WILL GEOPOLITICS UNDO THE WORLD ECONOMY?

Michael Lind

September 2014

Three Trends

1) Slowing growth

2) The Salafist revolution and the decline of Sykes-Picot

3) Increasing great-power rivalries

Slowing Growth Worldwide

Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2014

Asia: A Middle Income Trap?

Source: Asian Development Bank and the Financial Times

Political Responses to Slow Growth

Exporting unemployment by:

1. Promoting current account surpluses

2. Protectionism

3. Immigration Restriction

Euro Area Current Account

Source: Eurostat

Weak global growth has meant limited improvement in net exports

Modes of Protectionism Since 2008

Source: AIEN Network

The Salafist Revolution and the Decay of Sykes-Picot

• Implications for financial and internet integration

• Implications for trade, travel and immigration

Trade Follows the Flag

Source: The Washington Times

TTIP and NATO

Source: Curiousmatic & Economy In Crisis

BRICS members and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)

Source: SCO & Wikimedia

RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)

Source: Wikimedia

Russian Pipelines

Source: Samuel Bailey

Sino-Pakistan Pipeline

Source: South Asia Investor Review