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Weekly Cat Report September 22, 2017


Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: www.aonbenfield.com/catastropheinsight

Event & Region Fatalities Damaged Structures or Filed Claims

Est. Economic Loss (USD)

Specific Areas Page

HU Maria - North America

19+

Thousands

TBD

Caribbean Islands

3

Earthquake - North America

273+

12,000+

100s of millions

Mexico

10

TY Doksuri - Asia

24+

230,500+

500+ million

Philippines, China, Indochina

15

TY Talim - Asia

3+

4,100+

10s of millions

Japan

18

Severe Weather - Asia

0

2,400

1.0+ million

China

20

Flooding - Asia - Africa

1

12+

2,400

Hundreds+

26+ million 1.0+ million

China

Democratic Republic of Congo

20 20

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Weekly Cat Report 3

Data source: NHC, NASA

Maria becomes 2nd landfalling Category 5 storm of 2017 Hurricane Maria underwent explosive intensification and made landfall in Dominica as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph (260 kph) winds on September 18, causing catastrophic damage on the island. At least 19 people were killed and dozens of others were injured. The cyclone would later track near the U.S. Virgin Islands and make landfall as a powerful Category 4 storm in Puerto Rico on September 20. The level of damage across the Caribbean was extensive and merely weeks after Hurricane Irma left devastation in the Leeward Islands. Maria becomes the second Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean to make landfall; making 2017 just the second time on record that two such storms have made landfall in a single season.

Meteorological Recap

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began watching an organizing cluster of thunderstorms on September 14 (00:00 UTC) after it had exited the west coast of Africa a few days prior. The agency initially gave the tropical wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days. However, the system began to organize more quickly than initially thought and the NHC declared the system Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen on September 16 (15:00 UTC).

During this time, initial tropical storm watches were issued for parts of the Leeward Islands. (Beginning in 2017, the NHC started using the term ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone’ to describe a disturbance that is not yet a tropical cyclone, but poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.)

The NHC would officially deem the disturbance a Tropical Depression on September 16 (18:00 UTC) and Tropical Storm Maria just three hours later. The storm continued to get better organized while tracking west-northwestward through the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. Steady intensification occurred as Maria moved through an area with minimal vertical wind shear and extremely warm ocean waters. The cyclone would officially reach hurricane intensity with 75 mph (120 kph) winds on September 17 (21:00 UTC) while the outer fringes of the system started to enter the Leeward Islands.


Weekly Cat Report 4

By September 18, Maria was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph (130 kph) winds. During the next 24 hours, it would undergo explosive rapid intensification to Category 5 intensity.

During the 24 hour span between September 18 (00:00 UTC) and September 19 (00:00 UTC), the NHC projected that Maria would undergo intensification with a likelihood of becoming a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) during the next 24 hours. One of the more trusted statistically-based intensity models – known as the SIPS Rapid Intensification Index – gave a 51 percent chance of rapid intensification by 30 knots during the upcoming 24 hour timeframe.

Maria would eventually intensify by 70 knots in the 24 hour stretch and reaching an incredible intensity of 160 mph (260 kph) while nearing the island of Dominica. The minimum central pressure would fall from 982 millibars to 925 hours during this time as well; further signifying Maria’s explosive growth.

Maria would officially make landfall in Dominica at approximately 9:15 PM local time on September 18 (01:35 UTC September 19) as a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph (260 kph) winds. This is the first time on record that a Category 5 storm has made landfall in Dominica.

After landfall, Maria continued to track west-northwestward with slight wobbles as the system initially started to show signs of an eyewall replacement cycle. This was significant given that the storm had a small hurricane wind field, with hurricane-force winds only extending roughly 30 miles (45 kilometers) from the center. Given the small wind radii, this meant that any slight wobble could have a major impact in terms of wind-driven damage across the rest of the Caribbean.

Hurricane warnings were in effect for much of the northern Caribbean – including the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and other small islands in the Lesser Antilles – on September 19 as Maria moved closer to impacting areas only recently devastated by Hurricane Irma. After moving away from Dominica, Maria briefly weakened below Category 5 intensity with 155 mph (250 kph) winds, but would regain Category 5 strength in less than four hours while traversing very warm waters in the Caribbean.

Maria landfall in Dominica (Source: Meteo France)

Maria’s explosive 24-hour intensification (Source: NASA, CSU)


Weekly Cat Report 5

During the day on September 19, Maria continued to track west-northwestward towards the Virgin Islands (British and U.S.) and Puerto Rico. The system maintained Category 5 strength with 160 mph (260 kph) winds as large swells began to batter many islands. An eyewall replacement cycle did commence as the hurricane and tropical storm-force wind field radii began to expand. However, similarly to Hurricane Irma, Maria did not weaken during the regeneration process. In fact, pressure levels continued to drop and wind speeds slightly increased during the day. The new peak intensity was 175 mph (280 kph) as minimum central pressure plunged to 909 millibars.

Maria officially made landfall in Puerto Rico at around 06:15 AM AST on September 20 (10:15 UTC) as the center of its circulation crossed the southeastern shores of the island near Yabucoa, located approximately 30 miles (48 kilometers) SSE of San Juan. Maria made landfall as an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with 155 mph (250 kph) sustained winds, shortly after being downgraded from the highest category. This was the strongest landfall in Puerto Rico since 1928 and the first Category 4 storm to directly affect the island since 1932.

The center of Maria’s circulation exited Puerto Rico at around 02:00 PM AST (06:00 UTC). After spending roughly four hours over land, it emerged in the Atlantic as a weakened Category 3 strength hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 115 mph (185 kph). Maria continued to bring torrential rainfall to Puerto Rico as it tracked towards the Dominican Republic that prompted extensive flash flooding. By early evening, conditions were deteriorating in northeastern parts of the country. Maria was briefly downgraded to a Category 2 storm as the effects of tracking across the rough terrain of Puerto Rico were being felt by the system, but it later regained major hurricane intensity near the eastern Dominican Republic. The storm remained just offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic maintaining Category 3 intensity as it tracked near the coast.

