Wells Fargo Conference Scott W. Smith, President & CEO Richard Robert, EVP & CFO December 8, 2015.
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Transcript of Wells Fargo Conference Scott W. Smith, President & CEO Richard Robert, EVP & CFO December 8, 2015.
Wells Fargo ConferenceScott W. Smith, President & CEO
Richard Robert, EVP & CFO
December 8, 2015
Forward Looking Statements
Statements made by representatives of Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC during the course of this presentation that are not historical facts are forward looking statements. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations made by the Company which reflect management’s experience, estimates and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or anticipated in the forward looking statements. These include risks relating to the satisfaction of the conditions to closing of the acquisition, uncertainties as to timing, financial performance and results, our indebtedness under our revolving credit facility, availability of sufficient cash to pay our distributions and execute our business plan, prices and demand for oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, our ability to replace reserves and efficiently develop our reserves, our ability to make acquisitions on economically acceptable terms and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or implied in the forward looking statements. See “Risk Factors” in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and Item 1A. of Part II “Risk Factors” in our subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and any other public filings and press releases. Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. This presentation has been prepared as of December 2, 2015.
Overview of Vanguard Natural Resources
Asset Profile(1)
Market Valuation
Company Profile (2) (in millions)
COMMON UNITS 130.8 MM
PREFERRED UNITS 13.8 MM
EQUITY MARKET CAP (incl. preferred) $888
TOTAL DEBT(3) $2,318
ENTERPRISE VALUE $3,206
Twenty five strategic acquisitions totaling ~$5.0 bn
~2.55 Tcfe (~425 MMBoe) total proved reserves71% proved developed 32% liquids / 68% gas2013 Production: 212 MMcfe/d2014 Production: 327 MMcfe/dQ4’15E Production: ~500 MMcfe/d
(1) Proved reserves as of 12/31/2014 based on SEC reserve report.(2) Market data as of 12/2/15 and includes 420,000 Class B units. Based off VNR closing price of $5.36.(3) Debt as of 11/9/15.
3
Upstream oil & gas LLC, headquartered in Houston, TX; Initial Public Offering – “VNR” – October 2007 had a Total Enterprise Value of ~$240mm
Monthly distribution of $0.1175 per unit ($1.41 annualized); generates ~26% yield at December 2, 2015 of $5.36;
In 2012, VNR was the first master limited partnership to institute a monthly cash distribution policy, beginning with our July 2012 distribution
In 2013, VNR was the first master limited partnership to issue publicly traded preferred units with its initial 7.875% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units
In total, VNR has raised net proceeds of more than $328 million from three preferred equity offerings
At-the-Market Program (ATM) allows us to systematically sell equity at a much more cost effective means
In 2014, VNR raised net proceeds of more than $148 million via common equity and $1.2 million via preferred equity
Since restarting ATM on March 17, 2015 and thru July 6, 2015 prior to black out window, VNR raised net proceeds of approximately $36 million
Experienced Management Team
4
Name Title Prior Affiliations Years of Experience
Scott W. Smith President and CEO• Ensource Energy• The Wiser Oil Company• San Juan Partners
>34
Richard A. Robert EVP and CFO• Enbridge USA• Midcoast Energy Resources• Various energy-related entrepreneurial ventures
>27
Britt PenceExecutive Vice Presidentof Operations
• Anadarko Petroleum• Greenhill Petroleum• Mobil
>30
Mark Carnes Director of Acquisitions• Synergy Oil & Gas• Petromark• Torch Energy Advisors
>37
Chris Raper Land Manager• Synergy Oil & Gas• Amoco Production
>35
Rod Banks Marketing Manager• Apache Corporation• Mariner Energy• Producers Energy Marketing
>34
Geographically Diversified Reserve Base
Core Areas
Note: Proved reserves as of 12/31/2014 based on SEC reserve report. Reserves and production pro forma for the EROC and LRE transactions and represents Q3 2015 average daily net production.
