Department of Agriculture

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS 1184 Ben-lor Bldg., Quezon Avenue, Quezon City

CROPS STATISTICS DIVISION, Cereals Statistics Section Tel No. (02) 3712067 info@bas.gov.ph

http://www.bas.gov.ph

Republic of the Philippines Department of Agriculture BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS Quezon City

VOLUME 24 NO. 4

October 2010

ISSN-2012-0346

i  

EXPLANATORY NOTES

This report describes the palay and corn crop situation for January-September 2010 based on estimates and the outlook for October-December 2010 and January-March 2011 based on farmers’ standing crop and planting intentions, respectively. The estimates and forecasts are based on the results of the October 2010 Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) which is conducted nationwide by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS). The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and monthly decadal rainfall. Data on prices are the results of the Weekly Cereals and Fertilizer Price Monitoring (WCFPM) of the BAS. Household stocks data are obtained from the Palay and Corn Stocks Survey (PCSS1) of the BAS, while data on stocks in commercial warehouses and NFA depositories are from the National Food Authority (NFA). Rainfall data are sourced from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

ii  CONTENTS

Explanatory Notes i Table of Contents ii Weather Situation and Outlook iii Highlights 1 Crop Estimates

1. Palay 1-4 2. Corn 5-8 Rice and Corn Stocks 8-10 Prices

1. Palay/Rice 10-11 2. Corn 11-12 3. Fertilizer 13 Rainfall 14 Tables

Table 1. Palay: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by semester, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010 15

Table 2. Palay: Final estimates and forecasts, by ecosystem, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010 16

Table 3. Palay: Final estimates and forecasts, by ecosystem, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011 17

Table 4. Palay: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010 18

Table 5. Palay: Final estimates and forecasts, by semester, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010 19

Table 6. Palay: Final estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011 20

Table 7. Corn: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by semester, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010 21

Table 8. Corn: Final estimates and forecasts, by croptype, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010 22

Table 9. Corn: Final estimates and forecasts, by croptype, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011 23

Table 10. Corn: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010 24

Table 11. Corn: Final estimates and forecasts, by semester, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010 25

Table 12. Corn: Final estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011 26

Table 13. Percentage change in the inventory of rice stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009-2010 27

Table 14. Percentage change in the inventory of corn stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009-2010 27

Table 15. Palay/Rice: Monthly average prices, by type, by market level, Philippines and Metro Manila, 2008-2010 28

Table 16. Corn: Monthly average prices, by type, by market level, Philippines, 2008-2010 29

Table 17. Fertilizer: Monthly average dealer’s prices, by grade, Philippines, 2008-2010 30 Table 18. Cumulative actual and normal rainfall, by region, Philippines,

January-September, 2009-2010 31

iii 31  Table 18. Cumulative actual and normal rainfall, by region,

Philippines, January-September, 2009-2010

Weather Situation and Outlook1

July- October 2010

The moderate La Ñina continued to persist in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Consistent with nearly all of the forecast models, La Ñina was expected to peak during the November-December-January season before it gradually weakens by March-April-May (MAM 2011) season. The weather systems that affected the country during the period July to October 2010 were the frontal systems, the low pressure areas (LPAs), intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), Northeast monsoon winds (NE), southwest monsoon, ridge of high pressure area (HPA) and the passage of ten (10) tropical cyclones namely: tropical depressions (TD) Caloy (July 19-20) and Florita (August 27-28); Tropical storms (TS) Domeng (August 3-5), Ester (August 6-9) and Henry (September 3-4); and Typhoons (TY) Basyang (July13-15), Glenda (August 29-31), Inday (September 15-19), Juan (October 15-20) and Katring (October 23-28). Typhoon Juan made landfall over eastern Isabela and brought excessive rains in Western Luzon area and caused significant damages to infrastructure and agriculture in six (6) regions. Cagayan Valley suffered the worst in terms of affected population and damaged houses as reported by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

November-December 2010 Outlook The weather systems that will likely influence the climate of the country are Northeast monsoon winds, the tail-end of the cold front, the ITCZ, ridge of high pressure area, cold surge, easterly waves, LPAs and the occurrence of Two (2) or Three (3) tropical cyclones. ————————————————— 1Excerpts from PAGASA August 9, 2010 to November 5, 2010 Weather Situation and Outlook

2010 2009 '10/'09 '10/Normal 2010 2009 '10/'09 '10/Normal 2010 2009 '10/'09 '10/Normal

Philippines 10,516.9 21,952.7 11,959.7 (52.1) (12.1) 13,745.4 16,004.9 13,133.1 (14.1) 4.7 24,262.3 37,957.6 25,092.8 (36.1) (3.3) NCR 270.1 1,030.7 471.0 (73.8) (42.7) 1,062.3 1,865.1 1,046.1 (43.0) 1.5 1,332.4 2,895.8 1,517.1 (54.0) (12.2) CAR 568.6 994.4 519.0 (42.8) 9.6 954.2 1,517.7 1,065.0 (37.1) (10.4) 1,522.8 2,512.1 1,584.0 (39.4) (3.9) Ilocos 548.3 1,030.4 585.7 (46.8) (6.4) 1,053.9 1,753.0 1,449.0 (39.9) (27.3) 1,602.2 2,783.4 2,034.7 (42.4) (21.3) Cag. Valley 659.1 1,183.9 570.0 (44.3) 15.6 808.5 994.5 824.0 (18.7) (1.9) 1,467.6 2,178.4 1,394.0 (32.6) 5.3 C. Luzon 502.5 1,256.8 486.0 (60.0) 3.4 1,070.5 1,474.6 1,238.0 (27.4) (13.5) 1,573.0 2,731.4 1,724.0 (42.4) (8.8) So. Tagalog 759.1 1,317.5 2,146.0 (42.4) (64.6) 1,692.0 1,961.4 1,665.0 (13.7) 1.6 2,451.1 3,278.9 3,811.0 (25.2) (35.7) Bicol 633.2 2,214.9 934.0 (71.4) (32.2) 932.1 651.8 671.0 43.0 38.9 1,565.3 2,866.7 1,605.0 (45.4) (2.5) W. Visayas 281.4 945.6 529.0 (70.2) (46.8) 745.4 731.7 767.0 1.9 (2.8) 1,026.8 1,677.3 1,296.0 (38.8) (20.8) C. Visayas 317.4 788.0 415.0 (59.7) (23.5) 594.0 412.9 469.0 43.9 26.7 911.4 1,200.9 884.0 (24.1) 3.1 E. Visayas 793.2 2,100.7 955.0 (62.2) (16.9) 774.2 458.6 538.0 68.8 43.9 1,567.4 2,559.3 1,493.0 (38.8) 5.0 W. Mindanao 549.8 1,177.5 586.0 (53.3) (6.2) 710.6 706.0 531.0 0.7 33.8 1,260.4 1,883.5 1,117.0 (33.1) 12.8 N. Mindanao 635.0 1,583.3 697.0 (59.9) (8.9) 796.1 828.9 756.0 (4.0) 5.3 1,431.1 2,412.2 1,453.0 (40.7) (1.5) S. Mindanao 952.6 1,344.1 722.0 (29.1) 31.9 664.7 526.0 477.0 26.4 39.4 1,617.3 1,870.1 1,199.0 (13.5) 34.9 C. Mindanao 726.6 1,130.3 592.0 (35.7) 22.7 591.8 735.1 553.0 (19.5) 7.0 1,318.4 1,865.4 1,145.0 (29.3) 15.1 Caraga 1,574.8 2,618.7 1,398.0 (39.9) 12.6 591.5 930.0 477.0 (36.4) 24.0 2,166.3 3,548.7 1,875.0 (39.0) 15.5 ARMM 745.2 1,235.9 354.0 (39.7) 110.5 703.6 457.6 607.0 53.8 15.9 1,448.8 1,693.5 961.0 (14.4) 50.8

