the nation and the world. Some estimates claim that the costs of electric power outages are $26 billion each year in the US alone and have been increasing as the electric power industry is restructured [2]. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) estimates that power outages and insufficient power quality cost the US economy over $119 billion per year [2, 5]. Not enough effort is put towards ensuring reliability; some argue that US electric reliability improvements have lagged behind other improvements, such as efficiency and conservation, and this lagging has compounded the occurrence of blackouts [6].

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Wind PTC Aff


1acDespite intermittency, wind energy solves for grid overstretch and blackouts, and cushions the impact of price spikesWorld Watch Institute and Center for American Progress in 6 (American Energy Now, The Renewable Path to Energy Security, September 2006, http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/AmericanEnergy.pdf, pg.16) All power systems rely on backup generators, since even baseload plants must close occasionally due to technical problems. In the case of intermittent renewables, wind resources can already be forecast at least two days in advance, and fluctuations in power output can be reduced if not eliminated by spreading solar or wind generators across a sufficiently wide region. Studies show that even when wind power alone provides 20 percent of the total electricity on a regional grid as it does in Denmark and large parts of Germanybackup capacity is rarely needed. Above that level, some backup capacity may be required, but at much less than a 1:1 ratio. In the future, new technologies like advanced gas turbines and fuel cells, as well as new storage devices, will likely reduce the cost of providing backup capacity, allowing much higher levels of dependence on intermittent generators. Renewable energy sources also provide grid operators with real economic benefits (in addition to their peaking value) that are just beginning to be recognized. Conventional power plants based on coal and nuclear power can take 515 years to plan and construct, a serious disadvantage given the uncertainties of future power demand and the risks of borrowing hundreds of millions of dollars while the plants are built. Construction lead times for large renewable projects are often in the range of 25 years, reducing the risk to utilities and allowing capacity to be added incrementally to match load growth. According to FPL Energy, it can take as little as 36 months from ground breaking to commercial operation with new wind farms. Once on line, renewable facilities can begin operation more rapidly than conventional power plants after blackouts, reducing associated economic and security costs. At a time when the price of natural gas, the most popular fuel for recently constructed power plants, has increased significantly, renewable power has become a valuable component of a utility power portfolio and a hedge against future fuel-price increases. Wind farms are already competitive with gas and coal, and GE Wind has predicted that wind turbine sales could surpass gas turbine sales within the next few years.

Economic collapse will cause extinction Bearden 00, Director of Association of Distinguished American Scientists[T. E., The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How to Solve It Quickly, Space Energy Access Systems, http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-Bearden.htm]

History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions. Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations, are almost certain to be released. As an example, suppose a starving North Korea launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States attacks Taiwan. In addition to immediate responses, the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore preemptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as rapidly and massively as possible. As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs. Today, a great percent of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed, are already on site within the United States itself. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades.

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Wind PTC Aff


1acADVANTAGE TWO warming Warming is human caused and greenhouse emissions play a critical role Brown, Director and Founder of the global institute of Environment in the U.S., 2008Lester E. Brown, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization]

Scientists at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) gather data from a global network of some 800 climate-monitoring stations to measure changes in the earth's average temperature. Their direct measurements go back to 1880.6 Since 1970, the earth's average temperature has risen by 0.6 degrees Celsius, or 1 degree Fahrenheit. Meteorologists note that the 23 warmest years on record have come since 1980. And the seven warmest years since recordkeeping began in 1880 have come in the last nine years. Four of these-2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006-were years in which major food-producing regions saw their crops wither in the face of record temperatures. The amount of carbon dioxide (C02) in the atmosphere has risen substantially since the start of the Industrial Revolution, growing from 277 parts per million (ppm) to 384 ppm in 2007. The annual rise in the atmospheric C02 level, one of the world's most predictable environmental trends, is the result of the annual discharge into the atmosphere of 7.5 billion tons of carbon from burning fossil fuels and 1.5 billion tons from deforestation. The current annual rise is nearly four times what it was in the 1950s, largely because of increased emissions from burning fossil fuels. As more C02 accumulates in the atmosphere, temperatures go up.

The electricity industry is the biggest source of greenhouse emissions we must target this energy sector to solve warming Casten, 8 President & CEO of Recycled Energy Development, a company dedicated to the profitable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Past President/CEO of Turbosteam Corporation, and 2007 Chair of the US Combined Heat & Power Association(Sean, Beyond coal, 6/5/08, http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/4/123223/5089)

The Electric Sector's Role in Greenhouse Gas Emissions In the United States, coal is primarily a power plant fuel, and the electricity sector is our single biggest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As a result, any discussion of greenhouse gas reduction must confront coal-based electricity. Figure 1 shows total US greenhouse gas emissions bysector, and Figure 2 shows how the electric sector has steadily increased its share thereof. The trends seen in Figure 2 reflect our nation's steady and inexorable electrification -- first as we switched from candles to electric light, then as we shifted away from mechanical power, then later as waves of computerization and air conditioning enabled great leaps in our national standard of living. As we now shift from a manufacturing- to a service-intensive economy, this

trend will undoubtedly continue -- and so we will increasingly find that efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions must focus on our electric sector. For rather perverse reasons, this is good news. The electric sector today is only half as fuel efficient as it was in 1910, implying that wecould cut CO2 emission from the electric sector in half and lower electricity costs simply by deploying century-old technologies and regulatory models.

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Wind PTC Aff


1acWe must act now delaying even a year will make solving warming impossible Hansen, head of NASA Goddard Institute and professor of Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, 2008(James E. Hanson. Head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City and adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at Columbia University. Al Gores science advisor. Briefing before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, US House of Representatives. Twenty years later: tipping points near on global warming. June 23, 2008. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TwentyYearsLater_20080623.pdf) The difference is that now president and Congress dangerous situation.

we have used up all slack in the schedule for actions needed to defuse the global warming time bomb. The next must define a course next year in which the United States exerts leadership commensurate with our responsibility for the present

