1. Photo Courtesy Syncrude Canada Ltd.Oil Sands Operations Labour Demand Outlookto 2023October 30, 2014Funded by the Government of Canada 2. Facilitatorwww.careersinoilandgas.com2Caileigh Rhind: Communications AdvisorPresentersClaudine Vidallo, PMP: Labour Market Information (LMI) Project ManagerEmma Monaghan: Labour Market Analyst 3. Table of Contents (Agenda) Labour Market Information (LMI) Products and Services Oil Sands Operations Outlook to 2023: Key Findings Scope and Methodology Current Workforce Employment and Hiring Outlooks Additional Projections and Analysiso Hiring Outlook by Operations Typeo Occupations with the Greatest Labour Demand/Supply Riskso Other Hiring Driverso Consolidated Construction, Maintenance and Operations Labour Demand Outlook Workforce Strategies Workforce Challenges Meeting Future Workforce Demandswww.careersinoilandgas.com3 4. Our LMI ExpertiseWe produce the following LMI products:Labour Market Outlooks: Employment and hiring projections for total industry andby core occupation, key province and sub-sector. Supply projections and gap analysisfor total industry and by core occupation help identify risks and opportunities. Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canadas Oil and Gas Industry Oil Sands Construction, Maintenance and Operations Labour Demand Outlook to2023HR Trends and Insights: Intelligence on current and short-term labour marketconditions and HR trends. Workforce Conditions in Canadas Bakken Oil Play Aboriginal Employment in Saskatchewans Oil and Gas Industry Exploring Apprenticeship Completions of Skilled Trades in the Upstream Oil andGas Industrywww.careersinoilandgas.com4 5. PollWhat other types of Labour Market Information should we produce that would be of most value to you?a. Labour market news feedb. Regional labour market informationc. Economic and labour market indicators (Employment data, unemployment rates, etc.)d. Detailed labour supply studiese. Others but not listed above (Compensation surveys, etc.)www.careersinoilandgas.com5 6. Oil Sands Operations Labour Demand Outlook to 2023www.careersinoilandgas.com6 7. Scope of Oil Sands Operations Labour Demand OutlookOil sands operations workforce: Directly employed by companies involved in theextraction, production and upgrading ofbitumen Includes workers: located on-site in head and regional offices (e.g., in Calgary,Edmonton)*The worker must be fully supporting oil sands operationsin order to be counted in the sectors workforce numbers.www.careersinoilandgas.com7 8. Core Operations OccupationsOIL SANDS OPERATIONS OCCUPATIONS DETAILED IN THE REPORTwww.careersinoilandgas.com8Advertising, marketing and public relations professionals Millwrights and machinistsAutomotive servicers and technicians Non-destructive testers and inspection techniciansConstruction estimators and managers Petroleum, gas, and chemical process operatorsContractors and supervisors, trades and related occupations Power engineers and power systems operatorsCrane and heavy equipment operators Primary production managers and logistics co-ordinatorsDrafting technologists and techniciansPublic and environmental health and occupational health andsafety inspectorsElectrical power line and cable workers Purchasing agents and officersEngineers: chemical, civil, electrical and electronics, geological,mechanical, metallurgical and materials, mining, petroleum,industrial and manufacturing engineersPurchasing, inventory control workers and managersEngineering technologists and technicians: chemical, civil,industrial, instrumentation, mechanical, geological and mineralShippers and receiversEngineering, facility operation and maintenance managers Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installersGeoscientists and oceanographers Supervisors, mining and quarryingHeavy-duty equipment mechanicsSupervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordinationoccupationsIndustrial instrument technicians and mechanics Water and waste plant operatorsIndustrial and power system electricians WeldersLand survey technologists and technicians Other occupations 9. Business Trends Impacting Oil Sands Market diversification Pipeline projects Rail and trucking to transport product New federal rules and increased scrutiny on foreign investment Decreased investment levels and merger and acquisition activity in 2013 Renewed growth in 2014 Attraction, retention and development of workers Shortage of workers Changing demographics Pace of industry activitywww.careersinoilandgas.com9 10. Current Oil Sands Operations Workforce (2014)www.careersinoilandgas.com10TOP 10 OIL SANDS OPERATIONS OCCUPATIONSEMPLOYED IN 2014 (# OF JOBS)Total Oil Sands 26,550Power engineers and power systems operators(9241)4,715Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 3,305Facility operation and maintenance managers(0714)1,125Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 1,105Engineering managers (0211) 1,035Petroleum engineers (2145) 1,025Managers in natural resources production andfishing (0811)700Mechanical engineers (2132) 690Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics(2243)680Industrial electricians (7242) 66026,5505,2459,59011,710 11. Oil Sands Operations Employment Outlook to 2023Over the next decade, oil sands operations is projected to add 15,300 new jobs with employmentestimated at 41,900 workers by 2023.www.careersinoilandgas.com11E = Estimated; F = Forecasted 12. Occupations with GreatestJob Increases due toIndustry ActivityPower engineers and heavy equipmentoperators account for close to 30 per cent ofnew jobs created between 2014 and 2023.www.careersinoilandgas.com12TOP 10 OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS WITHGREATEST JOB INCREASES DUE TO INDUSTRYACTIVITY TO 2023Total Oil Sands Operations 15,330Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 