Source: PAGASA

JANUARY-JUNEActual NORMAL % DEVIATION

JULY-SEPTEMBERActual NORMAL % DEVIATION NORMAL

(Millimeter)JANUARY-SEPTEMBER

% DEVIATIONREGION Actual

2008 2009 2010July-Dec 9,695 8,890 9,401 Jan-June 7,121 7,376 6,621

-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

Figure 1. Palay Production, Philippines,January-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

16,266 16,816 16,022

30 1 

HIGHLIGHTS Palay and corn output of the country for calendar year 2010 would be lower than their respective 2009 levels due to the adverse effects of the El Niño phenomenon that hit the country during the later part of 2009 until the early part of 2010. Cagayan Valley and Western Visayas regions were severely affected. The heavy rains and flooding brought about by super typhoon Juan in October left some damages on standing crops that may reduce the fourth quarter harvests for both palay and corn. A positive growth is foreseen for both palay and corn outputs in the first quarter of 2011.

1.0 January-December 2010 Palay and Corn Crop Estimates

1.1 PALAY

Calendar Year 2010 Forecast Palay production for calendar year 2010 is forecast at 16.02 million

MT, 1.5% below the 16.27 million MT output in 2009. The decrease is mainly brought about by the adverse effects of the El Niño phenomenon that resulted in the contraction of harvest area from 4.53 million hectares in 2009 to 4.37 million hectares this year, or by 3.7%. Yield for the year is forecast at 3.67 MT per hectare.

Table 17. Fertilizer: Monthly average dealer’s prices, by grade, Philippines, 2008-2010

2010/2009 2010/2008

UREAJan.-Oct. Ave. 1,501.54 1,041.42 977.81 (6.11) (34.88) January 1,010.32 1,273.72 1,007.73 (20.88) (0.26) February 1,030.03 1,137.39 1,012.28 (11.00) (1.72) March 1,042.54 1,101.90 1,011.21 (8.23) (3.01) April 1,135.48 1,081.33 1,008.26 (6.76) (11.20) May 1,437.04 1,058.92 1,000.50 (5.52) (30.38) June 1,754.43 1,023.96 984.52 (3.85) (43.88) July 1,831.89 967.70 953.47 (1.47) (47.95) August 1,922.80 937.91 927.85 (1.07) (51.74) September 1,933.35 919.85 919.78 (0.01) (52.43) October 1,917.54 911.48 952.45 4.49 (50.33) November 1,758.33 902.10 December 1,523.25 956.05 Annual Ave. 1,524.75 1,022.69

AMMOSULJan.-Oct. Ave. 892.15 622.27 542.51 (12.82) (39.19) January 646.35 770.77 550.86 (28.53) (14.77) February 721.07 673.28 542.76 (19.39) (24.73) March 760.00 665.17 548.06 (17.61) (27.89) April 811.16 653.48 569.02 (12.92) (29.85) May 883.61 640.11 562.66 (12.10) (36.32) June 967.33 613.18 556.26 (9.28) (42.50) July 1,003.74 582.39 528.46 (9.26) (47.35) August 1,038.67 558.61 516.28 (7.58) (50.29) September 1,044.81 538.82 518.46 (3.78) (50.38) October 1,044.76 526.90 532.30 1.02 (49.05) November 994.73 509.45 December 901.64 521.01 Annual Ave. 901.49 604.43

COMPLETEJan.-Oct. Ave. 1,579.63 1,239.27 1,086.48 (12.33) (31.22) January 960.43 1,477.46 1,117.53 (24.36) 16.36 February 1,030.58 1,329.63 1,118.01 (15.92) 8.48 March 1,195.67 1,284.34 1,116.55 (13.06) (6.62) April 1,430.85 1,262.07 1,112.17 (11.88) (22.27) May 1,627.66 1,243.50 1,108.07 (10.89) (31.92) June 1,835.56 1,220.71 1,095.88 (10.23) (40.30) July 1,895.18 1,178.35 1,069.44 (9.24) (43.57) August 1,940.26 1,151.49 1,044.47 (9.29) (46.17) September 1,946.00 1,130.30 1,037.90 (8.17) (46.66) October 1,934.14 1,114.81 1,044.79 (6.28) (45.98) November 1,849.09 1,100.35December 1,709.50 1,105.42Annual Ave. 1,612.91 1,216.54

AMMOPHOSJan.-Oct. Ave. 1,537.16 1,138.53 950.08 (16.55) (38.19) January 914.52 1,393.36 975.46 (29.99) 6.66 February 980.36 1,232.89 963.11 (21.88) (1.76) March 1,158.73 1,196.93 966.01 (19.29) (16.63) April 1,398.97 1,180.75 976.06 (17.34) (30.23) May 1,629.78 1,153.96 971.19 (15.84) (40.41) June 1,807.08 1,116.42 959.59 (14.05) (46.90) July 1,854.66 1,070.31 932.95 (12.83) (49.70) August 1,876.88 1,039.67 914.34 (12.05) (51.28) September 1,880.66 1,009.78 915.07 (9.38) (51.34) October 1,869.98 991.22 927.03 (6.48) (50.43) November 1,779.18 972.00 December 1,624.11 975.70 Annual Ave. 1,564.58 1,111.08

Percent ChangeGRADE 2008 2009

(Peso/bag @ 50 kg./bag)

2010

3.58 3.61 3.63 3.66 3.68 3.71 3.73 3.76 3.78 3.81 3.83

1,250 1,325 1,400 1,475 1,550 1,625 1,700 1,775 1,850 1,925 2,000

2008 2009 2010

Figure 3. Palay Area Harvested and Yield, Philippines,January-June 2008-2010 Estimates

Area Yield

Are

aH

arv

es

ted

('0

00

Ha

)

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

2 29 Table 16. Corn: Monthly average prices, by type, by market level,

Philippines, 2008-2010

January–June 2010 Crop The country’s production in the first semester of 2010 was 6.62 million

MT, 10.2% lower than last year’s level of 7.38 million MT. This was attributed to the decrease in harvest area by 6.5% or from 1.95 million hectares in 2009 to 1.82 million hectares this year. Yield also declined from 3.79 MT per hectare to 3.64 MT per hectare.

Cagayan Valley incurred

the biggest drop in production at 285 thousand MT or by 23.5% from last year’s level of 1.22 million MT. Harvest area decreased from 293 thousand hectares to 264.4 thousand hectares. Yield per hectare declined from 4.15 MT to 3.52 MT. This was followed by Western Visayas which recorded a drop in production of 240.66 thousand MT or by 32.8% from last year’s record of 734.81 thousand MT. Harvest area was reduced by 28.5%, from 234.48 thousand hectares last year to 167.63 thousand hectares this year. Yield per hectare declined from 3.13 MT to 2.95 MT.

