2014 10-21 oil sands operations labour demand outlook to 2023

Photo Courtesy Syncrude Canada Ltd.

Oil Sands Operations Labour Demand Outlook to 2023October 21, 2014

Funded by the Government of Canada

www.careersinoilandgas.com

Facilitator

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Caileigh Rhind:

• Communications Advisor

Presenters

Claudine Vidallo, PMP:

• Labour Market Information (LMI) Project Manager

Emma Monaghan:

• Labour Market Analyst


Table of Contents (Agenda)

• Labour Market Information (LMI) Products and Services

• Oil Sands Operations Outlook to 2023: Key Findings

– Scope and Methodology

– Current Workforce

– Employment and Hiring Outlooks

– Additional Projections and Analysis

o Hiring Outlook by Operations Type

o Occupations with the Greatest Labour Demand/Supply Risks

o Other Hiring Drivers

o Consolidated Construction, Maintenance and Operations Labour Demand Outlook

• Workforce Strategies

– Workforce Challenges

– Meeting Future Workforce Demands

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Our LMI Expertise

Labour Market Outlooks: Employment and hiring projections for total industry and by core occupation, key province and sub-sector. Supply projections and gap analysis for total industry and by core occupation help understand risks and opportunities.

• Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry

• Oil Sands Construction, Maintenance and Operations Labour Demand Outlook to 2023

HR Trends and Insights: Intelligence on current and short-term labour market conditions and HR trends.

• Exploring Apprenticeship Completions of Skilled Trades in the Upstream Oil and Gas Industry

• Aboriginal Employment in Saskatchewan’s Oil and Gas Industry

• Workforce Conditions in Canada’s Bakken Oil Play

We produce the following LMI products:

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Poll

What other types of Labour Market Information should we produce that would be of most value to you?

a. Labour market news feed

b. Regional labour market information

c. Economic and labour market indicators (Employment data, unemployment rates, etc.)

d. Detailed labour supply studies

e. Others but not listed above (Compensation surveys, etc.)

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Oil Sands Operations Labour Demand Outlook to 2023

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Scope of Oil Sands Operations Labour Demand Outlook

Oil sands operations workforce:

• Directly employed by companies involved in the extraction, production and upgrading of bitumen

• Includes workers:

– located on-site

– in head and regional offices (e.g., in Calgary, Edmonton)

*The worker must be fully supporting oil sands operations in order to be counted in the sector’s workforce numbers.

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Core Operations Occupations

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OIL SANDS OPERATIONS OCCUPATIONS DETAILED IN THE REPORT

Advertising, marketing and public relations professionals Millwrights and machinists

Automotive servicers and technicians Non-destructive testers and inspection techniciansConstruction estimators and managers Petroleum, gas, and chemical process operators

Contractors and supervisors, trades and related occupations Power engineers and power systems operators

Crane and heavy equipment operators Primary production managers and logistics co-ordinators

Drafting technologists and technicians Public and environmental health and occupational health and safety inspectors

Electrical power line and cable workers Purchasing agents and officers

Engineers: chemical, civil, electrical and electronics, geological, mechanical, metallurgical and materials, mining, petroleum, industrial and manufacturing engineers

Purchasing, inventory control workers and managers

Engineering technologists and technicians: chemical, civil, industrial, instrumentation, mechanical, geological and mineral Shippers and receivers

Engineering, facility operation and maintenance managers Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers

Geoscientists and oceanographers Supervisors, mining and quarrying

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations

Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics Water and waste plant operators

Industrial and power system electricians Welders

Land survey technologists and technicians Other occupations


Business Trends Impacting Oil Sands

• Market diversification

– Pipeline projects

– Rail and trucking to transport product

• New federal rules

– Increased scrutiny on foreign investment

– Merger and acquisition activity

• Attraction, retention and development of workers

– Shortage of workers

– Changing demographics

– Pace of industry activity

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Current Oil Sands Operations Workforce (2014)

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TOP 10 OIL SANDS OPERATIONS OCCUPATIONS EMPLOYED IN 2014 (# OF JOBS)

Total Oil Sands 26,549

Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 4,716

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 3,303

Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 1,127

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 1,106

Engineering managers (0211) 1,037

Petroleum engineers (2145) 1,024

Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 699

Mechanical engineers (2132) 688

Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 679

Industrial electricians (7242) 658


Oil Sands Operations Employment Outlook to 2023

Over the next decade, oil sands operations is projected to add 15,300 new jobs – with employment estimated at 41,900 workers by 2023.

