Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition? · 2018. 6. 14. ·...
Transcript of Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition? · 2018. 6. 14. ·...
Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better
Than Others since Early Transition?
IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar
Vienna, June 13, 2018
Bas B. Bakker
Senior Regional Resident Representative
for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe
In 1989, CESEE countries were much
poorer than Western Europe
2Note: For BIH data for 1990.
Then communism was abolished
What would we have expect to have
happened?
Income differentials with Western Europe
would become smaller
Poorer countries would grow faster than
richer countries
3
Convergence between 1989 and 2017
4
What happened in practice?
After initial decline in GDP in early transition, countries started growing again in early to late 1990s
Since then there has been clear convergence with Western Europe
But some countries have done much better than others
Some countries are still poorer than they were in 1989
5
After a deep post-transition recession
6Note: For BIH data for 1990-1996
Most countries have grown strongly over
the past two decades
7
In the past two decades all countries have
narrowed income differentials with Germany
8
ALB
AUT
BEL
BGR
BIH
BLR
CYP
CZEDEU
DNKESP
EST
FINFRA
GBR
GRC
HRV
HUN
ITA
LTU
LUX
LVA
MDA
MKDMLT
MNE
NLD
POL
PRT
ROU
RUS
SRB
SVK
SVNSWEUKR
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
EU New Member States have done better than
Western Balkans and CIS
9
GDP PPP per capita in 1996 vs. its change in 1996-2017
Note: Data for UVK not available.
Source: Penn World Tables and WEO.
GD
P p
er
cap
ita g
row
th in
1996
-2017
(Perc
en
t)
GDP PPP per capita in 1996
(thousands of 2011 USD)
New Member States
Western Balkans
European CIS
Fitted
lines
Some parts of CESEE have similar income levels
to Spain and Italy; others are still poorer
10
Most-but not all-countries are richer now
than in 1989
11
There are also visible differences in
emigration
12
What explains these differences?
13
1. Is it data issues?
2. Early transition
3. War and conflicts
4. Boom-busts / macro-stability
5. EU Membership
6. Whether transition has been completed
7. Institutions
8. Country case (a) Poland vs. Ukraine
1. Do differences reflect data issues?
GDP statistics in late 1989 not very good
Prices were not right
Other problem: GDP not good indicator of
consumer welfare
Much of what was produced was not
wanted by consumers (cf. military
expenditures)
Much was of low quality
14
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 1992 1994 1996
However, even if size of initial collapse was
exaggerated, there clearly were large cross country
differences
15
Other more easily measurable
indicators also suggest:
Large initial output falls
Large cross country
differences
Between 1990 and 1995,
electricity consumption fell
by almost 40 percent in
Moldova and Ukraine
very little in Poland.
Electricity Consumption per Capita
(index, 1990=100)
POL
BGR
MDA
RUS
UKR
Both progress and cross-country differences can be
seen in satellite pictures
16
2. Early transition to market economy
In early 1990s there was a debate whether reforms should be gradual
Worry was that more rapid reforms would be too painful
Rapid reforms were indeed painful—unemployment in early reformers rose sharply
However, countries that postponed reforms had a much longer and deeper initial recession
Why? Without hard budget constraint on firms, it was hard to get credit growth and inflation under control
17
ALBBLR
BIH
BGR
HRV
CZE
EST
HUN
LVALTU
MKD
MDA
POL
ROU RUS
SRB & MNE
SVK
SVN
UKR
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
1 2 3 4
Note: t=1989
For former USSSR countries: t=1991
For Bosnia and Herzegovina: t=1990
EBRD transition indicator for SRB & MNE – data only for Serbia
Countries that postponed reforms
suffered deeper output losses
18
23 71 12 22 88 26
Cumulative change of GDP and early transition reforms
Average of six EBRD transition indicators in 1995
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
han
ge o
f G
DP
in t
he b
eg
inn
ing
of
tran
siti
on
, t;
t+5 (
perc
en
t)
ALB
BLR
BIH
BGR
HRV
CZE
EST
HUN
LVA
LTU
MKDMDA
POL
ROU
RUS
SRB & MNE
SVK
SVN
UKR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Weaker growth in early transition not
compensated by faster growth later
19
Ch
an
ge
inin
com
ep
er
cap
ita g
ap
to
USA
,
1998-1
7 (
pp
)
Convergence per capita to USA in 1989-97 and 1998-17 (pp)
Change in income per capita gap to USA, 1989-97 (pp)
Note: 1990-17 for Bosnia and Herzegovina
ALB
BLR
BIH
BGR
HRV
CZE
EST
HUN
LVALTU
MKD
MDA
POL
ROU
RUS
SRB & MNE
SVK
SVN
UKR
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0 5 10 15 20 25
3. Wars and conflicts: the four countries
with the lowest growth all had wars
20
Avera
ge a
nn
ual G
DP
per
cap
ita g
row
th,
1989-2
017
(perc
en
t)
Average GDP per capita growth, 1989-17, and its level in 1989
Red circle indicate whether a country experienced a war in 1989-17
Note: 1999-2017 for BIH.
