Western Alfalfa & Corn Silage Production: Regional Perspective · Production: Regional Perspective....
Transcript of Western Alfalfa & Corn Silage Production: Regional Perspective · Production: Regional Perspective....
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U.S. Dairy Forage Research CenterU.S. Dairy Forage Research CenterUSDA, Agricultural Research ServiceUSDA, Agricultural Research Service
Neal Martin, Dan Putnam, Neal Martin, Dan Putnam, Glenn Glenn ShewmakerShewmaker and Dan and Dan
UndersanderUndersander
Worlds Forage Analysis Worlds Forage Analysis SuperbowlSuperbowl--2004 2004 Seminar, Madison, WISeminar, Madison, WI
Western Alfalfa & Corn Silage Western Alfalfa & Corn Silage Production: Regional PerspectiveProduction: Regional Perspective
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Seminar OutlineSeminar Outline
Alfalfa productionAlfalfa productionCorn silage productionCorn silage productionEmerging issuesEmerging issues-- Emerging Issues for Alfalfa in California and Emerging Issues for Alfalfa in California and
Arizona, Dan Putnam and Mike OttmanArizona, Dan Putnam and Mike Ottman-- Emerging Issues with Alfalfa in the Pacific Emerging Issues with Alfalfa in the Pacific
Northwest, G. E. Northwest, G. E. Shewmaker Shewmaker et al. et al. http://alfalfa.http://alfalfa.ucdavisucdavis..eduedu//subpagessubpages/2002Symposium/2002WAC./2002Symposium/2002WAC.htmhtm
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Leading Alfalfa Hay Production Leading Alfalfa Hay Production States, 1,000 tons, 2003States, 1,000 tons, 2003
Top 10 States Top 10 States -- 58 % of U. S.58 % of U. S.-- 60 % of Acre60 % of Acre-- 4 states NC4 states NC-- 6 states West6 states West-- 5 Lead Dairy5 Lead Dairy
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CA NE SD IA ID MN WI KS MT MI
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Western Alfalfa Acres, 01Western Alfalfa Acres, 01--03, 1,00003, 1,000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
OR
UT
WA
WY
31 % of US Total
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Western Alfalfa, 01Western Alfalfa, 01--03, 1,000 tons03, 1,000 tons
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AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
OR
UT
WA
WY
40 % of US Total
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OverviewOverview……Industry Trends– Acreage– Demand– Price
Emerging Issues– Water– Environmental– Markets
Conclusions
Industry TrendsIndustry Trends–– AcreageAcreage–– DemandDemand–– PricePrice
Emerging IssuesEmerging Issues–– WaterWater–– EnvironmentalEnvironmental–– MarketsMarkets
ConclusionsConclusionsAlfalfa—Queen of Forages!
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Swainson’s Hawk
Longer Term Trends – CA, AZLonger Term Trends Longer Term Trends –– CA, AZCA, AZ
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CA-AZ YIELD TRENDS
Californiay = 0.0467x - 86.223
R2 = 0.9729
Arizonay = 0.0824x - 156.6
R2 = 0.8935
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Alfalfa Yield TrendsAlfalfa Yield Trends
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CACA--AZ Production TrendsAZ Production TrendsCA-AZ PRODUCTION TRENDS
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All Hay All Hay –– Crop ValueCrop Value
CROP VALUE (US$ All Hay)
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$1.02 billion
$183 million
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LongLong--Term Trends Term Trends –– CA, AZCA, AZ
Likely to remain around 1.2Likely to remain around 1.2--1.4 M acres (2 1.4 M acres (2 states), +/states), +/-- 100,000 acres100,000 acresKey Key ‘‘MegatrendsMegatrends’’-- Cow Numbers/Dairy DemandCow Numbers/Dairy Demand-- Horse NumbersHorse Numbers-- Population Boom, UrbanizationPopulation Boom, Urbanization-- Increased RegulationIncreased Regulation-- Water Availability/TransfersWater Availability/Transfers
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Short Term Trends Short Term Trends –– CA, AZCA, AZ
Huge Jump in Acreage 2001Huge Jump in Acreage 2001--20022002““ModerationModeration”” in Price (not crash)in Price (not crash)Ascendancy of Forage Quality Ascendancy of Forage Quality (typical of lower priced(typical of lower priced--years)years)Acreage likely to remain near this in Acreage likely to remain near this in ’’0303Dairy PriceDairy Price
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Changing U.S. Milk Production
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%
New Mexico
Idaho
Arizona
Nevada
California
Utah
Colorado
Washington
Delaware
Vermont
U.S. Milk Production: Largest Production Increases, 1989-1999*U.S. Milk Production: Largest Production Increases, 1989-1999*
*Preliminary estimate.Source: USDA/NASS, Milk Production.