Overview
Proved Reserves by Area
• ~2.55 Tcfe (~425 MMBoe) proved reserves• 68% gas and 32% liquids • 71% proved developed• R/P is ~14 years
5
~2.55 Tcfe (~425 MMBoe)
- Primarily Natural Gas
- Primarily Oil
Green River Basin• Proved Reserves: 765 Bcfe• 84% gas and 52% Proved
Developed• 134 MMcfe/d net production
Piceance Basin• Proved Reserves: 442
Bcfe• 78% natural gas and
77% Proved Developed• 89 MMcfe/d net
production
Permian Basin• Proved Reserves: 361 Bcfe• 57% liquids and 80% Proved
Developed• 70 MMcfe/d net production
Gulf Coast Basin• Proved Reserves: 271 Bcfe• 54% natural gas and 68%
Proved Developed • 47 MMcfe/d net production
Wind River Basin• Proved Reserves: 37 Bcfe• 82% natural gas and 95% Proved
Developed• 8 MMcfe/d net production
Williston Basin• Proved Reserves: 25 Bcfe• 95% liquids and 96% Proved
Developed• 7 MMcfe/d net production
Powder River Basin• Proved Reserves: 24 Bcfe• 100% natural gas and 77%
Proved Developed• 21 MMcfe/d net production
Big Horn Basin• Proved Reserves: 104 Bcfe• 96% liquids and 95% Proved
Developed• 17 MMcfe/d net production
30%
21%17%
14%
11%
4%
1% 1% 1%
GREEN RIVER
ARKOMA & ANADARKO
PICEANCE
PERMIAN
GULF COAST
BIG HORN
WIND RIVER
WILLISTON
POWDER RIVER
Arkoma & Anadarko Basin• Proved Reserves: 524 Bcfe• 74% gas and 80% Proved
Developed• 120 MMcfe/d net production
VNR Investment Thesis:Disciplined Acquisition Strategy
Strong record of evaluating and integrating assets, completing over $5.0 billion in acquisitions since VNR’s IPO in 2007
Designated business development and acquisition evaluation team
Review between 125-150 and evaluate approximately 50 acquisition candidates each year
Screen ~125-150 opportunities annually
Evaluate ~50
Bid ~40
Close2-8
Prudent Screening Approach
Acquisitions Completed Since IPO in 2007
Asset Profile
6Source: Company disclosure and internal projections(1) Based on Company’s 2007 10-K.(2) Proved reserves based on 2014 10-K; proved reserves and Q3 2015 production pro forma for the EROC and LRE transactions.
2 2 2
8
3
2
4
2
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
($ M
M)
Natural Gas Liquids # of Deals
2007(1) PF 2015(2)
Total Proved Reserves (Bcfe) 67 2,553
%PD 75% 69%
% Liquids 3% 31%
Production (mmcfe/d) 12 513
Pinedale / East Haynesville Returns
7
Pinedale Economics East Haynesville Economics
Even in today’s commodity environment, the Pinedale and East Haynesville generate good rate of returns without assuming any savings on the drilling and completion costs
Budget of $3.8 MM per well (Q3 2015 AFE of $3.25 MM per well)
EUR of ~5.5 Bcfe
Average program rate of return of 25%+
Reserves estimation technique allows for selective participation
Vertical Wells (2 planned) Budget of $2.25 MM per well
(actual cost for the first well was $2.25 MM)
EUR of ~2.25 Bcfe Expected average rate of return in
excess of 50% First vertical well came online in Q3
2015 at an IP 30 rate of 1.9 MMcf of gas per day and 147 barrels of oil per day of production
Horizontal Well (1 planned) Budget of $7.5 MM per well We anticipate seeing an impact in
production from the horizontal well by Q4 2015
Strategy Dependent on Acquisitions
1) Continue to Make Accretive Acquisitions- Take advantage of significant opportunities in Q42015-2016 Large inventory in the U.S. of mature oil and natural gas basins which provide significant
opportunity for future growth and consolidation
2) Commodity Optionality – Today’s commodity environment creates a unique opportunity to buy assets at historically attractive pricing Acquiring assets today provides long-term optionality should prices improve on the base
