Wholesale Power Price Forecast

01/28/03 Current Trends Update

March 11, 2003

Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003

Major updates since A&R forecast

• AURORA vendor updates:– updated model version – revised default curtailment blocks– finer WECC load-resource area definition (Baja & S. NV)

• Adjusted scope of PNW East & MT load-resource areas.• Updated inventory of post-2000 completions and projects under

construction.• Heavy scrubbing of existing thermal resource data.• NPPC revised load growth forecasts (PNW & other LRAs).• NPPC revised fuel price forecasts and pricing structure.• NPPC revised new resource characteristics.• Reshaped seasonal distribution of planned outages.• Added scheduled upgrades to LRA transfer capacity.

Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003

Current Trends case key assumptions I

• Projects scheduled for completion are completed; additional projects are market-driven.

• Suspended projects > 25% complete available as new resource options at reduced capital cost.

• Projects scheduled for retirement are retired; additional retirements are market-driven.

• $15/kW/yr point-to-point transmission & basic ancillary services cost plus 1.9% transmission loss penalty (except cogen & peaking units).

• NPPC medium case fuel price forecasts.

Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003

Current Trends case key assumptions II

• NPPC medium case load forecasts.• New resource options:

540 MW gas-fired combined-cycle gas turbine (frame)70 MW duct firing (power augmentation) for above2 x 46 MW gas-fired simple-cycle gas turbine (aeroderivative)100 MW wind plant400 MW pulverized coal-fired steam-electric (ex. PNW-West & CA)20 MW central-station solar photovoltaics

• Permanent production incentive for new renewables.

• SBC and RPS resource development where adopted.

• Oregon CO2 offset requirement for all new fossil units.

• $7.50/MWh green tag revenue for new renewables.

Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003

Price forecasts: Mid-Columbia

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

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Pri

ce

(2

00

0$

/MW

h)

PNWE - R4 Fin Base2 (012803)

PNWE - Current Trends (092702)

Adequacy & Reliability Study (022500)

Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003

Levelized Mid-Columbia price forecast(2006–25)

$30.32

$38.13$39.51

$0

$5

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Adequacy & Reliability Study(022500)

PNWE - Current Trends(092702)

PNWE - R4 Fin Base2(012803)

2006

-25

Lev

eliz

ed P

rice

($/

MW

h) A&R forecast is levelized

from 2006-17.