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E = Estimated; F = Forecasted


Occupations with Greatest Job Increases due to Industry Activity

Power engineers and heavy equipment operators account for close to 30 per cent of new jobs created between 2014 and 2023.

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TOP 10 OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST JOB INCREASES DUE TO INDUSTRY ACTIVITY TO 2023

Total Oil Sands Operations 15,330



Petroleum engineers (2145) 825

Engineering managers (0211) 660

Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 555

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 495




Geoscientists and oceanographers (2113) 325


Net Hiring Requirements for Oil Sands Operations Sector

Net hiring requirements = hiring due to industry expansion + hiring due to age-related attrition.

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TOP 10 OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)

Total Oil Sands 21,710



Petroleum engineers (2145) 1,050








Total oil sands operations hiring to support growth

15,330

Total hiring due to age-related attrition

6,380

Net hiring within in situ operations to 2023

21,710


Net Hiring Requirements for In Situ Operations

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Total in situ hiring to support growth

10,610


3,340

Net hiring within in situ operations to 2023

13,950

TOP 10 OIL SANDS IN SITU OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)

Total In Situ 13,950


Petroleum engineers (2145) 990





Purchasing agents and officers (1225) 390

Geological and mineral technologists and technicians (2212) 380

Geoscientists and oceanographers (2113) 380



Net Hiring Requirements for Mining Operations

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Total mining hiring to support growth

4,290


1,990

Net hiring within mining operations to 2023

6,280

TOP 10 OIL SANDS MINING OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)

Total Mining 6,280



Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 345


Petroleum, gas, and chemical process operator (9232) 215



Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (7311) 175

Welders and related machine operators (7237) 145



Net Hiring Requirements for Upgrading Operations

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Total upgrading hiring to support growth

430


1,050

Net hiring within upgrading operations to 2023

1,480

TOP 10 OIL SANDS UPGRADING OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)

Total Upgrading 1,480

Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 400



Chemical engineers (2134) 55




Electrical and electronics engineers (2133) 45




Power Engineers

The greatest demand in the oil sands sector over the next decade will be for power engineers. Assuming the same distribution of power engineers in 2010 over the next decade, net hiring requirements for each power engineering level in 2023 are as follows:

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ESTIMATED OIL SANDS OPERATIONS NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 FOR POWER ENGINEERS

Class Number of Job Openings

First 85

Second 260

Third 1,450

Fourth 1,100

Total 2,895


Managerial Occupations

Retirements amongst managers and supervisors will lead to a loss of knowledge, experience and mentoring capacity and will have a negative impact on workforce development and productivity.

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MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations (82%)

1 Purchasing managers (0113) 125%

2Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations (7201)

100%

3 Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 97%

4 Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades (7301) 95%

5 Engineering managers (0211) 94%

6 Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations (1215) 91%

7 Construction managers (0711) 91%

8 Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations (7202) 88%


Supply Chain Occupations Needed for Expansion and Production

Oil sands investment and accelerated growth are driving demand for oil and gas services, materials, equipment manufacturing and rentals, contracted professional and technical services and the need for supply chain management, procurement and logistics occupations.

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SUPPLY CHAIN OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023

Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations (82%)

Purchasing managers (0113) 125%

Purchasing agents and officers (1225) 118%

Shippers and receivers (1521) 95%

Purchasing and inventory control workers (1524) 94%

Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations (1215) 91%


Non-Retirement Turnover

Strong competition for workers and employee turnover will drive additional hiring within the sector. Assuming a 3% non-retirement turnover rate across the industry, hiring requirements will increase to 30,665 over the next decade.

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NON-RETIREMENT TURNOVER RATE

HIRING DUE TO NON-RETIREMENT

TURNOVER TO 2023

0% 0

1% 2,985

3% 8,955

6% 17,915


Labour Productivity

The Petroleum HR Council’s labour demand model assumes that labour productivity grows at one per cent per year. If one per cent productivity growth is not achieved or the industry is indeed experiencing a loss of productivity, additional workers will be required.

