15 Global Challenges andbuilding a South Africa State of the Future Index

energy, environment, education and economics:Imagineering South Africa’s Future to 2030

Towards a 2030 vision for South Africa

6th - 7th May 2010Cape Town, South Africa

Geci Karuri-Sebina, SA Node of the Millennium Project 072 148 1132, geci@sampnode.co.za

Outline

• 15 Global Challenges

• State of the Future Index South Africa (SA-SOFI)

• foresightfordevelopment.org• foresightfordevelopment.org

• Other useful resources

Acknowledgement: Contributions from the Global Millennium Project

SASA--NODE:NODE:•Leadership / oversight•Admin & Fin•Coordination / mgmt•Repository function

SASA--NODE:NODE:•Leadership / oversight•Admin & Fin•Coordination / mgmt•Repository function

EXPERTISE:EXPERTISE:•Knowledge (FFWD)•Information (Scanning)•Tools & methods (SA-SOFI,FRM)•Analysis (BTM)

individuals”

“to deepen expertise infutures amongstinstitutions andindividuals”

“spreading a culture offutures thinking in the

About the SA Node

OUTREACH:OUTREACH:•GMP (GET phase)

•Universities challenge (M-level)

•Seminars & events…•Publications•Communication, Media stat•Website

futures thinking in theregion”NETWORKS:NETWORKS:

•SA Network (web-group)•Regional networks (FFWD)•MP Network (SOF)•Expert groups (Delphis)•Partnership (HSRC, IERI, Wits,IFR, AFI, Presidency, ..)

“to galvanise andmobilize southernAfrican experts andnetworks for globalfutures activity /collaboration”

2009 global SOFI analysis showed:

Getting better…• Literacy rate• School enrollment• Countries having or thought to

have plans for nuclearweapons

Threats…

• Climate pollution

• Food shortages

• Diseaseshave plans for nuclearweapons

• GDP per unit of energy use• Number of major armed

conflicts• Population growth• Physician• Internet users• Infant mortality• Life expectancy at birth• Women in parliaments

• Diseases

• Wars & Disasters

• Transnational organisedcrime

• Human rights

• Recession

And the verdict is…

• Things could get much better, or much worsefor some time…

Recession scenario

National SOFIwith TIA

1.2

SA-SOFI 2007

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Baseline

UQ

Med

LQ

2007 SA-SOFI analysis showed:

Getting better…

• Infant mortality

• Freedom

• Women in parliament

Getting worse…

• Life expectancy

• HIV/AIDS

• Pollution • Women in parliament• Pollution

• Biodiversity

• Water self-sufficiency

• Inequality

• Poverty

The SOFI approach

Method

• What variables should beincluded?– A Delphi study asking experts

for advice on importantvariables

Types

• Global

• National comparison

• National focusvariables

• How can the variables beforecast?– By using standard “:best fit”

curves

• How can the variables beweighted?– Using Delphi judgments

• National focus

Global Millennium Prize South AfricaGMP-SA

Thabang Sebetoane of Kroonstad wins theinternatioanl contest!

Award:12 May 2010, Mexico Coty

Hope withoutInclusion

=Dependency

Education Health Agriculture Infrastructure Economy

Inclusion of Youth…Inclusion of Youth…

Capacitywithout

Hope=

Terrorism

No Hope &No Inclusion

=Conflict

Inclusion of Youth…Inclusion of Youth…

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lar

glo

bal

geo

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litic

s…M

ult

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alge

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ics…

foresightfordevelopment.org

“Between persons of equal income there is no social distinction except thedistinction of merit. Money is nothing: character, conduct, and capacity areeverything. There would be great people and ordinary people and little people,but the great would always be those who had done great things, and never theidiots whose mothers had spoiled them and whose fathers had left them ahundred thousand a year; and the little would be persons of small minds andmean characters, and not poor persons who had never had a chance. That iswhy idiots are always in favor of inequality of income (their only chance ofeminence), and the really great in favor of equality.”

George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950

Geci Karuri-Sebina, SA Node of the Millennium Project 072 148 1132, geci@sampnode.co.za

Population by 2050…

1. India 1.6 billion people

2. China 1.4 billion

3. United States 400 million

4. Pakistan 309 million

5. Indonesia 280 million

6. Nigeria 259 million

15. Russia 108 million

16. Japan 103 million

17. Iran 100 million

18. Turkey 99 million

19. Uganda 93 million

20. Tanzania 85 million7. Bangladesh 256 million

8. Brazil 254 million

9. DRC 187 million

10. Ethiopia 183 million

11. Philippines 141 million

12. Mexico 132 million

13. Egypt 121 million

14. Vietnam 120 million

21. Kenya 85 million

22. United Kingdom 80 million

• Thailand 73 million

• South Africa 56 million

• Malaysia 40 million

World Population Prospects , 2008

In the 1990s, countries with a largeyouth bulge were much more likelyto experience an outbreak of civilconflict.

Population Action International,2007

Some other issues

• Public health & health systems– Inclusion– Affordability– Disaster response

• Transportation– Costs– Costs– Environment

• “Government service delivery”– Dependency– Universal access… to what?

• Decentralisation without capacity– Local government– City growth strategies