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Transcript of Washington D.C. September 10, 2004 Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand Thailand Power...
Washington D.C.September 10, 2004
Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
Thailand Power Development PlanThailand Power Development Plan
(PDP2004 , 2004-2015)(PDP2004 , 2004-2015)
Thailand Power SectorThailand Power Sector
MEA, PEA (Distribution)
NEPC(Chaired
byPrime
Minister)
Customer
Private Co.IPP, SPP
PPA
EGAT
(Generation , Transmission)
2
THAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNINGTHAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
OBJECTIVES
• To generate and supply power to meet demand with goodquality and high reliability
• To generate power at least cost
• To control the environmental and social effect at the lowest level
3
BASIC Procedure for Power Development Plan StudyBASIC Procedure for Power Development Plan Study
Load ForecastLoad ForecastLoad ForecastLoad Forecast Criteria and AssumptionCriteria and AssumptionCriteria and AssumptionCriteria and Assumption PDPPDPPDPPDP
11 22 33
4
ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THAILAND
( FISCAL YEAR 2003 )
TOTAL 104,389 GWh
Others
6,617 GWh 6.3%
Small General Service
10,207 GWh 9.8%Residential
23,034 GWh 22.1%
Medium General Service
19,667 GWh 18.8%
Large General Service
41,655 GWh 39.9%Specific Business
3,209 GWh 3.1%
5
TOTAL ENERGY DEMAND
ResidentialSmall
General Service
SpecificBusiness
Government& Non-Profit
StreetLighting
Medium& LargeGeneral Service59
%
End-UseApproach
RegressionbetweenEnergy
&GDP Bussiness
RegressionbetweenEnergy
&GDP Hotel
RegressionbetweenEnergy
&GDP Public
RegressionbetweenEnergy
&Population
• Projected Energy Intensity• GDP by Production Sub-Sector
Load Forecast Principle Methodology Load Forecast Principle Methodology
6
9.8%
3%
22%
(Load Profile)
Total Generation Requirement DemandTotal Generation Requirement Demand
7
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
MW
Fiscal Year
MEG(GDP 6%)
TEG(GDP 7.5%)
LEG(GDP 4%)
Load Forecast January 2004Load Forecast January 2004
Jan , 2004
8
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
MW
Fiscal Year
MEG(GDP 6%)
TEG(GDP 7.5%)
LEG(GDP 4%)
Load Forecast January 2004Load Forecast January 2004
Aug 02(GDP 4.7%)
Jan , 2004
9
THAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNINGTHAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
CRITERIA AND ASSUMPTIONS CRITERIA AND ASSUMPTIONS
2. Introduction of a 500 MW for peak cutting.
4. Power purchase from the neighbouring countries/
new capacity.
1. Minimum Reserve Margin 15%.
3. RPS 5% (630 MW).
12
Fiscal January 2004 (MEG) MEG : Peak Cut 500 MW
Year Increase Increase
MW % MW %
1999 13,712.4 -467.5 -3.3 13,712.4 -467.5 -3.3
2000 14,918.3 1,205.9 8.8 14,918.3 1,205.9 8.8
2001 16,126.4 1,208.1 8.1 16,126.4 1,208.1 8.1
2002 16,681.1 554.7 3.4 16,681.1 554.7 3.4
2003 18,121.4 1,440.3 8.6 18,121.4 1,440.3 8.6
2004 19,600 1,479 8.2 19,600 1,479 8.2
2005 21,143 1,543 7.9 21,143 1,543 7.9
2006 22,738 1,595 7.5 22,238 1,095 5.2
2007 24,344 1,606 7.1 23,844 1,606 7.2
2008 26,048 1,704 7.0 25,548 1,704 7.1
2009 27,852 1,804 6.9 27,352 1,804 7.1
2010 29,808 1,956 7.0 29,308 1,956 7.2
2011 31,844 2,036 6.8 31,344 2,036 6.9
2012 33,945 2,101 6.6 33,445 2,101 6.7
2013 36,173 2,228 6.6 35,673 2,228 6.7
2014 38,515 2,342 6.5 38,015 2,342 6.6
2015 40,978 2,463 6.4 40,478 2,463 6.5
MWMW
EGAT Generation Requirement - Peak Cut 500 MWEGAT Generation Requirement - Peak Cut 500 MWUnit : MW
13
* * *****
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000 PDP 2004
20142005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112004 2012 20152013
SPP
20
.2 M
W
1 2 1 4 3 3 4
= 23 Units
41
26.8% 19.9% 13.7% 15.3% 15.5% 15.9% 14.3% 14.4% 15.3% 14.3% 14.6% 14.2%
SPP
16
3.7
MW
RP
S +
175
MW
INSTALLED CAPACITY AND PEAK GENERATION IN 2004-2015
INSTALLED CAPACITY
DEPENDABLE CAPACITY
Reserve Margin
CA
PA
CIT
Y (
MW
)
Kra
bi #
1 3
40 M
W, L
an K
rabu
122
MW
Lam
Tak
ong
PS.
