Where is Harm’s Way? (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines) Department of Environment and...
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Transcript of Where is Harm’s Way? (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines) Department of Environment and...
Where is Harm’s Way?(Mapping Disaster Risk
in the Philippines)
Department of Environment and Natural Resources
Manila Observatory15 March 2005
Can you guess this hazard?
And this one…
Where does the money go?
Disaster Language
Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability
Risk likelihood of harm, loss, disaster
Hazard physical impact of disturbance
Exposure elements affected by hazard
Vulnerabilitycapacity of community to prepare, absorb, recover from hazard
Risk = H x E x V
Hazards• Natural
– Typhoon– Drought (El Nino)– Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide)– Volcano– Tsunami
• Anthropogenic– Deforestation– Mining– Climate change (historical, projected)
Hazard:Typhoon
Data source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center (1945-2001)
Hazard:Drought(El Nino)
Data source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre-Climate Research Unit
Hazard:Earthquake
Hazard:Landslide(E-quake)
Hazard:Volcano
Hazard:Tsunami
Hazard:Deforestation
Hazard:Mining
Hazard: Climate change (historical rain, temperature)
Source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre-Climate Research Unit
Hazard:Climate change
(projected warming)
Source: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
Hazard: Climate change (projected rainfall)
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Exposure
• Population
• Natural habitat
• Conservation areas
• Groundwater
Exposure (Population)
Data source: NSO, (Population in 2000)
Exposure(Natural Habitat)
Exposure (conservation areas)
Exposure (groundwater)
Vulnerability
• Human Development Index– Education– Health– Economy
• Urban centers
• Socio-eco pressures
• Transport
Vulnerability (HDI)
Vulnerability (urban centers)
Vulnerability (socio-eco pressure)
Vulnerability (transport)
Risk
• Typhoon
• Drought (El Nino)
• Earthquake (tremor, landslide)
• Tsunami
• Volcano
• Climate Change (temperature, rainfall)
Risk:Typhoon
Risk:Drought(El Nino)
Risk:Earthquake
Risk:Landslide
(Earthquake)
Risk:Tsunami
Risk:Volcano
Risk:Climate Change (Temperature)
Risk:Climate Change
(Rainfall)
In sum, harm’s way:• Typhoon
– Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)
• Drought (El Nino)– Mindanao (central, west)
• Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + Tsunami– Northwest to southeast diagonal across RP
• Volcano– Luzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central,
east), Mindanao (central)
• Climate Change – Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central)– Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)