PDP assets Drilling inventory that is not economic today can be acquired for little to no value
providing future upside potential
3) Sources of Capital – Vanguard has many avenues for capital to complete large and small acquisitions ~$115 MM in liquidity after the Fall Borrowing Base Redetermination of $1.8 billion Option to monetize assets to enhance liquidity (recently acquired SCOOP/STACK
properties) Utilize VNR units to purchase assets and/or other entities (as with LRE and EROC
acquisitions) Partnering with private equity to acquire larger assets Second lien debt Reduction in capital spending Alternative distribution strategies (i.e. fixed/variable model) Opportunistically use at-the-market equity program, which is not disruptive to unit price
and less expensive
8
LRR Energy, L.P. Overview
9
Gulf Coast RegionMid-Continent RegionPermian Region
Mid-Continent Region
· Acreage: 146,753 / 27,338 net
· Proved Reserves: 85.4 Bcfe (39% liquids)
· Q3 2015 Production: 12.8 Mmcfe/d
Gulf Coast Region
· Acreage: 12,837 gross / 8,769 net
· Proved Reserves: 19.9 (33% liquids)
· Q3 2015 Production: 3.6 Mmcfe/d
Permian Region
· Acreage: 149,408 gross / 122,002 net
· Proved Reserves: 97.9 Bcfe (68% liquids)
· Q3 2015 Production: 25.8 Mmcfe/d
Asset Profile (1) Transaction Highlights
• Closing announced on Monday, October 5, 2015
• Total consideration of ~15.4mm VNR common units and the assumption of $290mm in debt
• LRE’s long-life, low-decline, mature assets are well-suited for VNR’s upstream MLP model
• Assets add additional scale in VNR’s existing Permian and Arkoma Basins
• Approximately 1,290 gross producing wells and approximately 158,000 net acres
• Acquisition is immediately accretive to distributable cash flow per unit
Asset Profile (1)
39%
48%
13%NGLs
Oil
Gas
Reserves by Hydrocarbon
Reserves by Category
(1) Proved reserves as of 12/31/14 based on SEC pricing.
88%
12%
PD
PUD
Eagle Rock Energy Partners, L.P. Overview
10
(1) Proved reserves as of 12/31/14 based on SEC pricing.
Transaction Highlights• Closing announced on Thursday, October 8, 2015
• Total consideration of ~28.3mm VNR common units and the assumption of $173.5mm in debt
• Eagle Rock’s long-life, mature assets are well-suited for VNR’s upstream model
• Assets add additional scale in VNR’s existing Gulf Coast and Permian basins and establishes a new operating platform in the SCOOP/STACK play in the Anadarko basin
• Retained experienced personnel from Eagle Rock to expand Vanguard’s employee base
• Approximately 1,778 producing wells and approximately 202,632 net acres
• Acquisition is expected to be neutral to cash flow in 2015 and accretive in 2016 and beyondAsset Profile (1)
Reserves by Hydrocarbon
Reserves by Category
Asset Profile (1)
21%
53%
26%NGLs Oil
Gas
Mid-Continent Assets
Proved Reserves: 331.7 BcfeQ2 2015 Production: 61.6 MMcfe/d% Oil / Gas: 49% / 51%Net Acreage: 150,314Op./Non-Op. Wells: 307 / 1,059
Permian Area
Proved Reserves: 20.0 BcfeQ2 2015 Production: 8.3 Mmcfe/d% Oil / Gas: 67% / 33% Net Acreage: 22,666Op./Non-Op. Wells: 191 / 53
Gulf Coast Area
Proved Reserves: 65.8 BcfeQ2 2015 Production: 12.9 MMcfe/d% Oil / Gas: 79% / 21%Net Acreage: 29,653Op./Non-Op. Wells: 63 / 105
Total Upstream
Proved Reserves: 417.5 BcfeOp. / Non-Op. Wells: 561 / 1,217Q2 2015 Production: 83.1 Mmcfe/dNet Acreage: 202,632
TX
NM OK
LA MS
AR
AL
Mid-Continent Assets
Proved Reserves: 226.9 BcfeQ3 2015 Production: 60.5 MMcfe/d% Liquids / Gas: 37% / 63%Net Acreage: 150,314Op./Non-Op. Wells: 307 / 1,059