2,895Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 1,470Petroleum engineers (2145) 825Engineering managers (0211) 660Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 555Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 495Managers in natural resources production and fishing(0811)465Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 405Mechanical engineers (2132) 375Geoscientists and oceanographers (2113) 325 13. Net Hiring Requirements forOil Sands Operations SectorNet hiring requirements = hiring due to industry expansion+ hiring due to age-related attrition.www.careersinoilandgas.com13TOP 10 OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS WITHGREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTSTO 2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)Total Oil Sands 21,710Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 4,130Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 2,070Petroleum engineers (2145) 1,050Engineering managers (0211) 980Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 880Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 735Managers in natural resources production and fishing(0811)685Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 550Mechanical engineers (2132) 505Industrial electricians (7242) 460Total oil sands operations hiring to support growth15,330Total hiring due to age-related attrition6,380Net hiring within oil sands operations to 202321,710 14. Net Hiring Requirements forIn Situ OperationsTotal in situ hiring to support growth10,610Total hiring due to age-related attrition3,340Net hiring within in situ operations to 202313,950www.careersinoilandgas.com14TOP 10 OIL SANDS IN SITU OCCUPATIONSWITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)Total In Situ 13,950Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 3,380Petroleum engineers (2145) 990Engineering managers (0211) 730Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 540Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 455Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 410Purchasing agents and officers (1225) 390Geological and mineral technologists and technicians (2212) 380Geoscientists and oceanographers (2113) 380Mechanical engineers (2132) 335 15. Net Hiring Requirements forMining OperationsTotal mining hiring to support growth4,290Total hiring due to age-related attrition1,990Net hiring within mining operations to 20236,280www.careersinoilandgas.com15TOP 10 OIL SANDS MINING OCCUPATIONS WITHGREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023(# OF JOB OPENINGS)Total Mining 6,280Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 2,050Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 515Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 345Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 315Petroleum, gas, and chemical process operator (9232) 215Industrial electricians (7242) 190Engineering managers (0211) 185Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (7311) 175Welders and related machine operators (7237) 145Mechanical engineers (2132) 125 16. Net Hiring Requirements forUpgrading OperationsTotal upgrading hiring to support growth430Total hiring due to age-related attrition1,050Net hiring within upgrading operations to 20231,480www.careersinoilandgas.com16TOP 10 OIL SANDS UPGRADINGOCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NETHIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 (# OF JOBOPENINGS)Total Upgrading 1,480Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 400Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 105Engineering managers (0211) 60Chemical engineers (2134) 55Industrial electricians (7242) 50Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 50Mechanical engineers (2132) 45Electrical and electronics engineers (2133) 45Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 45Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 40 17. Power EngineersThe greatest demand in the oil sands sector overthe next decade will be for power engineers.Assuming the same distribution of powerengineers in 2010 over the next decade, nethiring requirements for each power engineeringlevel in 2023 are as follows:www.careersinoilandgas.com17ESTIMATED NUMBER OF NEW POWER ENGINEERJOBS FOR OIL SANDS OPERATIONS TO 2023Class Number of Job OpeningsFirst 85Second 260Third 1,450Fourth 1,100Total 2,895 18. Managerial OccupationsRetirements amongst managers and supervisorswill lead to a loss of knowledge, experience andmentoring capacity and will have a negativeimpact on workforce development andproductivity.www.careersinoilandgas.com18MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGENET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations: 82%1 Purchasing managers (0113) 125%2Contractors and supervisors, machining, metalforming, shaping and erecting trades and relatedoccupations (7201)100%3Managers in natural resources production and fishing(0811)97%4 Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades (7301) 95%5 Engineering managers (0211) 94%6Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and schedulingco-ordination occupations (1215)91%7 Construction managers (0711) 91%8Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades andtelecommunications occupations (7202)88% 19. Supply Chain OccupationsNeeded for Expansion andProductionOil sands investment and accelerated growth aredriving demand for oil and gas services,materials, equipment manufacturing and rentals,contracted professional and technical servicesand the need for supply chain management,procurement and logistics occupations.www.careersinoilandgas.com19SUPPLY CHAIN OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGENET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations: 82%Purchasing managers (0113) 125%Purchasing