Weekly System Status Report 2020 w24 · Year 01 Jan to 14 Jun Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31...
5
Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5 Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 24 (08/06/2020 – 14/06/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Date Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Mon 08/Jun/2020 34,532 436 29,671 30,834 12.0% 13.4% -3.8% Tue 09/Jun/2020 35,563 502 29,480 29,740 19.6% 21.3% -0.9% Wed 10/Jun/2020 37,107 474 29,867 29,566 25.5% 27.1% 1.0% Thu 11/Jun/2020 35,170 505 29,662 30,417 15.6% 17.3% -2.5% Fri 12/Jun/2020 35,725 459 30,630 31,517 13.4% 14.8% -2.8% Sat 13/Jun/2020 33,268 328 30,208 31,112 6.9% 8.0% -2.9% Sun 14/Jun/2020 32,809 458 29,685 30,731 6.8% 8.3% -3.4% Date Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) RSA Contracted Load Forecast (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Mon 08/Jun/2020 35,194 436 30,404 31,496 11.7% 13.1% -3.5% Tue 09/Jun/2020 37,303 502 31,150 31,480 18.5% 20.1% -1.0% Wed 10/Jun/2020 38,994 474 31,931 31,453 24.0% 25.5% 1.5% Thu 11/Jun/2020 36,654 505 31,407 31,901 14.9% 16.5% -1.5% Fri 12/Jun/2020 36,730 459 31,450 32,522 12.9% 14.4% -3.3% Sat 13/Jun/2020 33,833 328 30,754 31,678 6.8% 7.8% -2.9% Sun 14/Jun/2020 33,662 458 30,545 31,584 6.6% 8.0% -3.3% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. 2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. 3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. 4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). 5. These figures do not include any demand side products. 6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.
Transcript of Weekly System Status Report 2020 w24 · Year 01 Jan to 14 Jun Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31...
Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5
Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 24 (08/06/2020 – 14/06/2020)
Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand
DateAvailable
Dispatchable Generation (MW)
Non-commercial Generation (MW)
Residual Load Forecast (MW)
Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl
IOS
Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)
Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-
Commercial Units)
Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand)
Mon 08/Jun/2020 34,532 436 29,671 30,834 12.0% 13.4% -3.8%Tue 09/Jun/2020 35,563 502 29,480 29,740 19.6% 21.3% -0.9%Wed 10/Jun/2020 37,107 474 29,867 29,566 25.5% 27.1% 1.0%Thu 11/Jun/2020 35,170 505 29,662 30,417 15.6% 17.3% -2.5%Fri 12/Jun/2020 35,725 459 30,630 31,517 13.4% 14.8% -2.8%Sat 13/Jun/2020 33,268 328 30,208 31,112 6.9% 8.0% -2.9%
Sun 14/Jun/2020 32,809 458 29,685 30,731 6.8% 8.3% -3.4%
DateTotal Available Generation Incl
Renewables (MW)
Non-commercial Generation (MW)
RSA Contracted
Load Forecast (MW)
Actual RSA Contracted Demand
(MW) Incl IOS
Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)
Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-
Commercial Units)
Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted
Demand)
Mon 08/Jun/2020 35,194 436 30,404 31,496 11.7% 13.1% -3.5%Tue 09/Jun/2020 37,303 502 31,150 31,480 18.5% 20.1% -1.0%Wed 10/Jun/2020 38,994 474 31,931 31,453 24.0% 25.5% 1.5%Thu 11/Jun/2020 36,654 505 31,407 31,901 14.9% 16.5% -1.5%Fri 12/Jun/2020 36,730 459 31,450 32,522 12.9% 14.4% -3.3%Sat 13/Jun/2020 33,833 328 30,754 31,678 6.8% 7.8% -2.9%
Sun 14/Jun/2020 33,662 458 30,545 31,584 6.6% 8.0% -3.3% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all
emergency generation resources.
2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables.
3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation.
4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units).
5. These figures do not include any demand side products.
6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.
Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 2 of 5
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]
Energy Sent Out 4,139 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -6.66 %
Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.85 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)
Week 24 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics
Year 01 Jan to 14 Jun Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 104,453 229,552 GWh2016 103,148 226,721 GWh2017 101,770 225,203 GWh2018 101,092 224,202 GWh2019 99,528 219,563 GWh
2020 (YTD) 91,263 GWh
Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics
Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]
Energy Demand 4,142 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -6.68 %
Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.62 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)
Week 24 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)
Year 01 Jan to 14 Jun Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 105,582 231,154 GWh2016 103,196 226,808 GWh2017 101,774 225,248 GWh2018 101,161 224,594 GWh2019 100,224 220,924 GWh
2020 (YTD) 92,133 GWh
Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]
Energy Demand 4,382 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -5.77 %
Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.25 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)
Week 24 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)
Year 01 Jan to 14 Jun Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 109,062 239,545 GWh2016 107,838 238,069 GWh2017 106,436 235,426 GWh2018 105,898 235,482 GWh2019 105,247 232,511 GWh
2020 (YTD) 97,129 GWh
Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)
Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 3 of 5
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]
Peak Demand 31,517 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -3.57 %
Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -4.68 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)
Week 24 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics
Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Tue 28-Jul-2015 33,343 MW2016 Thu 04-Aug-2016 34,181 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,457 MW2018 Mon 16-Jul-2018 34,256 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,066 MW
2020 (YTD) Fri 12-Jun-2020 31,517 MW
Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics
Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]
Peak Demand 31,517 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -5.27 %
Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -6.61 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)
Week 24 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)
Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,145 MW2016 Thu 07-Jul-2016 34,488 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,517 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 34,907 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,746 MW
2020 (YTD) Fri 12-Jun-2020 31,517 MW
Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]
Peak Demand 32,522 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -4.12 %
Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -5.76 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)
Week 24 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)
Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,499 MW2016 Mon 30-May-2016 34,913 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,769 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 35,345 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 34,510 MW
2020 (YTD) Fri 12-Jun-2020 32,522 MW
Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)
Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 4 of 5
Risk Level Description
Green Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves.Yellow < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves
Orange 1 001MW – 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand
Red > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves
MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MWWeek Start Week RSA
Contracted Forecast
Residual Forecast
Available Dispatchable
Capacity
Available Capacity (Less
OR and UA)
Planned Maintenance
Unplanned Outage
Assumption (UA)
Planned Risk Level
(-13200 MW)
Likely Risk Senario
(-15200 MW)15-Jun-20 25 32161 31016 45647 32447 2875 11000 1430 -57022-Jun-20 26 31683 30450 43627 30427 4895 11000 -24 -202429-Jun-20 27 31863 30814 43717 30517 4805 11000 -297 -229706-Jul-20 28 31647 30611 43579 30379 4943 11000 -232 -223213-Jul-20 29 32086 31049 43721 30521 4801 11000 -529 -252920-Jul-20 30 32295 31258 43583 30383 4938 11000 -875 -287527-Jul-20 31 31935 30899 42852 29652 5670 11000 -1247 -324703-Aug-20 32 31518 30376 43361 30161 5160 11000 -215 -221510-Aug-20 33 31654 30512 42930 29730 5592 11000 -782 -278217-Aug-20 34 31011 29869 42930 29730 5592 11000 -139 -213924-Aug-20 35 30871 29728 42412 29212 6110 11000 -517 -251731-Aug-20 36 31657 30291 42858 29658 5664 11000 -634 -263407-Sep-20 37 31902 30537 42841 29641 5681 11000 -896 -289614-Sep-20 38 31557 30192 42224 29024 6298 11000 -1168 -3168
Weekly Generation Availability
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 YTD 2019
Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 61.50 64.23 65.12 59.50 62.95 66.72 67.82 65.93 71.28 70.59 70.67 71.74 73.24 73.41 65.18 66.93
Planned Outage Factor 9.78 8.36 10.37 21.86 17.71 13.14 13.38 9.11 5.42 4.87 8.31 6.98 4.12 4.95 9.37 9.94
Unplanned Outage Factor 27.28 26.18 23.21 16.77 17.68 18.34 16.36 20.87 19.42 19.92 15.93 16.42 18.29 17.42 23.03 21.57
Other Outage Factor 1.44 1.23 1.30 1.87 1.66 1.80 2.44 4.09 3.88 4.62 5.09 4.86 4.35 4.22 2.42 1.56
Week Annual (Jan - Dec)
EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week) Three Month Outlook This is the forecast demand vs. available generating capacity for each week for 3 months ahead. Colour codes ranging from Green (no shortage) to Red (worst case) are used to indicate the absence or presence of a capacity constraint.
Notes - Assumptions critical: The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This “likely risk scenario” includes an additional 2000 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected imports at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly residual peak forecast, which excludes the expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve (OR) from Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA): 11 000 MW Reserves: OR + UA = 13 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 47 517 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 48 522 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa). Key:
Medium Term Peak Demand/Capacity Forecast Please go to the link below for the Medium-term System Adequacy Outlook - 2020 to 2024. Download the Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2020 to 2024 (Published 30 October 2019).
Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 5 of 5
500.02,032.12,111.74,665.5
Current Installed Capacity (MW)CSPPV
Wind (Eskom+IPP)Total (Incl other REs)
Renewable Energy Statistics Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning
Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)
Maximum 502.1 1,556.0 1,904.3 3,530.6
Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 07-Apr-2020 12:00 25-May-2020 13:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00
Maximum 200.9 1,350.5 1,229.8 2,576.3
Max Date 11-Aug-2016 14:00 16-Dec-2016 12:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00
Maximum 302.0 1,432.5 1,708.2 3,142.7
Max Date 07-Nov-2017 10:00 27-Oct-2017 12:00 25-Dec-2017 18:00 13-Dec-2017 13:00
Maximum 399.7 1,392.1 1,902.3 3,298.9
Max Date 04-Dec-2018 16:00 03-Oct-2018 12:00 02-Oct-2018 16:00 28-Sep-2018 11:00
Maximum 502.1 1,375.6 1,872.0 3,530.6
Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 19-Jan-2019 12:00 14-Dec-2019 15:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00
Maximum 500.2 1,556.0 1,904.3 3,406.1
Max Date 27-Jan-2020 14:00 07-Apr-2020 12:00 25-May-2020 13:00 06-Apr-2020 13:00
Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)
All Time
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)
Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)
All Time
Maximum
Annual
Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945
6,951,2612016Total
Energy529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771
2017Total
Energy687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632
10,887,9022018Total
Energy1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095
2019Total
Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945
5,292,0192020Total
Energy699,515 1,711,939 2,838,020
Cal Year Indicator Total (Incl other REs)
Maximum 1,464
Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019
Maximum 828
Max Date 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016
Maximum 1,038
Max Date 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017
Maximum 1,336
Max Date 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018
Maximum 1,464
Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019
Maximum 1,459
Max Date 24-May-2020 to 25-May-2020
Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) -
based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)
All Time
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