Otherwise it will become impractical to constrain atmospheric carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas produced in burning fossil fuels, to a level that prevents the climate system from passing tipping points that lead to disastrous climate changes that spiral dynamically out of humanity's control. Changes needed to preserve creation, the planet on which civilisation developed, are clear. But the changes have been blocked by special interests, focused on short-termprofits, who hold sway in Washington and other capitals. I argue that a

path yielding energy independence and a healthier environment is, barely, still possible. It requires a transformative change of direction in Washington in the next year.On 23 June 1988 I testified to a hearing, chaired by Senator Tim Wirth of Colorado, that the Earth had entered a long-term warming trend and that human-made greenhouse gases almost surely were responsible. I noted that global warming enhanced both extremes of the water cycle, meaning stronger droughts and forest fires, on the one hand, but also heavier rains and floods. My testimony two decades ago was greeted with scepticism. But while scepticism is the lifeblood of science, it can confuse the public. As scientists examine a topic from all perspectives, it may appear that nothing is known with confidence. But from such broad open-minded study of all data, valid conclusions can be drawn. My conclusions in 1988 were built on a wide range of inputs from basic physics, planetary studies, observations of on-going changes, and climate models. The evidence was strong enough that I could say it was time to "stop waffling". I was sure that time would bring the scientific community to a similar consensus, as it has. While international recognition of global warming was swift, actions have faltered. The US refused to place limits on its emissions, and developing countries such as China and India rapidly increased their emissions. What is at stake? Warming so far, about 2F over land areas, seems almost innocuous, being less than day-to-day weather fluctuations. But more

warming is already "in-thepipeline", delayed only by the great inertia of the world ocean. And climate is nearing dangerous tipping points. Elements of a "perfect storm", a global cataclysm, are assembled.Climate can reach points such that amplifying feedbacks spur large rapid changes. Arctic sea ice is a current example. Global warming initiated sea ice melt, exposing darker ocean that absorbs more sunlight, melting more ice. As a result, without any additional greenhouse gases, the Arctic soon will be ice-free in the summer. More ominous tipping points loom. West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are vulnerable to even small additional warming. These two-mile-thick behemoths respond slowly at first, but if disintegration gets well underway it will become unstoppable. Debate among scientists is only about how much sea level would rise by a given date. In my opinion, if emissions

follow a business-as-usual scenario, sea level rise of at least two meters is likely this century. Hundreds of millions of people would become refugees. No stable shoreline would be reestablished in any time frame that humanity can conceive.

Climate Change is the greatest threat to human survival. Far more likely to cause extinction than nuclear war because nuclear weapons have become more about precision than magnitude The New York End Times 2006(The New York End Times is a non-partisan, non-religious, non-ideological, free news filter. We monitor world trends and events as they pertain to two vital threats - war and extinction. We use a proprietary methodology to quantify movements between the extremes of war and peace, harmony and extinction. http://newyorkendtimes.com/extinctionscale.asp)

We rate Global Climate Change as a greater threat for human extinction in this century. Most scientists forecast disruptions and dislocations, if current trends persist. The extinction danger is more likely if we alter an environmental process that causes harmful effects and leads to conditions that make the planet uninhabitable to humans. Considering that there is so much that is unknown about global systems, we consider climate change to be the greatest danger to human extinction. However, there is no evidence of imminent danger. Nuclear war at some point in this century might happen. It is unlikely to cause human extinction though. While several countries have nuclear weapons, there are few with the firepower to annihilate the world. For those nations it would be suicidal to exercise that option. The pattern is that the more destructive technology a nation has, the more it tends towards rational behavior. Sophisticated precision weapons then become better tactical options. The bigger danger comes from nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists with the help of a rogue state, such as North Korea. The size of such an explosion would not be sufficient to threaten humanity as a whole. Instead it could trigger a major war or even world war. Under this scenario human extinction would only be possible if other threats were present, such as disease and climate change. We monitor war separately. However we also need to incorporate the dangers here.

8

Wind PTC Aff


1acExpanding wind power solvesAWEA 7.(American Wind Energy Association, A proposal for a strategic initiative, http://www.awea.org/policy/ccwp.html, 7/6/07) Executive Summary The United States faces a formidable challenge in seeking to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2010. Current projections indicate that it will fall far short, with emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the electric utility sector alone exceeding 1990 levels by more than half a billion metric tons. Wind energy is a clean, abundant U.S. resource that produces electricity with virtually no CO2 emissions. Given strong policy support, the wind industry can ramp up production rapidly and can, through displacing emissions from coal, make a significant contribution toward helping the utility sector meet its share of the 2010 objective. The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) estimates that U.S. installed wind capacity can reach 30,000 megawatts (MW) in 2010 (compared to just 1,700 MW today), generating 105 billion kWh annually. This is enough electricity to meet the needs of more than 10 million homes, and to displace 100 million metric tons of CO2, or 18% of the utility sector's excess emissions.

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Wind PTC Aff


1acCONTENTION THREE solvency PTC is necessary to boost renewables manufacturing, investment, and employmentnow is the key time for longterm extensionClayton in 8 (Mark, Christian Science Monitor, Wind, Solar Tax Credits to Expire, 01-22-08, http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/01/22/wind-solar-tax-credits-to-expire/) With a big new solar power plant in the Nevada desert and thousands of wind turbines sprouting nationwide, US renewable energy seems poised for a boom as long as federal tax credits dont suddenly evaporate. After years of start-and-stop growth, wind-and solar- power industries soared in 2007, thanks to three consecutive years of tax credits that provided a critical lift for both sectors. But whether the fledgling industries can fly without tax credits, due to expire at the end of this year, is a question being debated on Capitol Hill this week. As demand grows for a stimulus package for the faltering US economy, green-energy advocates argue that wind and solar both left out of the new energy law passed last month should be part of the package. The wind and solar investment project decisions made in this quarter will be halted without these critical tax credits, says Anna Aurilio, federal legislative director for US Public Interest Research Group in Washington. It would be a tragedy to bypass industries that are going to meet US energy needs and create jobs. The 2005 energy bill provided exactly the kind of multiyear support the wind industry says it needs. The impact has been dramatic. Nearly one-third of all US power capacity added last year about 5,244 megawatts was in wind. Overall wind-generating capacity soared 45 percent last year, adding the clean-energy equivalent of 10 large coal-fired power plants, the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) reported last week. Wind power injected $9 billion into the US economy and now employs 20,000 people directly, the industry says. Plans for at least eight new US wind-power manufacturing plants employing 5,000 workers were announced last year, AWEA officials say. This is a critical time for extending the production tax credit for wind, says Joshua Magee, research director for wind energy at Emerging Energy Research, a Boston-based research firm. If we move into 2009 and it hasnt been extended, new orders will shrink and it will be a major blow to these new US [wind] manufacturing, investment, and jobs across many states.