As of this writing, Hurricane Maria was a Category 3 strength storm with sustained wind speeds of 125 mph (205 kph) located some 65 miles (105 kilometers) east-southeast of the Turks & Caicos Islands. A hurricane warning was in place for the archipelago as well as for the southeastern Bahamas. The latest track forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes the center of Maria just past the eastern Turks & Caicos Islands, maintaining its major hurricane status, before it moves off into the open waters of the North Atlantic.

Maria at Puerto Rico landfall, thermal satellite image (Source: NASA, CSU)

Hurricane Maria, 04:15 UTC, September 22 (Source: NOAA)


Weekly Cat Report 6

Storm Stats Fastest intensification from Tropical Depression to Category 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic

Ocean (53 hours and 45 minutes); previous record Hurricane Wilma (57 hours) Maria’s lowest pressure of 924 millibars on September 19 (UTC) was the lowest for an Atlantic

hurricane this late in the calendar year since Hurricane Wilma Maria was the strongest hurricane and the only Category 5 storm to strike Dominica on record

(160 mph) Maria was the second strongest hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico on record (155 mph).

Category 5 Okeechobee hurricane from 1928 retains the record

Season Stats 2017 is the first Atlantic season since 2007 to have two Category 5 storms 2017 is the second Atlantic season on record to have two landfalling Category 5 storms (2007;

Dean and Felix) 2016/2017 is the first time since 2004/2005 to have back-to-back seasons with Category 5 storms Atlantic seasons on record with multiple Category 5 storms: 2017, 2007, 2005, 1961, 1933, 1932

Storm Data Winds & Pressure


Weekly Cat Report 7

Event Details

Lesser Antilles Dominica Hurricane Maria made a catastrophic landfall on the Island of Dominica shortly after strengthening to Category 5. According to the prime minister of the Caribbean nation, Maria left “widespread devastation” in its wake. Preliminary reports out of the island indicated mass devastation as the vast majority of structures sustained some level of damage. All communication with the island was severely disrupted due to extensive damage and power outages to the electrical grid immediately after the storm’s passage.

At least 15 people were killed on the island while a further 20 were officially listed as missing. Officials indicated that the death toll may rise further as several communities had still not been reached at the time of this writing. Reports from local media suggest that as many as 90 percent of all buildings on the island were destroyed. There were also early reports of severe flooding and landslides. Many buildings that were used as shelters lost their roofs. The neighboring island nations of St Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad & Tobago were mobilizing to help Dominica with relief efforts.

Maria is the first-ever Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in Dominica. The previous record was Hurricane David, which struck Dominica 38 years ago at Category 4 strength. That storm, which brushed the southern coast of the island, left at least 37 people dead and the national economy devastated. More recently, 2015’s Tropical Storm Erika caused more than USD500 million (2017 USD) in damage – which equaled 90 percent of the country’s GDP. Prior to Maria’s landfall, Dominica was still recovering from Erika’s flood impact.

Guadeloupe Power outages across Guadeloupe in the aftermath of Maria affected some 80,000 people - 40 percent of the country’s population. At least two people were killed while two others were listed as missing following the capsizing of their boat near La Desirade Island, east of the main island of Guadeloupe. Extensive damage to roofs was reported along with significant damage to vegetation. Authorities warned the population of possible flooding and landslides, as cleanup efforts started to take place on Tuesday morning.

Martinique Maria skirted the island of Martinique with the center of the eye located approximately 25 miles (40 kilometers) off the island’s coast. Immediately following the passage of the storm, preliminary damage surveys conducted by local Civil Security revealed that the damage in Martinique was “minor” and “insignificant”. Nevertheless 70,000 homes were left without power and 50,000 were deprived of water supply on the island. At least two people were injured.

First aerial footage from Dominica (Source: CDEMA)


Weekly Cat Report 8

Greater Antilles U.S. & British Virgin Islands Maria’s eyewall passed directly over the island of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. As of this writing, reported from the island were scarce but all indicated that severe damage had been sustained. Communications across St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas, and Water Island were down and widespread power outages were also noted. Photos that did emerge from the territory indicated severe flooding had occurred on St. Thomas while multiple homes had sustained extensive damage on St. Croix. Images from St. Croix also showed extensive damage to vegetation and to the electrical grid. Many roads were unpassable.

After the storm’s passage, the Governor of the U.S. Virgin Islands placed a 24-hour curfew on all four islands of the archipelago in order to expedite relief and rescue operations.

The British Virgin Islands were also impacted by Maria, and according to local residents, the storm destroyed much of what was left by Irma just weeks ago. Communication and power outages were hampered relief efforts.

Puerto Rico

Maria made its second landfall in Puerto Rico in the morning hours of September 20, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge and very heavy rainfall.

Widespread flooding was reported across Puerto Rico as the hurricane’s rainbands poured up to 18 inches (457 millimeters) of rainfall on the island and several rivers swelled rapidly. Isolated locations received as much as 25 inches (635 millimeters) of rainfall. The National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings for the entire island of Puerto Rico. Both the Rio Grande and the Rio de la Plata crested at record levels.

Flooding in St. Thomas (Source: U.S. Virgin Islands Government)


Weekly Cat Report 9

Prior to the arrival of Maria, more than 13,000 residents were in emergency shelters across Puerto Rico. However, at least one person was killed as the storm prompted a country-wide power blackout as it toppled power poles and telecommunication towers. It should be noted though that approximately 70,000 of the island’s 3.4 million residents had been without power since Hurricane Irma grazed the country on September 6. It also triggered extensive flooding across the island, including in the capital San Juan, that swept away homes and vehicles and ruined potable water wells.

Among the hardest hit areas was the coastal city of Catano where local officials reported that more than 360 homes were destroyed in the neighborhood of Juana Matos. In the town of Arecibo a medical facility lost its roof while a hospital and police station reported damage.

Extensive damage was reported from across the country which had not been quantified as of this writing as dozens of communities remained cut off.

Dominican Republic

Almost 10,000 people were evacuated and all the country’s major ports were closed in advance of Maria which prompted widespread flooding in the Dominican Republic. As of this writing, reports from the country were sparse but it was anticipated that extensive damage had occurred.