6,6217,121 7,376

-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

2008 2009 2010

Figure 2. Palay Production, Philippines, January-June 2008-2010 Estimates

Jan-Mar Apr-June

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

2010/2009 2010/2008

FARMGATE - YellowJan.-Oct. Ave. 10.71 10.90 10.93 0.27 2.04

January 10.24 12.91 10.13 (21.53) (1.07) February 10.60 13.55 10.82 (20.15) 2.08 March 10.84 12.38 11.40 (7.92) 5.17 April 11.04 12.07 11.30 (6.38) 2.36 May 10.74 11.51 11.02 (4.26) 2.61 June 11.04 10.35 11.40 10.14 3.26 July 10.79 10.05 11.31 12.54 4.82 August 10.51 8.99 10.96 21.91 4.28 September 10.45 8.49 10.38 22.26 (0.67) October 10.84 8.68 10.55 21.54 (2.68) November 11.28 9.49 December 11.71 9.71 Annual Ave. 10.84 10.68

FARMGATE - WhiteJan.-Oct. Ave. 12.37 13.83 12.21 (11.73) (1.33) January 10.15 14.51 13.70 (5.58) 34.98 February 10.77 16.06 13.46 (16.19) 24.98 March 11.55 16.66 13.71 (17.71) 18.70 April 13.09 16.38 13.41 (18.13) 2.44 May 13.81 14.58 12.70 (12.89) (8.04) June 14.85 13.44 12.62 (6.10) (15.02)July 13.12 13.24 12.07 (8.84) (8.00) August 11.97 11.06 10.53 (4.79) (12.03)September 12.02 10.74 9.95 (7.36) (17.22)October 12.40 11.65 9.94 (14.68) (19.84)November 12.53 12.22 December 12.77 12.16 Annual Ave. 12.42 13.56

WHOLESALE - YellowJan.-Oct. Ave. 13.01 14.05 14.27 1.56 9.68 January 12.70 15.25 13.29 (12.85) 4.65 February 12.77 16.19 14.13 (12.72) 10.65 March 13.00 15.14 14.32 (5.42) 10.15 April 13.25 15.05 14.22 (5.51) 7.32 May 13.26 14.40 14.36 (0.28) 8.30 June 13.42 13.90 14.45 3.96 7.68 July 13.34 13.52 14.82 9.62 11.09 August 13.14 12.75 14.77 15.84 12.40 September 12.35 12.25 14.17 15.67 14.74 October 12.88 12.07 14.18 17.48 10.09 November 13.08 12.78 December 13.42 12.73 Annual Ave. 13.05 13.84

WHOLESALE-WhiteJan.-Oct. Ave. 13.50 16.24 15.21 (6.33) 12.61 January 11.73 15.46 16.88 9.18 43.90 February 12.14 16.67 16.85 1.08 38.80 March 12.63 16.91 17.25 2.01 36.58 April 13.57 17.19 15.66 (8.90) 15.40 May 14.24 16.91 13.94 (17.56) (2.11) June 14.86 16.22 14.50 (10.60) (2.42) July 14.60 16.03 14.83 (7.49) 1.58 August 12.68 15.16 14.66 (3.30) 15.62 September 13.72 15.96 13.87 (13.10) 1.09 October 14.87 15.84 13.63 (13.95) (8.34) November 14.76 16.17 December 14.69 16.34 Annual Ave. 13.71 16.24

RETAIL - YellowJan.-Oct. Ave. 18.04 20.17 19.31 (4.24) 7.09

January 17.72 20.24 18.74 (7.41) 5.76 February 17.83 22.12 19.98 (9.67) 12.06 March 17.94 21.67 19.32 (10.84) 7.69 April 18.30 21.25 19.39 (8.75) 5.96 May 17.71 20.50 19.63 (4.24) 10.84 June 17.81 20.44 19.59 (4.16) 9.99 July 18.23 19.87 19.33 (2.72) 6.03 August 18.70 18.81 19.27 2.45 3.05 September 18.06 18.63 18.92 1.56 4.76 October 18.05 18.16 18.96 4.41 5.04 November 18.39 18.51 December 18.20 18.58 Annual Ave. 18.08 19.90

RETAIL - WhiteJan.-Oct. Ave. 16.95 21.26 19.87 (6.55) 17.23 January 15.22 22.50 22.67 0.76 48.95 February 15.56 22.49 22.73 1.07 46.08 March 15.59 23.35 21.93 (6.08) 40.67 April 16.42 23.79 20.14 (15.34) 22.66 May 16.57 20.08 20.13 0.25 21.48 June 18.06 20.16 19.54 (3.08) 8.19 July 19.32 19.98 17.72 (11.31) (8.28) August 17.13 19.19 18.22 (5.05) 6.36 September 17.50 20.44 17.74 (13.21) 1.37 October 18.12 20.63 17.87 (13.38) (1.38) November 18.22 20.54 December 18.52 21.32 Annual Ave. 17.19 21.21

(Peso per kilogram)

MONTH 2008 2009 2010 Percent Change

9,4019,6958,890

750

2,250

3,750

5,250

6,750

8,250

9,750

2008 2009 2010

Figure 4. Palay Production, Philippines,July-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

Oct-Dec July-Sept

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

3.25

3.35

3.45

3.55

3.65

3.75

3.85

3.95

2,310

2,360

2,410

2,460

2,510

2,560

2,610

2008 2009 2010

Figure 5. Palay Harvest Area and Yield, Philippines, July-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

Area Yield

Ha

rve

st A

rea

('0

00

Ha

)

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

28 3 

The other regions that incurred large decreases in production were as follows: SOCCSKSARGEN, 92.12 thousand MT; CALABARZON, 59.89 thousand MT; MIMAROPA, 34.26 thousand MT; CAR, 31.36 thousand MT; Bicol, 26.38 thousand MT; Northern Mindanao, 25.92 thousand MT and Zamboanga Peninsula, 19.1 thousand MT.

July-December 2010 Crop Production for July-December 2010 may surpass last year’s output by

5.8%, from 8.89 million MT to 9.40 million MT. This can be attributed to the improvement in yield by 7.3%, from 3.44 MT per hectare in 2009 to 3.69 MT per hectare this year. Harvest area however, may be lower by 1.5%, from 2.59 million hectares to 2.55 million hectares. The July-September 2010 production was 2.65 million MT, 24.8% below the 2009 level of 3.52 million MT. Harvest area decreased by 27.7% from 975.9 thousand hectares. However, yield per hectare improved from 3.61 MT to 3.75 MT. The decrease in harvest area was attributed to the movement of cropping from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter due to delayed onset of rainfall. This was highly observed in Western Visayas, Cagayan Valley, MIMAROPA and Bicol where harvest areas were reduced from 31.9% to 67.4%

Table 15. Palay/Rice: Monthly average prices, by type, by market level, Philippines, and Metro Manila, 2008-2010

2010/2009 2010/2008PHILIPPINESFARMGATE

Jan.-Oct. Ave. 14.54 15.14 15.47 2.18 6.37 January 11.77 14.09 15.23 8.09 29.40 February 12.05 15.49 15.77 1.81 30.87 March 13.02 16.03 16.19 1.00 24.35 April 15.56 15.94 15.51 (2.70) (0.32) May 16.00 15.92 15.34 (3.64) (4.13) June 18.18 15.63 15.50 (0.83) (14.74) July 17.08 15.33 15.59 1.70 (8.72) August 14.92 14.71 15.67 6.53 5.03 September 13.57 14.15 15.28 7.99 12.60 October 13.26 14.08 14.59 3.62 10.03 November 13.19 14.43 December 13.55 14.56 Annual Ave. 14.35 15.03