Federal leadership is critical to access investor perception our evidence is comparative to state policies Sibelius 8, Governor of Kansas(Kathleen, SEBELIUS PROMOTES KANSAS AT NATIONAL WIND POWER CONFERENCE; GOVERNOR HIGHLIGHTS STRONG BUSINESS CLIMATE AND POPULARITY OF KANSAS WIND, States News Service, June 2nd, L/n, rday)

"The mood of the heartland is changing and Kansans want a comprehensive energy strategy which includes maximizing our wind resources. "Weave also concentrated on creating a business climate suitable to industry growth and expansion. "Weave eliminated the taxes on new business machinery and equipment. "Weave eliminated the Franchise Tax for approximately 16,000 small businesses by raising the net worth exemption to one million dollars. "Weave reduced unemployment insurance taxes for employers by $80 million, and have one of the lowest workersa compensation rates in the country. "Weave got a great business climate and people are noticing. "For the third straight year, Area Development magazine has named Kansas the winner of the Silver Shovel Award for job creation and capital investment. "Pollina Corporate Real Estate named Kansas a Top 10 pro-business state and Site Selection magazine named Kansas a Top 10 state in its annual Competiveness Awards.

"But even with positive business climates in states like Kansas, there is a lot that the Federal Government can do to ensure the wind industry thrives nation wide. "We need our leaders in Congress and in the White House to make renewable energy a priority. "The Department of Energy' goal for 20 percent wind power by 2030 is a step in the right direction - but the timetable should be significantly accelerated. "Congress must renew the Production Tax Credits AND make it clear to investors that this incentive will last for several years. "The market will work effectively and competitively as long as investors know their long-term investments are prudent. "Transmission lines and wind farms take years to develop and single-year credits send the wrong signal about our commitment to diversifying America' long-term energy portfolio."A national RPS would help to give clear policy guidelines to the financial community, allowing market investments to flourish. "Creating a patchwork of regulatory interventions on a state-by-state basis is not a good approach to the national challenge of reducing green house gas emissions. "To reduce pollution and increase wind energy, we need clear federal rules about the cost of CO2. "And, we need to make sure that any charge for CO2 emissions is invested in research and production of cleaner alternative energy sources, like wind.

"While states have made great strides, we need clear leadership at the federal level with a commitment to stepping up our development of our alternative energy resources.

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Wind PTC Aff


1acPTC non-renewal destroys the wind industry a long-term extension of the PTC would revive the domestic wind sector this evidence is comparative and surveys industry leaders Dr. Wiser, 2007 Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Electricity Markets and Policy Group scientist(Ryan, Wind Power and the Production Tax Credit: An Overview of Research Results, Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on Clean Energy: From the Margins to the Mainstream, Senate Finance Committee, March 29, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/wiser-senate-test-4-07.pdf)

Impact of the PTC on Wind Power Development to Date

The PTC reduces the cost of wind power by roughly one-third (~ 2 cents/kWh), thereby making wind more attractive to electric utilities and other investors. In fact, with the PTC, wind power is now economically attractive in some regions of the country relative to more-conventional electricity sources. The PTC, coupled with the rising cost of conventional fuels, R&D advances, and a variety of state policies, has stimulated significant growth in the use of wind power over the past 10 years, as shown in Figure 3. It is difficult to overstate the importance of the PTC to the wind industry over this timeframe, as well as the negative consequences of PTC expiration for the industry in 2000, 2002, and 2004. In part as a direct result of the PTC, the U.S. has led the world in wind power additions for the last two years, with roughly 16% of theworldwide wind capacity installed in 2006 coming from the United States.Moreover, nearly $4 billion was invested in U.S.-based wind capital additions in 2006 alone. Since the PTC began in 1994, wind plant additions in the U.S. have resulted in an aggregate investment of roughly $13 billion. As shown in Table 2, major state beneficiaries of the PTC are regionally diverse, and include Texas, Washington, California, Iowa, Minnesota, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and New York. A total of 20 states had more than 50 MW of wind power capacity at the end of 2006. As evidence of the importance of the PTC to the U.S. wind sector, wind capacity additions have seen pronounced lulls in 2000, 2002, and 2004 (see Figure 3). In each of these years, the PTC expired for some period of

Though some wind development will surely occur even without the Federal PTC, this historical experience suggests that the PTC, or some alternative policy, is crucial if significant near-term growth of the wind market in desired.time before being subsequently extended.

The Boom-and-Bust Cycle of Development Though the historical impacts of the PTC are well known, somewhat less recognized is the fact that the frequent expiration/extension cycle that we have seen since 1999 has had several negative consequences for the growth of wind power. Due to the series of shorter-term, 1- to 2- year

PTC extensions, growing demand for wind power has been compressed into tight and frenzied windows of development. This has led to boom and bust cycles in renewable energy development, under-investment in manufacturing capacity in the U.S., and variability in equipment and supply costs. Recent work at Berkeley Lab suggests that this boom-and-bust cycle has made the PTC less effective in stimulating low-cost wind development than might be the case if a longer term and more stable policy were established. More specifically, some of the potentially negative impacts of the shorter-term, 1- to 2-year extensions of the PTC on the wind industry are as follows: 1. Slowed Wind Development: Data in Figure 3 demonstrate that the risk of PTC expiration can slow wind development in certain years. Even in years in which the PTC is secure, uncertainty in the future availability of the PTC may undermine rational industry planning, project development, and manufacturing investments, thereby leading to lower levels of new wind project capacity additions. 2. Higher Costs: Wind project costs in the U.S. decreased substantially from the early 1980s to the early 2000s, demonstrating the success of public and private R&D investments and the commercial successof the technology. Since 2002, however, costs have risen. Based on data collected by Berkeley Lab, the average installed cost of wind projects in the U.S. in 2006 was roughly $1,600/kW, up from roughly $1,300/kW in 2002. There is reason to believe that these increased prices have been caused, in part, by the erratic market cycle of frenzied investment alternated with market collapse that has been created by the 1- to 2-year extensions of the PTC in recent years.

3. Greater Reliance on Foreign Manufacturing: Uncertainty in the future scale of the U.S. wind power market has limited the interest of both U.S. and foreign firms in investing in wind turbine and component manufacturing infrastructure in the U.S. Instead, theU.S. remains reliant, to a significant degree, on wind turbines and components manufactured in Europe and, in the future, perhaps China and elsewhere, thereby reducing opportunities to grow the domestic manufacturing sector.

4. Difficult to Rationally Plan Transmission Expansion: Accessing substantial amounts of wind energy will require investments in the transmission grid, and most analysts believethat the U.S. has under-invested in transmission in recent years. Uncertainty in the future of the PTC makes transmission planning for wind particularly challenging because the economic attractiveness of wind projects (and therefore of expanding the transmission system for those projects) hinges in many cases on the PTC. In turn, since transmission projects take many years to plan, permit, finance, and construct, uncertain demand for the line itself may prevent needed transmission projects from taking place.