Turks & Caicos Islands, Bahamas As of this writing, Hurricane Maria was a Category 3 strength storm with sustained wind speeds of 125 mph (205 kph) located some 65 miles (105 kilometers) east-southeast of the Turks & Caicos Islands. A hurricane warning was in place for the archipelago as well as for the southeastern Bahamas.

Financial Losses With Hurricane Maria still an active system that is impacting multiple territories, it remains too early to provide any specific economic or insured loss estimate. The catastrophic scope of damage caused by the storm is going to simply take time to be fully assessed. With communication channels remaining very challenging for local officials on many islands - including Dominica, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic - many assessments have not yet begun or are in their infancy. The combined economic cost of damage and direct business interruption throughout the Caribbean is expected to well exceed USD1.0 billion.

The financial toll is going to put even further strain on numerous economies which have been struggled in recent years given a variety of metrics. With insurance penetration levels remaining low on many impacted islands, it is expected that a large portion of the economic damage will not be covered. The percentage of homes with active National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands is additionally in the single digits. With such a large portion of the damage likely to be flood-related in these areas, this will lead to an even larger disparity between the insured losses and the overall economic cost.

Guayama, Puerto Rico (Source: Reuters)


Weekly Cat Report 10

Major M7.1 earthquake strikes Mexico A major magnitude-7.1 earthquake struck central Mexico on Tuesday, September 19, causing extensive damage across the greater Mexico City metropolitan area and near the epicenter in the city of Puebla. At least 273 people were confirmed dead, but this toll was expected to continue rising as relief and rescue operations remain underway. Thousands more were injured as the jolt lasted for dozens of seconds. The tremor was widely felt across much of Mexico as many structures – including some multi-story structures – either collapsed or were severely damaged. In total some 7,000 homes and 5,000 schools were damaged or destroyed. Substantial damage additionally occurred to infrastructure (including roads, bridges, and underground pipes) and the electrical grid. The event came on the 32nd anniversary of the magnitude-8.0 earthquake that struck Michoacan and left thousands of people dead and caused extensive damage in Mexico City.

Event Details A powerful earthquake struck south-central Mexico at 1:14 PM local time (18:14 UTC) on September 19. The USGS registered the tremor at magnitude-7.1 with an epicenter located 4.5 kilometers (2.8 miles) east-northeast of Raboso, Mexico, or about 123 kilometers (76 miles) southeast of Mexico City. The shallow event occurred at a depth of just 51 kilometers (32 miles). As of this writing, there had yet to be any notable aftershocks. Mexico City officials cited that earthquake sirens were activated several seconds prior, though many residents did not recall hearing any early warning.

At least 273 people were confirmed dead across the states of Mexico City (137), Morelos (73), Puebla (43), the state of Mexico (13), Guerrero (6), and Oaxaca (1). At least 19 children and six adults died at the Enrique Rebsamen Elementary School in Mexico City which collapsed; while a further 11 people were rescued. More than 2,000 others were reported to be injured including at least 50 people who were rescued in Mexico City alone. This is the highest number of Mexican fatalities from an earthquake since 1985. Most fatalities occurred after the earthquake caused hundreds of buildings to collapse near the epicenter and into numerous Mexico City neighborhoods. Many of the structures were multi-story which pancaked to the ground. At least 44 buildings collapsed in Mexico City alone, which sent plumes of smoke and dust across the metro area. At least 52 people were rescued alive from the rubble.

Preliminary reports out of the hardest-hit areas near Puebla indicated that numerous homes, schools, churches and health facilities had either collapsed or were seriously damaged. At least two fatalities occurred at a school in the city of Puebla. Multiple churches were confirmed damaged in the city of Cholula; primarily due to toppled steeples. In the Morelos town of Cuernavaca, numerous people were reportedly trapped under the rubble of collapsed buildings. Elsewhere, in the city of Jojutla, Morelos state, it was confirmed that at least 300 homes and businesses collapsed entirely, while 1,500 other buildings were damaged.

Damage in Mexico City (Source: El Heraldo)

Damage in Jojutla (Source: El Pais)



However, some of the most notable damage occurred in Mexico City. The city was built on a former lake bed and sits on top of soil that is particularly vulnerable to amplifying the effects of earthquakes that occur hundreds of miles away. In the aftermath of the 1985 event, Mexican leaders have worked to strengthen building codes and improve disaster preparation. This has led to a reduction in the damage caused by earthquakes in recent years, though large tremors still cause notable damage to older or more poorly built structures – and the September 19 event proved this to be true.

Some 3,000 members of the military were deployed to undertake rescue and relief operations in the capital. A select few of the hardest-hit neighborhoods in Mexico City included Roma, Reforma, Condesa, Narvarte, Napoles, and Lindavista – among many others. Local media showed images of crushed vehicles, damaged building facades and debris strewn in streets. As the earthquake struck, many buildings violently swayed.

The USGS cited that this part of Mexico is full of structures with construction that would be described as either vulnerable or earthquake resistant. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block with concrete bond beam and mud wall construction.

Numerous videos and pictures showed slabs of concrete falling off of multi-story structures (including Mexico City’s Labor Ministry building) and collapsing to the ground. Among the most significant damage locations was Mexico’s storied soccer venue: Estadio Azteca. Severe cracking was spotted throughout the venue’s upper deck and officials worked to see if there was any structural impact. Some 202 schools in Mexico City alone sustained damage, according to the Education Secretary, 15 of which were destroyed.

Damage to specific buildings included the Philippine Embassy in the Cuauhtemoc area of Mexico City which was severely damaged.