WHOLESALEJan.-Oct. Ave. 30.06 31.24 31.56 1.01 4.98 January 23.67 29.56 31.27 5.78 32.11 February 24.00 31.54 31.73 0.60 32.21 March 25.60 32.00 31.99 (0.03) 24.96 April 30.18 31.77 31.58 (0.60) 4.64 May 31.38 31.87 31.38 (1.54) - June 36.67 31.79 31.60 (0.60) (13.83) July 35.50 31.63 31.74 0.35 (10.59) August 33.10 31.19 31.69 1.60 (4.26) September 30.66 30.62 31.48 2.81 2.67 October 29.84 30.46 31.12 2.17 4.29 November 28.98 30.80 December 28.83 30.81 Annual Ave. 29.87 31.17

RETAILJan.-Oct. Ave. 32.73 34.16 34.37 0.61 4.99 January 25.84 32.89 34.20 3.98 32.35 February 26.08 34.33 34.46 0.38 32.13 March 27.57 34.62 34.59 (0.09) 25.46 April 32.20 34.53 34.40 (0.38) 6.83 May 33.69 34.51 34.09 (1.22) 1.19 June 38.37 34.55 34.40 (0.43) (10.35) July 38.76 34.44 34.46 0.06 (11.09) August 36.70 34.25 34.47 0.64 (6.08) September 34.59 33.83 34.40 1.68 (0.55) October 33.54 33.63 34.19 1.67 1.94 November 32.65 33.89 December 32.52 33.99 Annual Ave. 32.71 34.12

METRO MANILAWHOLESALE

Jan.-Oct. Ave. 30.70 30.02 30.76 2.44 0.18 January 23.88 29.35 31.22 6.37 30.74 February 24.03 31.38 31.22 (0.51) 29.92 March 27.75 31.38 30.91 (1.50) 11.39 April 32.24 30.30 30.60 0.99 (5.09) May 32.40 30.20 30.60 1.32 (5.56) June 36.67 29.59 30.60 3.41 (16.55) July 36.12 29.35 30.60 4.26 (15.28) August 33.87 28.98 30.60 5.59 (9.65) September 30.46 28.98 30.60 5.59 0.46 October 29.59 30.70 30.60 (0.33) 3.41 November 29.10 31.53 December 28.98 31.22 Annual Ave. 30.42 30.25

RETAILJan.-Oct. Ave. 33.28 35.00 35.00 - 5.18 January 26.00 35.00 35.00 - 34.62 February 26.00 35.00 35.00 - 34.62 March 28.60 35.00 35.00 - 22.38 April 34.00 35.00 35.00 - 2.94 May 34.25 35.00 35.00 - 2.19 June 38.40 35.00 35.00 - (8.85) July 38.50 35.00 35.00 - (9.09) August 37.00 35.00 35.00 - (5.41) September 35.00 35.00 35.00 - - October 35.00 35.00 35.00 - - November 35.00 35.00 December 35.00 35.00 Annual Ave. 33.56 35.00

2010 Percent Change(Peso per kilogram)

MONTH 2008 2009

3,9413,492

4,053

1,099 1,024 1,134

3.32

3.40

3.48

3.56

3.64

3.72

100 600

1,100 1,600 2,100 2,600 3,100 3,600 4,100

2009 2010 2011

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)H

arv

es

t Are

a (

'00

0 H

a)

Figure 6. PALAY: Production, Area and Yield, Philippines, January-March 2011 Forecast and 2009-2010 Estimates

Production Area Yield

4 27 

Table 13. Percentage change in the inventory of rice stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009-2010

Table 14. Percentage change in the inventory of corn stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009-2010

Based on standing crop, the October-December 2010 palay output would increase by 25.8% from last year’s level of 5.37 million MT to 6.75 million MT. Harvest area may expand by 14.4%, from 1.61 million hectares to 1.84 million hectares. Yield may increase by 10.0%, from 3.33 MT per hectare to 3.67 MT per hectare.

January-March 2011 Crop Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the January-March 2011

production and area are expected to surpass last year’s levels by 16.1% and 10.8%, respectively. Yield may improve by 4.8%.

Palay output in Cagayan Valley and Western Visayas are expected to

surpass last year’s levels by 66.2% (244.53 thousand MT) and 44.3% (186.80 thousand MT), respectively. Probable harvest areas in these regions would increase by at least 36.0% each compared to last year’s level. This is due to the movement of cropping that may extend harvesting up to the first quarter of 2011.

Oct. 2010/ Oct. 2010/Sep. 2010 Oct. 2009

TOTAL STOCKS 3.9 26.8 Household 23.9 (6.7) Commercial 26.9 16.1 NFA (6.6) 52.5

ITEM

Oct. 2010/ Oct. 2010/Sep. 2010 Oct. 2009

TOTAL STOCKS 1/ 22.1 (2.4) Household 23.7 35.7 Commercial 25.0 (28.1) NFA (43.7) (85.0) 1/ Excludes corn stocks held by commercial livestock and poultry producers and corn mixed in feedstock.

ITEM

2008 2009 2010July-Dec 3,635 3,816 3,935 Jan-June 3,293 3,218 2,415

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

Figure 7. Corn Production, Philippines, January-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

6,3516,928 7,034

2,415

3,293 3,218

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2008 2009 2010

Figure 8. Corn Production, Philippines,January-June 2008-2010 Estimates

Apr-June Jan-Mar

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

26 5  1.2 CORN

Calendar Year 2010 Forecast Total corn production for calendar year 2010 is forecast at 6.35 million

MT, 9.7% lower than the 2009 output of 7.03 million MT. This is due to the adverse effects of the El Niño phenomenon that resulted in the contraction of harvest area by 6.7%, 2.68 million hectares in 2009 to 2.50 million hectares this year. Yield per hectare declined by 3.2%.

January–June 2010 Crop The adverse effects of

the El Niño phenomenon brought about a 25.0% reduction of the 1st semester corn production to 2.42 million MT from last year’s level of 3.22 million MT. Harvest area also decreased by 14.5% from last year’s 1.13 million hectares. Similarly, yield declined by 12.3%.

