WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? - SAHRAweb.sahra.arizona.edu/education2/czo/Orals/Amundson.pdf · WHAT HAVE...
Transcript of WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? - SAHRAweb.sahra.arizona.edu/education2/czo/Orals/Amundson.pdf · WHAT HAVE...
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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
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DISCLAIMER • All comments are preliminary • I am unsure if I believe in everything I will say • I reserve the right to completely change my mind at some later date
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CZO CHALLENGE • CZOs are great opportunity for Earth Sciences
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CZO CHALLENGE • CZOs are great opportunity for Earth Sciences
• Why are we doing it?, are we going to make it sustainable and relevant?, can we REALLY integrate it?
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CRITICAL ZONE(S) ≅ BIOSPHERE
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BIOSPHERE 1
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"The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks."
- Dr. Wallace Broecker
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BIOSPHERE 2
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SEEING BIOSPHERE 1 THROUGH A GLASS DARKLY
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Christina River
Shale Hills
Liquillo
Boulder Creek
Santa Catalina
Sierra
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TRYING TO SEE THE ELEPHANT
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FROM WHITE PAPER: The CZOs will:
1. Develop a unifying theoretical framework of CZ evolution;
2. Develop coupled systems models to explore how CZ services respond to anthropogenic, climatic, and tectonic forcings;
3. Develop data sets that document differing CZ geologic and climatic settings, inform our theoretical framework, constrain our conceptual and coupled systems models, and test model-generated hypotheses.
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WHAT?
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WHAT ? WHY?
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WHAT? WHY? AND HOW?
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WHAT? • a property?
• a process?
• a set of processes?
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WHAT? • a property?
• a process?
• a set of processes?
- Do we need to be selective about what is important in response to WHY?
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WHY? • Do we want to study how things work, or how to manage and adapt – or both?
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WHY • Do we want to study how things work, or how to manage and adapt – or both?
NRC Climate Report: A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
Conclusion 2: The nation needs a comprehensive and integrative climate change science
enterprise, one that not only contributes to our fundamental understanding of climate
change but also informs and expands America’s climate choices.
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WHY • Do we want to study how things work, or how to manage and adapt – or both?
NRC Climate Report: A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
Conclusion 2: The nation needs a comprehensive and integrative climate change science
enterprise, one that not only contributes to our fundamental understanding of climate
change but also informs and expands America’s climate choices.
NSF: SEES (Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability) $998M in 2012
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WHY • Do we want to study how things work, or how to manage and adapt – or both?
NRC Climate Report: A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
Conclusion 2: The nation needs a comprehensive and integrative climate change science
enterprise, one that not only contributes to our fundamental understanding of climate
change but also informs and expands America’s climate choices.
NSF: SEES (Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability) $998M in 2012
Science with a “solution” will be receiving more funding, and will be socially acceptable
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THE CRITICAL ZONE IN RELATION TO 21ST CENTURY ENVIRONMENT PROBLEMS MAKING OURSELVES RELEVANT (SOME WHAT AND WHY) • Oil/energyand Climate
- Peak oil - Renewable fuels/energy - Complex climate feedbacks to biosphere
• Food - Peak P, K, etc - Sustainable soil erosion/production - Greatly enhanced nutrient recycling (coupling human institutions with land) - Reduced energy use
• Biodiversity/Humans - Peak people - What do we save, what do we use? - Critical Zone of urban environments: sustainable/livable cities
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THE CRITICAL ZONE IN RELATION TO 21ST CENTURY ENVIRONMENT PROBLEMS MAKING OURSELVES RELEVANT • Oil and Climate
- Peak oil - Renewable fuels/energy - Complex climate feedbacks to biosphere
• Food - Peak P, K, etc - Sustainable soil erosion/production - Greatly enhanced nutrient recycling (coupling human institutions with land) - Reduced energy use
• Biodiversity/Humans - Peak people - What do we save, what do we use? - Critical Zone of urban environments: sustainable/livable cities
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COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM
Soil Thickness
Soil Production
Soil Erosion
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Soil Thickness
Soil Production
Soil Erosion
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Animals
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Plants
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Climate, soil residence time (thickness/prod), lithology, aspect, …
Climate, soil residence time (thickness/prod), lithology, aspect, …
Tecto
nics,
bedr
ock,
clima
te, w
eathe
ring
Tecto
nics,
bedr
ock,
clima
te
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THE CRITICAL ZONE IN RELATION TO 21ST CENTURY ENVIRONMENT PROBLEMS MAKING OURSELVES RELEVANT • Oil and Climate
- Peak oil - Renewable fuels/energy - Complex climate feedbacks to biosphere
• Food - Peak P, K, etc - Sustainable soil erosion/production - Greatly enhanced nutrient recycling (coupling human institutions with land) - Reduced energy use
• Biodiversity/Humans - Peak people - What do we save, what do we use? - Critical Zone of urban environments: sustainable/livable cities
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SOME CZO QUESTIONS • Is the choice of CZOs largely in upland, forested terrain justified?