Permian Area
Proved Reserves: 21.7 BcfeQ3 2015 Production: 8.0 Mmcfe/d% Liquids / Gas: 66% / 34% Net Acreage: 22,666Op./Non-Op. Wells: 191 / 53
Gulf Coast Area
Proved Reserves: 69.7 BcfeQ3 2015 Production: 15.3 MMcfe/d% Liquids / Gas: 74% / 26%Net Acreage: 29,653Op./Non-Op. Wells: 63 / 105
Total Upstream
Proved Reserves: 318.2 BcfeOp. / Non-Op. Wells: 561 / 1,217Q3 2015 Production: 83.8 Mmcfe/dNet Acreage: 202,632
78%
22%
PD
PUD
EROC Mid-Continent Position
11
Mid-continent comprises ~80% of the proved reserves as of 6/30/15 ~20,000 net acres in the highly prospective oil-weighted South Central Oklahoma Oil
Province (SCOOP) play and ~5,000 net acres in the STACK. Substantially all of EROC acreage is held by production
SCOOP/STACK Asset Map -- ~ 25,000 Net Acres
Attractive Operational OverlapVNR + LRE + EROC Combined
12
Operational Metrics of Pro Forma CompanyVNR + LRE + EROC
Source: Management presentation, company investor presentations, company projections and company websites.(1) Reserves based on 12/31/14 SEC reserve report.
Vanguard LRR Energy PF Vanguard
Reserves(1)
by Category
Reserves by
Hydrocarbon
Q3 2015 Revenue
by Hydrocarb
on (Unhedged
)
203 Bcfe(1)
$30 MM
2,553 Bcfe
$139 MM$91 MM
2,031 Bcfe
Eagle Rock Energy
$18 MM
PDP64%
PDNP4%
PUD32%
PDP73%
PDNP15%
PUD12%
PDP72%
PDNP6%
PUD22%
PDP66%
PDNP5%
PUD29%
318 Bcfe(1)
13
2,553 Bcfe2,031 Bcfe 203 Bcfe (1) 318 Bcfe (1)
39%
48%
13%NGLs
Oil
Gas
21%
53%
26%NGLs Oil
Gas
$34
$51
$6Oil
Gas
NGLs
$13
$4
$1
Oil
Gas
NGLs
$15
$10
$5
Oil
Gas
NGLs
$62
$65
$13
Oil
Gas
NGLs
15%
72%
13%
NGLs Oil
Gas
18%
68%
14%NGLs Oil
Gas
Financial Overview
Historical Yield And Notable AcquisitionsAnd Distribution Activity Since 2007 IPO
15
Source: Bloomberg data as of 11/13/15
Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-150%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Yield
In January 2008,
purchased Permian
assets from Apache for
$73mm
In July 2008,
purchased S. TX
assets from Lewis
Energy for $53mm
In July 2009,
purchased additional S.TX assets from Lewis Energy for
$52mm
In December
2009, purchased Permian
assets for $55mm
In December, completed
merger with ENP
(remaining 53.2%);
$814mm merger
In May, purchased assets in
MS, TX and NM for
$115mm
In December, purchased
100% interest in ENP’s GP and a 46.7% LP interest in
ENP from Denbury for
$380mm Completed $200mm in
other acquisitions
In June, purchased
assets in the Arkoma Basin for $434mm
In December, closed the $329mm
acquisition of assets from Bill
Barrett Corp
In April, closed the $269mm
Permian acquisition from Range Resources
In January, purchased
Pinedale/Jonah assets for $549mm
In August, purchased assets in
North Louisiana and East Texas for
$275mm
In September, purchased assets in the Piceance Basin
for $509mm; borrowing base
increased to $2 bln
Beginning January 2015, reduced
monthly common distribution to $1.41 per unit
annualized
March: $1.78
annualized distribution
October: $2.00
annualized distribution
January: $2.10
annualized distribution
July: $2.20
annualized distribution
September: $2.43
annualized distribution
April: $2.49
annualized distribution
March: $2.52
annualized distribution
October 5th, Vanguard closes merger with LRR
Energy for $413MM
October 8th, Vanguard closes merger deal with Eagle Rock Energy
Partners for $437MM
Pro Forma Capitalization and Liquidity
16(1) Includes pro forma impact of EROC and LRE transactions.(2) LTM EBITDA calculated as of 9/30/15.(3) Based off 2014 year end reserves along with SEC pricing at year end 2014.
