Water Conflicts 1 Stefanie Kaiser, seecon international gmbh.

Water Conflicts

Water Conflicts

1

Stefanie Kaiser, seecon international gmbh

Water Conflicts

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Water Conflicts


Contents

1. Introduction

2. Types of Water Conflicts

3. Physical and Economic Water Scarcity

4. Water for Different Uses on Different Levels

5. Groundwater and Climate Change Pressures

6. Water Conflict or Cooperation?

7. References

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Water Conflicts


Water Will Never Be Free of Politics

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1. Introduction

The importance of water to life means

that providing for water needs and demands will

never be free of politics. PACIFIC INSTITUTE (2011)

Source: http://www.soquelcreekwater.org/School_ED/Poster_lrg_Save-Water-save-.jpg [Accessed: 05.02.2013]

Water Conflicts


Today’s Water Situation

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1. Introduction

• By 2025, more than half of the nations in the world will face freshwater stress or shortages.

• Growing populations spur demand for more industries and farmland, draining water resources more quickly than ever.

• Climate change is expected to exacerbate the problem as it alters rainfall patterns.

WATERPOLITICS (2013)

Water Conflicts


What are Conflicts?

6


Conflict = an incompatible interaction between two or more

actors

Violence Managing differences in a non-violent manner (e.g. through dialogue, institutional and legal

mechanisms)

Conflicts can lead to:

Water Conflicts


Types of Conflicts (1/4)

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• Water related conflicts have no single cause alone.

• Different types of water conflicts:

• Conflicts over the control of water resources as a “cause”

• Water as a military or political “tool”

• Water as a military “target”PACIFIC INSTITUTE (2011)

Water Conflicts



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• Control of Water Resources: where water supplies or access to water is at the root of tensions. PACIFIC INSTITUTE (2011)

• Military Tool: where water resources, or water systems themselves, are used by a nation or state as a weapon during a military action. E.g. during the 2011 Libyan Civil War, forces loyal to dictator Muammar Gaddafi gain control of a water operations center and cut off water supply to the capital. PACIFIC INSTITUTE (2011); UPI (2011)

• Political Tool: where water resources, or water systems themselves, are used by a nation, state, or non-state actor as a tool to reach a political goal. E.g. Serbian engineers shut down water system in Pristina prior to occupation by NATO in 1999. PACIFIC INSTITUTE (2011); REUTERS (1999)

Water Conflicts



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• Terrorism: where water resources, or water systems, are either targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors. E.g. in 2012 up to 150 schoolgirls in Afghanistan were reported sickened by poison in a school water supply in an intentional attack thought to be carried out by religious conservatives opposed to the education of women. PACIFIC INSTITUTE (2011); HAMID (2012)

• Military Target: where water resource systems as a vulnerability of the adversary system are targets of military actions by nations or states. E.g. during the U.S.-led invadion of Iraq in 2003, water systems were reported damages or destroyed by different parties, and major dams were military objectives of the U.S. forces. PACIFIC INSTITUTE

(2011); UNICEF (2003)

Water Conflicts



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• Development Disputes: where water resources or water systems are a major source of contention and dispute in the context of economic and social development. E.g. work on the controversial $13 billion Belo Monte dam in Brazil is halted after protesters burn buildings at three dam sites in 2012. PACIFIC INSTITUTE (2011); PHYS.ORG (2012)

Water Conflicts


Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity

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3. Physical and Economic Scarcity

It’s useful to make a difference between physical and economic water scarcity:

• Physical scarcity: limit of the annually renewable water for different uses (human and ecosystem uses) has been surpassed and backstopping options such as groundwater mining from non-renewable resources are not available or already exhausted.

• Economic water scarcity: sufficient amounts of water are available, but economic, human and institutional capacities for allocating it are severely limited.

Water Conflicts


Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity

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3. Physical and Economic Scarcity

Areas of physical and economic water scarcity. Source: FAO (2007)

Water Conflicts


Water for Different Uses

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• Agriculture (approx. 70% of global withdrawal)

• Industry (20%)

• Domestic uses (approx. 10%)MOLDEN (2007)

Quality and quantity aspects: while the quality of water is vital for drinking water, the quantity aspect is

predominant in the agricultural sector.

Water Conflicts


Water Conflicts on Different Levels

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Water related conflicts can occur on different levels:

• Local

• National

• Regional

• Global

Water Conflicts


Local Level

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• Tensions over the use of a water well

• Or between pastoralists and modern irrigated agriculture

• Where traditional conflict management systems have been eroded and new ones not firmly established, local water related conflicts can turn violent.

