WHAT NEXT FOR NEPAL? Evidence on What Matters for Building

Resilience After the Gorkha Earthquake

R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S

RESILIENCE & MEASUREMENTAT MERCY CORPS

The capacity of communities in complex socio-ecological systems

to learn, cope, adapt, and transform in the face of shocks

and stresses.

Resilience:

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R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S

FOUR COMPONENTS OF RESILIENCE

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THE FOUR FRAMING QUESTIONS of RESILIENCE

RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

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R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E

Outcome-Based Measurement Approach

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CAPACITIES

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RESOURCES

PRE-SHOCK

STRATEGIES

POST-SHOCK

• Ability of people and systems to achieve improved well-being in the face of shocks and stresses

MEASURING RESILIENCE AFTER THE GORKHA EARTHQUAKE

R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S

Sindhupalchowk

R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E

PhilippinesResearch Questions

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What role did the following factors play in supporting households to cope with and recover from the earthquake?:• Disaster preparedness and response• Social relationships and networks• Access to and use of financial services• Access to and use of economic options

Which pre-shock capacities predicted more effective and less effective responses following the earthquake?

What groups were most and least likely to possess or have access to important resilience capacities?

R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E

Philippines

HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS

EARTHQUAKE SEVERITY

WELLBEING / WELFARE OUTCOMES

PRE-SHOCK CAPACITIES

POST-SHOCK CAPACITIES/RESPONSES

Analytical Framework

HOUSEHOLD CONTROLS & WARD FIXED EFFECTS

R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S

R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E : W H AT N E X T F O R N E PA L ?

R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S

Philippines

HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICSModel 2: PRE-SHOCK

CAPACITIES

WELFARE OUTCOMESModel 1:

HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS

PRE-SHOCK CAPACITIES

POST-SHOCK CAPACITIES

Model 3:HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS +

Model 4: PRE-SHOCK CAPACITIES

POST-SHOCK CAPACITIES+

WELFARE OUTCOMES

HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS +

R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E

Household Characteristics

•Caste•Women Decision-Maker•Female HOH

Pre-Shock Capacities

• Disaster Preparedness + Locus of Control

• Social Capital• Access to Finance• Access to Economic

Options

Post-Shock Capacities

• Disaster Response• Drawing on Social

Capital• Drawing on

Financial Resources• Maintaining or

Drawing on Economic Options

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Earthquake Severity

• Earthquake ward severity index

• Self-reported damage to home

Welfare Measures

• Coping Strategies Index (CSI)• Human Dietary Diversity

Index (HDDI)• Maintaining or Regaining

Livelihoods• Shelter Quality• Asset Investment• Progress out of Poverty (PPI)

Short-Term Coping

Recovery

Development

R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S

R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E

PhilippinesMethods:

Qualitative Rapid Assessment

Quantitative Survey – 10 weeks post

Follow-up surveys:Post- MonsoonPeriodic – every six months

R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S

R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E

PhilippinesSample:

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R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E

PhilippinesDisaster Preparedness and Response

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Key Findings: • Timeliness of aid is a critical determinant of coping and

recovery. • Common disaster preparedness capacities appear insufficient

in contexts of weak governance and institutions.

Recommendation: To be effective, DRR must be supported by functioning institutions, and reach to the household level.

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PhilippinesSocial Identity and Social Capital

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Key Finding: Who you are – including caste and gender – can limit access to resources and strategies critical for resilience, and undermine welfare after crisis.

Recommendation: Humanitarian and development actors must do more to reduce social barriers to services that support coping and recovery.

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PhilippinesFinancial Inclusion

R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S

Key Finding: Financial Services in the right form matter, but credit can also do harm.

Recommendation: Humanitarian cash transfers must reach communities faster, while recovery and development interventions must tailor financial products, services and skills to best support resilience.

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PhilippinesEconomic Options

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Key Findings: • Ability to maintain or regain livelihoods post-shock is a critical

response• Livelihood independence seems to support disaster resilience,

while access to markets and remittances appear insufficient.• Proximity/access to market alone post-earthquake insufficient.

Recommendation: Humanitarian interventions must support households to regain livelihood as part of response interventions, while working actively to restore market functions for resilience.

R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E

PhilippinesCross-Cutting

R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S

Key Finding: Trade-offs exist between investments in short-term coping and longer-term recovery interventions.

Recommendation: Follow-up research must be done to understand which investments by households upfront yield the most positive results over time.

R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E

PhilippinesStrengths and Limitations

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Limitations

•Single Cross-Section•Isolated v. combined effects•Assessment v. evaluation

Strengths

• Set-up for follow-up research

• Examined multiple resilience pathways

• Defined and tested effects of responses

• Informed recovery

Thank You

R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S | 2 0 1 5 R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S