agents and officers (1225) 118%Shippers and receivers (1521) 95%Purchasing and inventory control workers (1524) 94%Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordinationoccupations (1215)91% 20. Non-Retirement TurnoverStrong competition for workers and employee turnover will drive additional hiring within the sector.Assuming a 3% non-retirement turnover rate across the sector, hiring requirements will increase by 9,000over the next decade, which means 30,700 jobs may need to be filled between 2014 and 2023.www.careersinoilandgas.com20NON-RETIREMENTTURNOVER RATEHIRING DUE TONON-RETIREMENTTURNOVER TO 20230% 01% 2,9853% 8,9556% 17,915 21. Labour ProductivityThe Petroleum HR Councils labour demand model assumes that labour productivity grows at 1% per year.If 1% annual productivity growth is not achieved or the industry is indeed experiencing a loss of productivity,additional workers will be required.www.careersinoilandgas.com21LABOUR PRODUCTIVITYGROWTH RATENET HIRING REQUIREMENTSTO 20231% 21,7100% 27,075- 1% 33,190 22. Oil Sands Construction, Maintenance and OperationsThis table shows the overlapping occupations that are required for oil sands construction, maintenance andoperations.OCCUPATION (NOC)www.careersinoilandgas.com22BUILDFORCE(Aggregated Oil SandsConstruction)OILMAP(On-site Oil SandsConstruction &Maintenance)PETROLEUMHR COUNCIL(Oil Sands Operations)Construction millwrights and industrialmechanics (7311) Crane operators (7371) Heavy equipment operators (except crane)(7521) Industrial electricians (7242) Industrial instrument technicians andmechanics (2243) Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler systeminstallers (7252) Welders and related machine operators (7237) 23. Oil Sands Construction and Operations Workforce Projections to 2023www.careersinoilandgas.com23E = Estimated; F = Forecasted 24. PollWhat do you use Labour Market Information for?a. Develop and implement workforce strategies to build a sustainable oil and gas workforceb. Make effective decisions on labour, immigration, education and training policies and programsc. Align education and training programs with industrys occupational requirementsd. Make career or job recommendationse. Others not listed above (please specify in chat box)www.careersinoilandgas.com24 25. Workforce Strategieswww.careersinoilandgas.com25 26. Workforce Challenges for Oil Sands Operations Oil sands expansion 15,300 new jobs are required to support growth over the next decade Aging workforce 6,400 workers will be eligible for retirement over the next decade Difficulties recruiting to remote locations Higher costs of living Rotational work arrangements Shortages for certain occupations Occupations requiring specialized training Occupations coveted by other industrieswww.careersinoilandgas.com26 27. Meeting Future Workforce Demands Attracting and retaining under-represented workers Alternate sources of labour supply Training and development Oil Sands Learning Network Investing in talent management Temporary Foreign Workers (TFW) Increase apprenticeship completion for trades occupationswww.careersinoilandgas.com27 28. Exploring Apprenticeship Completions of Skilled TradesApprenticeships are a viable solution to alleviate labour shortages but fewer apprentices arecompleting their trainingRegistered Apprentices, New Registrations and Apprentice Completions19912011, Apprenticeship program Major Oil Producing Provinceswww.careersinoilandgas.com28registrations are increasing butcompletions have not grownproportionally. 29. Factors Affecting Apprenticeship CompletionsInterrelated factors such as economic downturns and employer-specific challenges affectapprenticeship completion rates.LABOUR MARKET FACTORS EMPLOYER CHALLENGES APPRENTICE CONCERNSEconomic downturns, subsequent lay-offswww.careersinoilandgas.com29and workers transition to morestable occupationsUnable to provide apprentices with thevariety of experience required acrossthe scope of practice for the trade,preventing the apprentice fromprogressingRemote worksites and challengingworking conditionsHigh tuition and training costsPoor communication between mentorsand apprenticesInadequate employer onboarding due torapid hiring requirementsLost wages during training programsLimited ability to provide time off toattend training programsAdded level of responsibility onbecoming a journeyperson 30. Strategies to Increase Apprenticeship CompletionsSpecific recommendations include: Government and post-secondary institutions continue to increase seats in training programs, andwww.careersinoilandgas.com30provide tax incentives and grants Companies encourage contractors to employ apprentices and foster mentorship programs andprovide support to apprentices progressing through training Employers implement policies and practices that support workers through their apprenticeshiptraining Apprentices and employers be knowledgeable about transferrable skills from other industries, suchas construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, utilities, agriculture and forestry tothe oil and gas industry. 31. Questions?www.careersinoilandgas.com31 32. Upcoming Product Releaseswww.careersinoilandgas.com32PRODUCT TARGET RELEASEDiversity in Canadas Oil and Gas Industry November 2014HR Trends and Insights Survey Results (Fall 2014 Edition) November 2014Situational Analysis: Occupational Shifts and Shortages inCanadas Oil and Gas IndustryFebruary 2015Rotational Workforce in Albertas Oil and Gas Industry March 2015Labour Market Outlook for Canadas Oil and Gas Industry Spring/Summer 2015 33. For More Informationwww.careersinoilandgas.comTo be added to our eNewsletter, email info@careersinoilandgas.comFind us on social media:@PetroHRCouncil@CareersInOandGfacebook.com/careersinoilandgas slideshare.net/PetroHRCouncilFunded by the Government of Canada