5. Reduced Private R&D Expenditure: Shorter-term PTC extensions may lower the willingness of private industry to engage and invest in long-term wind technology R&D that is unlikely to pay off within a 1- to 2-year PTC cycle, given uncertainty in the future domestic market demand for those advanced technologies.Potential Benefits of a Longer-Term PTC Extension Recent research at Berkeley Lab and elsewhere has sought to investigate, with more specificity, some of the possible benefits of a longer-term (5-10 year) PTC extension, or other more-stable form of promotional

Preliminary analysis in late 2006 by Berkeley Lab, for example, suggested that a longer-term PTC extension may be able to drive the installed cost of wind down by 5% to more than 15%, relative to a continuation of the present cycle of 1- to 2-year extensions.policy.

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1ac[Continues From Previous Page No Text Removed]More recent analysis of historical wind capital costs also suggests the possibility of a capital cost premium of up to 12% as a result of the present boom-and-bust cycle. Because these initial analyses were crude, and the resulting estimates uncertain, we also sought to confirm the results through a survey of wind industry members. Through the survey, we also hoped to develop a better understanding of some of the specific benefits of a longer-term PTC extension (or alternative policies that would bring more long-term certainty to the industry). Importantly, this was an industry survey, and did not seek to address other relevant perspectives on the benefits and drawbacks of longer-term PTC renewal. I therefore encourage you to think of the results as useful inputs to policy determination, but by no means a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of such an extension. Survey respondents represent a diverse set of industry stakeholders, including two wind turbine manufacturers, three components suppliers, four developers/O&M providers, and one construction contractor. We may receive more responses in the weeks ahead, so the results presented here should be considered preliminary. Some of the key findings of this work are provided below. Finding #1: The Benefits to the Wind Industry of a 5- to 10-Year PTC Extension Are Expected to be Diverse Survey respondents ranked a number of potential benefits from a 5- to 10-year PTC extension, relative to a continuation of the current 1- to 2-year extension cycle. Respondents were asked to respond to the question from an aggregate industry perspective.

Survey respondents view the most important benefit of a 5- to 10-year PTC extension to be the greater number of wind installations expected to result from that policy stability (Figure 4). Other major benefits include more rational transmission planning, reductions in installed project costs, and enhanced private R&D. Though expectations for reductions in project costs are not surprising, it is interesting to note the perceivedimportance of a 5- to 10-year PTC extension on transmission planning and private R&D investments. Neither of these potential benefits has typically been emphasized in discussions over PTC extension, at least to my knowledge. Finding #2: A 5- to 10-Year PTC Extension May Encourage Growth in Domestic Wind Turbine Manufacturing U.S.-based manufacturing of wind turbines and components remains somewhat limited, in part because of the uncertain availability of the Federal PTC. This is true despite recent announcements and investments to increase local manufacturing of certain components by both domestic and international firms. In 2006, for example, new wind-related manufacturing plants were established in Iowa (Clipper Windpower), Minnesota (Suzlon), and Pennsylvania (Gamesa). And GE Energy, the Nations most prominent wind turbine manufacturer, captured 47% of domestic wind turbine sales in 2006. Industry members were asked to estimate the proportion of U.S. wind project costs currently sourced from or manufactured in the United States, as well as expected trends in domestic manufacturing in the coming ten years under both an uncertain PTC environment and under a 10-year PTC extension.

directional consistency is clear: a longer-term PTC extension is expected by industry to yield a sizable increase in domestic wind turbine and component manufacturing (Figure 5). Under the present uncertain PTC extension path, domestic manufacturing is expected to remain largely constant over time, and not grow substantially from its current base of roughly 30%. As one point of reference, the nascent wind power market in China has already achieved a 70% local manufacturing share,Though responses show a range of opinions on the magnitude of future domestic manufacturing, with virtually all of the major turbine manufacturers (including GE) making substantial manufacturing investments in that market. A 10-year PTC extension, on the other hand, yields a median expected domestic manufacturing share of over 70%, on par with Chinas current share, bringing with it jobs and local economic development benefits. Finding #3: Installed Cost Reduction Potential Is Significant, at 8% (5-year extension) to 15% (10-year extension), on Average All of the industry stakeholders that responded to the survey agreed that a longer term extension of the PTC could help reduce the installed cost of wind in the United States, but there is some disagreement on the magnitude of those possible cost reductions. Almost universally, survey respondents believe that the potential cost reduction is greater under a 10-year extension than under a 5-year extension. Under a 10-year extension, projected cost reductions range from a low of 5-10% to as high as 20-25%; under a 5-year extension, cost reductions are projected to range from 0-5% to 10-15%. Averaged over all responses, a 5-year extension is projected to yield cost reductions in the 8% (~$135/kW) range, while a 10-year extension may result in ~15% reductions in installed wind project costs (~$255/kW). Other survey results, not presented here, suggest that these savings estimates might be considered a conservative lower bound. Either way, these results are reasonably consistent with those estimated earlier by Berkeley Lab.

Respondents believe that the most important cost-reducing influences that may come from a 5- to 10-year extension include: 1. More efficient labor deployment and greater investment in supply-chain capital; lower risk premiums for capital investment in the supply chain. 2. Enhanced private R&D expenditures that improve wind technology. 3. Cost savings from a de-linking of U.S. prices to the Euro-US dollar exchange rate, due to increased domestic manufacturing. 4. Transportation savings created by increased domestic manufacturing of turbines and components. 5. Reductions in other project development and financing costs that are driven higher by currently rushed development schedules Summary of Findings The findings reported above suggest that the benefits of a longer-term PTC renewal may be significant, and that the benefits of a 10-year extension are likely to be greater than those of a 5- year extension. I want to very clearly acknowledge, however, that these possible benefits must be judgedagainst the costs to the Treasury of a longer-term PTC extension, as well as the alternative uses of the funds required to support such an extension. In addition, it should be understood that the above survey results derive from the views of wind industry participants, who have a natural self-interest in a PTC extension.