• E.g. Pastoralist conflict in Woiyto valley in Ethiopia

ARSANO & BAECHLER (2002)

Source: http://www.saferworld.org.uk/downloads/pubdocs/Addressing%20pastoralist%20conflict%20in%20Ethiopia.pdf [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

Water Conflicts


National Level

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• Question of land use and water rights, as well as infrastructure development, may lead to conflicts

• Both local and national water related conflicts are more likely in economically water scarce countries, as it is more a challenge of infrastructure and management, rather than about water quantity per se.

• E.g. Darfur conflict: increasingly limited water and land resources, possibly also due to climate change, were factors that escalated tensions.

LUZI (2008); MASON et al. (2009)

Water Conflicts


Regional Level

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• Conflicts often arise over shared river basins or trans-boundary groundwater

• More diplomatic and economic tensions than violent

• E.g. Nile Basin, Mekong, Jordan, Euphrates-Tigris, Syr Darya and Amu Darya

East Africa and the Nile basin. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_politics_in_the_Nile_Basin [Accessed: 05.02.2013]

Water Conflicts


Global Level

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Water in the form of food (“virtual water”) links the world availability of water with the global food trade.

National virtual water trade balances over the period 1995-99. The red colours represent net import whereas green colours show net export. Source: HOEKSTRA (2003)

Water Conflicts


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• The largely unseen nature of groundwater often make conflicts over access and control of these resources more diffuse as compared to the case of surface water.

• In the case of groundwater irrigation for agriculture, the resources provide important means to buffer against climate variability and are thus key income-smoothing assets.

• If it is not managed adequately, this may result in social and political unrest or even conflict.

SIEGFRIED (2004)

Groundwater and Climate Change - Two Special Challenges for Peaceful Dispute Resolutions

Water Conflicts


E.g. Depleting River Flows in Middle East (1/2)

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• All the countries in the Middle East already face serious water shortage and additional climate-induced resource scarcity could escalate conflicts and political turmoil.

• The river flows in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan have depleted by 50 to 90% from 1960 to 2010.

• See the example of the rivers Yarmouk and Jordan on the next slide.

SDC (2012)

Water Conflicts


E.g. Depleting River Flows in Middle East (2/2)

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Depleting river flows of the rivers Yarmouk and Jordan. Source: Strategic Foresight Group (2011)

Water Conflicts


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Does water stress necessarily lead to conflicts?

Yes!

Water war hypothesis

No!

Water cooperation is common

http://www.123rf.com/photo_10743647_world-water-health-network-of-world-cooperation-represented-by-a-blue-drop-of-h2o-and-human-characte.html [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

Source: http://newmanagersonline.net/images/conflict.jpg [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

Water Conflicts


Water War Hypothesis

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• “I believe water will be the defining crisis of our century, the main vehicle through which climate change will be felt—from droughts, storms, and floods to degrading water quality. We’ll see major conflicts over water; water refugees.” - Alexandra Cousteau, Social Environmental Advocate WATERPOLITICS (2013)

• It seems intuitive: ‘the less water there is, the more likely it is that people will fight over it’.

But is this true?

Well, actually, no…

Water Conflicts


Water Cooperation

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• Researchers have found that arid climates are no more conflict-prone than humid ones.

• It also transpires that conflicts over water erupt in equal measure in rich and poor countries, democracies and autocracies.

UNESCO (2013)

Water Conflicts


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• At the international level water appears to provide reasons for trans-boundary cooperation rather than war.

• While there has been conflict related to water in a handful of international basins...

• ... in the rest of the world’s approximately 300 shared basins the record has been largely positive.

• Places that generally cooperated with each other, usually also cooperated over water.

• In places where there were conflicts, such as the Middle East, there were often other causes for disagreement. In other words, the water situation didn't’t help but it was not the main cause of war.

IWMI (2006)

Water Cooperation

Water Conflicts


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• This is perhaps exemplified by the hundreds of treaties in place guiding equitable water use between nations sharing water resources.

• The institutions created by these agreements can, in fact, be one of the most important factors in ensuring cooperation rather than conflict.

