Week 6: Presidential Race Report

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USA Presidential Race 2012 By Battleground States

Date Range: October 13 – October 19, 2012

8% 10%

10%

40%

17%

4% 11%

Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS

Middle Class Jobs/Economy

Budget/Deficit Obamacare

Foreign Policy

*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *

100%

All Eight States

2

Share of Voice – Key Issues

Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)

KEY FINDINGS:

The two issues that saw an increase in share of

voice this week were “Protecting the middle

class” (+1.4%) and “Jobs/Economy” (+9.2%).

“Jobs/Economy” remained the most discussed

issue and “Budget deficit” stayed the second

most discussed one.

• Obama: Obama only led in sentiment in

Wisconsin and Ohio. His Total Sentiment

Score in all eight states increased slightly by

1.1.

• Romney: Romney led in volume in all eight

states this week, with Florida leading the

pack. His Total Sentiment Score in all eight

states improved more than Obama’s (+2.7)

and was less negative than Obama’s.

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change

Abortion/Choice 7.7% 9.0% 1.3%

Medicare/Social

Security 10.1% 13.3% 3.2%

Protecting the

middle class 9.7% 8.3% 1.4%

Jobs/Economy 40.3% 31.1% 9.2%

Budget deficit 17.0% 17.3% 0.3%

Obamacare 3.9% 4.9% 1.0%

Foreign Policy 11.3% 16.1% 4.8%

Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change

Obama -6.1 -7.2 1.1

Romney -3.5 -6.2 2.7

6% 8%

14%

48%

13% 2% 9%




Foreign Policy


100%

Wisconsin

3



KEY FINDINGS:

“Jobs/Economy” was the most discussed issue

this week in Wisconsin, after having a boost of

7.5% in share of voice. “Obamacare” continued

to be the least discussed issue this week with

2.3% in share of voice.

• Obama: The amount of conversations

about Obama was about 6,000. He led in

sentiment with a score of -0.9 (+5.9). There

were many Wisconsinites who thought

Obama did a bad job on fixing the economy.

However, with a better performance in the

debate on Tuesday, he received many

positive comments on other issues,

especially on “Foreign Policy” with his

answer for the Libya attack.

• Romney: Romney led in volume this week

with over 8,000 mentions. With a score of

-2.7 (+3.0), he stayed behind Obama in

sentiment. He was heavily criticized for not

caring about women and the middle class.


Obama -0.9 -6.8 5.9

Romney -2.7 -5.7 3.0

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 7.9% 11.2% 3.3%

Protecting the

middle class 14.0% 14.8% 0.8%

Jobs/Economy 48.3% 40.8% 7.5%


Obamacare 2.3% 2.3% 0%



100%

Virginia

4



KEY FINDINGS:

“Jobs/Economy” stayed the most discussed

issue in Virginia this week with 45.2% share of

voice, after having an increase of 5.4%.

“Foreign Policy” saw a drop of 5.3% in share of

voice.

• Obama: Obama had about 12,000

mentions in Virginia this week. His

Sentiment Score did not improve much and

stayed at -7.5. Most of the negative

comments about Obama were on the

“Jobs/Economy” issue.

• Romney: Romney led in volume with over

15,000 mentions. He also led in sentiment

with a score of -1.7 (+7.7). Many people

said that Romney won the debate on the

“Jobs/Economy” issue. However, he

received negative comments on his pro-life

stance and his plan for the middle class.


Obama -7.5 -7.6 0.1

Romney -1.7 -9.4 7.7

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 8.7% 8.7% 0%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 45.2% 39.8% 5.4%


Obamacare 3.0% 2.7% 0.3%


8% 9%

7%

45%

16%

3% 12%




Foreign Policy


100%

North Carolina

5



KEY FINDINGS:

“Jobs/Economy” was the hottest issue in North

Carolina this week, its share of voice increasing

by 9.5%. “Protecting the middle class” and

“Budget deficit” also saw slight increases while

other issues decreased in share of voice.