Beyond damage occurring to structures due to shaking, there were numerous reports of fires across Mexico City after many gas lines were ruptured. This caused several instances of buildings catching on fire. It also made relief and recovery efforts initially challenging as rescuers sought to find survivors as gas leaks were prevalent. Additionally, communication channels were severely disrupted after more than 4.7 million national utility customers (Federal Commission of Electricity) lost service across Guerrero, Morelos, Puebla, State of Mexico, Oaxaca, Tlaxcala, and Mexico City. On September 20 it was reported that 40 percent of households and businesses in Mexico City and 60 percent in Morelos state were without electricity. The lack of electricity further led to widespread cell tower disruptions; many of which were reportedly damaged. There were no reports however, of serious structural damage to any of the electricity generating stations in the region. On September 20 at 07:00 AM local time, the Commission reported that power supply was restored for 92% of affected customers.

Damage in Mexico City (Source: AFP)



The violent ground shaking additionally caused catastrophic damage to local infrastructure as roads were cracked and bridges collapsed. Mexico City’s airport was temporarily closed as officials checked the facility to ensure that no significant damage had occurred to any terminals or runways. There were images of roads outside of the airport buckling. At least 180 flights were cancelled due to the temporary airport closure. Public transportation was also affected as Mexico City Metro was forced to stop multiple subway lines due to power failures.

City workers fled buildings immediately after the main tremor struck, with thousands of residents lining Mexico City’s famous Reforma Avenue, Insurgentes Avenue, and around the Angel of Independence monument. News of the earthquake caused the Mexico stock exchange to suspend trading after the peso currency and stocks quickly fell.

The earthquake occurred just two hours and fifteen minutes after Mexico City enacted an evacuation drill on the anniversary of the historic 1985 event.

This event occurred less than two weeks after a magnitude-8.1 earthquake struck offshore the state of Chiapas and left at least 98 people dead. Local officials from the Chiapas Civil Protection Agency cited that roughly 55,000 homes damaged or destroyed across 97 affected municipalities. Even more damage to hundreds of hospitals, schools, churches and other facilities were noted across Chiapas and Oaxaca. Total economic losses were expected to reach the billions (USD).

Seismological Recap The United States Geological Survey (USGS) provided the following tectonic summary of the event:

The September 19, 2017, M7.1 earthquake in Central Mexico occurred as the result of normal faulting at a depth of approximately 50 kilometers. The event is near, but not directly on, the plate boundary between the Cocos and North America plates in the region. At the location of this event, the Cocos plate converges with North America at a rate of approximately 76 mm/yr, in a northeast direction. The Cocos plate begins its subduction beneath Central America at the Middle America Trench, about 300 kilometers to the southwest of this earthquake. The location, depth, and normal-faulting mechanism of this earthquake indicate that it is likely an intraplate event, within the subducting Cocos slab, rather than on the shallower megathrust plate boundary interface.

While commonly plotted as points on maps, earthquakes of this size are more appropriately described as slip over a larger fault area. Normal-faulting events of the size of the September 19th, 2017 earthquake are typically about 50x20 kilometers (length x width).

Over the preceding century, the region within 250 km of the hypocenter of the September 19th, 2017 earthquake has experienced 19 other M 6.5+ earthquakes. Most occurred near the subduction zone interface at the Pacific coast, to the south of the September 19 event. The largest was a M7.6 earthquake in July 1957, in the Guerrero region, which caused between to 50-160 fatalities, and many more injuries. In June 1999, a M7.0 at 70 kilometer depth, just to the southeast of the September 19, 2017 earthquake, caused 14 fatalities, around 200 injuries, and considerable damage in the city of Puebla (MMI VIII).

Damage in Mexico City (Source: Canal 127)



September 19 is the anniversary of the devastating 1985 M8.0 Michoacan earthquake, which caused extensive damage to Mexico City and the surrounding region. That event occurred as the result of thrust faulting on the plate interface between the Cocos and North America plates, about 450 kilometers to the west of the September 19, 2017 earthquake. Today’s earthquake also occurs 12 days after a M8.1 earthquake offshore of Chiapas, in southern Mexico. The epicenter of the M8.1 event is located about 650 kilometers to the southeast of today's tremor. That earthquake also occurred as the result of normal faulting within the subducting Cocos Plate, at a depth of 50-70 kilometers.

Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale Nearly 80 million residents were estimated to have felt levels of shaking ranging from “Weak” to “Very Strong” on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale. The areas to feel the strongest level of shaking – MMI Level VII (Severe) shaking – included Jiutepec (population: 162,000), Izucar de Matamoros (43,000), Atencingo (13,000), and Ayutla (7,000). The USGS additionally noted that Mexico City (population: 12.3 million) and Puebla (1.6 million) cited MMI Level VI shaking (Moderate).

Intensity Exposed Population Intensity Exposed Population II-III (Weak) 27.8 million VII (Very Strong) 2.1 million IV (Light) 19.1 million VIII (Severe) 0 V (Moderate) 11.6 million IX (Violent) 0 VI (Strong) 19.0 million X (Extreme) 0 Below is the latest ShakeMap from the USGS which shows the large area which were exposed to shaking from the temblor:

Data Source: USGS



Historical Context The earthquake occurred on the 32nd anniversary of the historic 1985 event that struck near Mexico City in the state of Michoacán and claimed approximately 10,000 lives. Total economic losses from that event were USD9.2 billion (2017).

Since 1900 there have been more than 50 significant earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.0 in Mexico. The table below provides a look at some of the most notable events during this timeframe:

Date Magnitude Location Details Economic Loss (2017 USD) Sept. 1985 8.0 Michoacan 10,000+ killed; 100,000 buildings damaged/destroyed 9.2 billion Jan. 2003 7.6 Colima 29 killed; 300 injured; 8,600 buildings damaged/destroyed 1.3 billion March 2012 7.4 Oaxaca 2 killed; 44,000 buildings damaged 867 million June 1999 7.0 Puebla 25 killed; 5,300 buildings destroyed; 25,400 buildings damaged 333 million Sept. 1999 7.5 Oaxaca 35 killed; 3,200 buildings damaged 239 million July 1957 7.6 Guerrero 160 killed; 100 injured 215 million March 1979 7.6 Guerrero 5 killed 105 million

Financial Loss The USGS Pager system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic losses based on past events in the relevant country or region, estimated that there was at least a 49 percent chance that economic losses due to the September 19 temblor will exceed USD1.0 billion. The highest range of losses (35 percent) were expected to be between USD1.0 billion to USD10 billion.