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Inherency US behindEven if the US produces the most wind-megawatts, percentage-wise were still behindMoskowitz, 8 (Clara Moskowitz, Staff Writer for Live Science, Science Communication Graduate at University of California, US Takes Global Lead in Wind Energy Production, July 23, 2008) http://www.livescience.com/environment/080723-us-windenergy.html Though we are winning the race in terms of volume of wind energy produced, we are far behind when it comes to the proportion of our total energy we get from wind. While wind currently supplies about 1.2 percent of the United States' power, it accounts for about 7 percent of Germany's total energy consumption. And the even-smaller country of Denmark gets roughly 20 percent of its energy form wind. Most of America's wind power is being collected in Texas (which provides more than 25 percent of the country's wind-generated electricity), the Midwest, and West Coast, Swisher said. The main issue with ramping up our use of wind power is not a lack of wind have you seen how gusty it gets on the plains of Iowa? but a lack of good ways to transport that energy from where it's collected to homes and offices and factories where it will be used. "The major constraint is the transmission infrastructure," Swisher said. "To be able to build more turbines we have to build more transmission lines to carry the electricity from where it's generated to major areas where energy is being used." Though America's wind energy use is certainly ramping up, we still have a ways to go toward harnessing its full potential.

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Inherency current PTC failsExtending the PTC is critical to prevent a massive decrease in wind power and spur long-term investment in the industry UPI, 8 (Megan Harris, United Press International, Analysis: U.S. wind market's mixed signals, 5-6-2008,http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Energy/Analysis/2008/05/06/analysis_us_wind_markets_mixed_signals/3295/) // JMPHANOVER, Germany, May 6 (UPI) -- The wind energy industry is beginning to repower existing turbines for greater efficiency and expanding to offshore locations in Europe, and despite unstable incentives for wind power in the United States, strong For most firms, the

growth potential and the weak dollar are buoying interest in the U.S. market. biggest barrier to the U.S. market is the lack of stable incentives. The Production Tax Credit, which was due to expire at the end of 2007, was renewed in 2006 for one year until the end of 2008. It provides a 2 cent per kilowatt-hour credit toproject developers for the first 10 years of operation but has expired three times since it was first created in 1992.

"If it is allowed to expire, the industry and investors worry that growth will fall off -- although 25 states and the District of Columbia have their ownrenewable electricity standards and that could provide somewhat of a cushion," Aaron Severn, legislative representative for the American Wind Energy Association, told United Press International at the Hanover Innovation Fair from April 21-25. "That's an experiment we don't want to undertake. Very

dramatic decreases in the amount of installed wind energy occurred in the past when the PTC expired. Our member companies say that projects would be put on hold and investment would flow into more stable markets if the PTC is not extended immediately," he said. "Developers want long-term market stability," he added, emphasizing the importance of long-term, robust incentives. Current PTC Policy Creates Uncertainty and Undermines Investor Confidence AP 8 ( Tax credit seen vital for wind industry growth, 6/2/08, http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/printarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20080602&id=8716988)\\TMHOUSTON (AP) - Renewal of federal tax credits expiring at the end of the year is critical to U.S. investment in the wind-energy industry, executives and officials said Monday. Congress is debating whether to renew, and how to pay for, production tax credits that help subsidize the growing industry. The existing subsidy of 2 cents per kilowatt hour for wind developers is set to expire in December, and the uncertainty has prompted some to delay investments beyond 2008, industry executives say. The tax credits were a hot topic at Windpower 2008, a fourday gathering of more than 10,000 policymakers and energy professionals that began Sunday. Vic Abate, vice

president for renewables at GE Energy, an arm of General "We're already starting to see some customers ask, 'If this (credit) doesn't happen, can we put these in Canada or South America,'" Abate said. The credits expired in 1999, 2001 and 2003, and wind-power installation fell significantly in each of the following years, advocates of the tax credits note.Electric Co., said failure to renew the tax credit will almost certainly slow GE's business of supplying turbines to wind farms. Despite the subsidy question, legendary oilman T. Boone Pickens' Mesa Power said last month it ordered 667 wind turbines from GE for a mammoth wind farm in the Texas Panhandle a $2 billion bet on what Pickens hopes will become "the wind capital of the world." The entire project, whose cost could grow to $12 billion, is forecast to be finished in 2014.

Pickens acknowledged that questions over the subsidy made the GE order a bit harrowing but he said he's confident Congress will understand the consequences if it doesn't OK the credit. Based on a price $125 a barrel for crude oil, Pickens estimates the U.S. will spend $700 billion a year forforeign oil a tab he said is not sustainable. "People may say I'm foolish to have that kind of confidence in Congress, but I do because the $700 billion is so overwhelming," he told The Associated Press. "We're going to have to go to all the alternatives that we can." Wind energy today accounts for about 1 percent of the nation's electricity, but the industry has been on a growth spurt. More than $9 billion in investments helped U.S. wind capacity grow by 45 percent last year, and 2008 is poised to match those levels, according to the American Wind Energy Association. A report released last month a collaboration between the Energy Department and industry concluded wind energy could generate 20 percent of the nation's electricity by 2030, about the same share now produced by nuclear reactors. Andy Karsner, the Energy Department's assistant secretary for efficiency and renewable energy, said Monday that Congress should look beyond the current tax-credit subsidy and create a policy that encourages investment in a variety of clean-energy industries. Ideally, he said, it would be a "technology neutral" policy that helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions growth regardless of the source wind, nuclear, solar, or some other. For now, however, he said it's important for

"This is the tool we've got in the tool kit," Karsner said. "Playing with it right now is not the answer." Hunter Armistead, who helps oversee wind-farm projects for developer Babcock & Brown Ltd., agreed a policy that extends beyond two years was far more desirable for the industry. "We see it as a bridge to something more permanent," Armistead said. "For now, though, it's what we've got."Congress to renew the tax credit.

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Econ Wind keyWind is key to competitiveness the U.S. must expand the industry to take advantage of a growing global market AWEA, 4 (American Wind Energy Association, Wind Energy and the Economy, 10-26-2004, www.awea.org/faq/tutorial/wwt_economy.html) Wind power supplies affordable, inexhaustible energy to the economy. It also provides jobs and other sources of income. Best of all,wind powers the economy without causing pollution, generating hazardous wastes, or depleting natural resourcesit has no "hidden costs." Finally, wind energy depends on a free fuel sourcethe windand so it is relatively immune to inflation. What are America's current sources of electricity? Coal, the most polluting fuel and the largest source of the leading greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), is currently used to generate more than half of all of the electricity (52%) used in the United States. Other sources of electricity are: natural gas (16%), oil (3%), nuclear (20%), and hydropower (7%). How many people work in the U.S. wind industry? The U.S. wind industry currently directly employs more than 2,000 people. The

wind industry contributes directly to the economies of 46 states, with power plants and manufacturing facilities that produce wind turbines, blades, electronic components, gearboxes, generators, and a wide range of other equipment.The Renewable Energy Policy Project (REPP) estimates that every megawatt of installed wind capacity creates about 4.8 job-years of employment, both direct (manufacturing, construction, operations) and indirect (advertising, office support, etc.). This means that a 50-MW wind farm creates 240 job-years of employment.