Table 12. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011

2011

Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 1,986,172 1,602,262 1,924,900 383,910 23.96 (322,638) (16.76) CAR 76,225 47,017 76,490 29,208 62.12 (29,473) (38.53) Ilocos 245,592 243,467 242,528 2,125 0.87 939 0.39 Cagayan Valley 505,372 326,177 465,951 179,195 54.94 (139,774) (30.00) Central Luzon 78,014 86,598 91,494 (8,584) (9.91) (4,896) (5.35) Calabarzon 12,243 7,080 12,043 5,163 72.92 (4,963) (41.21) Mimaropa 17,562 15,398 23,626 2,164 14.05 (8,228) (34.83) Bicol 44,939 37,330 41,593 7,609 20.38 (4,263) (10.25) Western Visayas 92,958 60,475 98,659 32,483 53.71 (38,184) (38.70) Central Visayas 25,331 23,489 27,570 1,842 7.84 (4,081) (14.80) Eastern Visayas 13,898 11,755 13,732 2,143 18.23 (1,977) (14.40) Zamboanga Peninsula 33,817 29,998 32,514 3,819 12.73 (2,516) (7.74) Northern Mindanao 296,423 273,465 297,501 22,958 8.40 (24,036) (8.08) Davao Region 35,698 35,501 34,774 197 0.55 727 2.09 SOCCSKSARGEN 248,624 203,117 251,345 45,507 22.40 (48,228) (19.19) Caraga 2,787 460 505 2,327 505.87 (45) (8.91) ARMM 256,689 200,935 214,575 55,754 27.75 (13,640) (6.36)

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 692,113 638,731 675,228 53,382 8.36 (36,497) (5.41) CAR 19,538 14,841 19,938 4,697 31.65 (5,097) (25.56) Ilocos 48,334 48,744 47,493 (410) (0.84) 1,251 2.63 Cagayan Valley 127,305 119,993 126,821 7,312 6.09 (6,828) (5.38) Central Luzon 16,456 18,324 18,148 (1,868) (10.19) 176 0.97 Calabarzon 5,927 5,126 6,322 801 15.63 (1,196) (18.92) Mimaropa 5,049 4,771 6,473 278 5.83 (1,702) (26.29) Bicol 29,609 22,022 26,479 7,587 34.45 (4,457) (16.83) Western Visayas 36,784 29,206 39,094 7,578 25.95 (9,888) (25.29) Central Visayas 39,543 40,723 41,154 (1,180) (2.90) (431) (1.05) Eastern Visayas 8,990 7,908 10,012 1,082 13.68 (2,104) (21.01) Zamboanga Peninsula 22,617 22,859 19,667 (242) (1.06) 3,192 16.23 Northern Mindanao 110,191 107,217 108,036 2,974 2.77 (819) (0.76) Davao Region 28,003 28,977 28,194 (974) (3.36) 783 2.78 SOCCSKSARGEN 95,309 87,594 99,988 7,715 8.81 (12,394) (12.40) Caraga 1,551 376 475 1,175 312.50 (99) (20.84) ARMM 96,907 80,050 76,934 16,857 21.06 3,116 4.05

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 2.87 2.51 2.85 0.36 14.40 (0.34) (12.01) CAR 3.90 3.17 3.84 0.73 23.15 (0.67) (17.42) Ilocos 5.08 4.99 5.11 0.09 1.73 (0.11) (2.19) Cagayan Valley 3.97 2.72 3.67 1.25 46.04 (0.96) (26.01) Central Luzon 4.74 4.73 5.04 0.01 0.31 (0.32) (6.26) Calabarzon 2.07 1.38 1.90 0.68 49.55 (0.52) (27.49) Mimaropa 3.48 3.23 3.65 0.25 7.77 (0.42) (11.58) Bicol 1.52 1.70 1.57 (0.18) (10.46) 0.12 7.92 Western Visayas 2.53 2.07 2.52 0.46 22.05 (0.45) (17.95) Central Visayas 0.64 0.58 0.67 0.06 11.06 (0.09) (13.90) Eastern Visayas 1.55 1.49 1.37 0.06 4.00 0.11 8.38 Zamboanga Peninsula 1.50 1.31 1.65 0.18 13.94 (0.34) (20.62) Northern Mindanao 2.69 2.55 2.75 0.14 5.47 (0.20) (7.38) Davao Region 1.27 1.23 1.23 0.05 4.05 (0.01) (0.67) SOCCSKSARGEN 2.61 2.32 2.51 0.29 12.50 (0.19) (7.75) Caraga 1.80 1.22 1.06 0.57 46.88 0.16 15.07 ARMM 2.65 2.51 2.79 0.14 5.53 (0.28) (10.00)

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.b/ Planting Intentions

JANUARY-MARCHREGION

2010 / 20092010 2009Change

Oct '10 b/ 2011 / 2010

3,635 3,816 3,935

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2008 2009 2010

Figure 10. Corn Production, Philippines,July-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

Oct-Dec July-Sept

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

6 25 

2.32

2.42

2.52

2.62

2.72

2.82

2.92

3.02

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

2008 2009 2010

Figure 9. Corn Area Harvested and Yield, Philippines, January-June 2008-2010 Estimates

Area Yield

Are

aH

arv

es

ted

('0

00

Ha

)

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

Table 11. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by semester, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010

Cagayan Valley and SOCCSKSARGEN were severely affected by the El Niño. Corn production in these regions decreased by 409.87 thousand MT and 137.65 thousand MT, respectively. Harvest areas were reduced by 60.9 thousand hectares in Cagayan Valley and by 37.56 thousand hectares in SOCCSKSARGEN.

July-December 2010 Crop Production for the July-December 2010 may surpass last year’s output

by 3.2%, from 3.82 million MT to 3.94 million MT. This could be attributed to the improvement in yield by 4.3%, from 2.46 MT per hectare to 2.56 MT per hectare. The July-September 2010 corn production was 2.32 million MT, 2.3% below the 2009 level of 2.37 million MT. Notwithstanding the improvement in yield from 2.50 MT per hectare to 2.58 MT per hectare, harvest area decreased by 5.2%, from 949.18 thousand hectares to 900.10 thousand hectares. The prolonged dry spell resulted in the movement of cropping from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter in most of the regions.

Level % Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 2,415,163 3,218,062 (802,899) (24.95) 3,938,571 3,815,971 122,600 3.21 6,353,734 7,034,033 (680,299) (9.67) CAR 57,543 106,267 (48,724) (45.85) 115,107 95,506 19,601 20.52 172,650 201,773 (29,123) (14.43) Ilocos 344,417 332,573 11,844 3.56 14,177 18,530 (4,353) (23.49) 358,594 351,103 7,491 2.13 Cagayan Valley 397,417 807,290 (409,873) (50.77) 863,640 790,908 72,732 9.20 1,261,057 1,598,198 (337,141) (21.10) Central Luzon 174,393 189,202 (14,809) (7.83) 24,188 28,043 (3,855) (13.75) 198,581 217,245 (18,664) (8.59) Calabarzon 9,320 20,606 (11,286) (54.77) 49,156 31,343 17,813 56.83 58,476 51,949 6,527 12.56 Mimaropa 42,633 59,512 (16,879) (28.36) 24,861 44,394 (19,533) (44.00) 67,494 103,906 (36,412) (35.04) Bicol 79,634 104,982 (25,348) (24.15) 96,580 92,134 4,446 4.83 176,214 197,116 (20,902) (10.60) Western Visayas 79,473 137,504 (58,031) (42.20) 166,672 135,340 31,332 23.15 246,145 272,844 (26,699) (9.79) Central Visayas 26,280 34,096 (7,816) (22.92) 150,563 152,383 (1,820) (1.19) 176,843 186,479 (9,636) (5.17) Eastern Visayas 45,815 47,624 (1,809) (3.80) 44,512 47,197 (2,685) (5.69) 90,327 94,821 (4,494) (4.74) Zamboanga Peninsula 35,726 54,864 (19,138) (34.88) 157,526 122,384 35,142 28.71 193,252 177,248 16,004 9.03 Northern Mindanao 323,319 378,618 (55,299) (14.61) 816,972 792,006 24,966 3.15 1,140,291 1,170,624 (30,333) (2.59) Davao Region 67,203 86,530 (19,327) (22.34) 131,803 138,548 (6,745) (4.87) 199,006 225,078 (26,072) (11.58) SOCCSKSARGEN 324,756 462,401 (137,645) (29.77) 737,480 684,228 53,252 7.78 1,062,236 1,146,629 (84,393) (7.36) Caraga 27,866 6,650 21,216 319.04 66,640 81,941 (15,301) (18.67) 94,506 88,591 5,915 6.68 ARMM 379,368 389,343 (9,975) (2.56) 478,694 561,086 (82,392) (14.68) 858,062 950,429 (92,367) (9.72)

