Weekly Outlook 250710

8/9/2019 Weekly Outlook 250710

1/5The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

Calendar GMT Event Mkt Risk Exp Prev Remarks

Monday 2300 AU Producer price index Q2 Ccy Med 0.8 1.0 AUDUSD risk barometer (2 day)

1400 US New home sales Jun C/E Med 315K 300K Watch MoM figure

uesday 0000 AU Confidence board leading index May C/E Med AUDUSD intraday

0600 EU GFK consumer confidence survey Aug Equ Med 3.5 3.4 DAX intraday

CH UBS consumption indicator Ccy Med 1.737 Watch USDCHF1300 US Case Shiller home prices May Equ Med 144.56 S&P, DAX sympathy

1400 US Consumer confidence Jul C/E High 51.0 52.9 S&P, USD risk barometer (2 day)

Wednesday EU German consumer price index Jul C/E High 0.9% ESX, DAX risk barometer (2 day)

0130 AU Consumer price index Q2 YoY Ccy High 3.4 2.9 AUD, NZD risk barometer (2 day)

1230 US Durable goods Jun C/E High 1.0 -0.6r USD, S&P, DAX sympathy (watch ex-tr

1430 US EIA petroleum status report Oil High

2100 NZ RBNZ rate decision Jul 29 Ccy High 3.00 2.75 NZD risk barometer (1m)

2245 NZ Trade balance Jun Ccy Med 368M 814M NZD risk barometer (2 day)

2350 JP Retail trade Jun YoY Ccy Med 3.2 2.8 USDJPY risk barometer (2 day)

hursday 0100 AU New home sales Jun Ccy Med -6.4 AUD, NZD risk barometer (2 day)

0755 EU German unemployment change Jul C/E High -20K -21K Euro, ESX, DAX, S&P risk barometer (3

0830 UK Net consumer credit Jun Ccy Med 0.2B 0.3B GBPUSD risk barometer (2 day)UK Mortgage approvals Jun Ccy Med 48.5K 49.8K GBPUSD risk barometer (2 day)

0900 EU Industrial confidence Jul C/E Med -5 -6 ESX, DAX intraday

EU Economic confidence Jul C/E Med 99.1 98.7 ESX, DAX intraday

EU Services confidence Jul C/E Med 5 4 ESX, DAX intraday

2301 UK GFK consumer confidence survey Jul Ccy Med -20 -19 GBPUSD intraday

2330 JP Consumer price index Jul YoY Ccy Med -0.8 -0.9 USDJPY intraday

JP Jobless rate Jun Ccy High 5.2 5.2 USDJPY risk barometer (2 day)

riday 0130 AU Private sector credit Jun YoY Ccy Med 3.1 2.7 AUDUSD intraday

0900 EU EZ unemployment rate Jul YoY C/E Med 10 10 Euro, ESX, DAX risk barometer (2 day)

EU EZ consumer price index est. Jul YoY C/E Med 1.7 1.4 Euro, ESX, DAX risk barometer (2 day)

CH KOF Swiss leading indicator Jul Ccy Med 2.3 2.25 USDCHF intraday

1230 CA Gross domestic product May MoM Ccy Med 0.2 0.0 USDCAD risk barometer (2 day)

US Gross domestic product Q2 A C/E High 2.5 2.7 Across the board (3 day)US Personal consumption Q2 A Equ Med 2.4 3.0 S&P risk barometer (2 day)

he calendar promises some good movement this week.

ast week, market's suspicions were confirmed. The stress tests were ineffective. There is simply little to no trust in the result

he design was flawed, execution was spotty, and some banks refused to provide full details on sovereign debt exposure.

Ahem...hello, Germany.) Friday's close saw a mixed performance from the USD but the S&P 500 closed above 1100 for the fir

me in nearly 5 weeks. Currently Asian stocks are up on the stress test results.

This week, the calendar promises more movement. Wednesday in particular looks good for both equities and currenc

s this is one of my favorite reversal days, I will take a very close look at where my favorite instruments are in relation to their

nges. (See charts below.)Continuing earnings releasesmay complicated the macro picture.Stories hitting the wires now are focusing on how banks across the world, but particularly in Europe, the UK, and the U

ill finance short term lending. Of course, this means they will have to do some long term fund raising. Most banks are having

ard time doing both. If they don't start lending soon, the recovery will stall and the odds of a double dip in the markets increa

ubstantially.

ee charts below.

eeklyutlook

uly 2010

Last week, markets for the most part were convinced the stress tests were ineffective. There is simply little to no

trust in the results. Some banks refused to provide full details on sovereign debt exposure -- ahem, hello Germany.

Friday's close saw a mixed performance from the USD, but SPX closed above 1100 for the first time in nearly five

weeks. Undoubtedly earnings-driven. Weekly ranges have been narrow, so I expect an expansionary move soon...