#1-
2 2
x500
MW
, SP
P 1
02.2
MW
BL
CP
Pow
er #
1-2
2x6
73.2
5 M
W
GU
LF
Pow
er (
Add
itio
nal)
700
MW
Song
Khl
a C
C
700
MW
GU
LF
Pow
er 7
00 M
W
Rat
chab
uri P
ower
#1-
2
2x70
0 M
W
Nor
th B
angk
ok C
C #
1 7
00 M
W
Sout
h B
angk
ok C
C #
1 7
00 M
W
Pur
chas
es f
rom
Lao
(N
am T
huen
2)
920
MW
Ban
g P
akon
g C
C #
5
700
MW
New
Cap
acit
y 4
x700
+ 1
40 M
W
New
Cap
acit
y 3
x700
+ 1
05 M
W
New
Cap
acit
y 3
x700
+ 1
05 M
W
New
Cap
acit
y 4
x700
+ 1
40 M
W
New
Cap
acit
y 4
x700
+ 1
40 M
W
PEAK DEMAND
FISCAL YEAR14
020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000220,000240,000260,000280,000 New Capacity
RPS Renewable SPP EGAT
-TNB Diesel Heavy Oil Natural Gas Imported Coal Lignite Hydro
GWh
15% 12% 11% 11% 8%9% 7%
74%74%
75%76%
71%
14%19%
26%32%
13%
FISCAL YEAR
10% 9% 8% 7% 7%
72% 70% 66%65%
FORECAST OF ENERGY GENERATION BY TYPE OF FUELS
64% 60% 54% 49%
6%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
15
Thailand Minimum Reserve MarginThailand Minimum Reserve MarginFiscal Year Dependable MEG Peak Cut Reserve
Capacity (MW) (MW) %2004 24,858.3 19,600(8.16) 26.82005 25,358.3 21,143(7.87) 19.92006 25,281.9 22,238(5.18) 13.72007 27,492.1 23,844(7.22) 15.32008 29,592.1 25,548(7.15) 15.52009 31,692.1 27,352(7.06) 15.92010 33,487.1 29,308(7.15) 14.32011 36,427.1 31,344(6.95) 14.42012 38,557.1 33,445(6.70) 15.32013 40,762.1 35,673(6.66) 14.32014 43,702.1 38,015(6.57) 14.62015 46,242.1 40,478(6.48) 14.2
(NT2, 920 MW)
16* Install Capacity 25,705 MW (March 2004)
Sensitivity Study Load Forecast (Up to 2010)Sensitivity Study Load Forecast (Up to 2010)
1. MEG Adjust 2004 : 19,326 MW (19,600 MW)
Future Growth as MEG ( 7.1% Per Year)
2010 Load difference 418 MW
2. MEG Adjust 2004 : 19,326 MW (19,600 MW)
Future Growth as 2004 ( 6.64% Per Year)
2010 Load difference 1,383 MW
17
Thailand Minimum Reserve Margin (Study Case)Thailand Minimum Reserve Margin (Study Case) Fiscal Year Dependable MEG Adjust Reserve
Capacity (MW) Peak (MW) %2004 24,858.3 19,325(6.64) 28.62005 25,358.3 20,609(6.64) 23.02006 25,281.9 21,978(6.64) 15.02007 27,492.1 23,438(6.64) 17.32008 29,592.1 24,995(6.64) 18.42009 31,692.1 26,655(6.64) 18.92010 33,487.1 28,425(6.64) 17.82011 36,427.1 30,313(6.64) 20.22012 38,557.1 32,326(6.64) 19.32013 40,762.1 34,473(6.64) 18.22014 43,702.1 36,763(6.64) 18.92015 46,242.1 39,205(6.64) 18.0
(NT2, 920 MW)
18
Sufficiency With Least Cost,
No Brownout ,
No Rolling Blackout ,
No Blackout
24
Thailand Power Development PlanThailand Power Development Plan