Water Tectonics and the Roots of Utah's Earthquakes
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Transcript of Water Tectonics and the Roots of Utah's Earthquakes
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Water Tectonics andthe Roots of Utah’s
Earthquakes
Tony Lowry
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Weather Forecasting:
TemperaturePressure
Water
Flow of Energy
& Matter
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Seismic Forecasting?
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Seismic Forecasting?
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Seismic Forecasting?
Mw 6.9 Borah Peak earthquake
? ? ?
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Seismic Forecasting?
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Inte
rmou
ntai
nS
eism
ic B
elt
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Crust(Feldspar,Quartz)
Mantle(Olivine,Pyroxene)
Cold (~0°C)
Hot (~1350°C)
Brittle Stre
ngth
Crustal Flow Strength
Mantle Flow Strength
Earthquakes here!
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Active TA Seismic
Past TA Seismic
Permanent Seismic
Permanent GPS
Electrical (MT)
EarthScope
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Higher H2O
Property Higher Temp.
Seismic Velocity
Electrical
Conductivity
MassDensity
Flow
Strength
Partial Melt
Hot?Wet?
Slow
High
Cold?Dry?
Fast
Low
!
!
These arethe oneswe need formodeling.
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From Becker, Lowry, et al., Nature, 2015
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Earthquake Distribution Gravitational Potential Energy Crustal Thickness
Lithosphere Strength Seismic Lithosphere Depth Dynamic Topography
Becker, Lowry, et al., Nature, 2015
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Wait… Dynamic topography? What is that?
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Dynamic Topography
Schmandt & Lin, GRL, 2014 Becker, Lowry, et al., Nature, 2015
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Then serendipity strikes…
Bec
ker,
Low
ry, e
t al.,
Nat
ure,
201
5
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Random at
95 %confidence
Bec
ker,
Low
ry, e
t al.,
Nat
ure,
201
5
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Bec
ker,
Low
ry, e
t al.,
Nat
ure,
201
5
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And what does it mean for earthquakes?Our model neglected the lithosphere:
But in reality “dynamic elevation rate” is better thought of as a“lithospheric loading rate”
that adds to membrane stress and stretching of thelithosphere.
High viscosity fluid
Low viscosity fluid
Visco-elasto-plastic lithosphere
“Uplift”
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So where does water come into this?
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“Dry” mantle peridotite “Hydrous” mantle serpentinite
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How would water get there?
Kanda et al., in prep, 2015
Wannamaker et al., Nature, 2009
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Schmandt & Lin, GRL, 2014
Higher H2O
Property Higher Temp.
Seismic Velocity
Electrical
Conductivity
MassDensity
Flow
Strength
Partial Melt
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Te and StrengthBritt
le Stre
ngth
Flow
Crust
Mantle
zn
f
YSE
Elastic
Inviscid
zn
f
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Flow Strength…
depends on:• Temperature• Rock Type (pyroxene > olivine > feldspar > quartz)
• Water Content.
Crust
Mantle
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Flow Strength…
depends mostly on:
• Rock Type (crust thickness)• Temperature
• Water Content
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Flow Strength…
depends mostly on:
• Rock Type (Qtz or Fsp?)• Temperature
• Water Content
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Flow Strength…
depends mostly on:
• Rock Type
• Temperature
• Water Content
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Flow Strength…
depends mostly on:
• Rock Type
• Temperature
• Water Content
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Wet (saturated) end-member Dry end-member
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Bec
ker,
Low
ry, e
t al.,
Nat
ure,
201
5
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Thank You
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Inte
rmou
ntai
n S
eism
ic B
elt
Electrical Conductivity Seismic Velocity
Electrical conductivity structure is dominantly water variation below ~200 km depth…
But difficult to interpret at shallower depths, even when coupled with seismic imaging
Schmandt & Lin, GRL, 2014
Meq
bel e
t al.,
EP
SL,
201
4