6E short blw 1.3100 ES short blw 1130 DAX neutral to long CL short blw 79.40 (!)
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URUSD weekly outlook

URUSD has broken above key resistance. The euro was well bid on average volume despite the results of the stress tests, bu

d not move as much as I had projected (see grey arrows). I am seeing a very clear 5 wave formation on the charts at the

oment, with a topping pattern below 1.3. This week will be an important one in terms of the direction of the euro across the

oard. I have no doubt some of the wave groupies out there will assume a corrective pattern will emerge this week. If true, w

wave A and it looks complete. (6E is currently trading at 1.2935/37.) Sovereign bids are still noted at 1.2485, so keep this ar

ind as a potential bottom for the current cycle. Near term support has solidified above 1.27, but I am not confident this leve

old if a good selling program gets underway. 1.26/1.25 should be better supported. I will also be watching equities for

orrelations and divergences. At the moment, offers are clustered from 1.3085 up to 1.3110, with stops above 1.3120. EURJP

ack up at 113.25, with large stops above 113.50. If this level breaks, look for the chance of a sustained EURUSD break above

s well. Long term, there is the possibility that EURUSD could trade to 1.38 or 1.15. Not getting a clear picture on range

robabilities this week, so I'm assessing the market based on support, resistance, and daily momentum.

Quarterly resistance

trend line is now support,

but will the market

respect the line?

Short on good technical setups between 1.30 and

1.31, with SL above 1.3125. TP 1.2535. Watch

intermediate levels and close trade if good supportis seen.

1

2

3

4

5




S90 weekly outlook

he ES September contract is moving technically. The ES profile has changed after Friday's close above 1100. This is the first t

e ES has closed above 1100 in almost 5 weeks, and the higher high above the 14 July close signals an extension to at least 11

is week. For the current technical pattern to complete, the market would have to trade up to 1147. I see little chance of tha

appening this week, but earnings could provide the needed force to get through some tough resistance at 1110 and 1130. I h

xpected the failure at 1100 to push the market down to key support at 1044, but the strong Tuesday reversal off of 1050 has

inking this rally has room to run. (The Tuesday settlement price is my favorite directional indicator. Although it works about

e time, it can present very good R:R setups.) My bias is still short below 1130. Range studies put a close above that level at 3

his is about twice the probability of last week. Odds of a touch at 1110 before Wednesday are 63%. This chart is a bit messy,

ear with me: Key resistance at 1110, 1120 and 1130. Range extreme at 1147. Key support at 1085, 1060, 1050 and 1044. Ran

xtreme at 1140. One week HVNs at 1055, 1063, 1078.50, and 1090. In other words, lots of support! Last week was a narrow

nge week of 50.25 points. My range studies indicate primary range projection of 60 points and an alternate at 47.5.

150 SMA

flattening

Weekly range extreme





AX weekly outlook

he DAX 30 remains volatile and range bound. This index is coiling up and I believe a very sharp move is just around the corn

olume over the past three weeks has been consistent and a bit on the low side, which explains some of the chop. I continue

elieve that as long as this index remains above 5600, the uptrend is still intact. Last week the market rallied on the IFO surpri

nd this week we have more key German data. Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's employment data could push the DAX out of

nge -- my bias is a break will occur on the high side before it will return to value. The Finance Minister has revised his foreca

r German GDP to 2%, from 1.4%, which could have been based on some of the data that will be released this week. Like I've

efore, anything can happen in the DAX. Short term resistance levels are 6280 and 6350, with 6500 being key statistical resist

nd 6600 being the extreme of my weekly range studies. Short term support levels are 6050 (technical), 6000 (range pivot), 59

ejection low), and 5800 (responsive buying). One week TPNs at 6180, 6140, 6050, 6010, and 5955. It's important to keep in m

at currently the DAX sits in the middle of a very large range -- from the 2008 range high to the 2009 range low.

I have NO IDEA where this market is going, other than to

say that this consolidation will continue until it doesn't

and my bias is slightly up...oddly enough, this has been

my most profitable instrument for the last two weeks.



Likely range extreme

Likely range extreme



lt t f f t f Pl lt i t d fi i l d i b f i ki

rude weekly outlook

rude will continue to lose ground in a weak global economy. The rally extended early last week before failing just above the

rojected top at 78. The range top of 79.38 was breached, with Friday's high at 79.60. But the close was below 79, putting an

xtension to the next level of 82 in question. I may short this contract this week and target 72. Range studies suggest not mor

an 3 handles to the upside and not more than 5 handles to the downside, making 82 and 72 the projected extremes for the

eek, with 80, 78, and 75 the only significant intermediate range references. A clear break targets 85. I'll be watching the EIA

etroleum status report as usual for near term direction through Friday.

rested in contributing to this letter?

se contact the number over there -->

email me: jay AT lonelytrader DOT com

Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, range studies

San Diego Area, USA

760-444-0307



Weekly Outlook 250710

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