THE FAST CHANGINGWORLD OF SCENARIOSFOR CITIES AND TOWNSIN SOUTH AFRICA

Rae WolpeRae Wolpe

World Futures Society

Conference

May 2010Silimela Development Services

www.silimelaafrica.com

City and Regional Scenario Planningmanages creative tensions:

Forecasts and Projections Models

Collective Imagining Scenarios

Collective Deciding VisionsCollective Deciding Visions

Why is long term city planning aworld wide trend?

→Most cities have grown on the assumption oflimitless fossil fuel

→No modern city in current form can be regardedas truly sustainable over the next 20 years

→Example: Vancouver: working back from “bust”

Few cities may even be feasibleas they are now, by 2100!

CURRENT Challenges of localgovernment in South Africa

→Class 1: Very high vulnerability : 25%

→Class 2: High vulnerability: 25%

→Class 3: Medium vulnerability: 25%

→Class 4: Low vulnerability: 25% (excl 6 metros)

Many communities risk beingleft behind by the future 1

→Global warming and desertification

→World’s highest fossil fuel / GDP consumption ratios in bigcities and huge distances between small cities, towns andvillages

→Major shifts in technology will reshape urban systems→Major shifts in technology will reshape urban systems

→Sustained tourism boom for at least another 50 years

→Globalisation will leave behind those towns, cities and regionswhich are not “smart”

Many communities risk beingleft behind by the future 2

→Water and food scarcities

→The widening divide between “haves” and “have not’s”

→Failing education system in context of a world moving into aknowledge economy

→ Growing service delivery protests and political tensions:→ Growing service delivery protests and political tensions:

Current planning systems areweak

→The compulsory Integrated Development Plans(IDPs)are for only 5 years

→General lack of strategic and research capacity todo IDPs

→The vision for the municipality is political“motherhood and apple” pie

→Access and communication difficulties for lesseducated communities struggling with basicneed issues

Benefits of local governmentscenario planning

→ Captures different points of view

→ Is imaginative and captures interest of youth

→ Attracts key government and business decisionmakersmakers

→ De-politicises the future

→ Emphasizes the need for partnership

→ Attracts innovative ideas

→ Common language for debate

Huge integration challenge of localgovernment planning

Elements of the ScenarioPlanning Process

Process

Case Study 1: Gauteng CityRegion Vision 2055

Objectives:

→ Use scenario planning

→ Base debate on best available analysis, supported withglobal benchmarking

→ Get key decision makers involved from the beginning

→ Define a vision based on best case attainable scenario

→ Agree on the strategic choices

→ Implement the choices in ongoing strategic processes

Gauteng Vision 2055 Process Design

Strengths

• Largest urban economy in Africa: the only true Global CityRegion

• Logistics hub of the SADC region of 200 million (growing to300 million by 2030)

• English speaking

• Political, academic and cultural centre• Political, academic and cultural centre

• Gateway between Africa and the world

• Established City Region structures

• Massive investment in Gautrain and Bus Rapid Transport

• Significant revitalisation of Inner City

Weaknesses

• Highest levels of inequality and violent crime in theworld

• 3m people earning less than 1 $ per day, living inshacks & hardest hit by crime & disease

• 1 ½ million structurally unemployed

• Chronic and deepening skills shortage• Chronic and deepening skills shortage

• Weak alignment between government departmentsand spheres

• Very high fossil fuel dependency

• Inefficient urban structure

The Big Surprises

→The Gauteng City Region doubles from itscurrent size of 12-14 m to 25m people by 2055

→Half of the South African population lives in theCity Region by 2055

→At the same time the population of the Africancontinent doubles to 2 billion people and is theworld’s fastest growing region

Best Case Scenario: African KnowledgeCapital

African Vision: 2009 – 2014:The City Region was positioned and geared for the

anticipated ”long boom” in commodity prices and thehigher levels of investment in Africa by setting itself up for

business as a gateway to the African economy.

African Trade and Manufacturing Hub: 2015 – 2024:Because it laid the foundation by getting the basics right in the 2009 to

2014 years, the City Region used its strengths to become a boomingAfrican trade and manufacturing centre.

African Gateway: 2025 – 2034:

Because it was successful as a trade and manufacturinghub, Gauteng began to diversify and became a gateway of

services, information and connections to Africa.

African Knowledge Capital: 2035 – 2055:Because of its gateway role, Gauteng was able todevelop into a global hub for African knowledge,

technology and creative industries.

Business As Usual Scenario: African MegaConurbation

African Dream: 2009-2014Following the recession of 2009, the thousands of workers who lost their

permanent jobs in Gauteng joined the long queue of the millionpeople who had not had a job in the past three years.

African Shopping Centre: 2015 – 2024:African Shopping Centre: 2015 – 2024:Because the City Region did not have the foundations in place, it

struggled to compete with the new rules of sustainability, energyefficiency and changing trade opportunities.

The “long emergency” of escalating energy prices, draconianregulations for cutting carbon emissions, and intensifying climatechange had arrived

African Mega Conurbation Continued

African Island: 2025 -2034:

Because Gauteng was not a trusted gateway to Africa, the City Region becamemore isolated from the opportunities being created on the continent.

Gauteng had been overtaken by a poverty trap too vast to deal with in any five-year term of government. The high carbon emission rating of “Made inGauteng” goods closed off major export markets.

African Mega Conurbation: 2035 -2055

Because Gauteng had become fragmented and isolated, it became a looseBecause Gauteng had become fragmented and isolated, it became a loosecollection of parts that competed with each other for growth, trade andinvestment and at the same time avoided having to deal with social andenvironmental issues.

