Commodity Weekly Outlook Dec 1211
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`` Exchange Commodit y Recommendation COMEX Gold Feb. Prices met all our targets as per expectations in last week. Favored view for the week crucial support at 1550/30 levels, holds support at these levels we could see a recovery rally towards 1664/1689 levels. Only break below 1530 we could see 1478 and 1440 levels. MCX Gold Feb. Prices moved as per expectation, met all our targets at 28600. Favored view for the week, we could see a recovery rally toward s 28250/28400, resists these level s again it can test could see levels of 27100/26600 levels. Only sustaining above 28500 it could test 28900 levels. COMEX Silver Mar. Prices moved as per expectation and met our targets at 29.40. Favored view for the week as long as 28 holds support we could see a recovery rally towards 31 and 32 on the higher side again resists these levels, we could see a fall towards 28.20 and 26.50 levels. MCX Silver Mar. Prices moved as per expectation and met our targets at 53800. Favored view as long as 52500/520000 levels holds support we could see recovery rally towards 55300/56200 levels, again resists these levels price can test 52700 and 51200 levels. Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3 COMEX Gold Feb. 1712.8 1700 1780 1750 1700 1670 1640 1600 MCX Gold Feb. 27636 28000 28560.00 28130.00 27900.00 27500.00 27200.00 26860.00 COMEX Silver Mar. 32.25 32.05 33.00 32.20 31.50 30.90 30.20 29.7 MCX Silver Mar. 53714 54500 55000.00 54500.00 54000.00 53500.00 53000.00 52500.00 PRECIOUS METAL WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK Gold: Gold dropped to as low as 1562.5 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. Precious Metals: Precious metals got hammered as they moved more in tandem with others in the commodity complex rather than as safe haven assets. After surging to a record high of above 1900 in September, gold has been undergoing a correction. The bearish trend in recent month has led to worries that the yellow metals annual gain over the past 10 years may be paused in 2011. Over the past deca de, gold delivere d aver age annu al returns of +18% while inflation was averaged at +2.5%. Quantitative easing measures by the Fed were the most important driver of the gold price over the past few years. CO C COMMODITY OUTLOOK DATE – Dec 19, 2011 STRATEGY WEEKLY COMMODITY UPDATE Silver Silver dropped further to as low as 28.12 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. Quantitative easing measures by the Fed were the most important driver of the gold pr ice over the past few years. Unconventi onal ea si ng measures implemented by central banks are 'money-printing' in nature and in so doing, pol icy makers intentionall y depre cia te currencies of the ir countries. While currency depreciation would drive investors from fiat currencies to gold, it does not benefit gold price to the same extent. Indeed, ECB's easing would send the euro lower. PIVOT
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Transcript of Commodity Weekly Outlook Dec 1211
8/3/2019 Commodity Weekly Outlook Dec 1211
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WEEKLY INVENTORY
COMMODITY 02/12/2011 07/12/2011
CHANGE
Crude oil inventory 3.9M 1.3M -2.6M
Natural Gas inventory -1B -20B -19B
Exchange Commodity Recommendation
NYMEX Crude oil Jan.
Prices moved as per expectation and rallied to near 102 levels and slide from there to our targetlevels of 97 levels. Favored view for the week we could see recovery rally towards 96/98 levels,resists these levels we could see levels of 91/88 levels.
MCX Crude oil Jan.
Prices almost moved as per expectations and met our targets at 4970. Favored view for the week,we could see a rally towards 5110/5160 levels resists these levels we could see again levels of 4850/4740 levels.
NYMEX Natural Gas Dec.
Prices didn’t move as per expectation last week. Favored view for the week rallies to 3.30/3.40resists these levels we could see more downside towards 2.90/2.65 levels. Only turns bullish above3.42/3.50.
MCXNatural Gas
Dec.
Prices didn’t move as per expectation. Favored view for the week rallies to 172/175 levels resists;we could see levels of 156/148.
Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
NYMEXCrude oil
Jan.101.20 96.50 104.00 102.00 100.00 99.00 97.00 95.00
MCX Crude oil Dec4950
5000 5230.00 5130.00 5030.00 4900.00 4830.00 4730.00
NYMEXNatural Gas
Jan..3.36 4.00 4.90 4.70 4.50 3.20 3.00 2.90
MCXNatural Gas
Jan.
165.8169.00 180.20 175.60 170.60 165.00 160.40 155.40
Crude Oil: Oil prices tumbled last week. While the uncertainty in theEurozone continued to drag on prices, the major reason for the slump wasOPEC's announcement of raising the cartel's production ceiling. For the first
time in 3 years, the OPEC increased its production ceiling to 30M bpd so asto make room for rising exports from Libya. The new quota, replacing thecurrent target of 24.85M bpd for OPEC -11, is for all members of the cartel,including Iraq and Libya, and comes in line with total OPEC production inrecent months
Natural gas: Natural gas remained under pressure. The DOE/EIA reportedthat gas inventory dropped -102bcf to 3729 bcf in the week ended December 9. Stocks were +154 bcf above the same period last year and +347 bcf, or 10.3%, above the 5-year average of 3382 bcf. Separately, Baker Hughesreported that the number of gas rigs fell -2 units to 818 in the week endedDecember 16. Oil rigs added +35 units to 1196 and miscellaneous rigs fell -1unit to 5, sending the total number of rigs to 2019 units. Directionally orientedcombined oil, gas, and miscellaneous rigs dipped -4 units to 213 units while
horizontal rigs increased +33 units to 1184 and vertical climbed +3 units to622 during the week.
ENERGY
PIVOT
STRATEGY
INVENTORY WEEKLY CHANGE
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Exchange Commodity Recommendation
LME Copper
Prices didn’t move as per expectation. Favored view for the week rallies to 7580/7750 resists theselevels we could see a 7100/6800 levels.
MCX Copper Feb.
Prices didn’t move as per expectations last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 404/408resists we could see a levels of 378/373 levels.
MCX Nickel Dec.
Prices moved as per expectations and almost met the targets of 984. Favored view for the weekcrucial resistance at 984/990 levels only above that it can test 1008/1020, else we expect price toremain in the range of 930 and 990.
MCX Lead Dec.
Prices didn’t move per expectation last week. Favored view for the week is rallies to 107/109 resiststhese levels we could see 100/98 levels.
MCX Zinc Dec..
Prices didn’t move as per expectations. Favored view for the week, we could see recovery rallytowards as 103/104 levels resists these levels we could see 96/94 levels.
MCXAluminumDec.
Prices didn’t move as per expectation. Favored view for the week as long as 108/109 resists we couldsee price to test 104.50/102.50 levels.
Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
LME Copper 7836.25 7680 8200 8000 7900 7800 7700 7600
MCX Copper Feb. 393.2 392.88 395.22 394.33 393.77 392.32 391.43 390.87
MCX Nickel Dec. 976.9 976.90 995.30 985.50 978.70 975.10 973.30 971.50
MCX Lead Dec. 103.95 103.70 106.05 105.55 104.20 103.35 102.85 101.50
MCX Zinc Dec. 99 98.70 100.90 99.00 98.00 97.30 96.40 95.50
MCX
Aluminum
Dec. 105.75 105.70 108.85 107.80 106.75 104.65 103.60 102.55
BASE METALS
STRATEGY
PIVOT
Base metals under pressure on global supply concerns On Friday, ItalianSenate approved a budget bill thereby making way for it to move to lowerhouse and after its approval there, the prime minister would step down. Sosteps are being taken by policy makers there though they continue to remainvery incremental thereby only providing short term relief to the markets.
In the coming week, GDP data from Euro and Japan would remain in focus.Japanese economy is expected to have grown at 1.5 percent in the thirdquarter as against contraction of 0.5 percent in the previous quarter. Activityin the country has picked up after the earthquake and thereby the same mightbe reflected in the GDP numbers.
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34980
LME WARHOUSE INVENTORY WEEKLY CHANGE
AGRI COMMODITY REVIEW
METALS COMMODITY REVIEWWEEKLY LME INVENTORY
COMMODITY09/11/2011 16/11/2011 Change
COPPER 386075 381250 -4825
ZINC757350 758900 1550
LEAD361700 358075 -3625
ALUMINIUM 4589050 4822725 233675
NICKEL90042 88710 -1332
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Exchange Commodity Recommendation
NCDEXSoya Bean.