The USGS additionally noted that there was a 14 percent likelihood of economic losses in the range USD10-100 billion and a 46 percent chance of losses being less than USD1.0 billion.

The final economic impact was likely to be equal to less than 1 percent of Mexico’s GDP. However, the USGS noted that past events with a Red alert level have required a national or international level response given the likelihood of widespread damage.

Source: USGS



Western Pacific active as Doksuri & Talim make landfall Separate typhoons developed in the Western Pacific and individually made landfall this week. Typhoon Doksuri became the first Category 3 storm to make landfall in Vietnam since November 1995 as it came ashore near the border of Quảng Bình and Hà Tĩnh provinces on September 15. At least nine people were killed and hundreds of others were injured in Vietnam alone where preliminary damage was listed at VND11 trillion (USD484 million). Typhoon Talim weakened to a tropical storm prior to landfall in southern Japan on September 17, but heavy rain and gusty winds led to the deaths of at least two people. More than 4,100 homes and other structures were damaged or destroyed.

Typhoon Doksuri

Meteorological Recap The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) first began monitoring a tropical wave near the Philippines on September 9 (UTC). The system remained disorganized but produced numerous showers and thunderstorms across the archipelago that was additionally enhanced by the seasonal monsoon. While crossing the Philippines on September 12, the JTWC noted that the cluster had organized enough to be deemed a tropical depression with 55 kph (35 mph) sustained winds.

Upon exiting the Philippines and entering the South China Sea, atmospheric and oceanic conditions were conducive for further strengthening. Later in the day on September 12, the JTWC declared the system Tropical Storm Doksuri as winds continued to increase given improved satellite imagery. Steady strengthening persisted during the next 36 to 48 hours as Doksuri traversed westward across warm waters in the South China Sea and reached typhoon intensity with 120 kph (75 mph) winds on September 14.

The cyclone maintained a further south trajectory that kept the center of circulation south of China’s Hainan Island. With sea surface temperatures remaining very warm and a lack of wind shear present, the typhoon further strengthened while nearing the central Vietnamese coastline. In its final advisory prior to landfall, the JTWC upgraded Doksuri to Category 3 intensity with 185 kph (115 mph) winds. After landfall, the system gradually weakened over land before fully dissipating on September 15.

Based on preliminary JTWC best track data, Doksuri became the first Category 3 storm to strike Vietnam since Typhoon Zack in November 1995.

Doksuri was the 18th named storm of the 2017 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season and the seventh typhoon of the year in the basin.

Doksuri prior to landfall on September 15 (Source: NASA, CSU)



Event Details Philippines NB. Doksuri was locally called “Maring” in the Philippines.

The worst affected regions in the Philippines were Central Luzon, Calabarzon, and the National Capital region. At least five people were killed in the Philippines: two as the result of a landslide, two as the result of drowning, and one as the result of a collapsed house. A further five people were officially listed as missing, all of who were swept away by overflowing rivers.

In Calabarzon, a total of 1,822 homes were damaged in the provinces of Cavite, Laguna, and Quezon including 329 that were destroyed. The bulk of the damaged homes were in Padre Burgas municipality, Quezon where 774 homes were damaged and 14 were destroyed.

Almost 200 separate instances of flooding were reported across Central Luzon region and in Metro Manila while a dozen major roads and two bridges were temporarily not passable. Disruption to power supplies and telecommunications were also noted on September 12-13.

Some disruption to travel and transportation was additionally reported as some inter-island ferry services were suspended and 18 domestic flights were cancelled on September 12. Several more flights were subject to delays or diversions. Disruption to classes was reported on September 12 and 13 as the government suspended school lessons in Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Cordillera Administrative Region, and the National Capital Region. Government offices were also closed across Central Luzon, Calabarzon, and the National Capital Region on September 12.

The government declared a state of calamity for the provinces of Laguna and Cavite and the municipalities of Gumaca (Quezon) and Noveleta (Cavite) on September 12 and 13.

China China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) reported that some 2,600 hectares (6,425 acres) of agricultural land on Hainan Island, which is located in the northwest of the South China Sea, sustained damage as the result of heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon Doksuri. A total of 100 hectares (245 acres) of crops were destroyed. There were no reported casualties or damage to properties resulting from the typhoon.

Vietnam Despite the government-ordered evacuation of some 80,000 residents ahead of Doksuri’s arrival, at least nine people were killed and a further 215 were injured in Vietnam’s North Central Coast region. An additional four people were officially listed as missing in Quảng Bình.

Quảng Bình and Hà Tĩnh provinces, where the typhoon made landfall, bore the brunt of the damage although damage was noted in Thanh Hóa, Nghệ An, Quảng Trị, and Thừa Thiên-Huế. The worst affected areas were towns and communes located on or near the coast. At least 1,185 homes were destroyed while more than 200,000 sustained severe damage due to the typhoon’s powerful winds. A further 11,018 homes were reported to have sustained flood damage.

Atimonan Municipal Hall, Quezon (Source: Quezon DRRMC)



Agricultural interests in the region also sustained damage as some 20,000 hectares (49,420 acres) of rice were destroyed. Damage was also reported to 400 hectares (990 acres) of grapefruits in Hương Khê District, Hà Tĩnh.

Significant damage to infrastructure was also reported as almost 28 kilometers (17 miles) of roads were damaged, 27 kilometers (17 miles) of irrigation canals were damaged and 29 sea dykes sustained damage. Additional damage to the electrical grid was reported as approximately 3,000 power poles were broken leaving 1.5 million households without power, the majority of which were without electricity for as many as four days. Worst affected by the outages were rural communities. Damage to potable water supply systems was also reported from several coastal towns as some 1,800 wells were contaminated by salt water: Kỳ Ninh commune in Hà Tĩnh was particularly badly affected.

