Finding Harm’s Way (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)
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Transcript of Finding Harm’s Way (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)
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Finding Harms Way(Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)Department of Environment and Natural ResourcesManila Observatory14 April 2005
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TYPHOON TRACKS
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EARTHQUAKEEPICENTERS
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Where does the money go?
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RISKlikelihood of harm, loss, disaster
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Physical impact of disturbanceHAZARDCapacity of a community to prepare, absorb and recover from hazard
VULNERABILITY
RISKElements affected by hazardEXPOSURE
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Risk = H x E x V
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ExposurePopulationNatural habitatConservation areasGroundwater
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EXPOSUREPOPULATION DENSITY 2000National Statistics OfficeCity/Municipal Population Data1km x 1km grids
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EXPOSURENATURAL HABITATPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities
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EXPOSURECONSERVATION AREASPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities
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EXPOSUREGROUNDWATER AVAILABILITYMines and Geosciences Bureau
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VulnerabilityHuman Development IndexEducationHealthEconomyUrban centersSocio-eco pressuresTransport
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VULNERABILITYHUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)UNDPEducationHealthIncome
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VULNERABILITYHIERARCHY OF URBAN CENTERSTask Force on Human Settlements, Development Academy of the Philippines
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VULNERABILITYSOCIO-ECONOMIC PRESSURESPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities
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VULNERABILITYTRANSPORTATION FACILITIESPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities
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EXPOSURE/VULNERABILITYPOPULATION DENSITY 2000HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)
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Hazards/RisksNaturalTyphoonDrought (El Nino)Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide)VolcanoTsunamiAnthropogenicDeforestation MiningClimate change (temperature,rainfall)
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HAZARDTYPHOONJoint Typhoon Warning Center(Tropical Depression, Tropical Storms,Typhoons, Super typhoons)0.25 x 0.25 grids(1945-2001)
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RISK (Typhoon)IfugaoLa UnionCagayanIlocos SurAlbayMountain ProvinceKalingaPangasinanSorsogonPampangaCamarines SurCatanduanesNueva EcijaIlocos NorteNorthern SamarTarlacApayaoRizalBenguetCamarines Norte
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HAZARDEL NINOIPCC-DDC-CRU0.5 x 0.5 grids(1971-2000)
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RISK (Drought/El Nio)SuluBasilanMaguindanaoLanao Del SurLanao Del NorteDavao Del SurMisamis OccidentalSaranganiZamboanga Del SurSouth CotabatoZamboanga Del NorteNorth CotabatoSultan KudaratSiquijorTawi-tawiNegros OrientalCamiguinDavao del NorteMisamis OrientalBukidnon
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HAZARDEARTHQUAKENational Geographic Data Center0.25 x 0.25 grids(1963-2001)
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RISK (Earthquake)TarlacZambalesPangasinanWestern SamarDavao del NorteSurigao Del NorteSurigao Del SurAlbayRizalCaviteCebuOccidental MindoroCamarines SurLa UnionPampangaBatangasSaranganiMasbateLagunaMetro Manila
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HAZARDEARTHQUAKE-INDUCEDSHALLOW LANDSLIDESPHIVOLCS
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RISK (EQ-Induced Landslides)AlbayRizalCebuCamarines SurTarlacZambalesPangasinanLa UnionPampangaWestern SamarSaranganiMasbateNegros OrientalLagunaMisamis OccidentalCapizDavao del NorteSurigao Del NorteBataanLeyte
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HAZARDDISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANOESPHIVOLCS
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RISK (Volcano)SuluAlbayTarlacZambalesNegros OrientalPampangaBatangasDavao del NorteBiliranCamiguinLagunaSorsogonSouth CotabatoCamarines SurQuezonNorth CotabatoBukidnonCagayanLeyteNegros Occidental
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HAZARDTSUNAMIEnvironmental and Natural Resources Atlas of the Philippines, ECPF
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RISK (Tsunami)AlbayCaviteCebuZambalesPangasinanLa UnionPampangaBatangasSaranganiMasbateNegros OrientalMetro ManilaSurigao Del NorteBataanLeyteSurigao Del SurBulacanRomblonBoholMisamis Oriental
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HAZARDPROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGECommonwealth and Scientific Research Organization5.625 x 3.2 grids(2066-2095)
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RISK (Temperature)SuluBasilanLanao Del SurMaguindanaoLanao Del NorteDavao Del SurZamboanga Del SurTawi-tawiMisamis OccidentalCamiguinSiquijorMisamis OrientalCebuAgusan Del NorteZamboanga Del NorteAlbaySaranganiNegros OrientalNegros OccidentalIfugao
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HAZARDPROJECTED RAINFALL CHANGEHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research 3.75 x 2.5 grids(2066-2095)
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RISK (Rainfall Change)AlbayPampangaIfugaoRizalCaviteSorsogonLagunaBiliranBatangasPangasinanMasbateMetro ManilaTarlacNueva EcijaNorthern SamarAklanCapizLa UnionWestern SamarRomblon
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HAZARDHISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGEIPCC-DDC-CRU0.5 x 0.5 grids(1901-1990)
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HAZARDDEFORESTATIONGlobal DEM Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities
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HAZARDMININGPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities
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In sum, harms way:TyphoonLuzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)Drought (El Nino)Mindanao (central, west) Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + TsunamiNorthwest to southeast diagonal across RPVolcanoLuzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central, east), Mindanao (central)Climate Change Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central)Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)