- agricultural CZO’s? – more Christina Rivers? - urban CZOs? - more emphasis on humans?
• What do the existing CZO’s have to do with food, energy, climate, humans, cities, biodiversity? - economists? - policy/social science?
• Is the goal to be a CZO “GCM” or knowledge acquisition for targeted societal good? - Devote explicit resources to modelers? - NSF emphasis on sustainability
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CZO CONCEPT
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THE WORLD
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SOME CZO QUESTIONS • Is the choice of CZOs largely in upland, forested terrain justified?
- agricultural CZO’s? – more Christina Rivers? - urban CZOs? - more emphasis on humans?
• What do the existing CZO’s have to do with food, energy, climate, humans, cities, biodiversity? - economists? - policy/social science? - non-research science PhD’s?
• Is the goal to be a CZO “GCM” or knowledge acquisition for targeted societal good? - Devote explicit resources to modelers?
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HOW TO PUT IT TOGETHER? •
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DO WE WANT A CZ “GCM”?
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DO WE WANT A CZ “GCM”? – WHERE IS THE NEEDED MODELING?
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FROM OUR MEETING • Should CZO system be “creative anarchy” or top-down science?
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FROM OUR MEETING • Should CZO system be “creative anarchy” or top-down science?
• Is there some novel middle ground? - Support the network - Support risky novel science - Support a overarching modeling team - $50K one year awards to non-CZO’s to bring in other data sets
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PUTTING IT TOGETHER • Integration is not easy • 150 to 200 years of modern earth and biological science • Success of individual fields based on ability to specialize and rapidly advance
• Difficult both intellectually and logistically to link components together and see emergent properties of nature
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PUTTING IT TOGETHER:WHERE WE ARE AT ?
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UNDERSTANDING THE BIOSPHERE And now, I said, let me show in a figure how far our nature is enlightened or unenlightened: Behold, human beings living in an underground den…from their childhood…chained so that they can not move and can only see before them. Behind them a fire is burning…and they see only their own shadows, or the shadows of one another, which the fire throws on the opposite wall of the cave…
To them, I said, the truth would be literally nothing but the shadows of images.
You have shown me a strange image, and they are strange prisoners.
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UNDERSTANDING THE BIOSPHERE And now, I said, let me show in a figure how far our nature is enlightened or unenlightened: Behold, human beings living in an underground den…from their childhood…chained so that they can not move and can only see before them. Behind them a fire is burning…and they see only their own shadows, or the shadows of one another, which the fire throws on the opposite wall of the cave…
To them, I said, the truth would be literally nothing but the shadows of images.
You have shown me a strange image, and they are strange prisoners.
Like ourselves, I replied.
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COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM
Soil Thickness
Soil Production
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COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM
Soil Thickness
Soil Production
Soil Erosion
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Animals
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COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM
Soil Thickness
Soil Production
Soil Erosion
? - -
Animals
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COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM
Soil Thickness
Soil Production
Soil Erosion
? - -
Animals
- -
Plants
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