Wind Energy: Status and FutureTom Williams

NREL

FLC Mid-Continent Regional MeetingSeptember 2005

Topics

• NREL

• Market Drivers for Renewable Energy

• Wind Energy Markets Today

• R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Only national laboratory dedicated to

renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D Research spans fundamental science to

technology solutions Collaboration with industry and university

partners is a hallmark Research programs linked to market

opportunities

Major NREL Program Areas

Supply Side

Wind Energy

Solar Energy

Biomass/Biofuels Energy Systems

Geothermal Technology

Hydrogen Research

Electric Energy Systems and Storage

Demand Side

Transportation

Buildings Technology

Industry

Federal Energy Management

Cross Cutting Office of Science

Analytical Studies

International

Resource Assessment

National Wind Technology Center

Built in 1981 as the Small Wind TestCenter on 280 acres

Dedicated as the National WindTechnology Center in 1994

Today the NWTC is a world class state-of-the-art research facility on 305 acres testing advanced wind turbine technologies

Topics

• NRELNREL

• Market Drivers for Renewable EnergyMarket Drivers for Renewable Energy

• Wind Energy Markets TodayWind Energy Markets Today

• R&D and Future Prospects for WindR&D and Future Prospects for Wind

Atmospheric Concentration of CO2

Source: Adapted from W.M. Post, T.H. Peng, W.R. Emanuel, A.W. King, V.H. Dale, and D. DeAngelis. American Scientist, 1990. “The Global Carbon Cycle.”

Year

Atm

osp

her

ic C

O2

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

PP

MV

)

U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil

Saudi Arabia 26%Iraq 11%Kuwait 10%Iran 9%UAE 8%Venezuela 6%Russia 5%Mexico 3%Libya 3%China 3%Nigeria 2%U.S. 2%

U.S. 26%Japan 7%China 6%Germany 4%Russia 3%S. Korea 3%France 3%Italy 3%Mexico 3%Brazil 3%Canada 3%India 3%

Updated August 2002Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), Tables 1.2 and 8.1.

Have OilHave Oil Use OilUse Oil

The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highestconsuming nations combined.

The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highestconsuming nations combined.

World Population Growth, 1750-2100

Source: Population Reference Bureau

10

8

6

4

2

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Bill

ions

Developing Countries

Industrial Countries

The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost Energy

0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100 1000

Energy Consumption Per Capita (MMBTU/person)

GD

P P

er C

apit

a ($

000/

per

son

)

Poverty

Affluence

Ethiopia

United Kingdom

Mexico

Bangladesh

China

Poland

South Korea

United StatesFranceJapan

Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 1998 Tables E1, B1, B2; Mike Grillot, 5/17/00Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 1997 in 1990 dollars. Energy Consumption per capita is 1997.

El Salvador Russia

Long-Term Drivers for Renewable Energy

• Environmental– Greenhouse gas emissions– Other environmental impacts (air quality, acid rain, land use, water

use)

• National Energy Security– Reduce dependency on imported oil (political and economic risk)

• Social and Political – Energy necessary to reduce gap between developed and developing

world– World political pressure

• Economic– Least-cost energy solution– Reduced price uncertainty– Grid optimization

Topics

• NREL

• Market Drivers for Renewable EnergyMarket Drivers for Renewable Energy

• Wind Energy Markets Today

• R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

U.S. Energy Consumption by source - 1850-1999

Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-1996, Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables. 1997-1999, Annual Energy Review 1999, Table F1b.

Coal

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Non-hydro Renewables

Wood

Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08

Rest of World

Actual Projected

Rest of World

North America North America

Europe Europe

Jan 2005 Cumulative MW =46,048

Rest of World = 5,147

North America = 7,241

Europe = 33,660

MW

In

stal

led

Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003

Windpower Monthly, January 2005

*NREL Estimate for 2005

Sizes and Applications

Small (10 kW)• Homes (Grid connected)• Farms• Remote Applications

(e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking)

Intermediate (10-500 kW)• Village Power• Hybrid Systems• Distributed Power

Large (500 kW – 6 MW)• Central Station Wind Farms

• Distributed Power• Offshore Wind Generation

Stations

United States Wind Power Capacity (MW)

6,770 MW as of 12/31/04

Alaska1

California2,096

Colorado229

Hawaii9

Iowa632

Kansas114

Massachusetts1

Michigan2

Minnesota615

Nebraska20

New Mexico267

New York48

North Dakota

66Oregon259

Pennsylvania129

Tennessee29

Texas1,293

Vermont6

Wisconsin53

Wyoming285

Washington244

South Dakota

44

West Virginia66

Arkansas0.1

Idaho0.2

Maine0.1

Montana2

New Hampshire0.1

Oklahoma176

Utah0.2

Illinois81

Ohio7

Topics

• NREL

• Market Drivers for Renewable Energy

• Wind Energy Markets Today

• R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

Reducing the Cost of Energy

DOE Goal for Utility Scale Wind Systems

• Develop wind turbines capable of 3 cents/kWh on land and 5 cents offshore in Class 4 (13 mph) wind sites by 2012:

• Making more wind sites available close to load centers

• Increases the area for wind development by a factor of 20+

• Developing advanced wind technology for opening the U.S. offshore regions for wind development

Trent Mesa, Texas

•Offshore GE 3.6 MW 104 meter rotor diameter

•Offshore design requirementsconsidered from the outset:

–Crane system for all components

–Simplified installation

–Helicopter platform

Offshore GE Wind Energy 3.6 MW Prototype

Boeing 747-400

Clipper LWST Prototype 2.5 MW with 93 m Rotor

Offshore Wind Potential for New England

Preliminary Data

Evolution To Deep Water Wind Turbines

Avian Interactions Research Data suggest the most significant avian

wind-turbine interaction problem in the U.S. is in the Altamont WRA.

There is no reason that avian issues should be a concern for future wind farm development; any potential problem should be identified and dealt with before micrositing occurs.

Two guidance documents have been adopted by the NWCC: (1) Permitting of Wind Energy Facilities, and (2) Metrics and Methods for Avian Studies. These two documents serve as guidance for siting and development of new wind farms in the U.S.

Facilities developed following these guidelines have not experienced significant avian impact issues.

NREL Avian Library Available at: www.nrel.gov/wind/avian_lit.html

Infrared Image of a Bat Flying Through a Wind Turbine Rotor Taken by Jason Horn, Boston University

Collaborative Wildlife Research

• National Wind Coordinating Committee• Bat & Wind Energy Collaborative

LWST Turbines:• 3¢/kWh at 13mph• Electricity Market

2012

Offshore LWST Turbine:• 5 cents/kWh• Shallow/Deep water• Electricity Market• Higher wind Sites

2012 and Beyond

Custom Turbines:• Electricity• H2 production• Desalinate water• Storage• Multi-Market

2030 and Beyond

A Future Vision for Wind Energy

2004

Bulk Power Generator

4-6¢ at 15mph

• Land Based

• Bulk Electricity

• Wind Farms

Potential 20% of Electricity Market

Land Based Electricity Path Transmission Barriers

Cost & Regulatory Barriers

Land or Sea Based:• Hydrogen• Clean Water

Cost & Infrastructure Barriers

Land Based LWSTLarge-Scale

2–5 MW

Offshore Turbines5 MW and Larger

Future

Offshore Electricity Path

Advanced Applications Path