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Why People vote Suffering through Suffrage. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Examine the 2008...
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Transcript of Why People vote Suffering through Suffrage. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Examine the 2008...
Why People vote
Suffering through Suffrage
Clearly Stated Learning Objectives
• Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history
• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process at the Presidential levels
AGE
Young Voters
• About Young Voters
• Young voters in 2004
Young Voters in 2008
• 2-1 For Obama
• Why
• What about other Age Groups
Age and Vote 2008
INCOME AND EDUCATION
Social Class
• Not a very Important Distinction
• Democrats do well at both ends
Education
• Education is correlated with income.
• There once was a linear relationship with voting Republican
• Many cross-cutting factors at play- for one everybody has a High School Degree!
Education and Vote
Education in 2008
• A curvilinear relationship
• Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum
RELIGION
Religion in America
• Americans are very religious in affiliation and action
• Religion has changed in America– More Religions
– More Politically Active Religions
Identification vs. Behavior
• Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice
• Religious activity is a much better predictor
Church Attendance and Vote
Who you are
• Jewish voters
• Catholics
Vote By Religion- 2008
Protestants
• Evangelicals
• Mainline
REGIONIt is not what it used to be
The Solid South
• A key component of the Roosevelt coalition– 11 states of the Confederacy Provided• 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in 1916• 47% of the necessary votes for victory in 1932• 31% of Kennedy’s vote in 1960• 43.7% for Jimmy Carter in 1976
– Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates
Why the South Used to be more important
• Shared the characteristics of an important group– Large– Reliable
• The GOP Southern Strategy changes this
The Shift in the South
• 56.6% of Bush’s necessary votes in 2008
• Only 1 Non-southern Democratic Candidate from 1948-2008 won election
• Obama Mobilizes African American Voters in large states (FL, NC, VA)
Why Region is not as Important
• Mobility
• National exposure of the Media
• Region is an intervening variable, as primary factors really push vote
Region in 2008
Cities and Suburbs
• Urban areas and Rural Areas
• America is becoming less rural
• Obama dominates cities, and wins the burbs
Where We live
Gender and Marriage
• The Gender Gap
• Why?
Gender in 2008
Marriage
• Married People vote Republican
• Singles vote Democratic
Marital Status
Decline of Security Moms