Week 8 Presidential Report

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USA Presidential Race 2012 By Battleground States

Date Range: October 27 – November 2, 2012

6%

15% 7%

39%

17%

5% 11%

Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS

Middle Class Jobs/Economy

Budget/Deficit Obamacare

Foreign Policy

*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *

100%

All Eight States

2

Share of Voice – Key Issues

Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)

KEY FINDINGS:

After having a huge boost in share of voice the

previous week, this week, “Foreign Policy” lost

awareness in all eight states and dropped by

18.4% in share of voice. “Jobs/Economy”

returned to be the most discussed issue, after

having an increase of 9.7% in share of voice.

• Obama: Obama led in sentiment in all eight

states. His total Sentiment Score decreased

slightly by 0.2, but still stayed positive (0.6).

He was believed by many people in all eight

states to be the better candidate, especially

for protecting the middle class and restoring

the economy.

• Romney: Romney’s total Sentiment Score

improved slightly by 0.5, but still remained

negative (-6.8). He was mostly criticized for

the fact that he had his company, Bain

Capital, shift jobs to China.

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change

Abortion/Choice 6.1% 5.5% 0.6%

Medicare/Social

Security 14.5% 10.9% 3.6%

Protecting the

middle class 6.9% 5.1% 1.8%

Jobs/Economy 39.5% 29.8% 9.7%

Budget deficit 17.2% 16.2% 1.0%

Obamacare 5.0% 3.3% 1.7%

Foreign Policy 10.8% 29.2% 18.4%

Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change

Obama 0.6 0.8 0.2

Romney -6.8 -7.3 0.5

5% 13%

7%

37%

21%

6% 11%




Foreign Policy


100%

Wisconsin

3



KEY FINDINGS:

Wisconsinites shifted their attention from the

issue “Foreign Policy” to the issue

“Jobs/Economy” this week. As a result,

“Jobs/Economy” boosted by 15.2%, while

“Foreign Policy” dropped by 20.3% in share of

voice.

• Obama: Obama led in volume this week

with over 3,500 mentions. He also led in

sentiment with a positive score of 3.7.

Although he still received negative

comments for the high unemployment rate,

many Wisconsinites believed that Obama

would truly care for the middle class and

restore the economy.

• Romney: Romney had about 3,000

mentions in Wisconsin this week. His

Sentiment Score improved by 1.0 to a score

of -4.8. Most of the negative comments

towards Romney stated that his economic

plan was not trustworthy.


Obama 3.7 3.4 0.3

Romney -4.8 -5.8 1.0

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 12.9% 11.0% 1.9%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 37.6% 22.4% 15.2%


Obamacare 6.3% 2.4% 3.9%



100%

Virginia

4



KEY FINDINGS:

The issue “Foreign Policy” also lost awareness

(-20.7%) in Virginia this week, while people

were more concerned about the issues

“Medicare/Social Security” and “Budget deficit”

(+9.3% and +9.0%, respectively).

“Jobs/Economy” remained the most popular

issue.



volume with a positive score of 1.9 (up 2.1).

Obama enjoyed more positive comments

from Virginians as job growth quickened.

• Romney: The volume of conversations

about Romney was around 5,000. His

Sentiment Score decreased by 4.5 to a

score of -11.3. Romney was heavily

criticized for his poor Medicare program and

for the fact that he shifted jobs to China.


Obama 1.9 -0.2 2.1

Romney -11.3 -6.8 4.5

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 17.0% 7.7% 9.3%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 35.3% 36.4% 1.1%


Obamacare 6.0% 1.7% 4.3%


4%

17% 7%

35%

23%

6% 8%




Foreign Policy


100%

North Carolina

5



KEY FINDINGS:

This week, North Carolinians returned to their

favorite issue “Jobs/Economy”, which increased

by 21.6%. The issue “Foreign Policy” lost

awareness and dropped by 26.9%.


with over 7,000 mentions. He led in

sentiment as well with a score of 0.4 (up

1.1). The improvement in the jobs report

helped Obama to win positive comments

from North Carolinians.

