Welcome to the The Germans on holiday ITB …...Fun+party holiday + 26% Family vacation + 26% Winter...
Transcript of Welcome to the The Germans on holiday ITB …...Fun+party holiday + 26% Family vacation + 26% Winter...
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Welcome to the
ITB Academy Webinar The Germans on holiday
– Trends from the study
“Reiseanalyse 2015”
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A warm welcome from Kiel!
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Today is about …
Volume of holiday demand
Holiday destinations: Demand and interest
Types of holiday: Demand and interest
Holiday demand trends 2025
Holiday planning and (mobile) internet
Holiday motivation and effects
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Source of our findings: Reiseanalyse 2015
Reiseanalyse 2015 face-to-face
field time: January 2015
7,720 personal interviews;
representative for the German-speaking
population 14+ years in Germany
Reiseanalyse online
field time: May and November 2014
5,000 online interviews in total
representative for the German-speaking
population 14-70 years in Germany
• Covering holiday trips 5+ days and short breaks 2-4 days …
• Regarding travel behaviour, holiday motivation, interests, attitudes …
• To be able to report quantitative aspects …
• And to be able to understand the who, how and why of holiday travel demand in
Germany
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Annually since 1972:
- Vast data basis for analysing developments and trends
- extensive experience and methodological compentence
Non profit: Run by tourism industry association: FUR e.V.
“Crowd-Sourced”:
30 institutions share the costs (around EUR 750.000 per year)
“User-Generated Concept”: User influence on RA developments
Very flexible: Exclusive questions and Modules fit the survey to your
needs
Reiseanalyse characteristics
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Martin Lohmann, Dirk Schmücker, Ulf Sonntag:
German Holiday Travel 2025: Development of
holiday travel demand in the German source
market. (The Reiseanalyse trend analysis).
Edited by Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und
Reisen e.V. Kiel, 2014, ISBN 978-3-9816839-1-2),
EUR 590,00 plus VAT
http://www.fur.de/ra/publications-and-press/german-
holiday-travel-2025/
Reiseanalyse holiday demand trends 2025
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Demand for holiday trips on the German market: Volume
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German-speaking population aged 14 or over,
RA 2015 face-to-face
77,4%
22,6%
German-
speaking
population
70.5 million
“Did you travel on holiday last year, i.e. in 2014, for 5 days or longer?”
15.9 million
54.6 million
Yes, holiday travel
of 5 days or more
No, no holiday travel
of 5 days or more
How many are going on holiday trips?
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German-speaking population aged 14 or over (up to 1989: only West Germany,
from 2010: incl. foreigners); RA 1970-2015, 1954-1969: various surveys
How many are going on holiday trips?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Up to 1
990: w
este
rn G
erm
ans o
nly
Moving
10y average
2014:
77.4%
Stability
Fro
m 2
010: in
cl. f
ore
igners
Share of the population who travelled
on holiday for five days or more at
least once in the past 12 months.
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Holiday trips and short breaks 2014:
Demand figures overview
Holiday trips (5+ days): German-speaking population 14+ years, January to December; Source: RA 2014 and 2015 face-to-face
Short holiday trips (2-4 days): German-speaking population 14-70 years, November to October; Source: RA online 5&11/2013 and 5&11/2014
Year Travellers Holiday trips
per person Holiday trips
Expenditure
p. p. and trip Turnover
2014 54.6 million 1.29 70.3 million € 958 € 67.3 billion
Holiday trips (5 days and more)
Year Short holiday
travellers
Short trips
per person
Short holiday
trips
Expenditure
p. p. and trip Turnover
2014 32.6 million 2.32 75.7 million € 261 € 19.8 billion
Short breaks (2-4 days)
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Trend 2025: Volume key figures
Source: Martin Lohmann, Dirk Schmücker, Ulf Sonntag: German Holiday
Travel 2025: Development of holiday travel demand in the German
source market. (The Reiseanalyse trend analysis).
