WaterFALL: Watershed Flow and ALLocation Model Resources/files/eflows... · 2018. 6. 19. · (355)...
Transcript of WaterFALL: Watershed Flow and ALLocation Model Resources/files/eflows... · 2018. 6. 19. · (355)...
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WaterFALL: Watershed Flow and ALLocation ModelAugust 16, 2011
Michele Cutrofello & Bob Dykes
Development Team: Jay Rineer, Fekadu Moreda, Brandon Bergenroth
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Oh No, Not Another Model!
Characterization of unaltered flow conditions is a key
step in the ELOHA process
Need to characterize unaltered flows at multiple
geographic scales
River/stream system
Defined stream/river reach
Defined high value habitats or benthic monitoring sites
Use of stream gage data to infer unaltered flow
conditions has several inherent limitations
Time period over which un-gaged data are available.
Spatial distribution of gages
Hydrologic complexity makes data extrapolation difficult
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WaterFALL™ Design Objectives
1. Flexible hydrologic modeling platform to support
multiple applications:
Water basin allocation planning, analysis and permitting support
Climate change vulnerability/adaptation assessment
Ecological flow regime development
2. Provide “on demand” results
Facilitate “what if?” analysis
3. Scalable
4. Portable
5. Incorporate state-of-the-art information technology
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GWLF
WaterFALL™: Watershed Flow and ALLocation Model
GWLF Input Data Are
Pre-indexed to Each
NHDPlus Catchment:
Precipitation
Temperature
Land cover
Soils
Topography
Hydrologic parameters
Other
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Live Demonstration of Web Interface
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Model Inputs & Framework
Streamlined approach for model parameterization and application
Data
NHDPlus catchment characteristics (1:100,000 scale)
SSURGO soils data
NLCD land use data
NCDC archive and PRISM-derived daily precipitation and temperature data
NOAA grid based hydrologic parameters (e.g., recession coefficients)
Generated Look Up Tables (LUT) for related data elements (e.g., Curve
Number, ET cover factor, etc.)
Model Enhancements
Application of an RTI-designed lag-routing method from one catchment to
another allows individual GWLF application at each small catchment to link
together to form a pseudo-distributed watershed model
Allow for climate change scenarios
Allow for land use change scenarios
Allow users to assess changes in growing season and channel
characteristics
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Data Processing: Overlay and Aggregation
Catchment
polygons
(jagged orange
lines) and their
NLCD 2001
values (points)
intersected
with SSURGO
(smooth purple
lines)
NLCD2001 MUKEY Area (m2)
Weighting
Factor
SSURGO
KFFACT
1723038 2700 0.167 0.047
1723108 13500 0.833 0.233
Total: 16200 Average: 0.28
1723034 900 0.1 0.024
1723108 8100 0.9 0.252
Total: 9000 Average: 0.28
1723034 17100 0.500 0.121
1723038 9000 0.263 0.074
1723108 8100 0.237 0.066
Total: 34200 Average: 0.26
1723034 900 0.333 0.081
1723108 1800 0.667 0.187
Total: 2700 Average: 0.27
42
82
90
95
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NHDPlus
Catchments
in the Upper
Neuse River
HUC8
03020201
Using a HUC8-averaged data set: 7.48 mm (or 7480 mm *1000)
Using Durham NCDC COOP Station: 5.08 mm (or 5080 mm *1000)
4km-Gridded Precipitation on 11/11/02
Thiessen
Polygon
Boundaries
Defining
COOP
Station
Coverage
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Live Demonstration of Web Interface
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Sample Exported Results from WaterFALL™
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Calibration Parameters
Parameters Description Source & Estimation
Method
Calibration Method
Available Soil
water Capacity
This parameter triggers the
start of percolation
Estimated by National
Weather Service
compilation of parameters
for Sacramento Soil
Moisture Accounting
Model; Based on
SSURGO and NLCD data
CURRENT: Manual
adjustment of NWS values
over study region using
multiplication factors.
FUTURE: Automated
calibration of individual
catchment values or
regional values using
software (PEST).
Recession
Coefficient
Base flow coefficient
controls the rate of ground
water flow from the
saturated storage
Seepage
Coefficient
Seepage parameter
controls the rate of seepage
to the deep storage.
