CPCS GREEN TEAM:Why sustainability NOW?

What CPCS has done

Why Sustainability NOW?

“Sustainability” refers to using resources in a manner that is sustainable over the long term and considers the impact of today’s choices on future generations.

Planning a sustainable future today makes tomorrow a choice, not a consequence.

What Does “Sustainable” Look Like?

Plan energy needs. Think long term. Be aware of “just in time” models.

Make every effort to reduce consumption. Begin aiming for a mix of different energy

sources, especially renewables. Think outside the oil drum.

What is “Peak Oil Production”?

Because petroleum oil is a finite resource, it is inevitable that production will eventually peak and decline. “Peak oil production” is not a theory, it’s a REALITY.

The only questions are:1. When will it happen?2. What will be the effects?3. Will we choose the changes by preparing or have changes

forced upon us by circumstances?

How Concerned Should We Be?

US Dept. of Energy 2005 Report “Peaking of World Oil Production:

Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management”

Executive Summary:

“The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem.”

US Dept. of Energy Report “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management”

“As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.”

US Dept. of Energy Report “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management”

“…to have substantial impact, (mitigation options) must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.”

When will production peak?

What we know for sure:~All oil wells, oil fields, oil regions, etc. eventually reach peak production. The world will, too.~It takes 10-15 years for a new oil field to reach production.~Discoveries and investments in new oil fields have been in decline in the last 20 years.~Asian markets, especially China, are increasing consumption greatly.

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/16720_0610_froggatt_lahn.pdf, p. 14, 4.

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Robert Hirsch: Lead author of 2005, US Dept. of Energy Report “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management”“…the likely timing of the decline of world oil production being sometime in the next five years.”

ASPO-USA. “Interview with Bob Hirsch”. Energybulletin.net. Energy Bulletin. September 7, 2009.

“Lloyd’s 360 Risk Insight: Sustainable Energy Security,” 2010

“Lloyd’s 360 Risk Insight:

Sustainable Energy Security,” 2010

“A comprehensive two year study by the UK Energy Research Centre completed in August 2009 found that a peak in conventional oil production is likely before 2030 and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020.” (p. 13)

“Lloyd’s 360 Risk Insight: Sustainable Energy Security,” 2010

Foreword from CEO of Lloyd’s of London,

Dr. Richard Ward

“(This report outlines)…that we have entered a period of deep uncertainty of how we will source energy….”

“…current business leaders– and their successors– are going to have to find a new energy paradigm.”

“Lloyd’s 360 Risk Insight: Sustainable Energy Security,” 2010

“…we are in a period akin to a phony war. We keep hearing of difficulties to come, but with (fuels) still broadly accessible—and largely capable of being distributed where they are needed—the bad times have yet to hit.” (Foreward)

“Lloyd’s 360 Risk Insight: Sustainable Energy Security,” 2010

“…all business, not just the energy sector, need to consider how they, their suppliers, and their customers will be affected by energy supplies which are less reliable and more expensive.” (Foreward)

“Lloyd’s 360 Risk Insight: Sustainable Energy Security,” 2010

Three Positions on the Supply Outlook:

1. Advanced technologies will allow us to produce oil for generations, particularly from non-conventional sources, such as oil sands.

2. Oil production will peak and go into decline sooner than we are prepared, with catastrophic effects on society and economies.

3. There may be may be plenty in the ground, but factors such as cost, willingness to invest, political barriers will constrain production. (p. 13)

“Unconventional Fuels”?~ The primary difference between conventional and unconventional fuels is the density of the liquid.

~ Unconventional fuels flow slowly and must be processed and/or diluted to be extracted.

Examples: heavy oil, tar sands, tight sands, coalbed methane, gas shales

Obtaining Unconventional Fuels

1. The “easy to access” oil is largely consumed. What is left is more often the harder to reach oil. (Example: Drilling 5000’ below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico)

2. Harder to access fuels require more energy to extract.

3. Hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” uses pressurized liquids to crack the rocks to obtain gas, a controversial method that has provided a boon in the natural gas market, but reportedly pollutes water sources.

Impacts of Unconventional Tar Sands

Oil:

• Greater use of energy in order to obtain energy: 3X greater compared to conventional

• 20% higher CO2 emissions due to greater energy use

• A barrel of tar sands oil requires 3 barrels of water that is so toxic it cannot be returned to rivers.

• More costly to produce than conventional

Recommendations From Executive Summary:

“Businesses which prepare for and take advantage of the new energy reality will prosper—failure to do so could be catastrophic.”

Expect and prepare for a return to the price volatility seen in 2008. Expect and prepare for energy supply disruptions.

Reduce fossil fuel dependence.

Invest in renewable energy and smart technology.

“Businesses must address energy-related risks to supply chains and the increasing vulnerability of “just in time” models.

What Has CPCS Done?1. Educated staff and students to reduce

electrical consumption:• Shutting down computers• Shutting off all or half of lights as possible• Smart power strips

2. Increased recycling of paper, batteries

3. Started school garden, composting planned.

4. Biofuel feasability study

Sources:Anthony Froggatt, Glada Lahn. “Lloyd’s 360° Risk Insight: Strategic risks and opportunities for businesses”. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/16720_0610_froggatt_lahn.pdf. Chatham House. 2010. September, 2010.

Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project LeaderRoger, Bezdek, MISI, Robert Wendling, MISI. “PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT”. http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/oil_peaking_netl.pdf. US Department of Energy. February 2005