Dr Abdou ALI, HydrometeologistDr Abdou ALI, Hydrometeologist

PB 11011, AGRHYMET, Niamey, NigerPB 11011, AGRHYMET, Niamey, Niger

a.ali@agrhymet.nea.ali@agrhymet.ne

Welcome to AGRHYMETWelcome to AGRHYMET

Outline

• Drought in the Sahelian region/ AGRHYMET creation

• Drought Monitoring policies

• Drought response policies

• Drought impact mitigation practices

Equateur

10°NPersistance d’années

humides

Persistance d’années sèches

Abrupt change from very wet to very

dry years

Another mode of interanual variability seems to be established in the Sahel

Severe drought started in 1970

In 1985, for the first time the Niger River flow stopped

5WMO Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for DroughtLincoln, Nebraska, USA, 8-11 December 2009

Drought in the Sahel, generally occurs at Drought in the Sahel, generally occurs at regional scaleregional scale

Drought severity and its spatial extent

High sensitivity of the region to the rainy season

• The Sahelian region has only one rainy season /year (from June to October, but more 85% of the total rainfall falls between in July, August and September)

• More than 90% of Sahelian agriculture are rainfed

• Less than 5% of surface water resources are controlled

• In general, below the average rainfall is damageable for agriculture and the water resource availability

• AGRHYMET was created in 1974, following the catastrophic droughts of the early 1970’s,at its creation, 9 member states: Burkina, Cape Verde, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal.

• AGRHYMET is becoming a technical arm for The Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) thus is extending its activities to the cover all the 17 CILSS/ECOWAS countries

AGRHYMET creation and Area of intervention

AGRHYMET = AGRrometeorology, HYdrology, METeorology

• To collect and process data and disseminate information on:

– food security,– water resource management – desertification control – and climate change impacts;

• To build technical capacities through training and transfer of tools, methods adapted to the Sahelian countries in

– climatology,– Agrometeorology– hydrology– information technology– crop protection,– Geomatics

• To strengthen interstate co-operation by sharing methodologies and technologies between member states

The AGRHYMET Regional Centre’s mandate

Drought risk management policies in WA: difficult to dissociate the national and regional processes

• In West-Africa, drought risk management is an integrated and participative process: AGRHYMET program

• Drought monitoring and Early Warning as well as drought impact management are made as in participatory way.

• Drought remains an excellent regional integration factor

Technical and political structures: regional /national integrated drought risk management system

Technical structures for monitoring and early warning– AGRHYMET regional program– Multidisciplinary working group (GTP) in each

country lead the DMNThere is hydro meteorological data sharing policy

Structures for decision making in drought impact Management

– PREGEC at the regional level lead by CILSS– SAP at the national level lead the prime ministers

Again the technical and political structures are well integrated

Monitoring and Early Warning

• The active period of the monitoring activities extends from May to October

• The drought monitoring and early warning activities are based on the use of field data, satellite products and hydrological and agrometeorological models

• The first step is the Seasonal rainfall and hydrological forecasts in May

Policy from Seasonal forecasts

• Hydro- agrometeorological advice (Mali experience is the well known most successful case in West-Africa)

• Early or late onset, length of the rainy season: specification and advice the choice of seed variety

• Potential wet rainy: promote the use of plateau area for agricultural activities instead of shallow area and recommendation to the necessary fertilizers

• Potential dry year: recommend shallow area, practice of soil and water conservation techniques (Half-moon and Zaï in particulary)

Monitoring and Early Warning by GTP and AGRHYMET

Then from June to October

• 10-day monitoring of the rainfall situation (field data and satellite products)

• 10-day monitoring the progress of sowing and the crop water satisfaction (field data and agrometeorological models)

• 10-day monitoring of the pastures situation (Vegetation Indices)

• Monitoring the locust situation (Rainfall maps + Vegetation Indices)

• In September crop and biomass yield forecasting

• Joint pre-harvest assessment missions in the field (FAO,WFP, FEWSNET)

• In September Identification of risk zones (Synthesis of all the products)

• The process includes methodological and financial support to national agricultural statistics collection and analysis

Monitoring and Early Warning by GTP and AGRHYMET

14

Field verificationFailed millet crop in Niger

27th September 2009

Drought early warning: deficit areas

2009

2010

In case of severe dry spell

Some countries in the region (including Burkina-Faso; Senegal, Mali) conduct cloud seeding operations. On this specific area, the national components lead the regional one (APENS) which is under development

Regional quantitative food balance assessment in November

Regional meeting of decision makers and other stakeholders meeting and other stakeholders (in general ministers of Agriculture of countries) to see which actions should be undertaken

Annual consultative meeting in Early November

But the mitigation decisions are implemented at the national level

Use of the Household vulnerability Harmonized Framework which integrates:

•SVS (Vulnerability monitoring in the Sahel developed at AGRHYMET);

•VAM (WFP vulnerability assessment mapping);

•SICIAV (FAO Food security and vulnerability information and mapping system),

•FEWSNET household food economy

to target vulnerable populations

Drought impact management at the end of the rainy season

Response to a drought situation

Response to a drought situation

• Use of stocks for food distribution to vulnerable population, some time freely and some time with low price;

• Policy to promote transboundary exchange (ECOWAS policies)

• Mobilization of donors

Drought impact mitigation practices

Main drought mitigation policies

• Soil and water conservation program (half moon, Zaï) in each country

–

• Reafforestation program conducted in each

• Drought resilient seed variety development (Agricultural Research National Centers and ICRISAT at regional scale)

• Small irrigation development (PRAPIS) program

• NUSSAPS : implementation and monitoring of nutritional policies and strategies

Grass seeding and tree planting on degraded land

Half moon and Zaï techniques in Burkina-Faso

Reference documents

• National Agricultural policy: become recently PNIA (National Agricultural Investment program) and PRIA (Regional Agricultural Investment program) at the regional level

• National Environmental protection and conservation policies

• PANA for climate change adaptation policies

Conclusion• Drought response is not much proactive

– Time to mobilize donors

• This existing system need to be strengthened

Warning issued in 2009

2009

Real response started in May