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LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATE

NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023

1% 21,710

0% 27,075

- 1% 33,190


Oil Sands Construction, Maintenance and Operations

This table shows the overlapping occupations that are required for oil sands construction, maintenance and operations.

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OCCUPATION (NOC)BUILDFORCE

(Aggregated Oil Sands Construction)

OILMAP(On-site Oil Sands

Construction & Maintenance)

PETROLEUM HR COUNCIL

(Oil Sands Operations)

Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (7311) • • •Crane operators (7371) • • •Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) • • •Industrial electricians (7242) • • •Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) • • •Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers (7252) • • •Welders and related machine operators (7237) • • •


Oil Sands Construction and Operations Workforce Projections to 2023

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E = Estimated; F = Forecasted


Poll

What do you use Labour Market Information for?

a. Develop and implement workforce strategies to build a sustainable oil and gas workforce

b. Make effective decisions on labour, immigration, education and training policies and programs

c. Align education and training programs with industry’s occupational requirements

d. Make career or job recommendations

e. Others not listed above (please specify in chat box)

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Workforce Strategies

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Workforce Challenges for Oil Sands Operations

• Oil sands expansion

– 15,330 new jobs are required over the next decade

• Shortages for certain occupations

– Occupations requiring specialized training

– Occupations coveted by other industries

• Aging workforce

– 6,380 workers will be eligible for retirement over the next decade

• Difficulties recruiting to remote locations

– Higher costs of living

– Rotational work arrangements

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Meeting Future Workforce Demands

• Attracting and retaining under-represented workers

• Alternate sources of labour supply

• Training and development

– Oil Sands Learning Network

– Investing in talent management

– Temporary Foreign Workers (TFW)

– Increase apprenticeship completion for trades occupations

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Exploring Apprenticeship Completions of Skilled Trades

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Apprenticeships are a viable solution to alleviate labour shortages but fewer apprentices are completing their training

Registered Apprentices, New Registrations and Apprentice Completions 1991–2011, Major Oil Producing Provinces • Apprenticeship program

registrations are increasing but completions have not grown proportionally.


Factors Affecting Apprenticeship Completions

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Interrelated factors such as economic downturns and employer-specific challenges affect apprenticeship completion rates.

LABOUR MARKET FACTORS EMPLOYER CHALLENGES APPRENTICE CONCERNS

Economic downturns, subsequent lay-offs and workers transition to more stable occupations

Unable to provide apprentices with the variety of experience required across the scope of practice for the trade, preventing the apprentice from progressing

Remote worksites and challenging working conditions

High tuition and training costs Poor communication between mentors and apprentices

Inadequate employer onboarding due to rapid hiring requirements

Lost wages during training programs Limited ability to provide time off to attend training programs

Added level of responsibility on becoming a journeyperson


Strategies to Increase Apprenticeship Completions

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Specific recommendations include:

• Government and post-secondary institutions continue to increase seats in training programs, and provide tax incentives and grants

• Companies encourage contractors to employ apprentices and foster mentorship programs and

provide support to apprentices progressing through training • Employers implement policies and practices that support workers through their apprenticeship

training

• Apprentices and employers be knowledgeable about transferrable skills from other industries, such as construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, utilities, agriculture and forestry to the oil and gas industry.


Questions?

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Upcoming Product Releases

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PRODUCT TARGET RELEASE

Diversity in Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry November 2014

HR Trends and Insights Survey Results (Fall 2014 Edition) November 2014

Situational Analysis: Occupational Shifts and Shortages in Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry

February 2015

Rotational Workforce in Alberta’s Oil and Gas Industry March 2015

Labour Market Projections for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry

Spring/Summer 2015


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For More Information

@PetroHRCouncil@CareersInOandG

facebook.com/careersinoilandgas slideshare.net/PetroHRCouncil

Funded by the Government of Canada

http://www.facebook.com/careersinoilandgas

http://www.slideshare.net/PetroHRCouncil

2014 10-21 oil sands operations labour demand outlook to 2023

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