Best professional judgment
estimate
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Neuse River Calibration
Calibration at 4 gages within larger Neuse Watershed
Used pre-regulated period of 1972-1976 (before Falls
Lake began filling in Upper Neuse)
Outlet
COMID(# catchments)
USGS
GageStation Name Regulations of flows Lat Long
Drainage
Area (mi2)
8786017(2438)
02087500
Neuse River
near Clayton,
NC
Regulated by Falls
Reservoir35.647 -78.405 1150
8782653(1594)
02087183Neuse River
Near Falls, NC
Flow is regulated by
Falls Dam35.940 -78.581 771
8778363(355)
02085500Flat River at
Bahama, NC
Minor regulation at low
flow36.183 -78.879 149
8778383(213)
02085070Eno River near
Durham, NC
Some regulation
during periods of low
flow caused by mill
600 ft upstream
36.072 -78.908 141
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Multi-basin Calibration & Results
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Ja
n
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Se
p
No
v
Ja
n
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Se
p
No
v
Ja
n
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Se
p
No
v
Ja
n
Mar
Ma
y
Ju
l
Se
p
No
v
1973 1974 1975 1976
Flo
w (
cfs
)
Calibration Results for Neuse River at Clayton, NC
USGS Monthly Average
WaterFALL Monthly Average
Overall Simulation Volume Error: 5%
Nash-Sutcliffe (daily flows): 0.53
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Providing a Hydrologic Foundation for
Ecological Flow Determination
Desired foundation components of the ELOHA
framework:
Regional database
Daily or monthly streamflow for
Baseline/Unaltered
Current
Future
Common time period of 20 years or more
Enough spatial detail to resolve reaches with different
characteristics and small tributaries
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Hydrology Detail – The Haw River Example
Flow: 1556 cfs
Velocity: 0.9 ft/s
Depth: 9.6 ft
Flow: 672 cfs
Velocity: 0.7 ft/s
Depth: 7.1 ft
Flow: 570 cfs
Velocity: 0.5 ft/s
Depth: 10.0 ft
Flow: 179 cfs
Velocity: 0.3 ft/s
Depth: 7.5 ft
On February 7th, 2003:
Flow: 597 cfs
Velocity: 0.3 ft/s
Depth: 15.0 ft
Flow: 2953 cfs
Velocity: 0.4 ft/s
Depth: 28.9 ft
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Ecological Detail – Benthos Samples in the Upper Neuse
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NC Benthos Monitoring Locations since 1978
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Hydrologic Analysis for Ecological Flows
Employ TNC’s Index of Hydrologic Alteration Software
Compare modeled, natural flow to monitored, altered flows
Numerous comparison points:
1-, 3-, 7-day minimum/maximum flow
Date of minimum/maximum flow
Low/high pulse count, duration, and thresholds
WaterFALL allows specification of these comparison
points (i.e., ecological monitoring locations) at any and
all reaches within the stream
Exported time series from WaterFALL can easily be
imported into IHA Software or analyzed on its own
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Hydrologic Foundation Example: Haw River
Regulation by Stony Creek
Reservoir and withdrawals and
discharges for human use and
consumption
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Hydrologic Foundation Example: Haw River
7-day
Minimum
Flow (cfs)
78.6
62.6
High Flow
Duration/
Frequency
(days)
5.25 /
9.5
2.5 /
19.5
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Hydrologic Foundation Example 2: Eno River
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French Broad River: Unaltered, Reference Site
During the 2007 drought, precipitation was 67%
of the long-term average and temperature
increase was 1.1°F.
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Hydrologic Alteration Due to Climate Change
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Final Summary
WaterFALL provides
Easy navigation and definition of watershed of interest at
NHDPlus scale (1:100,000)
Simulation throughout North Carolina
Daily streamflow, velocity, and depth estimates for all NHDPlus
catchments
Natural streamflow estimates with opportunity to add human
influences on system to estimate altered flows
Climate and land use change scenario analysis
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Discussion & Questions?
Please visit https://waterfall.rti.org for up to date
information on the model and its applications