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 966,965 1,130,587 (163,622) (14.47) 1,537,168 1,553,303 (16,135) (1.04) 2,504,133 2,683,890 (179,757) (6.70) CAR 17,798 26,918 (9,120) (33.88) 31,193 28,294 2,899 10.25 48,991 55,212 (6,221) (11.27) Ilocos 71,012 66,903 4,109 6.14 4,314 6,250 (1,936) (30.98) 75,326 73,153 2,173 2.97 Cagayan Valley 150,044 210,955 (60,911) (28.87) 214,416 206,166 8,250 4.00 364,460 417,121 (52,661) (12.62) Central Luzon 35,587 37,581 (1,994) (5.31) 7,496 8,168 (672) (8.23) 43,083 45,749 (2,666) (5.83) Calabarzon 6,807 11,426 (4,619) (40.43) 22,880 23,778 (898) (3.78) 29,687 35,204 (5,517) (15.67) Mimaropa 12,527 15,455 (2,928) (18.95) 10,457 15,912 (5,455) (34.28) 22,984 31,367 (8,383) (26.73) Bicol 45,195 51,550 (6,355) (12.33) 56,617 55,165 1,452 2.63 101,812 106,715 (4,903) (4.59) Western Visayas 39,582 56,378 (16,796) (29.79) 72,474 69,391 3,083 4.44 112,056 125,769 (13,713) (10.90) Central Visayas 47,354 52,490 (5,136) (9.78) 168,626 178,983 (10,357) (5.79) 215,980 231,473 (15,493) (6.69) Eastern Visayas 31,310 32,886 (1,576) (4.79) 33,362 35,577 (2,215) (6.23) 64,672 68,463 (3,791) (5.54) Zamboanga Peninsula 26,767 35,806 (9,039) (25.24) 115,901 100,044 15,857 15.85 142,668 135,850 6,818 5.02 Northern Mindanao 130,124 137,565 (7,441) (5.41) 239,890 243,808 (3,918) (1.61) 370,014 381,373 (11,359) (2.98) Davao Region 55,955 68,351 (12,396) (18.14) 97,834 106,323 (8,489) (7.98) 153,789 174,674 (20,885) (11.96) SOCCSKSARGEN 136,780 174,337 (37,557) (21.54) 269,901 255,845 14,056 5.49 406,681 430,182 (23,501) (5.46) Caraga 11,025 4,139 6,886 166.37 28,576 35,381 (6,805) (19.23) 39,601 39,520 81 0.20 ARMM 149,098 147,847 1,251 0.85 163,231 184,218 (20,987) (11.39) 312,329 332,065 (19,736) (5.94)

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 2.50 2.85 (0.35) (12.25) 2.56 2.46 0.11 4.30 2.54 2.62 (0.08) (3.19) CAR 3.23 3.95 (0.71) (18.10) 3.69 3.38 0.31 9.32 3.52 3.65 (0.13) (3.57) Ilocos 4.85 4.97 (0.12) (2.43) 3.29 2.96 0.32 10.84 4.76 4.80 (0.04) (0.81) Cagayan Valley 2.65 3.83 (1.18) (30.79) 4.03 3.84 0.19 4.99 3.46 3.83 (0.37) (9.69) Central Luzon 4.90 5.03 (0.13) (2.66) 3.23 3.43 (0.21) (6.01) 4.61 4.75 (0.14) (2.93) Calabarzon 1.37 1.80 (0.43) (24.08) 2.15 1.32 0.83 62.99 1.97 1.48 0.49 33.48 Mimaropa 3.40 3.85 (0.45) (11.62) 2.38 2.79 (0.41) (14.79) 2.94 3.31 (0.38) (11.35) Bicol 1.76 2.04 (0.27) (13.48) 1.71 1.67 0.04 2.14 1.73 1.85 (0.12) (6.30) Western Visayas 2.01 2.44 (0.43) (17.68) 2.30 1.95 0.35 17.91 2.20 2.17 0.03 1.25 Central Visayas 0.55 0.65 (0.09) (14.56) 0.89 0.85 0.04 4.87 0.82 0.81 0.01 1.64 Eastern Visayas 1.46 1.45 0.02 1.04 1.33 1.33 0.01 0.57 1.40 1.38 0.01 0.84 Zamboanga Peninsula 1.33 1.53 (0.20) (12.89) 1.36 1.22 0.14 11.10 1.35 1.30 0.05 3.82 Northern Mindanao 2.48 2.75 (0.27) (9.72) 3.41 3.25 0.16 4.84 3.08 3.07 0.01 0.40 Davao Region 1.20 1.27 (0.06) (5.13) 1.35 1.30 0.04 3.39 1.29 1.29 0.01 0.42 SOCCSKSARGEN 2.37 2.65 (0.28) (10.48) 2.73 2.67 0.06 2.17 2.61 2.67 (0.05) (2.01) Caraga 2.53 1.61 0.92 57.31 2.33 2.32 0.02 0.69 2.39 2.24 0.14 6.46 ARMM 2.54 2.63 (0.09) (3.38) 2.93 3.05 (0.11) (3.72) 2.75 2.86 (0.11) (4.01)

Oct '10 / 2009Change

Oct '10 Rd

2010Oct '10 / 2009 2009

Change

Oct '10 Rd

20102009

Change2010 / 2009

REGION2009

JANUARY-DECEMBER

2010

JANUARY-JUNE JULY-DECEMBER

2.30

2.35

2.40

2.45

2.50

2.55

2.60

2.65

1,400

1,425

1,450

1,475

1,500

1,525

1,550

1,575

2008 2009 2010

Figure 11. Corn Harvest Area and Yield, Philippines,July-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

Area Yield

Ha

rve

stA

rea

('0

00

Ha

)

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

1,925

1,602

1,986

675 639 692

2.43 2.51 2.59 2.67 2.75 2.83 2.91 2.99 3.07

100 350 600 850

1,100 1,350 1,600 1,850 2,100

2009 2010 2011

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)H

arv

es

t A

rea

('0

00

Ha

)

Figure 12. CORN: Production, Area and Yield, Philippines,January-March 2011 Forecast and 2009-2010 Estimates

Production Area Yield

24 7 

The standing corn crop for the October-December 2010 points to a production gain of 12.2% from last year’s level of 1.44 million MT to 1.62 million MT. Expected harvest area may expand by 5.5%, from 604 thousand hectares to 637 thousand hectares. Yield may improve by 6.4%, from 2.39 MT per hectare to 2.54 MT per hectare.

A remarkable increase in corn output is expected in Cagayan Valley by 58.0% or 89.11 thousand MT as harvest area may expand by 33.2% or 14.90 thousand hectares. Also in Northern Mindanao, corn output would increase by 19.8% or 60.92 thousand MT. This would come from the expansion in harvest area by 8.0% or 8.1 thousand hectares.