Wind and solar energy are likely to furnish one of the largest sources of new manufacturing jobs worldwide during the 21st Century.What is the value of export markets for wind?

Export markets are growing rapidly. Overseas markets account for about half of the business of U.S. manufacturers of small wind turbines and wind energy developers. Small wind turbine markets are diverse and include many applications, both on-grid (connected to a utility system) and off-grid(stand-alone). A recent market study predicts that small wind turbine sales will increase fivefold by 2005.

The potential economic benefits from wind are enormous. At a time when U.S. manufacturing employment is generally on the decline, the production of wind equipment is one of the few potentially large sources of new manufacturing jobs on the horizon. AWEA estimates that wind installations worldwide will total more than 75,000 megawatts over the next decade, or more than $75 billion worth of business. If the U.S. industry could capture a 25% share of the global wind market through the year 2013, many thousands of new jobs would be created. Wind creates key export markets huge opportunities exist AWEA 7 (American Wind Energy Association http://www.awea.org/faq/wwt_economy.html, AM) Export markets are growing rapidly. Overseas markets account for about half of the business of U.S. manufacturers of small wind turbines and wind energy developers. Small wind turbine markets are diverse and include many applications, both on-grid (connected to a utility system) and off-grid (stand-alone). The potential economic benefits from wind are enormous. At a time when U.S. manufacturing employment is generally on the decline, the production of wind equipment is one of the few potentially large sources of new manufacturing jobs on the horizon. AWEA estimates that wind installations worldwide will total more than 100,000 megawatts over the next decade, or more than $100 billion worth of business. If the U.S. industry could capture a 25% share of the global wind market through the year 2015, many thousands of new jobs would be created.

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Econ Wind key to jobsWind power would massively increase employment AWEA 7 (American Wind Energy Association http://www.awea.org/faq/wwt_economy.html, AM) The U.S. wind industry currently directly employs more than 2,000 people. The wind industry contributes directly to the economies of 46 states, with power plants and manufacturing facilities that produce wind turbines, blades, electronic components, gearboxes, generators, and a wide range of other equipment. The Renewable Energy Policy Project (REPP) estimates that every megawatt of installed wind capacity creates about 4.8 job-years of employment, both direct (manufacturing, construction, operations) and indirect (advertising, office support, etc.). This means that a 50-MW wind farm creates 240 job-years of employment. According to a REPP study released in October 2004, boosting U.S. wind energy installations to approximately eight times today's levels could create 150,000 manufacturing jobs nationwide, with most jobs being added in the 20 states that have lost the most in recent years. According to REPP, some 90 companies in 25 states currently manufacture wind turbine components, and over 16,000 companies in all 50 states have the technical potential to enter the wind turbine market. The full report is available on the REPP Web site at: http://www.repp.org/articles/static/1/binaries/WindLocator.pdf Wind and solar energy are likely to be among the largest sources of new manufacturing jobs worldwide during the 21st Century. What is the value of export markets for wind? Export markets are growing rapidly. Overseas markets account for about half of the business of U.S. manufacturers of small wind turbines and wind energy developers. Small wind turbine markets are diverse and include many applications, both on-grid (connected to a utility system) and off-grid (stand-alone). The potential economic benefits from wind are enormous. At a time when U.S. manufacturing employment is generally on the decline, the production of wind equipment is one of the few potentially large sources of new manufacturing jobs on the horizon. AWEA estimates that wind installations worldwide will total more than 100,000 megawatts over the next decade, or more than $100 billion worth of business. If the U.S. industry could capture a 25% share of the global wind market through the year 2015, many thousands of new jobs would be created. Wind power would spur 500,000 jobs AWEA 08 (American Wind Energy Association, MAJOR NEW TECHNICAL REPORT FINDS WIND CAN PROVIDE 20% OF U.S. ELECTRICITY NEEDS BY 2030, May 12, http://www.awea.org/newsroom/releases/20percent_Wind_Report_12May2008.html) Wind is an important part of BP Alternative Energys business and of BPs diverse energy portfolio. Siting and wildlife issues will be a challenge, but AWEA and industry leaders are committed to working with stakeholders to make wind the environmental electricity choice, said Bob Lukefahr, President, Power Americas, BP Alternative Energy North America. This report underscores the benefits of diversifying our electricity sources. Growing to 20% wind requires investment in new manufacturing and capital projects, an estimated 500,000 jobs, and brings rural economic development across the country.

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Econ winds key to jobsExpanding wind energy would create 10 times as many jobs as fossil fuel expansion, stabilize energy prices, reduce consumer costs, and increase capital investment World Watch Institute and Center for American Progress in 6 (American Energy Now, The Renewable Path to Energy Security, September 2006, http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/AmericanEnergy.pdf, pg.10) Expanding the use of renewable energy will have a positive impact on employment, according to more than a dozen independent studies analyzing the impact of clean energy on the economy. Renewable energy creates more jobs per unit of energy produced and per dollar spent than fossil fuel technologies do. Several studies have shown that greater reliance on renewable energy would have large, positive impacts on the U.S. economy, creating significant numbers of new jobs, driving major capital investment, stabilizing energy prices, and reducing consumer costs. A transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy would create both winners and losers, but most studies show that many more jobs would be created than lost. A 2004 analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists found that increasing the share of renewable energy in the U.S. electricity system to 20 percentadding more than 160,000megawatts (MW) of new renewable energy facilities by 2020would create more than 355,000 new U.S. jobs.

If the increased use of renewable energy led to significant reductions in fossil fuel prices, consumer savings on electricity and natural gas bills would ripple through the U.S. economy, spawning even more jobs. It would also provide a tremendous economic boost to rural communities. Most of the jobs created in renewable energy would be high-paying positions for skilled workers, in fields such as manufacturing, sales, construction, installation, and maintenance. A 2004 Renewable Energy Policy Project study determined that increasing U.S. wind capacity to 50,000 MWabout five times todays levelwould create 150,000 manufacturing jobs, while pumping $20 billion in investment into the national economy. Renewable heating and biofuels alsooffer significant employment opportunities. The U.S. ethanol industry created nearly 154,000 jobs throughout the nations economy in 2005 alone, boosting household income by $5.7 billion