Jan.
Favored view for the week is as long as 2300/2290 holds support it can test 2450/2490 levels.
NCDEX Soya Oil Jan.Favored view for the week dips to 663/655, holds support we could see price to test 688/696.
NCDEX RM Seed Jan .Favored view for this week dips to 3340/3280 holds support we could 3500/3540 levels.
Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
NCDEXSoya beenJan. 2393 2390.00 2436.00 2419.00 2407.00 2378.00 2361.00 2349.00
NCDEXSoya oil
Jan. 677.65 677.00 690.70 685.20 682.50 674.30 668.80 666.10
NCDEX Rm seedJan 3439 3440.00 3494.00 3471.00 3453.00 3422.00 3409.00 3391.00
PIVOT
STRATEGY
SOYA COMPLEX
Soybean futures rose Last week tracking firm global cues amid and on risingspot demand. In NCDEX soybean January contract is trading at Rs.2393 per
quintal,.Open interest of the contract is 202330 lots and volume traded is58690 lots for the time being. As per local statistics bureau, soybean outputin China's Heilongjiang province, the top-producing area, fell 7.5% to 5.42million metric tons this year. USDA’s weekly export figures released onDecember 15, 2011, which shows that the net weekly export sales forsoybeans came in at 468,600 metric tonnes which was slightly below trade expectations. China was the largest buyer of 354,200 tonnes.
Mustardseed last week traded with the positive node and settled at 3423 onthe heels of crop concerns in major producing states along with waningcarryover stocks in major mandies.As per market sources, cold weather inNorth India without adequate rainfall may cause frost injury to Mustard Seed crop.This may also reduce the overall production of the mustard crop due toshrunken of overall mustard seed size. Therefore, in the current situation,traders are expecting the total mustard seed production in the range of 60-61
lakh tonnes, down almost 7-8 lakh tonnes from the last year.Moreover,carryover stocks also added some buying in futures market. As per marketsources , the total carryover stocks in the major mandies were reported at1.50-2 lakh tonnes , down almost 5-6 lakh tonnes from the last year in thesame period.
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Date Time Event Forecast Previous
19/12/2011 2:30pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.84B
19/12/2011 9:00pmEUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
- -
20/12/2011 12:30pmCHF Trade Balance
2.47B2.15B
20/12/2011 12:30pmEUR German PPI m/m
0.1%0.2%
20/12/2011 12:30pmGfK German Consumer Climate
5.55.6
20/12/2011 7:00pmUSD Building Permits
0.63M 0.64M
21/12/2011 7:00pmUSD Housing Starts
0.64M0.63M
21/12/2011 12:30pm EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.6% -0.3%
21/12/2011 8:30pmEUR Consumer Confidence
-21-20
21/12/2011 8:30pmUSD Existing Home Sales
5.04M4.97M
21/12/2011 9:00pmUSD Crude Oil Inventories -1.9M
22/12/2011 2:30pmEUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
-0.2%-0.4%
22/12/2011 3:00pmGBP Final GDP q/q
0.5%0.5%
22/12/2011 3:00pmGBP Revised Business Investment q/q
-1.3%-1.4%
22/12/2011 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 376K 366K
22/12/2011 7:00pmUSD Final GDP q/q
2.0%2.0%
22/12/2011 7:00pmUSD Final GDP Price Index q/q
2.5%2.5%
22/12/2011 8:25pmUSD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 68.1 67.7
22/12/2011 9:00pmUSD Natural Gas Storage -102B
23/12/2011 7:00pmUSD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
0.5% 1.1%
23/12/2011 7:00pmUSD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1
23/12/2011 7:00pm USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 2.2% -0.5%
23/12/2011 7:00pmUSD Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.1%
23/12/2011 8:30pmUSD Personal Income m/m
0.3%0.4%
23/12/2011 8:30pmUSD New Home Sales
314K307K
WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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