IWMI (2006)

Water more often unites than divides people and societies. UN (2013)

Water Cooperation

Water Conflicts


ARSANO, Y. & BAECHLER, G. (2002):The Transformation of Resource Conflicts: Mechanisms and the Case of the Woiyto River Valley in Southern Ethiopia. In: BAECHLER, G. (Editor); WENGER, A. (Editor) (2002): Conflict and Cooperation – The Individual Between Ideal and Reality. Festschrift in honour of Kurt R. Spillmann. Zurich.

FAO (2007): Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. URL: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/art/2007/maps_waterscarcity.gif [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

HAMID, M. (2012): Afghan schoolgirls poisoned in anti-education attack. Reuters. 17 April 17 2012. URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/us-afghanistan-women-idUSBRE83G0PZ20120417 [Accessed: 11.03.2013]

HOEKSTRA, A.Y. (2003): Virtual Water Trade. Delft: UNESCO-IHE, Institute for Water Education. URL: http://www.waterfootprint.org/Reports/Report12.pdf [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

IWMI (2006): Promoting cooperation through management of transboundary water resources. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. URL: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Success_Stories/PDF/2010/Issue%208%20-%20Promoting_cooperation_through_effective_management_of_shared_water_resources.pdf [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

Strategic Foresight Group (2011). The Blue Peace. Rethinking Middle East Water. Mumbai: Strategic Foresight Group. URL: http://www.strategicforesight.com/Highlights%20The%20Blue%20Peace.pdf [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

LUZI, S. (2008): Double-Edged Hydropolitics on the Nile. Linkages between Domestic Water Policy Making and Transboundary Conflict and Cooperation. Zurich: CSS/ETH Zurich. URL: http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/116785/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/b8cfcd04-7d48-4b1f-bcc9-d794c51d5c7e/en/DoubleEdgedHydropoliticsontheNile_SamuelLuzi.pdf [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

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References

Water Conflicts


MASON, S.A.; HAGMANN, T.; BICHSEL, C.; LUDI, E.; ARSANO, Y. (2009): Linkages Between Sub-national and International Water Conflicts: the Eastern Nile Basin. In: BRAUCH, H. et al. (Editors) (2009): Facing Global Environmental Change: Environmental, Human, Energy, Food, Health and Water Security Concepts. Volume 4: Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace. Berlin.

MOLDEN, D. (2007): Water for Food, Water for Life. A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. London: Earthscan, Colombo: International Water Management Institute. URL: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/docs/Summary_SynthesisBook.pdf [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

PACIFIC INSTITUTE (2011): Water Conflict Chronology. Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute. URL: http://worldwater.org/conflict/index.html [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

PHYS.ORG (2012): Trouble at Brazil mega-dam stops construction for now. Douglas, UK: Phys.Org. URL: http://phys.org/news/2012-11-brazil-mega-dam.html [Accessed: 13.03.2013]

REUTERS (1999): NATO keeps up strikes but Belgrade quiet. Reuters, 5 June 5 1999. URL: http://dailynews. yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19990605/wl/yugoslavia_strikes_129.html [Accessed in June 1999].

SDC (2012): The Blue Peace in the Middle East. Bern: Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC. URL: http://www.deza.admin.ch/en/Home/Projects/Selected_projects/Water_management_and_peace_promotion_in_the_Middle_East [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

SIEGFRIED, T.U. (2004): Optimal utilization of a non-renewable transboundary groundwater resource. Methodology, case study and policy implications. Dissertation. Zurich: ETH. URL: http://e-collection.library.ethz.ch/view/eth:27559 [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

UN (2013): Water cooperation. New York: United Nations. URL: http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/water_cooperation.shtml [Accessed: 26.02.2013] 28

References

Water Conflicts


UNESCO (2013): The year of water politics. Paris: United Nations Organization for Education, Science and Culture. URL: http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/resources/periodical/a-world-of-science/vol-11-n-1/in-focus-water-cooperation [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

UNICEF (2003): Iraq: Cleaning up neglected, damaged water system, clearing away garbage. News Note Press Release, May 27, 2003. URL: http://www.unicef.org/media/media_6998.html [Accessed: 11.03.2013]

UPI (2011): Gadhafi turns water project into a weapon. United Press International, 2 September 2 2011. URL: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2011/09/02/Gadhafi-turns-water-project-into-a-weapon/UPI-66451314984213 [Accessed: 11.03.2013]

WATERPOLITICS (2013): Introduction. Las Vegas, NV: Water Politics Limited. URL: http://www.waterpolitics.com [Accessed: 26.02.2013]

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References

Water Conflicts 30

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Water Conflicts 1 Stefanie Kaiser, seecon international gmbh.

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