William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s...

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William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM or Cyber Weapons Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Transcript of William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s...

Page 1: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

William G. Rhodes IIISenior Manager, Sandia National

LaboratoriesAlbuquerque, NM

The Terrorist’s Choice:Nuclear, Biological, or

CyberWeapons

Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National

Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Page 2: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

William Ury, “The walk from "no" to "yes," Ted.com, 11/30/2010

TERRORISM“Taking an innocent stranger and treating him as an enemy who you hurt or kill in order to create fear.”

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FBI: 100% Chance of WMD Attack

Vahid Majidi, FBI Assistant Director, FBI WMD Directorate, 2/14/2011

Page 4: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

3IDEASIDEAS

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Risk MatrixRisk Matrix

Black Swan EventsBlack Swan Events

Ideas of Terrorist Success

Ideas of Terrorist Success

Page 6: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Risk = Threat x ConsequenceMotivationMotivation

Materials & ToolsMaterials & Tools

ManagementManagement

Human Capital & SkillsHuman Capital & Skills

Planning & ExecutionPlanning & Execution

OPSECOPSEC

EconomicEconomic

Health EffectsHealth Effects

Psychological EffectsPsychological Effects

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Page 7: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Risk = Threat x ConsequenceMotivationMotivation

ManagementManagementMaterials & ToolsMaterials & Tools

Human Capital & SkillsHuman Capital & Skills

Planning & ExecutionPlanning & Execution

OPSECOPSEC

EconomicEconomic

Health EffectsHealth Effects

Psychological EffectsPsychological Effects

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Page 8: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Ideas of Terrorist Success

Page 9: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Operation Hemorrhage

New York Post, “Cargo-jet plot was a cheap thrill” POST WIRE SERVICES, Nov. 21, 2010

Page 10: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Range of Possibilities

Page 11: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Terrorists are Failure Adverse

Page 12: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Black Swan Events

Black Swan Events

Page 13: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

UnpredictableUnpredictable

Retrospective ExplainabilityRetrospective Explainability

Large Consequences

Large Consequences

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Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons

Page 15: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.
Page 16: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.
Page 17: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Materials + Knowledge

Page 18: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.
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PuPu9494

Plutonium(239)Plutonium(239)

Page 21: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.
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TIME Magazine cover, “Merchant of Menace”, Feb. 14, 2005

Page 23: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Urs Tinner, World Radio Switzerland

Marco Tinner, Associated Press

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Changes Since 9/11

•USG Position on Terrorist Capability

•KSM Warning

•USG Nuclear Security Programs

Page 25: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Nuclear WeaponsFinal thoughts on

Page 26: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Biological Weapons

Page 27: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Siege of CaffaSiege of Caffa

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Spread of Bubonic Plague in Europe

Spread of Bubonic Plague in Europe

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NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare

Page 31: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.
Page 32: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.
Page 33: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare

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Terrorist Use of Biological Agents

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The Dalles, Oregon

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TIME Magazine cover, “Cult of Doom”, Apr. 3, 1995

Page 37: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Materials + Knowledge

Page 38: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.
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Bacteria

Toxins

Rickettsia

Viruses

Page 40: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

•2009 Rumors of Plots

•USG Bio-security Initiatives

•Other Activities

Changes Since 9/11

Page 41: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Bio WeaponsFinal thoughts on

Page 42: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Cyber Weapons

Page 43: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

We rely on ourcyber infrastructure

for so much!

We rely on ourcyber infrastructure

for so much!

Page 44: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Why are Cyber Threats Different?

Why are Cyber Threats Different?

Page 45: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

•Viruses

•Spyware

•Spam

•Phishing

•Trojan Horse

Page 46: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

StuxnetStuxnet

Page 47: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

•National Cyber Security Division, US CERT DHS

•Cyber Command, DoD

•US Cyber Security Coordinator

Changes Since 9/11

Page 48: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Cyber AttacksFinal thoughts on

Page 49: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”

Niels Bohr, 1922 Nobel Prize Winning Physicist

Page 50: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

3CHOICESCHOICES

Page 51: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Rank Weapon Type Average Rank

1 Chemical Weapon 1.3

2 Radiological Weapon 2

3 Biological Weapon 2.7

4 Nuclear Weapon 4

Delphi Survey

Page 52: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Source: Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Eds. Ackerman and Tamsett, CRC Press, 2009, pp. 379-395

Delphi Survey Results

Page 53: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

Final Thoughts

Page 54: William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons Sandia.

“Thank You”