Wind power creates more jobs than fossil fuels US Department of Energy 4 (Wind Energy For Rural Economic Development, August (No Date) 4, http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/33590.pdf, AM) Wind energy projects create new jobs in rural communities in manufacturing, transportation, and project construction. New projects in the Great Plains prompted Denmarks LM Glasfiber to open a rotor blade manufacturing plant in North Dakota. Wind turbine tower and component manufacturing plants have created new jobs in several states, including Washington, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Local labor is often used for project construction, like building roads and erecting turbines. Once the projects are complete, jobs are created in the operation and maintenance of the projects. The wind power plant in Lake Benton, Minnesota, is now the second largest employer in town. Construction on Iowas major wind farms provided 200 six-month construction jobs and 40 permanent operations and maintenance jobs at an average wage of $16 per hour. Wind energy projects generate more new jobs than conventional fossil fuel projects. According to a study by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, wind energy produces 27% more jobs per kilowatthour than coal plants and 66% more jobs than natural gas plants. Wind power offsets carbon dioxide and fossil fuel demand, and creates jobs and revenue. World Watch Institute and Center for American Progress in 6 (American Energy Now, The Renewable Path to Energy Security, September 2006, http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/AmericanEnergy.pdf, pg.26-27) On balance, the environmental, economic, and social benefits of wind power outweigh the costs. During 2005, wind turbines operating in the United States offset the emission of 3.5 million tons of carbon dioxide, while reducing natural gas demand for power generation by 45 percent. Wind farms can be permitted and built far faster than conventional power plants. And by some estimates, every 100 MW of wind capacity creates 200 construction jobs, 25 permanent jobs, and up to $1 million in local property tax revenue.

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Econ wind solves blackoutsWind energy solves grid failure and blackoutsGleitz 06 (Robert, Wind Product line leader at GE, The Case for Wind, http://www.gepower.com/prod_serv/products/tech_docs/en/downloads/ger4264_casewind.pdf) To take full advantage of this countrys vast wind resources, costly new transmission lines will be necessary, and even with no upgrades to the transmission lines, a much greater penetration of Wind is possible.It was announced in early March that Arizona Public Service Company (APS), National Grid USA, and the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to collaborate in development of new transmission lines between Wyoming and Arizona. While this is only being studied at this point, APSand other utilitiesare attracted to Wyomings wind and coal resources. In addition, it was recently announced that seven utilities, including PG&E, would work with state government officials in the four states to determine the feasibility of the Frontier Linewhich is proposed to feed the growing energy needs of the West. The line is proposed from Wyoming through Utah, and Nevada to California. Recent experiences in the US (e.g., the Northeast Blackout of August 14, 2003) have shown that the growth of the US electric power grid presents an ongoing challenge. The grid is organic, with a continuous process of new transmission and generation being added, and older uneconomic and environmentally detrimental infrastructure being retired. Accommodation of new wind generation fits within this process. New techniques and business arrangements are being developed to make the

most of existing transmission. For example, Bonneville Power Administration is developing new transmission access arrangements that will increase the use of federally administered transmission for wind power, without requiring new construction. Ultimately, new transmission is required to accommodate large amounts of new wind generation. In many instances, where wind resources are best, the existing transmission is relatively weak. Improvements in the transmission for these regions adds system reliability for the customers served there. It is important to note that the development of any type of large new generation needed to meet Americas energy needs will require new transmission. For the most part, in the future, large new generation will be forced to site even farther from large population and load centers. This issue is by no means unique to wind energy. Increased penetration of wind generation will also affect the requirements of other generation. As new generation power by other fuels (such as natural gas, coal and nuclear), are inevitably developed, they will need to complement the variable characteristic of the wind generation. The technology necessary to provide this functionality is available. With a coherent and long-range wind energy policy, the market and grid planning systems will be able to adapt to these needs. Lastly, other emerging technologies, such as energy storage (i.e., water towers, batteries), will provide additional operational flexibility to economically meet the reliability needs of the grid.

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Econ wind good for growthWind energy helps the economyGleitz 06 (Robert, Wind Product line leader at GE, The Case for Wind, http://www.gepower.com/prod_serv/products/tech_docs/en/downloads/ger4264_casewind.pdf) GE Energy believes that the entire value chain benefits from increased penetration of wind turbines in the US: manufacturers, suppliers, utilities, government, society, and consumers. The Danish Wind Manufacturers Association estimates that for every added MW of installed wind capacity there are 22 direct and indirect job-years created. Benefits are realized through supply chain manufacturing, turbine assembly, construction, operations, maintenance, property tax revenues, land owner revenues, and community economic multiplier effects. The economic impact of wind energy has been studied in several US states and shows wind energy has a greater positive economic impact than either coal or gas sources of energy. As most wind turbines are placed in rural areas, property tax from the wind turbine farms provide much needed revenue for building schools, roads, bridges, and other needed infrastructure. A typical 100 MW farm can create $500 thousand to $1 million per year in local tax revenue. Rural land owners also benefit through land lease payments that can generate $2500 to $4000/MW/year. The American Corn Growers Foundation and Association support wind power farming as an alternative income stream for farmers and landowners and as an economic development opportunity for rural areas. Wind energy key to the economy and solving transmission grid overload 7 reasons Brisman in 5 -- Law clerk to the Honorable Alan S. Gold, United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida. J.D., 2003, University of Connecticut School of Law; M.F.A., 2000, Pratt Institute; B.A., 1997, Oberlin College (Avi, New York University Environmental Law Journal, ARTICLE: THE AESTHETICS OF WIND ENERGY SYSTEMS, Lexis Nexis) While farmers who lease their land for wind projects certainly benefit from these undertakings, such arrangements also expand the local tax base, "keeping energy dollars in the local community instead of spending them to pay for coal and gas produced elsewhere." 117 For example, if NedPower is successful [*52] in building its 200-turbine wind farm in Grant County, West Virginia, it will pay $ 500,000 in local taxes, which would make it the fifth-largest taxpayer in the county. 118 Similarly, the proposed wind farm project on the ridge of Mars Hill Mountain in Maine could increase the town of Mars Hill's tax revenue "by as much as half when the $ 68 million project is finished." 119 In some cases, the expansion of the local tax base can help stave off undesired urban development. 120 In addition to the economic benefits to rural communities, "the production of wind equipment is one of the few potentially large sources of new manufacturing jobs on the horizon," 121 which [*53] is especially important given that so many manufacturing jobs in the United States have disappeared, as companies seek cheaper labor overseas. 122 According to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), a national trade association representing wind power developers, wind turbine manufacturers, utilities, and others involved in the wind industry, every megawatt of installed wind capacity creates about 2.5 job-years of direct employment (short-term construction and long-term operations and maintenance jobs) and about 8 job-years of total employment (direct and indirect). This means that a 50-MW wind farm creates 125 job-years of direct employment and 400 job-years of total employment. 123 [*54] Wind power can also provide an economic benefit to power utilities. Reeves and Beck note that, "by further diversifying the energy mix, wind energy reduces dependence on conventional fuels that are subject to price and supply volatility." 124 Furthermore, wind energy can "provide generation capacity in geographic areas that are underserved by existing generation capacity. This can help to maintain proper voltage and current levels throughout the grid and reduce the need for upgrades to the transmission grid." 125 Finally, wind energy benefits the national economy by [*55] "reducing "hidden costs' resulting from air pollution and health care." 126 To illustrate, particulate matter, as discussed in Part II, has been linked to increases in asthma and respiratory ailments, resulting in a proliferation of hospitalizations and emergency room visits. 127 These visits translate into millions of dollars of lost wages from lost days of work. 128 Wind energy, however, does not create this same financial loss because it is cleaner than fossil fuels and thus does not result in or exacerbate asthma and respiratory ailments that require hospitalization.

