Water Quality H. Behrendt, M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl GLOWA-Elbe...
Transcript of Water Quality H. Behrendt, M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl GLOWA-Elbe...
Water Quality
H. Behrendt, M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl
GLOWA-ElbeGLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne
Linkages of quantification tools for the estimation of costs – ecological state relationships in the surface
waters of the Elbe catchment
Tasks of the Working Package
Results of Phase I
Concept of Phase II
Conclusions
Water Quality
VH I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA)
Regional actors, decision bodies
Frame of Development
VH II: Regionalisation of Global Change
Glo
bal
Ch
ang
eM
ana
gem
ent
leve
l
VH V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis
Management-options
Impact-analysis
Evaluation
VH IV: Conflict field
Surface Water Quality
Nutrient entry
Cost-efficiency analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socioeconomic Indicators
VH III: Conflict field
Surface Water Availability
Run off regulation
Multi-criteria analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socioeconomic Indicators
Project advisory board
Water Quality
Tasks
Development of a system of models,
for scenario calcula-tions of possible changes of nutrient concentrations and ecological state in the Elbe:
• due to climate changes and
Precipitation Temperature
• socio-economic development and
RAUMIS
Connections of people
WWTP technologies
• environmental targets (e.g.WFD)
Ecological state of the water bodies of the Elbe and coastal zone
Water Quality
Results phase I:
Establishment of a harmonized database for the modeling of nutrient emissions into the total Elbe catchment
Begin of cooperation with Czech institutions (e.g. boundaries of Czech subcatchments, unified soil loss map, tile drained areas, statistical data)
Water Quality
Estimation of the nutrient emissions into the total Elbe catchment:
• Applicability of the model for areas outside Germany
• Estimation of nutrient emissions for 184 subcatchments in the Elbe
• Model calculations for different time periods in the past
Long term changes of P-concentrations at Zollenspieker
Diffuse P emissionsin the Elbe Basin
Water Quality
Changes of nutrient emissions due to climate
• Use of precipitation and discharges of WATERGAP 4 for two different climate models
• Depending on the used climate model the N emissions can increase or decrease up to 15%
• Scenario calculations on regional changes of discharge and nitrogen emissions for 2025
Water Quality
Changes of nutrient emissions due to changes of global climate and regional human activities
The socio-economic changes in the past influenced strongly the nitrogen emissions
The changes due to climate changes are probably low
Water Quality
Interactions between agricultural activities and nitrogen emissions
Only the introduction of a strong N-tax leads to a substantial reduction of N-emissions from agricultural areas.
The maximum potential for the reduction of N-emissions is about 1/3 compared to 1999
Water Quality
GOWA-Elbe Phase II
Ecological consequences
Human activities
Climate changes
Costs
Find solutions which have large ecological effects with a optimum of costs
Nutrient loads
Water Quality
Linkage between nutrient loads and ecological state of the river
Classification of phytoplankton in
rivers
Tool for the modeling:
QSIM
Water Quality
Classes and linkage between phosphorus and phytoplankton in rivers
Classes and linkage between nitrogen/phosphorus and ecological state
of the coastal zone?
Water Quality
Linkage between human activities and nutrient loads
Activities in urban area
Agricultural activities
Measures for sewers / WWTP / connection of
peoplecentral versus decentral
RAUMIS / SWIM
Water Quality
N taxe
Catchment 1 Catchment 2
Bufferstrips
Increasing costs
Mea
sure
x
Reduction of N / P load (t/a)
Mea
sure
Y
Costs (€/a)
Degree of application
Cost – efficient combination of measure?
- Scenarios
- Bio-economic model
Min! (Costs * Degree of application)
random condition N / P reduction targetsl
Costs and effects
Water Quality
Conclusions
• A harmonized database for the total Elbe for the diffuse sources of nutrient entries exists. An enlargement for point sources is needed for the calculation of individual measures.
• Average changes of climate are compared to human activities of minor importance for the nutrient emissions. But what is the sensitivity of biological indicators and which changes can be expected for extreme changes?
• Beside the emissions the retention processes determine the nutrient concentrations and ecological state of the water bodies. Measures for changes of retention have to be studied especially for lakes and wetlands.
• The combination of the model MONERIS with the models RAUMIS and SWIM is realised for the study of agricultural and climate influences on the nutrient emissions and loads.
• This set of models have to be enlarged by bio-economic and ecosystem models to estimate the costs of different ecological states of the water bodies