Other losses due to Doksuri in Vietnam included at least nine boats that capsized and sank and damage to a further 220 vessels. Disruption to air travel was also reported as approximately 60 flights were cancelled, including 40 domestic flights between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

Laos At least one person was killed in the southern Laotian province of Savannakhet when the remnants of Doksuri tracked across the region. A meteorological station there recorded 104.0 millimeters (4.1 inches) of rain in 24 hours on September 15. According to local officials approximately 7,000 families in 72 villages were affected by the inclement weather conditions generated by the storm. Approximately 15 homes sustained damage in Vilabouly district while damage to agriculture throughout the region totaled 1,000 hectares (2,470 acres) of rice paddies and 40 hectares (100 acres) of rubber trees. In addition, multiple heads of livestock were lost along with 150 poultry and 100 fishponds.

Thailand

There were no reports of any casualties in Thailand resulting from Doksuri however flooding was reported from 12 northern and northeastern provinces from September 15-19. Kalasin, Phitsanulok, and Satun

were among the hardest hit areas by floods while Nakhon Phanom was also hit by strong winds. Sustained wind speeds of 35 kph (22 mph) and gust of up to 61 kph (38 mph) were reported on the afternoon of September 15. Selected 24-hour rainfall totals from the World Meteorological Organization for Thailand are given in the table on the left.

Location, Date 24-hour Rainfall (mm) Nakhon Phanom, Sept. 16 130.0 Phrae, Sept. 17 115.5 Phitsanulok, Sept. 16 114.0 Pichit, Sept. 16 110.0 Doi Ang Khang, Sept. 17 89.1

Kỳ Anh town, Hà Tĩnh province (Source: Agence France-Presse)

Damaged school, Quảng Bình province (Source: Tuoi Tre)



The affected provinces were Chaiyaphum, Chiang Rai, Kalasin, Lampang, Loei, Phangnga, Phetchabun, Phitsanulok, Phrae, Sakon Nakhon, Satun, and Uttaradit. In total it was reported that more than 9,500 homes and 2,100 hectares (5,190 acres) of agricultural land were damaged.

Multiple trees and approximately 30 power poles were toppled in Muang district, Nakhon Phanom prompting power outages for several communities. In the neighboring province of Sakon Nakhon, multiple communities in Muang district were flooded including 50 homes in Na Fai village that were submerged by water up to 0.7 meters (2.3 feet) deep. Additional flooding of homes was reported in Nam Pat district (30) and Thong Saen Khan District (60), both in Uttaradit province. Additional flooding of agricultural areas, homes, and infrastructure was noted in Chaiyaphum, Kalasin, Phitsanulok, Lampang, and Pichit provinces.

Financial Losses The Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council reported that economic losses to agriculture and infrastructure alone in Calabarzon Region amounted to slightly more than PHP267 million (USD5.3 million). Total economic losses were expected to be much higher.

Losses in China’s Hainan province were listed by the MCA at CNY59 million (USD9.0 million).

Damage to property alone in Vietnam was minimally estimated at VND11 trillion (USD484 million), of which VND6.0 trillion (USD264 million) was in Hà Tĩnh alone. Damage to the grapefruit crop was estimated at VND170 billion (USD7.5 million) in Hương Khê District, Hà Tĩnh province while one frozen food business reported losses of VND7.0 billion (USD308,000).

Economic losses sustained in Laos were expected to be minimal.

Typhoon Talim

Meteorological Recap The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) first started monitoring a tropical disturbance on September 6 (UTC) in the open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean. With a steering ridge of high pressure to the system’s north, it helped push the organizing cluster of thunderstorms generally towards the west. On September 9, the JTWC noted that the system had shown enough development to be deemed Tropical Storm Talim with 65 kph (40 mph) winds. Talim maintained tropical storm strength while steadily strengthening through September 11.

By September 12, Talim reached minimal typhoon strength as it started to approach southern Japan’s Ryukyu Islands. During this time, it entered an area with increasingly favorable atmospheric conditions (notably, lessening wind shear) and very warm sea surface temperatures. This allowed Talim to undergo a rapid intensification cycle where the cyclone strengthened from a 140-kph (85-mph) Category 1 system on September 13 (06:00 UTC) to a 220-kph (140-mph) Category 4 system on September 14 (06:00 UTC). While reaching peak intensity, the steering currents began to weaken as Talim’s forward motion significantly slowed as it hovered just north of Taiwan and east of mainland China.

Chaiyaphum, Thailand (Source: Bangkok Post)



With an approaching frontal boundary nearing Talim on September 14 and 15, increasing vertical wind shear started to take its toll on the cyclone and disrupting its inner core. This caused Talim to begin weakening while slowly starting to accelerate north-northeastward towards southern Japan. Steady weakening continued up until landfall as a 100-kph (65-mph) tropical storm in Japan’s Kyushu at 11:30PM JST local time on September 17. Despite weakening, Talim brought torrential rainfall and typhoon-strength wind gusts across mainland Japan through September 18.

After exiting Japan, Talim lost all tropical characteristics and accelerated into the open waters of the Pacific Ocean.

Talim became the 17th named storm of the 2017 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season and the sixth typhoon of the year in the basin. It was also the second-strongest cyclone in the basin thus far after July’s Typhoon Noru.

Event Details Selected 24-hour rainfall totals from the World Meteorological Organization are given in the table below.

Location, Date 24-hour Rainfall Total (mm) Location, Date 24-hour Rainfall Total (mm) Miyakojima, Sept. 14 455.5 Himeji, Sept. 18 132.0 Miyazaki, Sept. 16 248.0 Hiroo, Sept. 18 130.0 Oita, Sept. 18 242.0 Nobeoka, Sept. 18 127.0 Hachijojima, Sept. 17 230.0 Sakai, Sept. 18 126.0 Owase, Sept. 18 194.0 Asosan, Sept. 18 122.0 Matsuyama, Sept. 18 187.5 Yonago, Sept. 18 121.0 Takamatsu, Sept. 18 162.5 Tadotsu, Sept. 18 120.0 Aburatsu, Sept. 16 159.0 Shionomisaki, Sept. 17 118.0 Tottori, Sept. 18 153.5 Unzendake, Sept. 18 118.0 Miyako, Sept. 18 146.0 Okayama, Sept. 18 116.5 Toyooka, Sept. 18 146.0 Miyazaki, Sept. 17 115.0 Owase, Sept. 17 144.0 Tsuyama, Sept. 18 107.0 Maizuru, Sept. 18 139.0 Nobeoka, Sept. 17 103.0 Ofunato, Sept. 18 139.0 Uwajima, Sept. 18 103.0 Nikko, Sept. 18 133.0 At least two people were killed - one each in Kagawa and Kochi prefectures - while one other person was listed as missing in Oita as Talim brought powerful wind gusts and heavy downpours across Japan. At least 56 people in multiple prefectures sustained injuries including seven who were severely hurt. The majority of injuries were reported as the result of being struck by flying debris or downed trees, or being swept away by flooding or landslides.