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Wind PTC Aff


Warming PTC solvesA PTC extension would allow us to cut GHG emissions and effectively create a domestic market for wind energy AWEA 7 (American Wind Energy Association, A proposal for a strategic initiative, http://www.awea.org/policy/ccwp.html, 7/6/07) Wind technology provides an outstanding opportunity to cut carbon dioxide output at an extremely reasonable cost. Wind costs areexpected to be among the lowest of generating technologies by early in the next century,[6] when most of the new wind capacity would be installed. Wind energy is already within a cost-

The levelized cost of power from a wind project is now about 4.5 cents/kWh, compared with levelized coal plant costs of about 3.9 cents/kWh.[7]competitive range if its cost is examined on a true life-cycle basis over the lifetime of a typical wind plant. The cost of avoiding carbon dioxide emissions with wind technology is currently about $6 per ton avoided,[8] and will decline even further over the next decade, perhaps even to zero if wind achieves cost parity with fossil fuels, as the industry is now seeking to do. The goal for wind technology is to have winds total costs equal to the variable cost (i.e., the fuel and O&M costs) of its fossil fuel competitors. That goal can be reached within 5-10 years if a high growth path for wind is chosen. Over recent years, wind technology has consistently beaten predictions about future cost improvements. 30,000 MW--An Achievable Goal? To reach 30,000 MW by the year 2010, installed wind capacity would have to expand at a compound growth rate of 25% annually. This rate is achievable, but must be stimulated by policies that are steady and consistent[9] so that investment in new production capacity can be made as needed. We know that it is achievable because: * The global wind industry has been expanding at a similar rate or higher for the past five years. While the U.S. wind market has stagnated since 1991, the world market has accelerated swiftly enough to make wind the world's fastest-growing energy technology. Capacity additions outside the U.S. jumped by 40% in 1994, 65% in 1995, and 35% in 1996, and the pace of growth is expected to gather momentum again in the 1999-2000 time frame. * AWEA's detailed global market projections, which are conservative, indicate that new worldwide installations will total 30,000 MW in the next 10 years, which again suggests that the Strategic Wind Energy Initiative's goal of boosting U.S. installations by 28,300 MW over the next 13 years is ambitious, but achievable.[10] * In 1991, the European Wind Energy Association set a goal for European installations of 4,000 MW by the year 2000. That target has already been achieved; recently the Association established new goals, of 8,000 MW by the year 2000 and 40,000 MW by 2010.[11] European domestic policies have fueled strong market growth in Europe and elsewhere[12] --the U.S. can do the same for its domestic market while also encouraging continued rapid growth in the global market.

New wind projects can start going up within one to three years after new policies or incentives encouraging wind are put in place. Wind turbines themselves are modular and are composed of factory-built components which are already mass- produced or can be mass-produced when a market develops. Industry experts compare the manufacture of wind turbines to that of trucks, and expect manufacturing capacity to ramp up rapidly to respond to market demand.The Price of Inaction

Should the necessary policy support for wind not be forthcoming, development would lag, resulting in AWEA's "base case" projection, which forecasts cumulative installations of 7,875 MW for the U.S. by 2010. This still assumes very moderate but clear policy changes to encourage development of wind projects in the U.S. However, 7,875 MW of wind capacity makes only a small contribution to achieving CO2 emissions reductions in 2010, a date by which substantial progress needs to be made if the U.S. ever hopes to stabilize emissions at 1990 levels. It is therefore essential to take more significant policy steps so that AWEA's "high growth" scenario, under which wind reaches 30,000 MW installed by 2010, takes place.[13] The use of wind energy will lead to 100 million metric tons less of CO2 per year AWEA 7 (American Wind Energy Association, A proposal for a strategic initiative, http://www.awea.org/policy/ccwp.html, 7/6/07) The United States is currently expected to fall far short of reducing CO2 emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2010, according to projections from the Energy Information Agency (EIA). In fact, emissions in that year from the electric utility sector alone (which produces about a third of the nation's overall CO2 emissions) are predicted to exceed those in 1990 by some 548 million metric tons (MMT).[3]Every 10,000 MW of wind installed can reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 33 MMT annually if it replaces coal-fired generating capacity, or 21 MMT if it replaces generation from the U.S. average fuel mix.[4] The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) estimates that wind energy, if encouraged vigorously, could reach 30,000 megawatts (MW) of installed generating capacity in the U.S. by 2010 (compared to current capacity of 1,700 MW). If this target is achieved, wind would reduce national CO2 emissions by 100 MMT annually, or more than 18% of the 548-MMT excess [based on displacement of coal-fired generation].[5]

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Wind PTC Aff


Warming wind solvesWind energy has the potential to be bigger than the internetit is the solution to climate change Truini 7 (Joe Truini, Waste News, 6/11/07, Lexis Nexis)Los Angeles --The time is ripe for wind power, and it is well-positioned to take advantage of a positive political and social climate. ``The stars seemed to be aligned,'' said Karl Rabago, director of government and regulatory affairs for Arlington, Va.-based AES Corp. Despite a slow start, U.S. wind energy is poised to take the global lead in installed generation capacity by 2010, perhaps sooner, said Steve Sawyer, secretary general of the Global Wind Energy Council. ``The Europeans know it. They'll soon be eating your dust,'' he said. Political and public opinion is shifting toward adopting carbon regulations to address climate change, and wind power is the only form of affordable energy positioned to help, Sawyer said. New nuclear plants would be impossible to site and build by 2020, and commercial carbon capture technology for coal-fired power plants is at least 10 to 15 years away, which is the critical time to address climate ch

Wind PTC Affirmative

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