Current Watches and Warnings - Aon...

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Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Indian Pass; Florida Keys; Lake Okeechobee; Florida Bay; Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana; Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County line

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet; North Miami Beach southward around the Florida Peninsula to the Ochlockonee River; Florida Keys; Tampa Bay

Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

COORDINATES: 25.0° north, 81.5° west LOCATION: 80 miles (125 kilometers) south-southeast of Naples, Florida MOVEMENT: north at 9 mph (15 kph) WINDS: 130 mph (210 kph) with gusts to 160 mph (260 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 220 miles (350 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 80 miles (130 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 933 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 4 Hurricane 1st LANDFALL LOCATION: Cudjoe Key (Florida Keys) 1st LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 9:10 AM local time (13:10 UTC) 1st LANDFALL INTENSITY: 130 mph (210 kph) – Category 4 Hurricane 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH (Florida West Coast) 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH


Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 2

Latest Satellite Picture

Source: NOAA



Discussion Hurricane Irma, located approximately 80 miles (125 kilometers) south-southeast of Naples, Florida, is currently tracking north at 9 mph (15 kph). Latest observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flight-level winds that corresponded to surface winds justifying the NHC maintaining Irma’s intensity at 130 mph (210 kph) – a Category 4 storm. Irma should maintain this intensity until the center reaches the southwest Florida coast, and then begin to weaken while the system interacts with the landmass of the Florida peninsula. Increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level frontal boundary should also cause weakening of the hurricane during the next day or so. More rapid weakening is likely after Irma moves into the southeastern United States within the next 24 to 36 hours, and the cyclone should weaken to a remnant low in 72 hours (or sooner). The official NHC intensity forecast is close to the forecast model consensus.

The center of Irma wobbled more northward over the past few hours. Irma is embedded within a broad mid-level gyre over the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone is expected to be steered north-northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next day or two on the eastern side of the gyre. This will take Irma inland over northern Florida early on Monday and the southeastern United States over the next couple of days. The model track guidance remains fairly tightly clustered, with the ECMWF (Euro) track a little to the left and slower than the other models. The official NHC track forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF solution. This is just slightly east of the previous official forecast.

Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center

1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida today and spread into central and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday. Preparations in central and northwestern Florida should be rushed to completion.

2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding across much of Florida and many other parts of the southeast United States. Rainfall occurring very quickly, at 2 to 4 inches per hour, will lead to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average rainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are expected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Alabama and Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur.



Additional Information

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

Cape Sable to Captiva: 10 to 15 feet Captiva to Ana Maria Island: 6 to 10 feet Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys: 5 to 10 feet Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay: 5 to 8 feet North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay: 3 to 5 feet South Santee River to Fernandina Beach: 4 to 6 feet Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River: 4 to 6 feet Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet: 2 to 4 feet North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet: 1 to 2 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Water levels along the north coast of Cuba will gradually subside today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the Hurricane Warning area along the north coast of Cuba through this morning. Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday:

Western Cuba: additional 1 to 3 inches (isolated 5 inches) Western Bahamas: additional 2 to 4 inches (isolated 6 inches) The Florida Keys: 15 to 20 inches (isolated 25 inches) Western Florida peninsula: 10 to 15 inches (isolated 20 inches) Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 16 inches) The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern & western South Carolina, and western North Carolina: 3 to 8 inches (isolated 12 inches) Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee: 2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula.



THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.



National Hurricane Center Forecast



Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds



National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities

Tropical Storm-Force Wind Probabilities (≥40 mph (65 kph))



Wind Probabilities (≥60 mph (95 kph))



Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities (≥75 mph (120 kph))



NHC: Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic



NHC: Storm Surge Inundation Graphic



Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential



Current ‘Spaghetti’ Model Output Data

Source: NHC

Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov NEXT CAT ALERT: Sunday afternoon after 4:00 PM Central Time (21:00 UTC).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



*Tropical Cyclone Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU

KTS1 MPH1 KPH1

NE Pacific, Atlantic

NW Pacific

NW Pacific

SW Pacific Australia SW

Indian North Indian

National Hurricane

Center (NHC)

Joint Typhoon Warning

Center (JTWC)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS)

Bureau Of Meteorology

(BOM) Meteo-France

(MF)

India Meteorological

Department (IMD)

30 35 55 Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Low

Tropical Depression

Deep Depression

35 40 65

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Cat. 1 Tropical Cyclone


Moderate Tropical Storm

Cyclonic Storm 40 45 75

45 50 85

50 60 95 Severe Tropical Storm



Severe Tropical Storm

Severe Cyclonic Storm

55 65 100

60 70 110

65 75 120

Cat. 1 Hurricane

Typhoon

Typhoon

Cat. 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone


Tropical Cyclone

Very Severe

Cyclonic Storm

70 80 130

75 85 140

80 90 150

85 100 160

Cat. 2 Hurricane 90 105 170


Cat. 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Intense

Tropical Cyclone

95 110 175

100 115 185

Cat. 3 Major

Hurricane

105 120 195

110 125 205



115 130 210

120 140 220

Cat. 4 Major

Hurricane Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

Super Cyclonic Storm

125 145 230

130 150 240

Super Typhoon

135 155 250

140 160 260 Cat. 5 Major

Hurricane >140 >160 >260



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Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright © by Impact Forecasting® No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright © by Aon plc.

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