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Transcript of “What Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis on Climate Change and Prospects for a...
“What Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis on Climate Change and
Prospects for a Green Economy?” March, 02 2009
UNESCO
Prof. José Goldemberg
University of São Paulo
São Paulo, Brazil
World Primary Energy Supply (shares of 11.4 billions tons of oil equivalent )
Problems with the present energy system
i. Exhaustion of fossil resources
ii. Security of supply
iii. Environmental impacts
5 Petroleum fluxes
Security of supply
6
Environmental ImpactsProblem Main cause
Local • Urban air pollution• Water availability• Soil degradation• Toxic and dangerous substances
• Fossil fuels for transportation• Solid fuels (biomass and coal) for heating and
cooking.
Regional • Acid rain • Emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides
particulate and ozone from fossil fuels
Global • Reduction of the ozone layer• Climate Change• Coastal and ocean degradation• Deforestation• Biodiversity loss
• Emissions of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels
• Extraction of timber, charcoal production and
expansion of the agricultural frontier.• Transportation of fossil fuels
7
Global anthropogenic greenhouse emissions in 2004
Source: IPCC, 2007
8
GHG emissions by sector in 2004
Source: IPCC, 2007
Technological Options
Energy Savings in the OCDE(1973 – 1998)
10Year
Modern renewables projections for 2010 and 2020
11
Note: Projections of modern renewables (including small hydro, excluding large) based on 11.5 percent growth per year, over the period 2001-2005.Sources: UNDP, UNDESA, and WEC, 2000 and 2004; REN21, 2006; And IEA, 2006
TECHNOLOGICAL LEAPFROGGING
Rather than mimicking the industrialized nations, going
through an economic development phase that is dirty and
wasteful creating a enormous legacy of environmental
pollution, developing countries can leapfrog over some of
the steps originally followed by industrialized countries and
incorporate currently available modern and efficient
technologies into their development process.
Crisis (KIKI)
(KI)
(KI)
Opportunity (KIKAI)
(KI)
(KAI)
Crisis and Opportunity
(KI)