• Obama: The volume of conversations about

Obama was around 14,000 mentions. His

Sentiment Score decreased by 5.6 this week

to a score of -6.2. North Carolinians mostly

gave negative comments on his “trickle

down” economy.

• Romney: Romney led in volume with about


with a slightly better score of -5.9. Most of

the negative comments about Romney in

North Carolina were about his plan for the

middle class.


Obama -6.2 -0.6 5.6

Romney -5.9 -5.3 0.6

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 11.4% 15.5% 4.1%

Protecting the

middle class 11.0% 8.6% 2.4%

Jobs/Economy 38.2% 28.7% 9.5%


Obamacare 3.6% 5.3% 1.7%


9% 11%

11%

38%

15%

4% 12%




Foreign Policy

7% 9%

9%

40%

18%

5% 12%




Foreign Policy


100%

Florida

6



KEY FINDINGS:

In Florida, “Jobs/Economy” continued to be the

most discussed issue with 40.2% in share of

voice (+8.2%) this week. “Budget deficit”

stayed the second most discussed issue with

17.8% in share of voice (+18.8%).

• Obama: Obama had about 20,000

mentions in Florida this week. His

Sentiment Score stayed negative at -5.8

(+2.5). He was heavily blamed for the poor

economy and the budget deficit by

Floridians.



with a score of -3.2 (+1.5). He was,

however, criticized for his plan for the middle

class and his Medicare program.


Obama -5.8 -8.3 2.5

Romney -3.2 -4.7 1.5

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 9.3% 12.2% 2.9%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 40.2% 32.0% 8.2%


Obamacare 4.8% 6.3% 1.5%



100%

Ohio

7



KEY FINDINGS:

Ohioans talked mostly about “Jobs/Economy”,

which took 33.7% share of voice (+13.5%).

“Protecting the middle class” was the only other

issue that had an increase in share of voice

(+0.7%).

• Obama: The amount of conversations

about Obama was around 10,000. He led in

sentiment this week with a score of -7.6

(+2.8). Many Ohioans were frustrated that

Obama did not keep his promises of

lowering the national debt and of restoring

the economy.


13,000 mentions. But he lost in sentiment

with a score of -11.3 (down 3.8). He

received negative comments mostly on his

health care plan and his pro-life stance.


Obama -7.6 -10.4 2.8

Romney -11.3 -7.5 3.8

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 8.6% 10.2% 1.6%

Protecting the

middle class 10.6% 9.9% 0.7%

Jobs/Economy 33.7% 20.2% 13.5%


Obamacare 4.9% 6.3% 1.4%


9% 8%

11%

34%

22%

5% 11%




Foreign Policy


100%

Colorado

8



KEY FINDINGS:

In Colorado, the issue “Jobs/Economy” had the

biggest increase in share of voice (+12.8%) and

was the most discussed issue (42.3%) this

week. “Medicare/Social Security” had the

largest decrease in share of voice (-9.4%).

• Obama: Obama had about 5,000 mentions

in Colorado this week. His Sentiment Score

increased by 2.6 to a score of -7.3. He was

mostly blamed for the poor result of his

economic plan.


6,000 mentions. He led in sentiment as well

with a score of -2.2 (up 0.6). He received

many negative comments on the fact that he

had his company outsource in China. Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change

Obama -7.3 -9.9 2.6

Romney -2.2 -2.8 0.6

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 17.7% 27.1% 9.4%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 42.3% 29.5% 12.8%


Obamacare 3.4% 4.2% 0.8%


8%

18%

9% 42%

12% 3% 8%




Foreign Policy


100%

New Hampshire

9



KEY FINDINGS:

In New Hampshire, the issue “Jobs/Economy”

saw a boost of 10.5% in share of voice and

remained the most discussed issue.

“Medicare/Social Security” lost 6.1% in share of

voice.