Almost 4,100 homes were damaged or destroyed across Japan including three that were destroyed (in Kagawa and Oita prefectures); two that sustained severe damage, 385 that were damaged, and 3,668 that sustained flood damage. A further 22 public buildings were also damaged. The majority of the

Talim crossing East China Sea on Sep14 (Source: NASA, CSU)



damaged homes and buildings were in Oita (2,132). Significant numbers of damaged buildings were also reported in Kagawa (373), Ehime (315), Kyoto (306), Miyazaki (242), and Hyogo (202).

Talim also caused severe disruption to air travel across Japan on September 17-18 as more than 800 flights were cancelled on Sunday and a further 270 were cancelled on Monday. Bullet train services were also suspended due to high winds while in Yamagata prefecture a bullet train struck a tree which had fallen on the tracks. There were no reports of any injuries as a result of the collision. Travel by road was also hindered as flooding and landslides blocked multiple roads, particularly in Oita where approximately 1,200 people were cut off in the cities of Saiki and Tsukumi.

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Severe Weather (China) China’s Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces were subject to a severe weather outbreak from September 16-17 that led to extensive crop damage. Strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours affected corn and potato crops among others. The total agricultural area affected was 500 hectares (1,235 acres), of which 80 percent were destroyed. Additionally more than 2,200 homes were damaged and a further 200 were destroyed. The MCA listed economic losses at CNY6.0 million (USD900,000). A further severe weather outbreak in Heilongjiang led to further agricultural damage on September 18. Some 7,700 hectares (19,025 acres) of crops were affected leading to economic losses of CNY17 million (USD2.6 million). Flooding (China) Heavy rainfall in portions of south-central China on September 18-19 led to extensive flooding in parts of Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Guizhou provinces. One person was killed in Chongqing while more than 1,500 residents were evacuated. Across all affected provinces, some 2,200 homes were damaged while a further 200 were destroyed. The majority of the damaged/destroyed homes were in Chongqing (1,800/200). Significant agricultural damage was also reported as 1,700 hectares (4,200 acres) of crops were affected, again, the bulk of which were in Chongqing (1,300 hectares (3,210 acres)). The MCA listed aggregated economic losses at CNY171 million (USD26 million), of which CNY160 million (USD24 million) was incurred in Chongqing. Flooding (Democratic Republic of Congo) At least 12 people died and 92 others were listed as missing after a torrential downpour caused flash flooding in Bihambwe town, North Kiwu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo on September 19. Due to a scarcity of information, it is not possible to estimate the scope of the disaster. Early reports estimated that at least 100 houses were destroyed. Several villages surrounding Bihambwe were also impacted. Flooding (India) Further flooding impacted India’s Mumbai from September 19-20 as up to 303 millimeters (11.9 inches) of rain was reported in the city’s suburbs in just 24 hours. A total of 276 millimeters (10.9 inches) was recorded in Santa Cruz, located near the city’s Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport. The floods caused extensive disruption as authorities shut down offices, businesses, and schools, and public transport services ground to a standstill. At least 13 buses were submerged by floodwaters across the city. At Mumbai’s airport a plane skidded off the runway on landing causing lengthy delays to flights and at least 50 cancellations. Multiple more flights were diverted. There were no reports of any casualties.

Konan, Kochi Prefecture (Source: The Japan News)



Severe Weather (United States) An outbreak of severe weather impacted the northern Plains on September 19 as an area of low pressure, accompanied by favorable mid- and upper-level atmospheric conditions, triggered powerful thunderstorms over the Dakotas and Minnesota. Preliminary surveys indicated that three tornadoes touched down in South Dakota - one rated at EF1 and two at EF0. The EF1-rated twister prompted damage to crops and agricultural damage near Tulare. Elsewhere up to tennis ball-sized hail (2.50 inches (64 millimeters) in diameter) was reported near Monango, North Dakota while quarter-sized hail (1.00 inch (25 millimeters) in diameter) prompted damage to fruit trees in Brown County, SD. Extensive damage due to powerful straight line wind gusts was noted throughout all three affected states and included numerous reports of downed trees and power lines and damage to roofs and agricultural structures. Severe Weather (Romania) Widespread damage was incurred in western Romania during the evening of September 17 as intense straight-line winds gusted across the region. The winds were generated by storms that formed along a frontal boundary between the hot Balkan Peninsula and much cooler central Europe. The storms tracked across Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia prior to reaching Romania. Eight people died in Romania, while a further 137 sustained injuries. Among the worst affected areas was Timiş county with five fatalities and 49 people injured. Widespread damage was reported from the county’s capital, Timișoara. Damage was reported from more than 200 locations in total across 15 counties. Preliminary surveys revealed that at least 137 roofs were damaged, hundreds of trees were toppled, and dozens of cars were damaged. Traffic was disrupted on several national roads and railway routes. Preliminary loss estimates placed damage to public property at RON28 million (USD7.3 million). Flooding (Malaysia) Heavy downpours over Penang, Malaysia led to extensive flooding on September 15. Butterworth recorded a 24-hour rainfall total of 129.6 millimeters (5.1 inches) while Bayan Lepas recorded 86.0 millimeters (3.4 inches). A total of 270.0 millimeters (10.6 inches) was reported at Air Itam Dam which is the highest 24-hour rainfall total ever recorded in Penang. More than 100 homes were flooded in Kampung Malaysia, Mak Mandin, Taman Cantek, Kampung Sethu, and Kampung Permatang Rawa while more than 32 streets and roads were submerged by floodwaters up to 0.6 meters (2.0 feet) deep. Multiple cars and vehicles were swept away while the sports complex at Paya Terubong was also inundated. At least one school was also damaged by floodwaters. Additionally, some minor landslides were reported including one that buried six vehicles in Medan Fettes.



Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast

This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of the mean surface air temperatures (2 meters above the surface). Probabilities indicate the percent of ensemble members that predict temperatures significantly above normal, near normal, or significantly below normal. Source: Climate Prediction Center



Global Precipitation Anomaly Forecast

This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of accumulated precipitation. Probabilities are derived from the fraction of ensemble precipitation forecasts exceeding various thresholds. Source: Climate Prediction Center



Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)

The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS' operational daily global 5 km Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.

Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C) Tropical Atlantic Ocean (1,025 miles E of Martinique) 28.3 0.0 Eastern Gulf of Mexico (130 miles ESE of Pensacola, Florida) 29.3 -0.1 Western Gulf of Mexico (60 miles SE of Corpus Christi, Texas) 29.5 -0.8 Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 21.7 -1.2 Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 30.2 -0.1 Eastern Indian Ocean (505 miles WSW of Bengkulu, Indonesia) 28.3 N/A Western Indian Ocean (115 miles ENE of Victoria, Seychelles) 27.8 0.0

Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center



El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle.

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.

El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

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Source: NOAA



Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center



Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion** HU Maria 21.0°N, 70.2°W 125 mph 65 miles (110 kilometers) ESE of Grand Turk Island NW at 8 mph



Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): September 15 – 21

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information

Source: United States Geological Survey

Date Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter 09/19/17 18.584°N 98.399°W 7.1 51.0 km 5 kilometers (3 miles) ENE of Raboso, Mexico 09/20/17 50.371°S 162.550°E 6.1 10.0 km 256 kilometers (159 miles) W of Auckland Island, New Zealand 09/20/17 37.982°N 144.669°E 6.1 10.0 km 281 kilometers (175 miles) ESE of Kamaishi, Japan 09/20/17 18.798°S 169.095°E 6.4 200.2 km 85 kilometers (53 miles) NNW of Isangel, Vanuatu



U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats Much above normal temperatures are forecast for the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valleys, the

Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on September 24-25 due to the presence of a strong high pressure ridge while a deep trough will mean that much of the West experiences below normal temperatures through this period. Temperature anomalies may be as much as 20 degrees Fahrenheit above or below average.

A strong frontal system is likely to generate heavy rainfall for parts of the Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through September 24-25 as it moves across the West in tandem with a strong mid-level trough. As it progresses southward Central and Southern portions of the Plains are also likely to see heavy rainfall from Tuesday through Thursday.

At this time, Hurricane Maria does not pose a direct threat to the contiguous United States however as it moves across the western Atlantic it will generate significant waves for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastlines.

Flooding is still ongoing in parts of Florida following Hurricane Irma while the latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that severe to exceptional drought now covers some 5.6 percent of the country.

Source: Climate Prediction Center



Current U.S. River Flood Stage Status

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage

Source: United States Geological Survey

Location Flood Stage (ft) Current Stage (ft) % of Full Capacity Rio Grande de Anasco near San Sebastian, Puerto Rico 11.00 41.90 381% Rio de la Plata at Comerio, Puerto Rico 11.00 30.48 277% Rio Grande de Manati near Morovis, Puerto Rico 10.00 18.55 186% Withlacoochee River at Trilby, Florida 12.00 17.66 147% St. Johns River at Astor, Florida 2.80 3.97 142%



Source Information Maria becomes 2nd landfalling Category 5 storm of 2017: Hurricane Maria Makes Landfall on Puerto Rico – Live Updates, The Guardian Multiple articles published by The Associated Press National Hurricane Center National Weather Service Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency Major M7.1 earthquake strikes Mexico: 7.1 Magnitude Quake Kills 139 as Buildings Crumble in Mexico, The Associated Press Mexico Earthquake: at Least 225 Dead after Powerful earthquake – Latest Updates, The Guardian Multiple articles published by El País Multiple articles published in El Universal United States Geological Survey Government of Mexico Western Pacific active as Doksuri & Talim make landfall: Houses Flattened and Businesses Destroyed as Typhoon Doksuri Tears Through Central Vietnam, Killing Four, South China Morning Post VN Red Cross Request Help for Doksuri Victims, Việt Nam News The Central Region Lost More than VND11 Trillion due to Typhoon Doksuri, VN Express Bodies of Three Victims Found in Maed Landslide, Vientiane Times Doksuri Triggers Flooding in North, Northeast, Bangkok Post Typhoon Talim Rumbles Through Hokkaido after Leaving Two Dead in Shikoku, The Japan Times Talim Slams Hokkaido, NHK Joint Typhoon Warning Center Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs FloodList Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency World Meteorological Organization Natural Catastrophes: In Brief: Dead and Wounded. Images of the Disaster Left Behind by the Storm that Struck Timisoara with Rage, Opinia Timisoarei Heavy Rains Batter Mumbai Yet Again; Air, Rail Traffic Hit, Reuters Heavy Rains Pound Mumbai, Throw Life Out of Gear, The Times of India Flights, Trains in Turmoil as Rains Hit India's Finance Hub, Bloomberg Over 100 Homes Flooded, Cars Seen Floating in Penang, The Star At Least 10 Dead, 92 Missing in Eastern Congo Floods: Local Official, Reuters United States Storm Prediction Center United States National Weather Service China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs World Meteorological Organization



Contact Information

Steve Bowen Director (Meteorologist) Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +1.312.381.5883 [email protected] Claire Darbinyan Associate Director (Meteorologist) Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +65.6645.0110 [email protected] Michal Lörinc Catastrophe Analyst Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +420.234.618.358 [email protected]

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About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright © by Impact Forecasting® No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright © by Aon plc.

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