Holiday trips
2025:
70 million
• Stable/ slighly
declining
• No growth of
holiday travel
propensity
• Holiday travel
frequency declining
Short breaks
2025:
88 million
• Certain potential for
growth
• More trips per
traveller
• More trips of 70+
year old travellers
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Trend 2025: Age structure of travellers
Volume of holiday trips
70+ years +2,2 million trips
60-69 years +4,1 million trips
14-59 years -7,4 million trips
The market share of trips by 60+
years increases from now 30% to
almost 40%
12 Source: Martin Lohmann, Dirk Schmücker, Ulf Sonntag: German Holiday
Travel 2025: Development of holiday travel demand in the German
source market. (The Reiseanalyse trend analysis).
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Holiday trips 2014:
Destinations
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85
46
38
30 29 33 31
15
54
62
70 71 68 69
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Abroad 2025:
67% market share
46.6 million trips
(-2.6 million vs. 2013)
Domestic 2025:
33% market share
23.0 million trips
(+1.5 million vs. 2013)
Trend 2025: Holiday destinations domestic/abroad
Basis: Holiday trips (5+ days) of German-speaking population 14+ years
Source: RA 2015 face-to-face; German Holiday Travel 2025 14
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Non-EuropeanMediterranean
1995
2005
2014
Germany
Holiday destinations (regions) 1995-2014
* Please note: Alps = Alpine regions in Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland
Basis: Holiday trips (5+ days) of German-speaking population 14+ years;
1995, 2005 only Germans.
Source: RA 1996, RA 2006, RA 2015 face-to-face
7%
31%
7%
The Alps*
8%
9%
EuropeanMediterranean
27%
Eastern EuropeLong-hauldestinations
North-westernEurope
9%
8%
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1.6%
1.9%
2.3%
2.9%
3.3%
3.4%
4.9%
7.0%
7.8%
13.5%
USA
Poland
Netherlands
Greece
Croatia
France
Austria
Turkey
Italy
Spain
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
1.3%
1.4%
2.6%
4.0%
4.2%
5.9%
6.0%
Brandenburg
Hessen
NRW
Saxony
Berlin
Baden-W.
Lower Saxony
Schleswig-H.
Bavaria
Meckl.-West P.
Holiday destinations 2014 – TOP 10 in detail
Domestic
Basis: Holiday trips (5+ days) of German-speaking population 14+ years
Source: RA 2015 face-to-face
Abroad
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0,8
1,1
1,5
1,8 1,7
1,9 2,1
1,9
2,2
1,5 1,7
1,2 1,3
3,5
2,9
3,1 3,0 3,1
3,6
2,7 2,5 2,3 2,4
1,8
2,2
2,9
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Egypt Greece
Market shares of Greece and Egypt 2002-2014
Basis: Holiday trips (5+ days) of German population 14+ years
Source: RA 2003 - 2015 face-to-face 17
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30
37
58
44
55
26
38
long-haul
Non-European MED
European MED
Alps
Germany
Eastern Europe
NorthwesternEurope
Jan 15
Jan 05
+
+
+
=
+
-
+
Destination interest next 3 years: Dynamics 2005-2015
Expressed total interest for holiday destinations in the next 3 years
German-speaking population of 14+ years
RA 2005 and RA 2015 face-to-face
in %
18
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6
8
10
11
13
14
18
Iceland
Finland
Ireland
Great Britain
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
2015-2017
2003-2005
+ 63%
+ 90%
+ 84%
+ 25%
+ 50%
+ 108%
+ 156%
in %
Interest in holiday destinations North-western Europe
Expressed total interest for holiday destinations in the next 3 years
German-speaking population of 14+ years
RA 2004 and RA 2015 face-to-face 19
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Interest in holiday destinations: the sub-national level
23%
23%
23%
10%
11%
Expressed total interest for holiday destinations in the next 3 years
German-speaking population of 14+ years
RA 2015 face-to-face 20
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1,6%
2,2%
2004 2014
ASIA* DEMAND:
* Asia = India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, China, Korea,
Japan, Southeast Asia (Thailand, Indonesia. Philippines, New-Guinea)