January-March 2011 Crop Based on farmers’ planting

intentions, the January-March 2011 production, area and yield are expected to be higher than the 1st quarter 2010 levels by 24.0%, 8.4%, and 14.4%, respectively.

Table 10. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010

 

Level % Level % Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 1,602,262 1,924,900 (322,638) (16.76) 812,901 1,293,162 (480,261) (37.14) 2,315,279 2,372,571 (57,292) (2.41) 1,620,113 1,443,400 176,713 12.24 CAR 47,017 76,490 (29,473) (38.53) 10,526 29,777 (19,251) (64.65) 92,471 76,641 15,830 20.65 22,636 18,865 3,771 19.99 Ilocos 243,467 242,528 939 0.39 100,950 90,045 10,905 12.11 8,039 12,851 (4,812) (37.44) 6,138 5,679 459 8.08 Cagayan Valley 326,177 465,951 (139,774) (30.00) 71,240 341,339 (270,099) (79.13) 620,946 637,322 (16,376) (2.57) 242,694 153,586 89,108 58.02 Central Luzon 86,598 91,494 (4,896) (5.35) 87,795 97,708 (9,913) (10.15) 12,924 16,933 (4,009) (23.68) 8,085 11,110 (3,025) (27.23) Calabarzon 7,080 12,043 (4,963) (41.21) 2,240 8,563 (6,323) (73.84) 28,348 21,127 7,221 34.18 20,808 10,216 10,592 103.68 Mimaropa 15,398 23,626 (8,228) (34.83) 27,235 35,886 (8,651) (24.11) 18,283 39,425 (21,142) (53.63) 6,578 4,969 1,609 32.38 Bicol 37,330 41,593 (4,263) (10.25) 42,304 63,389 (21,085) (33.26) 38,241 60,791 (22,550) (37.09) 58,339 31,343 26,996 86.13 Western Visayas 60,475 98,659 (38,184) (38.70) 18,998 38,845 (19,847) (51.09) 89,616 98,292 (8,676) (8.83) 77,056 37,048 40,008 107.99 Central Visayas 23,489 27,570 (4,081) (14.80) 2,791 6,526 (3,735) (57.23) 105,035 112,332 (7,297) (6.50) 45,528 40,051 5,477 13.68 Eastern Visayas 11,755 13,732 (1,977) (14.40) 34,060 33,892 168 0.50 20,556 22,786 (2,230) (9.79) 23,956 24,411 (455) (1.86) Zamboanga Peninsula 29,998 32,514 (2,516) (7.74) 5,728 22,350 (16,622) (74.37) 96,004 64,715 31,289 48.35 61,522 57,669 3,853 6.68 Northern Mindanao 273,465 297,501 (24,036) (8.08) 49,854 81,117 (31,263) (38.54) 448,340 484,290 (35,950) (7.42) 368,632 307,716 60,916 19.80 Davao Region 35,501 34,774 727 2.09 31,702 51,756 (20,054) (38.75) 67,573 68,381 (808) (1.18) 64,230 70,167 (5,937) (8.46) SOCCSKSARGEN 203,117 251,345 (48,228) (19.19) 121,639 211,056 (89,417) (42.37) 384,722 348,348 36,374 10.44 352,758 335,880 16,878 5.03 Caraga 460 505 (45) (8.91) 27,406 6,145 21,261 345.99 19,873 42,859 (22,986) (53.63) 46,767 39,082 7,685 19.66 ARMM 200,935 214,575 (13,640) (6.36) 178,433 174,768 3,665 2.10 264,308 265,478 (1,170) (0.44) 214,386 295,608 (81,222) (27.48)

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 638,731 675,228 (36,497) (5.41) 328,234 455,359 (127,125) (27.92) 899,402 949,175 (49,773) (5.24) 637,101 604,128 32,973 5.46 CAR 14,841 19,938 (5,097) (25.56) 2,957 6,980 (4,023) (57.64) 25,643 22,881 2,762 12.07 5,550 5,413 137 2.53 Ilocos 48,744 47,493 1,251 2.63 22,268 19,410 2,858 14.72 2,552 4,476 (1,924) (42.98) 1,762 1,774 (12) (0.68) Cagayan Valley 119,993 126,821 (6,828) (5.38) 30,051 84,134 (54,083) (64.28) 154,585 161,230 (6,645) (4.12) 59,831 44,936 14,895 33.15 Central Luzon 18,324 18,148 176 0.97 17,263 19,433 (2,170) (11.17) 4,592 5,538 (946) (17.08) 2,239 2,630 (391) (14.87) Calabarzon 5,126 6,322 (1,196) (18.92) 1,681 5,104 (3,423) (67.07) 12,242 16,249 (4,007) (24.66) 10,638 7,529 3,109 41.29 Mimaropa 4,771 6,473 (1,702) (26.29) 7,756 8,982 (1,226) (13.65) 7,069 13,221 (6,152) (46.53) 3,388 2,691 697 25.90 Bicol 22,022 26,479 (4,457) (16.83) 23,173 25,071 (1,898) (7.57) 25,534 41,395 (15,861) (38.32) 31,083 13,770 17,313 125.73 Western Visayas 29,206 39,094 (9,888) (25.29) 10,376 17,284 (6,908) (39.97) 45,115 48,063 (2,948) (6.13) 27,359 21,328 6,031 28.28 Central Visayas 40,723 41,154 (431) (1.05) 6,631 11,336 (4,705) (41.50) 115,011 123,082 (8,071) (6.56) 53,615 55,901 (2,286) (4.09) Eastern Visayas 7,908 10,012 (2,104) (21.01) 23,402 22,874 528 2.31 15,214 16,699 (1,485) (8.89) 18,148 18,878 (730) (3.87) Zamboanga Peninsula 22,859 19,667 3,192 16.23 3,908 16,139 (12,231) (75.79) 68,684 60,048 8,636 14.38 47,217 39,996 7,221 18.05 Northern Mindanao 107,217 108,036 (819) (0.76) 22,907 29,529 (6,622) (22.43) 130,801 142,834 (12,033) (8.42) 109,089 100,974 8,115 8.04 Davao Region 28,977 28,194 783 2.78 26,978 40,157 (13,179) (32.82) 51,577 51,999 (422) (0.81) 46,257 54,324 (8,067) (14.85) SOCCSKSARGEN 87,594 99,988 (12,394) (12.40) 49,186 74,349 (25,163) (33.84) 140,766 135,398 5,368 3.96 129,135 120,447 8,688 7.21 Caraga 376 475 (99) (20.84) 10,649 3,664 6,985 190.64 8,704 17,334 (8,630) (49.79) 19,872 18,047 1,825 10.11 ARMM 80,050 76,934 3,116 4.05 69,048 70,913 (1,865) (2.63) 91,313 88,728 2,585 2.91 71,918 95,490 (23,572) (24.69)

