Climate Change and Air Quality: Context and Challenges

Liveable Peel Air Quality Session

Dr. Quentin ChiottiAir Programme Director

and Senior [email protected]

www.pollutionprobe.org

Climate Change and Air Quality: Context and

Challenges


Pollution Probe is a Canadian non-profit organization that:

• Defines environmental problems through research

• Promotes understanding through education• Presses for practical solutions through advocacy

Pollution Probe is dedicated to achieving positive and tangible

environmental change.

Mission Statement


Earth’s Fragile Atmosphere


The Earth at Night


Smog: risk of cardio/respiratory illnesses – Ontario Medical Association (OMA) estimates 1,900 premature deaths per year Acid Rain: damage to vegetation, lakes and streams Mercury: accumulation in food chain - harmful to wildlife and humans

Climate Change: risk of severe weather and fluctuating water levels, and health effects such as death due to heat and increased smog episodes.

Ozone depletion: risk of skin cancer and cataracts, lower agricultural yields.

Toxics: risk of cancer, respiratory irritation, developmental effects in children and fetuses, and risk to the environment and ecosystems (e.g., reproductive systems in organisms, etc.) and odour.

Air standards: serve to protect local communities from health and environmental impacts.

Air Issues: Scales


MUNICIPALITIES80% Population

50% GHG Emissions

Mitigation and AdaptationAtmospheric Issues

Climate ChangeStratospheric Ozone

DepletionAcid RainAir Quality

Hazardous AirbornePollutants

EmissionsCO2

CH4

N2O

HCFCs

SF6

NOX

SO2

VOCs

PM

Hg

ImpactsWater

Ecosystems

Forests

Agriculture

Energy

Transportation

Infrastructure

Human Health


WHAT IS SMOG?

Smog

O3 PM

Primary PM

Secondary PM

NOX

SO2

VOCs

NH3

NOX

VOCs

• Ozone and fine particulate (PM10 and PM2.5) are key constituents of smog

• Ozone is formed from NO2and VOCs under sunlight conditions

• Fine PM can be emitted as a primary pollutant as well as formed from precursor gases such as SO2, NO2 and VOCs

• Summer smog: PM and O3

• Winter smog: primarily fine PM


Health Effects• Over 100 studies in as many cities have

examined the relationship between air pollution and mortality, others morbidity

• While individual studies may lack precision, the combined weight of evidence is compelling

• Air Pollution Kills


Health Effects• OMA (2005) study

– estimated 5,829 premature deaths annually

– 16,807 hospital admissions– 59,696 emergency room visits– 29,292,100 minor illness days

• Health Canada & Environment Canada (2005) study– 2,900 premature deaths in 4

Ontario cities• Toronto Public Health (2004) study

– 1,700 premature deaths and 6,000 hospital admissions annually


SO2 Concentrations


NO2 Concentrations


O3 1-Hr Max Concentrations


4th Highest O3 levels at Selected Sites Across Ontario


Background Levels: O3 Seasonal Means


Spatial Pattern


Smog Advisories/AlertsYear Advisories Days1993 1 11994 2 61995 6 141996 3 51997 3 61998 3 81999 5 92000 3 42001 7 232002 10 272003 7 19 2004 6 142005 31 55

• yellow: 1980 - 1992

• red: 1993 - 2003


Key Findings• On high ozone concentration

days (when 8-hr running average above CWS of 65 ppb), setting Ontario emissions to zero would have reduced ambient ozone concentrations by 9 percent in the GTA

• Largest contribution due to Ontario’s emissions are downwind of the Golden Horseshoe Area

• For PM, when levels exceed CWS level of 30 µg/m3 Ontario contribution is highest in the GTA at 49 percent

• BUT: 92% health impacts occur during non-smog episodes

• No known thresholds for O3 and PM2.5

444.8 Mil2.7 Mil2.1 MilMI

3621,87513,9257,950ERV

3518,48011,9396,541HA

444,8812,7512,130PD

O%

TotTON

PM: Premature Deaths; HA: Hospital Admissions; ERV: Emergency Room Visits; MI: Minor Illnesses

ON: Ontario; T: Transboundary; Tot: Total; O%: Ontario Proportion


Ontario’s Smog Emissions Profile (2000)Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5)

Vehicles – 33%

Off-Road Engines – 22%Other Transportation – 8%

Electricity – 16%

Other Industrial Point Sources – 11%Electricity – 28%

Non-Iron Smelters - 42%

Other Industrial Point Sources – 18%

Vehicles – 10% Off-Road Engines – 7%

Residential (Area Sources) – 25%Other Area Sources – 19%

Other Industrial Point Sources – 19%

Other Industrial Point Sources – 14% Vehicles – 19%

Residential(Area Sources) – 12%Surface

Coatings – 10%

General Solvent Use – 24%

Off-Road Engines – 8%Other Area

Sources – 8%

Misc. – 12%Misc. – 10%

Misc. – 5% Misc. – 2%

Other Primary Metals – 6%

Non-Iron Smelters – 5%

Electricity – 7%


Concentration Levels of PM2.5

Source: Toronto Public Health

Best time for outdoor exercise during smog episodes is between 6:00 –7:00 AM


Source: Health Canada


IPCC 2001 Canada: +1.1C


2XCO22XCO2

3XCO23XCO2

4XCO24XCO2

IPCC 2001


Kyoto and the Inevitability of Climate Change

“The overwhelming majority of scientific experts, whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced climate change is inevitable. . The question is not whether climate will change... but rather how much... how fast, and where”Robert Watson, Chair of IPCC to CoP6 Delegates, The Hague, November 2000

Stabilization: 40 Kyotos Needed

Based in IMAGE 2 model output

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100300

400

500

600

700

800

Kyoto

Year

Con

cent

ratio

n (p

pmv)

1IS92a

BAU1

2xCO2

Adaptation is necessaryMore mitigation is needed


Canada’s Kyoto Challenge


Average Temperature, with the Canadian model [scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)] (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada)

Long Term Temperature ChangesLong Term Temperature Changes

0

500

3000 km

2010-2030 with respect to 1975-1995

2040-2060 with respect to 1975-1995

2080-2100 with respect to 1975-1995


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Victoria

Calgary

Winnipeg

London

Toronto

Quebec

Fredericton 2080-21002041-20692020-20401961-1990

Number of hot days above 30°C

Heat waves in Canadian cities will become more frequent

Air pollution mortality will increase by 20% and 25% by 2050 and 2080Number of heat-related deaths will double and triple


Urgency of Situation:Opportunity for Integration

Co-benefits; multi-pollutant approach; integrated air issues

Climate Change and Air Quality: Context and Challenges

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