• Romney: Romney had about 4,500

mentions this week in North Carolina. His

Sentiment Score improved by 1.6, but still

stayed negative (-5.6). Romney was mostly

criticized for the fact that he shifted jobs in

his firm to China. He also received negative

comments on his foreign policies for the

Middle East.


Obama 0.4 -0.7 1.1

Romney -5.6 -7.2 1.6

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 15.4% 9.6% 5.8%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 44.3% 22.7% 21.6%


Obamacare 5.0% 3.3% 1.7%


4%

15% 7%

44%

15%

5% 10%




Foreign Policy

7%

13%

7%

37%

19%

5% 12%




Foreign Policy


100%

Florida

6



KEY FINDINGS:

Floridians mostly discussed “Jobs/Economy”

this week (37.2% share of voice). Meanwhile,

the issue “Foreign Policy” had a big drop of

11.3% in share of voice.



sentiment with a score of 0.1 (down -0.7).

There were many negative comments

blaming Obama for the national debt.

However, many other Floridians believed

that he would be the better candidate to

restore the economy and care for the middle

class.

• Romney: The amount of conversations


Sentiment Score stayed negative at -3.8

(though up 1.4). Most of the negative

comments from Floridians towards Romney

targeted his poorly planned Medicare

program and his foreign policies in the

Middle East.


Obama 0.1 0.8 0.7

Romney -3.8 -5.2 1.4

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 13.0% 13.4% 0.4%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 37.2% 33.6% 3.6%


Obamacare 5.5% 4.5% 1.0%



100%

Ohio

7



KEY FINDINGS:

“Jobs/Economy”, which increased by 10.1% in

share of voice, was the most discussed issue

this week in Ohio. “Medicare/Social Security”

increased by 5.5% and was the second most

discussed issue. Meanwhile, “Foreign Policy”

dropped by 20.4% in share of voice.



sentiment, even though his Sentiment Score

dropped by 6.6 to a negative score of -1.4.

Obama was blamed by Ohioans for the job

loss in the auto industry in Ohio. Some of

the negative comments also criticized his

health care plans.

• Romney: Romney received about 7,000

mentions in Ohio this week. His Sentiment

Score did not change much (down 0.2).

Ohioans mostly complained about the fact

that he shifted jobs from his company, Bain

Capital, to China.


Obama -1.4 5.2 6.6

Romney -5.1 -4.9 0.2

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 15.3% 9.8% 5.5%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 42.4% 32.3% 10.1%


Obamacare 3.8% 3.1% 0.7%


8%

15%

7% 42%

13%

4% 11%




Foreign Policy


100%

Colorado

8



KEY FINDINGS:

In Colorado this week, “Jobs/Economy” became

the most discussed issue with 36.1% share of

voice (+15.5%). Coloradoans talked less about

“Foreign Policy”, making it drop by 20.1% in

share of voice. “Medicare/Social Security” was

the second most discussed issue with 18.7%

share of voice.



sentiment as well with a positive score of 0.5

(up 1.2). The fact that the job growth

quickened helped Obama earn many

positive comments from Coloradoans this

week.

• Romney: The volume of conversations


Sentiment Score improved by 4.8 to a score

of -4.5. The fact that his company, Bain

Capital, moved jobs to China brought many

negative comments from Coloradoans this

week.


Obama 0.5 -0.7 1.2

Romney -4.5 -9.3 4.8

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 18.7% 9.8% 8.9%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 36.1% 20.6% 15.5%


Obamacare 2.9% 3.3% 0.4%


6%

19%

8% 36%

15%

3% 13%




Foreign Policy


100%

New Hampshire

9



KEY FINDINGS:

People in New Hampshire discussed much

more about “Jobs/Economy” and much less

about “Foreign Policy” (+31.1% and -29.8%,

respectively). “Budget deficit” was the second

most discussed issue with 11.4% share of voice

(-10.2%).



sentiment with a positive score of 1.7 (up

3.5). He received positive comments for his

health care plan and his plan for the middle

class.