Basis: Holiday trips (5+ days) of the German-speaking population 14+
yrs. (until 2009 only Germans); Source: RA 2005-2015
7%
14%
2005-2007 2015-2017
ASIA* INTEREST:
* Asia = South Asia (India, Sri Lanka, Maldives etc.), Southeast Asia
(Indonesia, Thailand etc.), East Asia (Japan, China, Korea etc.);
Basis: German-speaking population 14+ yrs. (until 2009 only
Germans); Source: RA 2005-2015
4%
7%
7%
13%
Mongolia
Japan
China
Thailand
INTEREST TO TRAVEL TO
ASIAN COUNTRIES 2015-2017 :
Basis: German-speaking population 14+ yrs.; Source: RA 2015
ASIA on the German holiday market: Demand and Interest
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Bregenz, Austria, Photo: Lohmann, April 2013
Types of holiday:
actual demand and interest
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Holiday trips (5+ days), type of holiday travel (multiple answers) in %,
sparklines without uniform scale, trend: linear regression 2002-2014,
German population 14+ years (without German-speaking foreigners),
Source: RA 2003-2015 face-to-face
2002-2014 Value
2014 Trend
Visiting
realtives/friends 13
Fun/Party
holiday 12
Circular tour 11
Cultural trip 7
Health holiday 5
Study trip 3
2002-2014 Value
2014 Trend
Beach/sun-
bathing holiday 44
Resting holiday 36
Nature holiday 28
Family holiday 27
Adventure
holiday 23
Sightseeing
holiday 16
Active holiday 16
Types of holiday: Demand dynamics 2002-2014
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City break + 49%
Cruise + 27%
Fun+party holiday + 26%
Family vacation + 26%
Winter in the sun + 24%
Fitness holiday - 34%
Health holiday - 30%
Medical spa holiday - 27%
Winter in the snow - 8%
Holiday to relax - 6%
Change rate
total interest
2005 vs. 2015
Types of holiday: Interest dynamics 2005-2014
24 Expressed total interest for types of holidays in the next 3 years
German-speaking population of 14+ years
RA 2005 and RA 2015 face-to-face
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1.2
2.4
Number of high-end holiday trips (million)
1.8
3.4
Share of all holiday trips (%)
5.5
9.5
Total travel expenditure for high-end travel (billion €)
10.4
14.1
Share of total travel expenditure (%)
Holiday trips with total expenditure ≥ € 3,000 per person
2014
2004
Basis: Holiday trips (5+ days) of German-speaking population 14+ years
Source: RA 2005 and RA 2015 face-to-face 25
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(Mobiles)
Internet und
Urlaubsreisen
26
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Internet access in total and use of mobile internet
27
22%
31%
39% 43%
47%
53% 54% 56%
62% 63% 68% 70%
73% 74% 77% 78%
13%
24%
38%
52% 56%
8%
14%
27%
41%
50%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Internet access Use of mobile internet Therein: Smartphone/tablet
German-speaking population aged 14 or over,
RA 2000 - RA 2015 face-to-face
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36 39 37
45 45 47 50
73
14 16 17
23 24 27 29
54
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 [...] 2025
Trend 2025: Internet use and holiday planning
28
Used the internet within the last
12 month to gather information
regarding holiday travel
in %
Used the internet within the last
12 month to book holiday travel
services
German-speaking population aged 14 or over,
RA 2009 - RA 2015 face-to-face; German Holiday Travel 2025
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8 11 14 15 18 28 9
11 16 19
21
39
42 39
35 33
30
19 41 39 34 33 29
14
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 […] 2025
Online: OTAs etc. Online: Other Offline: Travel agencies Offline: Other
Trends 2025: Holiday booking channels
in %
29 Basis: Pre-booked holiday trips (5+ days) of German-speaking population 14+ years
Source: RA 2007 - 2015 face-to-face; German Holiday Travel 2025
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45% 38%
48%
73%
55%
30%
9%
34% 40%
59%
Age group
Household net
income
Mobile internet use during holiday trips 2014:
How many?
