Water in Context of Climate Change in Chile

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07 Noviembre -2012

Vassil Apostolowski; Edgardo Navarro; Marco Quijada

Water in context of climate change in Chile

Modulo: Water in context of Climate Change aspects of mitigation andadaption in the context of sustainability

Profesor: Siegmund

HEIDELBERG CENTER PARA AMRICA LATINA

CENTRO DE EXCELENCIA EN INVESTIGACIN Y DOCENCIA

MASTER GOVERNANCE OF RISKS AND RESOURCES


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La tierra enfrenta un cambio climticoderivado de la actividad del hombre. Este cambio excede

en magnitud y rapidez a las variaciones ocurridas en losltimos 10.000 aos y plantea problemas importantes deadaptacin y planificacin. Con la escasa informacin

disponible se estiman las variaciones de temperatura yprecipitacin que pueden tener lugar en Chile y loseventuales impactos sobre la produccin nacional.

The earth is facing a climatic change derivedfrom human activity. The extent and velocity of suchchange exceed all variations which have taken place

during the last 10,000 years, thus possing majoradaptation and planning problems. Based on the

scarce information available, an estimation is made ofthe variations in temperature and precipitation whichmay be experimented in Chile, as well as the eventual

impact on national production.


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The climate on earth has constantly changed through the geological time.The climate during the quaternary period characterizes itself through

repeated oscillaT he climate on earth has constantly changed through thegeological time. The climate during the quaternary period characterizes

itself through repeated oscillations in the average temperatures, whichdeterminates the so-called glacial-interglacial cycles.

Before the industrial revolution climate changes were caused by naturalcauses, but during the XX century men have started to significantly

interfere in the development of the planet. The change of perspective

represents an unprecedented phenomenon due to its magnitude and thevelocity, with which its taking place, and also due to the consequenceswhich it could implicate for a overpopulated world and for the extreme

longing for resources.tions in the average temperatures, whichdeterminates the so-called glacial-interglacial cycles.

Before the industrial revolution climate changes were caused by naturalcauses, but during the XX century men have started to significantly

interfere in the development of the planet. The change of perspectiverepresents an unprecedented phenomenon due to its magnitude and thevelocity, with which its taking place, and also due to the consequenceswhich it could implicate for a overpopulated world and for the extreme

longing for resources.


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Approximations indicate that within the next 50 to 100 years globalwarming will increase the average superficial temperature of the planet

round 2,3 1,4C. The margin of error shows the high grade ofincertitude regarding the approximation, but the estimated value exceeds

the highest registered during the past 10.000 years. The velocity withwhich occurs the change represents a severe threat for biological andcultural adaptation processes.

For the year 2030 for latitudescorresponding to Arica (18S)

and Chilo (42-43 S) theresults of the atmosphericmodels and the Australian

estimations predict a warmingof 2 to 4 respective. Its

expected that the impact in theregions in the extreme Southwill be even bigger, due to itsproximity to the Antarctic ice.

Temperatures

Situation in Chile

PrecipitationsMore uncertain than the predictionof the rising of the temperature arethe expected changes regarding theprecipitations. Results of different

numeric modeling show highregional discrepancies. In general

terms, a rising of the airtemperature would increment the

atmospheric content of watersteam. Due to this, the convectivemeteorological systems will gain

intensity.


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A MULTICLIMATIC COUNTRY


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Continental and oceanic warming cooling:Since the late 70 ocean temperatures offthe coast of Chile and the air temperatureover continental Chile have trended mixed,represented by color shading on this map.

While the ocean surface and the air incontact with him has cooled more than 0.3

C every 10 years, the air over the AndesMountains has warmed similar magnitude.Notably, global climate change due toincreased greenhouse gas explains, atleast partially, both heating and cooling

oceanic continental.

The south-eastern area of the Pacific Oceanand the west coast of South America

experienced an abrupt warming in the mid-decade of the 70. The causes of this

"climate jump" are not fully known, butmost hypotheses link it to a fluctuation

associated with natural factors in the formof a similar phenomenon, but on a larger

scale, the child - Southern Oscillation.Jumping mid 70 clearly shows the evolutionof the air temperature measured at coastal

stations and on the continent, exhibiting anincrease of more than two degrees during


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Temperature changesbetween 1975 - 2005


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The positive changes (warming)in all regions are greater inscenario A2.

The average temperature

change in scenario A2 regardingthe actual climate in continentalChile oscillates between 2 and4, being more accentual in theAndean regions and the easternplains, diminishing from Northto South.

Only in the austral region inscenario B2 we can observelittle sectors where the warmingwill be below 1.Seasonally,warming is higher in summer

passing 5 in some highersectors of the Andes .


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In the Chilean highlands precipitationsincrement in spring and summer, being moresignificant in spring in the I region in scenarioA2 and more extended to the II region inscenario B2.In the small north the increase

of precipitations is higher in scenario B2 thecovering the whole Chilean territory between20 and 33 S in autumn. In winter it onlyaffects the Andean region with a majorincrease in the northern half.

In Central Chile we can observe a generalreduction of precipitations in scenario A2,

condition which is maintained in scenario B2,with the exception of latitudes south of 33 Sin autumn. The loss is of around 40% in lowerlands gaining in magnitude towards the Andesbanks in summer, but reducing itself inautumn and winter in scenario B2.

The Southern Region shows a transition to the

amounts of the actual climate during autumnand winter, which is faster in scenario B2. Insummer the reduction of precipitations liesaround 40% and in spring around 25%. In theaustral regions the rain losses are around25% in summer, but precipitations willnormalize towards winter. There is a littleincrease of rain throughout the year in the

extreme south.


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Water resources: Determinate degree of vulnerability of the

natural depressionsBiodiversity: Identify most vulnerable ecosystems, habitat

and speciesRefresh knowledge regarding its vulnerability facing climate

changeEnergy: Determinate vulnerability of the generation of

hydroelectric energy in ChileInfrastructure, urban areas and coasts: Evaluate impacts in

the major infrastructure, in the coast and incorporateplanning instruments

Fishing: Estimate vulnerability of fishing resourcesHealth: Strengthen health systems regarding climate change

Formulation of a national and sectorial adaption plans toclimate change

How to confront climate change in Chile?


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Cmo enfrentar el cambio Climtico en Chile/

Water in Context of Climate Change in Chile

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