• Romney: Romney had about 500 mentions

in New Hampshire this week. His Sentiment

Score improved a bit (up 2.5), but was still a

high negative number (-14.4). The negative

comments towards Romney came from his

aggressive foreign policies in the Middle

East and his poor Medicare program.


Obama 1.7 -1.8 3.5

Romney -14.4 -16.9 2.5

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 9.5% 7.4% 2.1%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 53.2% 22.1% 31.1%


Obamacare 2.6% 1.3% 1.3%


8% 10%

6%

53%

11% 3% 9%




Foreign Policy


100%

Nevada

10



KEY FINDINGS:

“Jobs/Economy” was also the hottest issue in

Nevada this week, after having a boost of

27.2% in share of voice. “Foreign Policy”

dropped by 23.0% in share of voice, depicting

the loss in popularity of this issue in Nevada.



sentiment as well, after having his Sentiment

Score increase by 0.4. Many Nevadans said

that Obama had failed the US economy.

• Romney: Romney received about 1,900

mentions this week. His Sentiment Score

decreased some, by 0.1. Nevadans this

week were highly concerned about

Romney’s ad, in which he noted that Jeep

was shipping jobs to China; Nevadans

criticized Romney for being a liar in the ad.

The candidate was also criticized for his

stance against abortion.


Obama -0.8 -1.2 0.4

Romney -6.8 -6.7 0.1

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 8.1% 13.3% 5.2%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 50.8% 23.6% 27.2%


Obamacare 5.6% 2.8% 2.8%


9% 8%

6%

51%

13%

5% 8%




Foreign Policy

Candidate Sentiment Score* by State

11

State Obama Romney

Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change

Wisconsin 3.7 3.4 0.3 -4.8 -5.8 1.0

Virginia 1.9 -0.2 2.1 -11.3 -6.8 4.5

North Carolina 0.4 -0.7 1.1 -5.6 -7.2 1.6

Florida 0.1 0.8 0.7 -3.8 -5.2 1.4

Ohio -1.4 5.2 6.6 -5.1 -4.9 0.2

Colorado 0.5 -0.7 1.2 -4.5 -9.3 4.8

New Hampshire 1.7 -1.8 3.5 -14.4 -16.9 2.5

Nevada -0.8 -1.2 0.4 -6.8 -6.7 0.1

• Obama’s Sentiment Score was positive in most states (the exceptions were Ohio and Nevada). He led in

sentiment in all states.

• Romney’s Sentiment Score was negative in all states. Virginia and Colorado were the two states where

his score changed significantly (-4.5 and +4.8, respectively).

*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%

Share of Voice for Key Issues by State

12

State Abortion/

Choice

Medicare/

Social

Security

Protecting

the middle

class

Jobs/

Economy

Budget

deficit Obamacare

Foreign

Policy

Wisconsin 5.1% 12.9% 6.6% 37.6% 20.7% 6.3% 10.8%

Virginia 3.7% 17.0% 7.0% 35.3% 22.8% 6.0% 8.2%

North

Carolina 4.3% 15.4% 6.5% 44.3% 14.5% 5.0% 10.0%

Florida 6.6% 13.0% 6.6% 37.2% 19.2% 5.5% 11.9%

Ohio 7.7% 15.3% 7.4% 42.3% 12.5% 3.8% 10.9%

Colorado 6.4% 18.7% 7.9% 36.1% 14.5% 2.9% 13.5%

New

Hampshire 7.9% 9.5% 6.3% 53.2% 11.4% 2.6% 9.1%

Nevada 9.0% 8.1% 5.8% 50.8% 12.8% 5.6% 7.9%

• This week, “Jobs/Economy” returned to be the most popular issue in all eight states. On the other hand,

“Budget deficit” was most popular in Virginia, and “Medicare/Social Security” was most popular in

Colorado.

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Week 8 Presidential Report

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