GDP per capita in 1989, thousands of 2016 PPP US dollars
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
4. Some countries have gone through
boom-busts that slowed average growth
21
Ukraine
Poland
GDP Growth
(Percent)
GDP per capita
(2000=100)
Ukraine
Poland
Countries with fewer recessions grew
faster on average
22
ALB
BLR
BGR
HRV
CZE
EST
HUN
UVK
LVALTU
MKDMDAMNE
POL
ROU
RUS
SRB
SVK
SVN
UKR
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number of years with a decline of GDP vs. annual average GDP growth
between 1996 and 2017
Number of years with negative GDP growth, 1996-2017
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ual G
DP
gro
wth
, 1996-2
017
(Perc
en
t)
Note: for MNE and UVK: data for 2001-17; for SRB: 1998-2017.
ALB
BLR
BIH
BGR
HRV
CZE
EST
HUN
UVK
LVA
LTU
MKD
MDA
MNE
POL
ROURUS
SRBSVK
SVN
UKR
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Countries which grew very fast pre-crisis
experienced the deepest decline in 2009
23Average annual GDP growth, 2002-07
(Percent)
GD
P g
row
th in
2009
(Perc
en
t)
Average annual GDP growth in 2002-07
vs.
GDP growth in 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
EST BGR SVK ROU CZE POL BIH HUN BLR RUS UKR SVN HRV UVK MKD ALB MDA
Crises led to high NPLs and weak banks,
which holds back growth
24
NPL ratio in 2008 and peak value between 2008-16
(Percent)
Note: for BLR, UVK and ALB: bar showing data for 2010; for MDA: 2009.
Max. between
2008-16
2008
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
BLR BIH SRB MDA UKR RUS ALB MKD SVN ROU BGR HRV CZE HUN SVK LVA LTU POL EST
5. EU Membership
EU accession was powerful catalyst for reforms and
upgrading of institutional framework
25
Average of six EBRD indicators in 2014
25Note: 2007 for Czech Republic
EU countries
non-EU countries
0
10
20
30
1 2 3 4 5
0
10
20
30
1 2 3 4 5
(Prospects of) EU Membership led to
more reforms and higher growth
26
GD
P p
er
cap
ita in
1995 a
nd
2014,
tho
usa
nd
s o
f 2014 P
PP
US d
ollars
Average of the EBRD transition indicators in 1995 and 2014
SEE non-EUCIS
SEE EU
CE5
Baltics
19952014
GDP per capita and average of EBRD transition indicators
ALB
BIH
HRV
MKD
SRB & MNE
1
2
3
4
5
5 10 15 20
BGR
CZE
EST
HUN
LVA
LTU
POL
ROUSVK
SVN
1
2
3
4
5
6
10 15 20 25
Rapid convergence in EU and EU
candidate countries
27
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ual G
DP
per
cap
ita g
row
th,
2000-1
7 (
perc
en
t)
Average GDP per capita growth, 2000-17, and its level in 2000
CESEE-EU countries (as of 2007) Candidate countries and Croatia
Note: Bosnia and Herzegovina has been recognized as
a potential candidate country by the EU
GDP per capita in 2000, thousands of 2016 PPP US dollars
BLR
MDA
RUS
UKR
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
5 10 15 20 25
By contrast, no convergence in European
CIS
28
Avera
ge a
nn
ual G
DP
per
cap
ita g
row
th,
1989-1
7(p
erc
en
t)
Average GDP per capita growth, 1989-17, and its level in 1989
GDP per capita in 1989, thousands of 2016 PPP US dollars
ALBBIH
BGRHRV
CZE
ESTHUN
LVA
LTU
MKD
MDA
POL
ROU
RUS
SRB & MNE
SVKSVN
UKR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3 3.5 4 4.5
6. Countries that have more completed
transition are richer…
29Average of six EBRD transition indicators , 2014
GD
P p
er
cap
ita a
s p
erc
en
t o
f U
S, 2017
GDP per capita as percent of US in 2017 and average of EBRD transition indicators in 2014
Note: EBRD data for CZE from 2007
and for SRB & MNE – only for Serbia
ALBBIH
BGR
HRV
EST
HUNLVA
LTU
MKD
MDA
POL
ROU
RUS
SRB
SVKSVN
UKR
MNE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
55 60 65 70 75 80 85
…as do countries where private sector is
more vibrant
30
GDP PPP per capita in 2017 and private sector share in GDP in 2010
GD
P P
PP
per
cap
ita a
s p
erc
en
t o
f U
S, 2017
Private sector share in GDP in 2010
(Percent)
31
Limited privatization progres in Bosnia and
Herzegovina and in Serbia stalled after the crisis
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Large scale privatization
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Small scale privatization
HUN, POL, SVK
Baltics
HUN, POL, SVKBaltics
BIH
SRB
BIH
SRB
EBRD Transition Indicators
7. CESEE countries differ in the quality of
institutions, e.g. in governance….