• Obama: Obama had about 1,000 mentions

in New Hampshire this week. His Sentiment

Score plummeted by 16.3 to a negative

score of -9.8. Most of the negative

comments about Obama in New Hampshire

focused on the issue “Jobs/Economy”.



with a score of -1.1 (+6.8). He was criticized

by the majority of people in New Hampshire

on his plan for the middle class, but some

said they would vote for him since they

believed he would be the one to improve the

economy.


Obama -9.8 6.5 16.3

Romney -1.1 -7.9 6.8

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 13.8% 19.9% 6.1%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 48.9% 38.4% 10.5%


Obamacare 2.6% 3.1% 0.5%


5% 14%

6%

49%

17%

3% 6%




Foreign Policy


100%

Nevada

10



KEY FINDINGS:

“Budget deficit” was no longer the most

discussed issue in Nevada this week after only

experiencing a 5.0% increase in share of voice.

“Jobs/Economy” had a boost of 14.8% in share

of voice and became the hottest issue.

• Obama: The volume of conversations about

Obama was around 3,000. His Sentiment

Score increased by 4.5 to a score of -2.2.

He received negative comments for his

failure with the economy.

• Romney: Romney led in volume this week

with over 4,000 mentions. He also led in

sentiment with a score of -1.9 after having a

boost of 9.1. Romney won some Nevadans’

favors on his economic plan, but lost many

others on his plan for the middle class.


Obama -2.2 -6.7 4.5

Romney -1.9 -11.0 9.1

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 8.8% 12.6% 3.8%

Protecting the


Jobs/Economy 33.3% 18.5% 14.8%


Obamacare 3.3% 3.9% 0.6%


9% 9%

9%

33%

23%

3% 14%




Foreign Policy

Candidate Sentiment Score* by State

11

State Obama Romney

Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change

Wisconsin -0.9 -6.8 5.9 -2.7 -5.7 3.0

Virginia -7.5 -7.6 0.1 -1.7 -9.4 7.7

North Carolina -6.2 -0.6 5.6 -5.9 -5.3 0.6

Florida -5.8 -8.3 2.5 -3.2 -4.7 1.5

Ohio -7.6 -10.4 2.8 -11.3 -7.5 3.8

Colorado -7.3 -9.9 2.6 -2.2 -2.8 0.6

New Hampshire -9.8 6.5 16.3 -1.1 -7.9 6.8

Nevada -2.2 -6.7 4.5 -1.9 -11.0 9.1

• Obama had his Sentiment Score increase in most of states, but had no positive scores. The exceptions

were North Carolina and New Hampshire, where his scores decreased. He only led in sentiment in

Wisconsin and Ohio.

• Romney’s Sentiment Score decreased only in North Carolina and Ohio, but he too had no positive scores.

*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%

Share of Voice for Key Issues by State

12

State Abortion/

Choice

Medicare/

Social

Security

Protecting

the middle

class

Jobs/

Economy

Budget

deficit Obamacare

Foreign

Policy

Wisconsin 5.9% 7.9% 14.0% 48.3% 12.5% 2.3% 9.1%

Virginia 7.9% 8.7% 7.3% 45.2% 16.1% 3.0% 11.8%

North

Carolina 8.6% 11.4% 11.0% 38.2% 14.7% 3.6% 12.5%

Florida 6.9% 9.3% 9.0% 40.2% 17.8% 4.8% 12.0%

Ohio 9.5% 8.6% 10.6% 33.7% 21.9% 4.9% 10.8%

Colorado 7.6% 17.7% 8.6% 42.3% 12.6% 3.4% 7.8%

New

Hampshire 5.1% 13.8% 6.0% 48.9% 17.2% 2.6% 6.4%

Nevada 8.8% 8.8% 9.1% 33.3% 22.7% 3.3% 14.0%

• “Jobs/Economy” was the most popular issue in all eight states this week. “Budget deficit” and “Foreign

Policy” were most popular in Nevada, and “Medicare/Social Security” was most popular in Colorado.

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Week 6: Presidential Race Report

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