Basis: Main holiday trips 2014 (5+ days) of German-speaking population 14+ years,
Source: RA 2015 face-to-face
Destination
30
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Travellers who used the mobile internet during their trips for holiday information or
booking; Source: RA online 11/2014
84%
76%
65%
62%
51%
49%
47%
35%
19%
16%
15%
15%
14%
10%
7%
Weather
What's App etc.
Navigation
Destination information
Facebook etc.
News
Schedules (plane, train)
Translator
Accommodation information
Ski, hike etc. information
Transport booking
Restaurant etc. reservation
Accommodation booking
Event/Skipass booking
Booking /
Reservation
31
Mobile internet use during holiday trips 2014:
How?
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Holiday motivations, attitudes, effects
32
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Female Male
Distance from everyday life 67% 64%
Charging new energy 63% 58%
Time for one another 54% 51%
Being pampered, enjoying myself 51% 47%
Diversity, experience a lot 39% 41%
Going places, travelling 37% 40%
Do something for my beauty 35% 29%
Cultural knowledge and education 28% 25%
Flirt, erotic adventures 11% 16%
Sport activities 6% 12%
Why we travel:
Holiday motivations male/female
33 German-speaking population aged 14 or over,
RA 2015 face-to-face
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15%
27%
35%
12%
11%
Totally 2 3 4 Not at all
20%
29% 32%
9%
9%
Totally 2 3 4 Not at all
„My holiday should be as ecologically
compatible, ressource-efficient and
environmently friendly as possible.“
„My holiday should be as socially
acceptable as possible.“
Attitudes concerning sustainable holiday travel
More information: www.bmub.bund.de/N51279/
34 German-speaking population aged 14 or over,
RA 2015 face-to-face
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Happiness
44%
Health
47%
Recuperation
75%
I came back from
this holiday trip
recuperated.
This holiday trip had
positive effects on my
physical health.
How we return: Effects of holiday travel
I have experienced
moments of genuine
happiness during this
holiday trip.
Basis: Main holiday trips 2014 (5+ days) of German-speaking population 14+ years,
Source: RA 2015 face-to-face 35
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If you want to play on the German market it‘s good to know what‘s
happening
Good and up-to-date market data are important, …
to not only know the status-quo, but also developments and trends.
to be able to analyse your own segment en detail
Market Volume: in total very stable and reliable; individually need for
distraction
Holiday destinations: Stability for the big players. Good chances e.g. for
long-haul destinations and destinations in North-western Europe
Types of holiday: sun&beach! In almost any case: Not too boring, not too
exhausting
Changes in holiday planning
„Lessons learned“
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Tourism demand in 2025: The customers
Source:
Martin Lohmann, Dirk Schmücker, Ulf Sonntag: German holiday travel 2025: Development of
holiday travel demand in the German source market (The Reiseanalyse trend analysis)
Fewer Older
More diverse
Also with
child(ren)
Always online
Motivated and
interested Multi-optional Diversity wanted More competent
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www.reiseanalyse.de
Publication I:
German Holiday Travel 2025
(Reiseanalyse Trend Analysis)
Publication II:
RA 2014 English Summary
Trend presentations and workshops
Reiseanalyse 2015/2016:
The whole deal
This was only a small glimpse! Looking for more?
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Thank you very much!
Questions?
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FUR Forschungsgemeinschaft
Urlaub und Reisen e.V.
Fleethörn 23
D-24103 Kiel
Tel.: +49 (0)431 88888 00
Fax: +49 (0)431 8888 679
E-Mail: [email protected]
Website: www.reiseanalyse.de
ITB Academy
ITB Berlin –
The World's Leading Travel Trade Show®
Messe Berlin GmbH
Messedamm 22
14055 Berlin
Tel.: + 49 (0)30 - 3038-2528
Jessica Varga
E-Mail: [email protected]
Website: www.itb-berlin.de/academy
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