Capitalization Table (Current)
($ in millions) Vanguard
Cash $10
Credit Facility 1,6907.875% Senior Notes due 2020 5508.375% Senior Notes due 2019 51Lease Financing Obligations 27Total Debt 2,318
Member's Equity Market CapitalizationCommon and Class B Units 799Series A Preferred Units 43Series B Preferred Units 103Series C Preferred Units 64Total Member's Equity 1,008
Total Capitalization 3,326
Metrics:Net Debt / LTM EBITDA (2) 3.9xNet Debt / Capitalization 69%Net Debt / Proved Reserves ($ / Mcfe) (3) $0.90Net Debt / Proved Developed Reserves ($ / Mcfe) (3) $1.28
Peer G&A and LOE as % of Revenue1H’15
Source: Company 10-Q filings for Q3’15
17
LOE % Of Revenue G&A (cash) % Of Revenue
16.6%19.3% 21.3% 22.3% 20.9%
35.5%
26.5% 24.8% 24.7% 26.9%30.4%
48.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Vanguard Peer Average
4.9% 4.4% 4.9%4.0%
3.0%
5.1%
8.7% 8.7%8.1%
6.9%7.6%
11.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Vanguard Peer Average
Hedges Mitigate Commodity Price Risk
18 Note: Hedge prices reflect a weighted average of swap prices, floor prices on collars and long put prices on three way collars. Charts do not include impact of short puts or RBA’s. Assumes additional production from capital spending in 2015 and beyond.
PF Natural Gas Hedges PF Oil Hedges
Combined transactions modestly improve Vanguard’s hedge book, increasing volumes hedged and increases weighted average price in most years
84%
58%
26%
1%
11%
13%
15% 31%
61%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2015 2016 2017
MM
Btu
Swaps Three Way Collars Unhedged
$4.28
$4.35 $4.19
66%
34%
17%
10%
$83.27
$76.04
6%
$86.71
8%
19%83%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2015 2016 2017
MB
bls
Swaps Collars Puts Three Way Collars Unhedged
16%
41%
A History of Oil Prices
Source: Bloomberg data as of 11/13/15.
19
Oil Historical Pricing Coupled with Forward Curves
Forward Curve at Yearly High
Forward Curve at Year Low
$30
$50
$70
$90
$110
$130
$150
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
$/Bb
l
Current Upstream MLP Yields
Upstream MLP yields range from 17-53%, with a median of 23%
Current Yields
Source: Data as of 11/13/15.(1) LINE distribution suspended.(2) MCEP distribution suspended.
20
53.2%50.8%
24.1% 23.1% 22.4%
17.2%
0.0% 0.0%0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
EVEP ARP MEMP VNR BBEP LGCY LINE MCEP(1) (2)
Investment Questions
Invest In MLPs? Medium To Long-Term Investor?
Current Income Is Important?
Like Potential For Income Growth?
Looking For Tax Advantaged Income?
OK With Getting A K-1?
Invest In Upstream MLPs? Believe Oil/Gas Prices Will Improve?
Believe Better Yield Offsets Commodity Price Risk vs. Fixed Fee Midstream Options?
Can Handle Near Term Unit Price Volatility?
Simply Playing Commodity Prices – Better Alternatives Than Upstream MLP’s?
Believe Inflation Will Increase?
Invest In VNR? Believe Increased Natural Gas Demand Will Ultimately Allow Prices To Improve?
Believe Our Proactive Management Philosophy On Adding Assets In The Current Commodity Price Downturn Will Provide Significant Long-Term Value?
21
Appendix
VNR Basins: North Operated & Non-operated
23
Big Horn Basin Green River Basin Piceance Basin
Powder River Basin Williston Basin Wind River Basin
VNR Basins: South Operated & Non-operated
24
Arkoma & Anadarko Basins
Gulf Coast Basin Permian Basin