32
Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2016
(Ranges from -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance)
…and the judiciary.
33
Judicial Independence, 2015
Source: World Economic Forum. Note: Worldwide distribution excluding LICs
Above 75 percentile Between 25 and 75 percentile Below 25 percentile
Impartial Courts, 2015
Richer countries have better institutions
(though causality may go both ways)
34
GD
P p
er
cap
ita in
2016
(Th
ou
san
ds
of
PP
P d
ollars
)
Government Effectiveness (WGI), 2016
Ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance
ALB
AUT
BEL
BGR
BIH
BLR
CZE
DEUDNK
ESP
EST
FINFRA
GBR
GRC
HRV
HUN
ISL
ITA
LTU
LVA
UVK
MDA
MKD
MLT
MNE
NLD
POLPRT
ROM
RUS
SVKSVN
SWE
UKR
SRB
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Government Effectiveness vs. Income Per Capita, 2016
COUNTRY CASES
35
8. Country case (a) Poland vs Ukraine
Poland has done much better than Ukraine
In 1989 they were equally rich
Now Poland is three times as rich
Why?
Poland more macro-stability
Poland reformed more and earlier
Poland has better institutions
36
Difference is clearly visible on satellite
pictures.
37
Nightlights intensity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
POL UKR
Macro-stabilization occurred much
earlier in Poland.
38
CPI Inflation
(Percent y/y)
Poland
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
GDP Per Capita
(Thousands of 2016 US$)
Poland
Ukraine
Ukraine
10155↑
Poland has not had any crisis; Ukraine
has had three
39
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
GDP Level
(Index, 1997=100)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
PLN UAH
Exchange Rates vs EUR
(Percent m/m)
Poland
Ukraine
Russian
crisisGFC
Ukrainian
crisis
Russian
crisis GFCUkrainian
crisis
Poland reformed earlier and deeper
40
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Max
Poland
Ukraine
Average of EBRD Transition Indicators
Poland has much better institutions
41
Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2016
(CESEE countries in global ranking)
Voice and
Accountability
Political
Stability
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of
Law
Control of
Corruption
Poland
Ukraine
Bett
er
inst
itu
tio
ns
CONCLUSION
42
Why have some countries done better
than others?
Part of it is good luck
No wars
EU membership (due to geographical location)
But policies also played a role
43
Good policies help
Good macro-policies
Macro-instability hurts growth
Good micro-policies
Good working markets help boost
productivity/efficient allocation of resources
Good institutions
Strengthens incentives to invest, innovate, and
not emigrate
44
45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
CZE SVK POL EST LTU HRV RUS ALB UVK BLR BGR MKD LVA HUN ROU SRB BIH MDA UKR
IMF Lending Arrangements
(Percent of average GDP 1995-2018)
1990-2000 2001-2010 2011-2018
IMF has helped too, both with financial
support…
...and with technical assistance.
46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
CZE EST SVK HUN SVN LVA LTU MNE POL ROU HRV BLR SRB BGR BIH MKD UVK ALB RUS UKR
1990-2000 2001-2010 2011-2017
IMF Technical Assistance
(Sum of person years)
EFF - Extended Fund Facility
ECF - Extended Credit Facility
SBA - Standby Arrangement
STF - Systemic Transformation Facility
PCL - Precautionary and Liquidity Line
Facility Years
Amount
(millions of
2018 USD)
In percent
of GDP
Serbia:
SBA 2015 - 2018 1379.4 3.5
SBA 2011 - 2013 1658.3 3.2
SBA 2009 - 2011 4681.0 9.5
EFF 2002 - 2006 1147.9 5.2
SBA 2001 - 2002 352.6 2.1
Kosovo:
SBA 2015 - 2017 217.5 3.2
SBA 2012 - 2013 153.6 2.1
SBA 2010 - 2012 161.9 2.4
Macedonia:
PCL 2011 - 2013 732.9 6.1
SBA 2005 - 2008 96.2 1.2
SBA 2003 - 2004 37.5 0.6
ECF 2000 - 2001 19.3 0.4
EFF 2000 - 2001 45.0 0.8
ECF 1997 - 2000 111.6 1.9
SBA 1995 - 1996 52.1 0.7
STF 1994 - 1994 27.9 0.5
Facility Years
Amount
(millions of
2018 USD)
In percent of
GDP
Bosnia and Herzegovina
EFF 2016-2020 641.2 3.6
SBA 2012-2015 942.1 5
SBA 2009-2012 1813.4 8.9
SBA 2002-2004 119.4 1.3
SBA 1998-2001 188.4 2.4
Albania
EFF 2014-2017 478.5 3.4
ECF/EFF 2006-2009 15.3 0.1
ECF 2002-2005 49.4 0.8
ECF 1998-2001 89.9 2.4
ECF 1993-1996 95 4
SBA 1992-1993 46.3 3.3
Western Balkans have long history of
IMF-sponsored programs
IMF Lending Arrangements in Western Balkans, 1990-2018
Thank you