Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe
description
Transcript of Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe
Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe
May 19 th 2005 Second GLOWA-Status Conference, Cologne
Challenges of global change for sustainable water use in the German Elbe basin
*Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Overview
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts
2. Integrative Methodological Approach
3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts
□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry
□ Water availability in Spree-Havel
5. Adjusting measures □ Spree-Havel basin
Fig. 1 The Elbe basin
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts
Rural beside of metropolitan areas (Berlin, Prague, Hamburg, Leipzig, Dresden).
Water availability second lowest in Europe (680 m3/capita year).
Fig. 1 The Elbe basin
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts
Mild climate (8.6°C) with low precipitation totals (616 mm)
Climatic water balance (P-Epot) just even.
Rich on surface water.
Territory share of the German part by East German states: 88% .
East-German transition (since 1989)
Fig. 1 The Elbe basin
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts
Welfare• Initial increase in per capita income
from about 10 to 16 thousand €.• Investments in public infrastructure.• Deindustrialisation:
> Net loss of 3 Mill. Working places.• Shrinking population:
> Emigration,> Dropped birth rates from 1.6 to 0.77, recently climbing back to 1.3.
Water sector• Increase in water quality.• 12 000 ha lake surface for Lusatia.• High GDP share of primary sectors:
> gas, energy & water supply and Agriculture.
• Oversized water infrastructure.• Increasing water prices.• Decreasing water consumption per
capita.
Climate Drying
Fig. 1 The Elbe basin
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts
+1.1 °C
-46 mm, Summer
+50 mm, Winter
Recent 50 year changes
Temperature
Precipitation
Policies for sustainable use of surface water:
• Alleviation of landscape run off, increasing the residence time of surface water.
• Further decrease of nutrient emissions from point and diffuse sources.
GLOWA-Elbe: Applicability under global change and necessary specifications.
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts
Overview
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts2. Integrative Methodological Approach3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts
□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry
□ Water availability in Spree-Havel
5. Adjusting measures □ Spree-Havel basin
4 Evaluation
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
4 Evaluation
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
2. Integrative Methodological Approach- Distributed Mode
IMA-General:
• Reference system to control research activities within a global change project.
4 Evaluation
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
4 Evaluation
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
IMA-Distributed Mode
• Adjusting to specific needs
• Directing
• Harmonizing and
• Synchronizing research.
Water quality:
N-Entry
Water quantity: surface water regulation
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Indicators & criteriaScenarios
Impact analysis
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Glowa-Elbe control
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Spree-Havel
BerlinSpreewald1 2
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2. Integrated Methodological Approach- Research Network
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Elbe Elbe German Unstrut
Basic definitions:• topics & • scales.
Refinement specific problem structures, regional hot spots, and the available knowledge.
Harmonizing: scenarios, indicators.Crosschecking: simulations.Final integration: extra- and interpolations, aggregation.
Overview
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts2. Integrative Methodological Approach3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts
□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry
□ Water availability in Spree-Havel
5. Adjusting measures □ Spree-Havel basin
6. Outlook
3. Global change scenarios
ECHAM4-OPYC3
REMO
Global
Europe
German Elbe
NEURO-FUZZY STARNEURO-FUZZY STAR
comparably most likely of 100 statistical realization
mm K-1
Year -58 -66
Summer -36 -14
Winter -19 -39
ClimateHow likely is further regional drying in the German Elbe basin ?
General socioeconomic development, perspectives for agriculture and brown coal mining
3. Global change scenarios
From A1/ B2 SRES storylines
• general economic growth
• population change
• operating margins of single sectors (tourism) and sector policies.