WMMB
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Dairy ProductionDairy Production--CaliforniaCalifornia
y = 812.7x - 2E+06R2 = 0.9721
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5,000.00
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30,000.00
35,000.00
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Average Rate of Increase: 4.5%/year2000 Percent of 1975: 300%Dairy Cows 2002: 1.55 millionAdditional Milk each year: 813 million lbsThat’s equal to: 10 milllion gal/year
(X million lbs/year)
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Growth of Western Dairying:Growth of Western Dairying:Phenomenal ExpansionPhenomenal Expansion--likely to continuelikely to continueDairyDairy--forage Continuum: Clearly the leading forage Continuum: Clearly the leading agricultural industry in >$5 billion/yr agricultural industry in >$5 billion/yr Impetus: population increases/low cost of Impetus: population increases/low cost of production in Californiaproduction in CaliforniaKey flash points:Key flash points:-- Waste Management/EnvironmentalWaste Management/Environmental-- World Price/Competition/ConsolidationWorld Price/Competition/Consolidation-- Cost of FeedCost of Feed--Western dairies are vulnerableWestern dairies are vulnerable-- WaterWater
Sustainability?Sustainability?
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Where does the Alfalfa Go?Where does the Alfalfa Go?
Key MarketsKey Markets Approximate % Approximate % (California)(California)
Dairy Dairy 7575--85%85%Beef Beef 55--10%10%Sheep/GoatSheep/Goat <2%<2%Horse Horse 55--10%10%ExportsExports 55--8%8%
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Acreage Trends Acreage Trends –– CA, AZCA, AZCA-AZ ACREAGE TRENDS
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CA-AZ YIELD TRENDS
Californiay = 0.0467x - 86.223
R2 = 0.9729
Arizonay = 0.0824x - 156.6
R2 = 0.8935
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Effect of Forage Quality on PriceEffect of Forage Quality on Price(average of all California Markets)(average of all California Markets)
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SUPREME(<27 %ADF)PREMIUM (27-30 %ADF)GOOD (30-32 %ADF)FAIR (32-35 %ADF)Impact of Forage Quality:
Approximately $300 millionIn CA alone.
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Influence of Influence of Quality on Quality on
Intake & MilkIntake & Milk
SOURCE: Robinson and DePeters, 2000. UC-Davis
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WATERWATERQuantity, Availability, PriceQuantity, Availability, Price
Without a doubt….The major issue for Alfalfa
Emerging Issue:
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Water and AlfalfaWater and Alfalfa
2 to 7 Acre Feet Per year Applied2 to 7 Acre Feet Per year AppliedProbably about 5Probably about 5--5.5 AF/year average in CA 5.5 AF/year average in CA –– more in AZ, Southern CAmore in AZ, Southern CAApprox. 15% of CaliforniaApprox. 15% of California’’s Agricultural s Agricultural Water Water –– single highest demand cropsingle highest demand cropLack of Flexibility Lack of Flexibility –– PerennialPerennialDifficult to reduce total water use without Difficult to reduce total water use without reducing yieldreducing yield
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Water and AlfalfaWater and Alfalfa……Not such as dismal story:Not such as dismal story:
High water use related primarily to High water use related primarily to -- AcreageAcreage-- Length of SeasonLength of Season-- High YieldHigh Yield(Alfalfa water use is comparable to most (Alfalfa water use is comparable to most
herbaceous crops when these are factored)herbaceous crops when these are factored)Alfalfa High in WaterAlfalfa High in Water--Use EfficiencyUse EfficiencyDeep roots assure recovery of residual Deep roots assure recovery of residual waterwater
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Key Arizona Water IssuesKey Arizona Water Issues
1980 Arizona Groundwater Code1980 Arizona Groundwater Code——to to reduce reduce groundwater overdraft groundwater overdraft -- Central part of stateCentral part of stateBones of contention Bones of contention –– rights of farmers, rights of farmers, method of calculating water duties method of calculating water duties --irrigation efficiency.irrigation efficiency.Water diversion from rivers by agriculture Water diversion from rivers by agriculture and effect on endangered species (e.g. Gila and effect on endangered species (e.g. Gila River)River)Quality (EC) of water delivered to Mexico in Quality (EC) of water delivered to Mexico in Colorado RiverColorado RiverIndian water rights and effect on other water Indian water rights and effect on other water usesuses
