Weekly Update 24 Sept 2011

8/4/2019 Weekly Update 24 Sept 2011

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WEEKLY TRADING HIGHLIGHTS & OUTLOOK 24 Sept, 11

1

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened the week on tentative note and registered an intraweek high of 5168 levels. The Index witnessed selling pressure from the higher level which led it to decline to an intraweek low of 4829 levels. The Nifty finally closed at 4867 with a loss of 216 points.

The most important observation is that the index has registered a breakdown from its trading

range of 4900 -5170. This breakdown suggests that the index is likely to decline towards thelevel of 4840 /4800 /4750-4720 (recent swing low) levels in the near term.

Further it is to be noted that the index has witnessed a sharp fall of more than 250 points in the

last 2 sessions which has stretched the short term indicators into an oversold territory.Hence a

pullback from the current level cannot be ruled out. Any up move from the current level is likely

to face stiff resistance around the 4910 followed by the 4970 / 5025 /5060 levels.

A close below the recent swing low of 4720 levels would accentuate the declining momentum

towards the level of 4675 /4600 levels.

S&P CNX NIFTY

OPEN 5068.40

HIGH 5168.40

LOW 4829.60

CLOSE 4867.75

Change(pts) -216.50

Change (%) -4.26%




2

MARKET OUTLOOK

The Sensex opened the week on tentative and registered an intraweek high of 17191 levels. The

Index witnessed selling pressure from the higher level which led it to decline to an intraweek lowof 16052 levels. The Sensex finally closed at 16162 with a loss of 771 points.

The most important observation is that the index has registered a breakdown from its trading

range of 16380 -17360. This breakdown suggests that the index is likely to decline towards thelevel of 16070 / 15850 -15765 (recent swing low) levels in the near term.

Further it is to be noted that the index has witnessed a sharp fall of more than 900 points in the

last 2 sessions which has stretched the short term indicators into an oversold territory.Hence a

pullback from the current level cannot be ruled out. Any up move from the current level is likely

to face stiff resistance around the 16400 followed by the 16545/16720 /16830 levels.

A close below the recent swing low of 15765 levels would accentuate the declining momentum

towards the level of 15650 /15360 levels.

Key Levels & Averages

INDEX Close Support-1 Support-2 Resistance-1 Resistance-2 8 DMA 34 DMA 200 DMA

SENSEX 16162 16070 15850 16400 16545 16639 16932 18397 NIFTY 4867 4800 4720 4910 4970 5003 5087 5520

BANK-NIFTY 9375 9260 9100 9570 9760 9600 9828 10814

BSE - SENSEX

OPEN 16865.93

HIGH 17191.12

LOW 16052.47

CLOSE 16162.06

Change(pts) 771.77

Change (%) -4.56%




3

TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS

Bank NIFTY Ltd. CMP— 9375.70

Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-

The overall movement of bank nifty has taken the form of double top Bearish reversal pattern. This pattern would be

confirmed once the index breaks the support level of 9260 levels. The measuring implication of the pattern suggests

that the index could d ecline towards the level of 9100 / 8960 /8920(recent swing low) / 8700 levels.

In case the index man ages to hold on to the sup port level of 9260 then it could be confined in a range of 9200 -9970.

Housing Developm ent Finance Corporation Ltd (HDFC) CMP—` 625.00


The Share price of HDFC Ltd has been consolidating within broad ranges of `612.4 to `732 levels. But, the key

observation to be made is that the price of HDFC Ltd has formed a h ead and shoulder pattern on the D aily charts. A

breakdow n from the said pattern would be confirmed w hen the price breaks below the neckline level of `623.5 levels.

The momentum indicator is also in sell mode. The prices of HDFC Ltd will face severe selling pressure once it starts

trading below the n eckline level of `623.5 levels.

We recommend traders to sell 50% below `623.5 and again in the range of `632 – `636levels with a stop loss placed

above `645.6 levels for targets of `600 – ̀ 582 levels, expected to be achieved in coming few Sessions

CLOSE (CMP) 9375.70

SUPPORT-1 9260

SUPPORT-2 9100

RESISTANCE-1 9570

RESISTANCE-2 9760

CLOSE (`CMP) 625.00

SUPPORT-1 600.00

SUPPORT-2 582.00

RESISTANCE-1 636.00

RESISTANCE-2 645.60

52 week-High 860.80

52 week-Low 582.30




4

IDBI Bank Ltd. CMP - ` 103.00


On the w eekly chart of the IDBI BANK the stock is forming a reverse Flag form ation. Traders should note that Reverse

Flags generally occur as consolidation pattern during a down trend and a breakdown suggests continuation of the

recent down move. Once the stock sustains be low 101.8 then the stock is likely to test the levels of ` 90/ `82.

We recom mend traders to sell 50% below`101.8 and again in the range of `103-- – `104 levels with a stop loss placed

above `106.2 levels for targets of `96 – `92 levels, expected to be achieved in com ing few Sessions.

Reliance Industries Ltd. CMP— ` 770.60


The price of Reliance Ind. has made a double top formation and fell sharply from a high of `853.8 levels during last

week. The double top formation is also backed by a heavy volume in the stock. The momentum indicator is also inbearish zone. Thus, all of the above technical evidence is suggesting a trend reversal.

We recommend traders to sell 50% now and again in the range of `780-- – `785 levels with a stop loss placed above

`795.6 levels for targets of `742 – `720 levels, expected to be achieved in coming few S essions.

CLOSE (`CMP) 103.00

SUPPORT-1 96.00

SUPPORT-2 92.00

RESISTANCE-1 106.20

RESISTANCE-2 108

52 week-High 202.25

52 week-Low 101.65

CLOSE (`CMP) 770.60

SUPPORT-1 742.00

SUPPORT-2 720.00

RESISTANCE1 785.00

RESISTANCE2 795.60

52 week-High 1124.90

52 week-Low 712.00




5

ACC Ltd. CMP—` 1069.25


The share p rice of ACC Ltd has already bee n moving u p for the last few days and is v ery likely that the stock price will

test its immediate resistance of ` 1135 - ` 1142.5 in the next few day s. The mom entum indicators remain in the rising

trajectory and indicate strength in the current up-move. The stock is also sustaining above its Cluster moving

averages.

We recommend traders to buy only in the case of any pullback in the market , buy 50% now and again on dips up to

1060--1055 levels with a stop loss placed below ` 1037.8 levels for targets of `1110 – `1140 levels.

Disclaimer

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CLOSE (`CMP) 1069.25

SUPPORT-1 1055

SUPPORT-2 1037

RESISTANCE1 1110

RESISTANCE2 1140

52 week-High 1144.00

52 week-Low 917.60

Weekly Update 24 Sept 2011

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Transcript of Weekly Update 24 Sept 2011