and sub-sequently specific sector scenarios were formulated
Agricultural policy:
• ‚Partial liberalization‘ following A1
• ‚Fees on mineral N fertilizer‘ use following B2
Brown coal mining in Lusatia:
• No alternative A1 policy
• Finishing after 2035 in consistency with B2
Overview
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts2. Integrated Methodological Approach3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts
□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry
□ Water availability in Spree-Havel
5. Adjusting measures □ Spree-Havel basin
6. Outlook
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
Water quality
Climate 2025-2016 vs. 1990-2000
∆(P-Epot): -27 mm
Frames of development Status ex (Business as usual) Partial liberalisation Nitrogen fee
Farms Nitrogen surpluss not altered by climate change, significantly decreased ‘only’ by Nitrogen fee
Nitrogen entry to the Elbe
decreased only when Nitrogen surplus was reduced
3 Impact 2 Indicators & criteria
1 Problem
1 Scenario
4. 1. Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin
Frame of development
1999 2020
status- partial N- STAR
quo * status-ex * liberalization* fee* 32**
Indicators
• P-Epot [mm]
• Yields1 [dt/ha]
Cereals
Oilseeds
• Arable land2
[million ha]
• Farms N-surplus2
• N-entry3
simulated by 1) SWIM, Hattermann et al. (2005, Kapitel II-2.2.2), 2) RAUMIS, Gömann et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.1.1), 3) MONERIS, Behrendt et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.2)* recent climate 1996-1999, ** scenario climate 2016-2025
4. 1. Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin
11651 hydrotops, daily mode
112 districts, yearly mode
184Subbasins, 5 year mode
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
Frame of development
1999 2020
status- partial N- STAR
quo * status-ex * liberalization* fee* 32**
Indicators change [mm] to status-ex
• P-Epot [mm] 2 2 N N -27
change [%] to status-ex
• Yields1 [dt/ha]
Cereals 6.2 8.2 ▼▼▼ ▼
Oilseeds 3.4 5.2 ▼▼▼ ▼
• Arable land2
[million ha] 4.1 4.1 ▼▼▼ ▼
• Farms N-surplus2 74 69 ▼ ▼▼▼ N
change [%] to status-quo (=100)
• N-entry3
change [%] to status-ex
▼▼ N
simulated by 1) SWIM, Hattermann et al. (2005, Kapitel II-2.2.2), 2) RAUMIS, Gömann et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.1.1), 3) MONERIS, Behrendt et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.2)* recent climate 1996-1999, ** scenario climate 2016-2025
4. 1. Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact at the same
order as STAR 32 impact on
Et and
Run off
Overview
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts2. Integrative Methodological Approach3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts
□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry
□ Water availability in Spree-Havel
5. Adjusting measures □ Spree-Havel basin
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
Flooding of misused coal pits
duration increased by about 6 month, extra demand of 1000 t calc hydrate for neutralization treatment
Climate2020-2050 vs. 1990-2000 ∆P: - 29 mm ∆T: + 0.5°K
Frame of development: business as usual
Inflow to Berlin the minimum of 8m3/s could not be guaranteed anymore during the summer of a dry year
Water availability in Spree-Havel
2 Indicators & criteria
1 Problem
1 Scenario
3 Impact
4. 2. Scenario impacts: Water availability in Spree-Havel
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
WBALMO400 water users14 reservoirs170 local balances
Overview
1. Water related facts, trends & concepts2. Integrated Methodological Approach3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts
□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry
□ Water availability in Spree-Havel
5. Adjusting measures □ Spree-Havel basin
4 Evaluation
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
4 Evaluation
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
1 Problem Water availability in Spree-Havel
1 Scenario
Climate: Frame of development: Management alternatives at the upper Spree region:
o Basis
o Accelerated flooding
o Reduced ditches
o Water imports from the Oderbasin at Spreewald hight
o Water import from the Oder at Berlin hight
o SRES A1
o SRES B2
o Recent
o STAR100
2 Indicators & criteria
Net benefit discounted at 2% for water supply, fish farming, water treatment &tourism at the new lake sites
Water availability for industry and ecosystems Inflow for Spreewald and Berlin
5. Adjusting measures in the Spree-Havel basin
Net benefit______________________________
Water availability
____________Inflow
__________
wa
ter su
pp
ly
Fish
farm
ing
wa
ter tre
atm
en
t
tou
rism a
t the
ne
w la
ke site
s
ind
ustry
eco
system
s
Sp
ree
wa
ld
Be
rlin
Meanrank
Ranking1)
Recent
basis
3 5 4 4 2 4 3 4 4
STAR1002) 3 4 3 5 3 3 3 4 4
recent accelerated flooding
5 2 5 1 5 1 2 2 3
STAR100 5 2 5 1 5 1 2 2 3
recent reduced ditches
4 1 3 2 2 2 5 5 3
STAR100 4 1 4 3 3 3 5 5 4
recentOder BrB
1 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 2
STAR100 1 5 1 2 1 2 1 2 2
recentOder Bln
2 4 2 4 2 4 3 2 3
STAR100 2 3 2 4 2 3 3 1 3
1) strategy is the better the lower the rank (1- best, 5-worst)2) analysis across all 100 realisations of the scenario
4 Evaluation
1 Scenario
2 Indicators & criteria
3 Impact
Of course, sensitive to suggested
discount rate !
5. Adjusting measures in the Spree-Havel basin
1Scenario
3Impact
4E
valu
atio
n
2 Indicators & criteria
Project I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA)
Regional actors, decision bodies
Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change
Glo
ba
lC
ha
ng
eM
ana
gem
ent
lev
el
Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis
Management-options
Impact-analysis
Evaluation
Project IV:
Surface Water Quality
Nutrient entry
Cost-efficiency analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socio-economic Indicators
Project III:
Surface Water Availability
Run off regulation
Multi-criteria analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socio-economic Indicators
Pro
ject adviso
ry bo
ard
Severe water shortages at Berlin after 2030 during the summer month.
Adaptation:• Accelerated flooding of
abandoned coal pits,• Earlier introduction of water
saving technologies,• Longer Mining (?).
• Climate drying might continue.
• Nitrogen entry to the Elbe river and finally to the North Sea is robust to climate change.
• Management strategies that reduce the nitrogen surplus of agricultural land are needed.
Vattenfall Europe (for water availability) and Agriculture (for
water quality) are key regional actors for matching sustainability standards and adjusting to global
change !
IMA feasible concept for distributed global change research.
Conclusion
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For Your Attention!