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Key Water Issues in CA:Key Water Issues in CA:(PARTIAL LIST, South to North)(PARTIAL LIST, South to North)
200,000 AF Transfer200,000 AF Transfer from IID to SDfrom IID to SD——largest Aglargest Ag--Urban Urban transfer in history transfer in history –– 1998 but still pending.1998 but still pending.Environmental Environmental surrountingsurrounting the the Salton Sea Salton Sea (keep (keep agricultural drain water)agricultural drain water)CACA’’s Commitment s Commitment not to exceed 4.4 million AFnot to exceed 4.4 million AFAF/year from Colorado River (usually over by 800,000 AF/year from Colorado River (usually over by 800,000 AF or 20%) Key issue for both AZ/CA. AF or 20%) Key issue for both AZ/CA. Pending Long term commitment to transfer Pending Long term commitment to transfer 29% of 29% of Palo VerdePalo Verde water to Los Angeleswater to Los Angeles
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CA Pending Water CA Pending Water Concerns/Constraints:Concerns/Constraints:
(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)
Adjudication of Adjudication of Mojave Desert GroundwaterMojave Desert Groundwater in in conflict with urban demandconflict with urban demandPurchase of water to Purchase of water to restore wildliferestore wildlife habitat in habitat in the S. San Joaquin Valleythe S. San Joaquin ValleyCALFED proposals to CALFED proposals to convert 200,000 acres convert 200,000 acres of Delta farmlandof Delta farmland to restoration of habitatto restoration of habitatFallowing on the Fallowing on the West SideWest Side due to drainage due to drainage and cost issuesand cost issues
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CA Pending Water CA Pending Water Concerns/Constraints:Concerns/Constraints:
(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)
Economic TransfersEconomic Transfers between Sacramento between Sacramento Valley and S. California CitiesValley and S. California CitiesWater purchases maintenance of high Water purchases maintenance of high reservoir levels for CA reservoir levels for CA energy generationenergy generationRestoration of stream flowsRestoration of stream flows, meander of , meander of Sacramento/San Joaquin Rivers by moving Sacramento/San Joaquin Rivers by moving levies, absorbing farmlandlevies, absorbing farmland
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CA Pending Water CA Pending Water Concerns/Constraints:Concerns/Constraints:
(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)
Trinity Lake DiversionsTrinity Lake Diversions questioned due to questioned due to Endangered Species Act.Endangered Species Act.Klamath BasinKlamath Basin Uncertainty due to Endangered Uncertainty due to Endangered Species Act (suckerfish and salmon) ruling to Species Act (suckerfish and salmon) ruling to maintain lake and stream levels.maintain lake and stream levels.Possible Possible listing of Coho salmon as endangered in listing of Coho salmon as endangered in California.California. Potential impact upon both pumping Potential impact upon both pumping supplies and many Intermountain and Sacramento supplies and many Intermountain and Sacramento River watersheds. River watersheds.
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Alfalfa SummaryAlfalfa Summary
Water Constraints, Competitive Crops, Water Constraints, Competitive Crops, Urbanization Approximately Counteracts Urbanization Approximately Counteracts tremendous increase in cow numbers to determine tremendous increase in cow numbers to determine acreageacreageForage Quality to become more important as % in Forage Quality to become more important as % in ration declinesration declinesWater Transfers of various types in our futureWater Transfers of various types in our futureWater Quality issues interact closely with water Water Quality issues interact closely with water supply issuessupply issues
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Corn Silage Production, 2003Corn Silage Production, 2003
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Corn Silage Production in Leading Dairy StatesCorn Silage Production in Leading Dairy States
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Western Corn Silage, 01Western Corn Silage, 01--03, 1000 tons03, 1000 tons
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AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
OR
UT
WA
WY
22 % of US Total
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Western Corn Silage Acres, 01Western Corn Silage Acres, 01--03, 100003, 1000
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CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
OR
UT
WA
WY
14 % of US Total