Wall Street Crisis, Stock Market Crash and the FOREX Market!
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Transcript of Wall Street Crisis, Stock Market Crash and the FOREX Market!
“A Perfect Storm”
Wall Street worst performance week since June 2011
Technical Analysis
Week: Oct. 13 to 17
By:Eliecer Alberto Velasco BS, Ms.
S&P Erases YTD Gains
200 day Moving Average
Oct. 15, 2014Decline
-9.8%
Today is the end of nearly two years trading above that technical indicator
Bear Market
200 Day Moving Average
Oct. 15, 2014
YTD 2013 - 2014
-7.2%
Bear Market
200 Day Moving Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average
GO
The breaking of the 200-day moving average means the stock market’s has officially turned down.
200 Day Moving Average
Bear Market
Oct. 15, 2014
2014
DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ YTD Comparisons
200 SMA
EconomicOil ProductionWars & ConflictsWeatherBRICS CountriesEBOLA Outbreak
Escalating Geopolitical Tensions & Global Economic Concerns
“Geopolitics is what’s really driving the market at this moment and is putting the global economic recovery at risk,” WSJ
Oct.14/14
Survey of Fund Managers this week showed the lowest optimism in the outlooks for economic growth and inflation in two years!
CBOE VIX or Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index
Measure of Volatility or “Wall Street Fear Gauge”
Spiked above Historical Average
Historical Average
Oct.14/14
Factory Orders-5.7 %
World Traumatic Economic Events
Retail sales dropped 0.3%
Wholesale prices fell for the first time in a year.
Weakest German investor confidence in
two years
Unable to collectively lower output
Chinese factory prices dropping for a record-
tying 31st month. Industrial production tumbled
3.3% from a year ago
IMF says Global economic growth expects to be 3.3% in
2014, down from its April forecasts 3.5%
Week: Oct. 13 to 17
GDP 2.5 %
30.5 million barrel a day
For the first time in 16 months
The yield had dipped as low as 1.865% as investors fled stocks, junk bonds, and other risky assets amid fears over slowing global growth and move for the
safety of government bonds.
10/09/2014
European stocks fell for an eighth day in the longest rout since 2003
Nikkei 225 Stock Average
Nikkei 225 is the leading and most-respected index of Japanese stocks. It is a price-weighted index comprised of Japan's top 225 blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Gold, a Safe-Haven CommodityUSD $
Gold - Electronic [GCZ4]
Dow closes down for 6th day in a row
surrounded by high volatility
Uncertainty reigns in the Stock Market
Confusion
Chaos
The seeds of another collapse had already
sprouted
Geopolitical
concerns
Meltdown
Turmoil
Volatile session
A “Perfect Storm” on the selloff
The stock market, inevitably, is
going to crash
Panic
The Wild West of volatilityDece
lerating
Wild Swings for Stocks
Selloff
Whirlwind trading session
Economic data that’s worrisome
Harrowing
Ris
k a
ve
rsio
n
U.S. stocks slide; Dow drops triple-digits
Anarchy A
larm
ing
European stocks slip into correction
Stocks from Energy Sector Sinks
2014
Increasing Crude OilSupply
Decreasing Crude Oil Demand
Energy Sector breaks long-term uptrend
200 Day Moving Average
50 Day Moving Average
Uptrend line
Uptrend line
Oct. 15, 2014
Oct. 17
2014
U.S. drivers are celebrating the benefit of strong global crude production and weak demand causing oil prices to drop
$81.17
Crude Oil [WTI] Prices fall as supply Grows and demand Shrink$107.77
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
Jan. Mar. May Jul. Sep. Oct.16/2014
When oil prices fall below $100 a barrel, Russia and the OPEC countries have a hard time balancing their budgets, which are largely dependent on oil revenues.
Barrels per Day
Highest $3.696 in April 15
Lowest $2.956 in Oct.17
2014
$/gallon
Regular gasoline price in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in more than three-and-a-half years
U.S. oil output increased to 8.88 million barrels a day the week of Oct. 3, the most since March 1986. U.S. production has increased 65 percent in the past
five years
The surging dollar, plummeting oil prices
and recessionary bond yields are
creating havoc in the markets because
they are signaling deflation.
Russia needs oil prices of $117
a barrel to break even.
Russia, the single worst major global stock market of recent times, according to The Wall Street Journal.So far in 2014, the RTS Index has lost 26.2% and averages 8% annual declines over the last three years.
Investors tend to behave the same way when they are driven by similar levels of
uncertainty, fear and/or greed.
Global Geopolitical tension,
Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Israel, Hong
Kong, North Korea, Afghanistan….
Ebola is this year’s October surprise
Why Wall Street loves this boom and bust? Because Panic buying and Selling increase fees
Interconnected worries over deflation, a potential rerun of the eurozone debt crisis and some surprisingly rotten U.S. economic data, start the flame!
4,039 Deaths Barclay Berdan is the CEO of Texas Health Resources apologizes for EBOLA response at Dallas
Hospital, “Health Presbyterian made mistakes in handling this very difficult challenge and is deeply sorry for failing to identify Ebola as the cause of Thomas Eric Duncan’s symptoms”.
EBOLA and The deja-vu selloff effect
SP500 2014
The panic over the Ebola crisis appears to be reaching a climax point
Now is the best time to invest in the FOREX Market!
BRICS Don’t Like the Dollar-Dominated World Economy
Would cause a collapse of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency and a worldwide depression
Brazil Russia India China South Africa
They announced a $100 billion capitalization of a Contingent Reserve Arrangement for BRICS‘ New Development Bank, with an initial $50 billion fund, $10 billion coming from each of the five
members. Its headquarters will be in Singapore. Yuan
Renminbi,
Weakening of the USD$
Stronger USD$
Selling USD$ to buy Swiss Franc
Swiss Franc, a “Safe Haven” Currency
2014
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