The City Region was unable to deal with the energy and food security crises, anddaily life became increasingly fragile for the “brave” who continued to visitand live in the world’s most dangerous City Region.

Case Study Two: King SabataDalindyebo Municipality: Eastern Cape

Local Development Challenges 1

→ Very high unemployment…up to 60%

→ Youth, old age and poverty dependency

→ Major disparity between rural and urban

→ Spatial remoteness

→ Institutional complexity→ Institutional complexity→ Mthatha as a former homeland capital

Local Development Challenges 2

→ Municipality struggling to come to termswith

→Basic service delivery

→Infrastructure backlogs

→Financial viability→Financial viability

→Short and long term planning

The Process Intent

Bring together the views and insights of

→Government

→Local business

→Civil society organisations

→Research institutions→Research institutions

…in an inclusive and effective manner in orderto be able to stimulate a useful perspective onthe long term (2030) future.

Key Steps in The ProcessKey Steps in The Process

Research Foundation

→Probabilistic Analysis

→Past KSD socio-economic trends

→Three SA scenario exercises

→Presidency→Presidency

→Dinokeng

→COFISA Eastern Cape

→Many international studies andscenario exercises

Proto Scenarios

Participants were asked: tell us howthese three toddlers in different settingsgrow up to 2030?

ExampleExample

→Lulama, born 15 October2008 in NgangelizweTownship in Mthatha

→22 years old in 2030

What happens toLulama...

→ Completed Matric in Ngangelizwe

→ Received bursary from KSD

→ Has honours in Environmental Science

→ Registered for a Masters degree→ Registered for a Masters degree

→ Learned business skills from local role models

→ Working as a consultant in environmental management

→ Has contributed towards improving natural assets, esp.Rivers

→ Passionate about rebuilding and reclaiming Mthatha

→ Also runs an office in Durban, works remotely

→ Lives in her own flat close to the CBD

What happens to the setting:Mthatha Othathayo 2030

→ Economic infrastructure has improved esp. the completion ofMthatha-Kokstad rail line

→ Public transport system is good→ Airport Upgrades→ Improved Agriculture – food security→ Rail networks links products to markets→ ICT Development→ ICT Development→ Use CCTV (Close Circuit Television)- to fight crime→ Water is clean and recreation areas are good, clean air,

contributing towards good quality of life→ Better housing – through mixed use high density development→ Mthatha has grown due to its strategic location between East

London, Kokstad, Queenstown and enhanced rail system

Participants were then asked: To makethe good things in these stories cometrue, what needs to happen in KSD?

Product = 7 Directions for the Future

1. Fix Mthatha

2. Boost Farming2. Boost Farming

3. Pull Social Development Together

4. Drive Technology- knowledge

5. Launch Tourism

6. Connect up Rail and Road

7. Build Collective Leadership

Participants asked again: How will the 7Directions play out in the 4 ProtoScenarios?

Product = 4 probable and collectivelyimagined scenarios

→ Mihla Ngemihla (Business As Usual)→ Mihla Ngemihla (Business As Usual)

→ Gxaba Gxabiso (Quick Results)

→ Intlakohlazo (Greener than Usual)

→ Inkqubela Phambili Sibambisene (SustainableDevelopment)

BIG BOX OLD TECH GREEN TECH

ON

GRI

DO

FFGRI

D

SERVICE DELIVERY

INVE

STM

ENT

AN

DTE

CHNO

LOGY

People-drivenSocial capital focusRecyclingCultivates localinvestmentCommunity TechnologySmall farm collectives

Some pilot projectsOnly a few benefit

Gated developmentBig Malls

Mega-farmsMass-resorts

Depends on outsideinvestors

Infrastructure BacklogsSubsistence Farms

ON

GRI

DO

FFGRI

D

INVE

STM

ENT

AN

DTE

CHNO

LOGY

Only a few benefitRural community leftbehindGreen town & villagesRelies on government

Subsistence FarmsGrudge Tourism

Little private investmentRelies on government

Scenario Implications

→identified key strategic choices that KSD needsto make.to make.

Reflection and Closure

Final Steering Committee workshop:

→distilled key learning’s from theprocess in regard to long term planningfor KSDfor KSD

→Suggested replication of the process inother communities in SouthAfrica....concept of scenario planningtoolkit

LESSONS LEARNED 1

→Solid research base is critical: no short cuts→Both engagement processes were successful

and can be replicated→High level of interest and participation→Consensus reached quickly on→Consensus reached quickly on

→future threats and opportunities→the choices which need to be made soon

→Both processes stalled once government had tostart digesting approvals

LESSONS LEARNED 2

→Extending the conversation to the broadercommunity: in Gauteng this is starting....

→Managing powerlessness: governmentstruggles to work with itself

→Fragmented delivery of social developmentservices, when this is core issue

→Inability to drive creative industries and→Inability to drive creative industries anddevelopmental tourism

→Education is the Achilles Heel:→Early Childhood Development→Primary Schooling→Vocational Skills

LESSONS LEARNED 3

→Capable long term local partnerships are thekey to unlocking the future....and we don’tknow how to make them happen

→The “sustainable development” scenarioneeds to be:→translated into concrete 5/10/15 year milestone→translated into concrete 5/10/15 year milestone

indicators→coupled with local IDPs and other government

programmes→supported by business, academia and community

organisations

Thank you

Rae Wolpe

rae@silimelaafrica.com

www.silimeelaafrica

082 566 5529