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 2.51 2.85 (0.34) (12.01) 2.48 2.84 (0.36) (12.79) 2.57 2.50 0.07 2.99 2.54 2.39 0.15 6.43 CAR 3.17 3.84 (0.67) (17.42) 3.56 4.27 (0.71) (16.56) 3.61 3.35 0.26 7.66 4.08 3.49 0.59 17.03 Ilocos 4.99 5.11 (0.11) (2.19) 4.53 4.64 (0.11) (2.28) 3.15 2.87 0.28 9.72 3.48 3.20 0.28 8.82 Cagayan Valley 2.72 3.67 (0.96) (26.01) 2.37 4.06 (1.69) (41.57) 4.02 3.95 0.06 1.62 4.06 3.42 0.64 18.68 Central Luzon 4.73 5.04 (0.32) (6.26) 5.09 5.03 0.06 1.15 2.81 3.06 (0.24) (7.95) 3.61 4.22 (0.61) (14.52) Calabarzon 1.38 1.90 (0.52) (27.49) 1.33 1.68 (0.35) (20.57) 2.32 1.30 1.02 78.10 1.96 1.36 0.60 44.15 Mimaropa 3.23 3.65 (0.42) (11.58) 3.51 4.00 (0.48) (12.11) 2.59 2.98 (0.40) (13.27) 1.94 1.85 0.10 5.15 Bicol 1.70 1.57 0.12 7.92 1.83 2.53 (0.70) (27.80) 1.50 1.47 0.03 1.98 1.88 2.28 (0.40) (17.54) Western Visayas 2.07 2.52 (0.45) (17.95) 1.83 2.25 (0.42) (18.53) 1.99 2.05 (0.06) (2.87) 2.82 1.74 1.08 62.14 Central Visayas 0.58 0.67 (0.09) (13.90) 0.42 0.58 (0.15) (26.89) 0.91 0.91 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.72 0.13 18.52 Eastern Visayas 1.49 1.37 0.11 8.38 1.46 1.48 (0.03) (1.77) 1.35 1.36 (0.01) (0.98) 1.32 1.29 0.03 2.08 Zamboanga Peninsula 1.31 1.65 (0.34) (20.62) 1.47 1.38 0.08 5.84 1.40 1.08 0.32 29.70 1.30 1.44 (0.14) (9.63) Northern Mindanao 2.55 2.75 (0.20) (7.38) 2.18 2.75 (0.57) (20.77) 3.43 3.39 0.04 1.09 3.38 3.05 0.33 10.88 Davao Region 1.23 1.23 (0.01) (0.67) 1.18 1.29 (0.11) (8.82) 1.31 1.32 (0.00) (0.37) 1.39 1.29 0.10 7.50 SOCCSKSARGEN 2.32 2.51 (0.19) (7.75) 2.47 2.84 (0.37) (12.88) 2.73 2.57 0.16 6.23 2.73 2.79 (0.06) (2.04) Caraga 1.22 1.06 0.16 15.07 2.57 1.68 0.90 53.45 2.28 2.47 (0.19) (7.66) 2.35 2.17 0.19 8.67 ARMM 2.51 2.79 (0.28) (10.00) 2.58 2.46 0.12 4.85 2.89 2.99 (0.10) (3.26) 2.98 3.10 (0.11) (3.71)

2010Oct '10 / 2009

ChangeOCTOBER-DECEMBER

2009

JULY-SEPTEMBER

2009Oct '10 Rd a/

APRIL-JUNE

2009Change

2010 / 20092010

JANUARY-MARCH

2010 / 2009REGION

2009Change

2010 Oct '10 Rd Oct '10 / 20092010 Change

8 23 

Table 9. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by croptype, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011

Planting intentions in Cagayan Valley, Western Visayas and

SOCCSKSARGEN increased in anticipation of more favorable weather conditions due to the onset of rainfall. Expected corn output in these regions would grow by 54.9%, 53.7% and 22.4%, respectively. The probable harvest areas would expand by 6.0% to 26.0%.

Harvest area in ARMM would expand by 21.1% or 16.86 thousand

hectares due to cropping movement in Maguindanao and utilization of some areas that are left in fallow in Lanao Del Sur.

2.0 Rice and Corn Stocks

2.1 Rice Stock The October 1, 2010 total rice stock inventory reached 3.15 million

metric tons. It surpassed last month’s level by 3.9 percent and last year’s record by 26.8 percent.

Comparative estimates with the stocks of last month showed significant

increases in the households by 23.9 percent and those in commercial warehouses by 26.9 percent. On the other hand, stocks in NFA depositories of which 85 percent were imported rice, dropped by 6.6 percent.

Compared to last year’s inventory levels, stocks in commercial sector went up by 16.1 percent and those in NFA depositories by 52.5 percent. In contrast, stocks in the households dropped by 6.7 percent.

Oct '10 Rd b/

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) 1,986 1,602 1,925 23.96 (16.76) White 534 454 490 17.54 (7.46) Yellow 1,453 1,148 1,434 26.50 (19.94)

AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) 692 639 675 8.36 (5.41) White 315 292 289 7.66 1.04 Yellow 377 346 386 8.94 (10.24)

YIELD/HECTARE (MT) 2.87 2.51 2.85 14.40 (12.01) White 1.69 1.55 1.69 9.17 (8.41) Yellow 3.85 3.32 3.72 16.12 (10.81)

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.b/Planting intention

ITEM2011

2010 2009 PERCENT CHANGE

Oct '10 / 2010 2010 / 2009

767.0 483.5

1,900.6

619.0 380.9

2,034.1

822.4

416.5

1,246.4

0300600900

1200150018002100

Household Commercial NFA

(in '000 mt)

Figure 13. Inventory of rice stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009 and 2010

October 2010 September 2010 October 2009

22 9  The October 1, 2010 total rice stocks would be enough for 93 days. Stocks

in NFA depositories would be good for 56 days, while those in the commercial sector would be good for 14 days. Household stocks would last for 23 days.

Around 24 percent of the current stocks were with the households, 16

percent with the commercial warehouses, and 60 percent with the NFA depositories.

2.2 Corn Stock

The total corn stock inventory as of October 1, 2010 was estimated at

354.0 thousand metric tons. This was 22.1 percent higher compared to last month’s volume, but 2.4 percent lower than last year’s level.

Compared to last month’s records, stocks in the household sector grew by

23.7 percent. In the commercial sector, inventory was higher by 25.0 percent. On the other hand, stocks in NFA depositories went down by 43.7 percent.

This month’s estimates showed stock drawdown by 28.1 percent in commercial warehouses and by 85.0 percent in NFA depositories compared to last year’s levels. However, stocks in the households grew by 35.7 percent.

Of this month’s total corn stocks, around 67 percent were with the

households, 31 percent with the commercial warehouses and 2 percent with the NFA depositories.

Table 8. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by croptype, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 6,354 7,034 6,928 (9.67) 1.53 White 2,157 2,316 2,255 (6.89) 2.74 Yellow 4,197 4,718 4,674 (11.04) 0.94 January-June 2,415 3,218 3,293 (24.95) (2.27) White 751 865 887 (13.24) (2.42) Yellow 1,664 2,353 2,406 (29.26) (2.21) January-March 1,602 1,925 1,993 (16.76) (3.41) White 454 490 482 (7.46) 1.71 Yellow 1,148 1,434 1,511 (19.94) (5.04) April-June 813 1,293 1,300 (37.14) (0.52) White 297 375 404 (20.80) (7.35) Yellow 516 918 895 (43.81) 2.56 July-December 3,939 3,816 3,635 3.21 4.96 White 1,406 1,451 1,368 (3.10) 6.09 Yellow 2,532 2,365 2,268 7.09 4.28 July-September 2,318 2,373 2,256 (2.28) 5.17 White 848 830 782 2.17 6.12 Yellow 1,470 1,542 1,473 (4.67) 4.67 October-December 1,620 a/ 1,443 1,380 12.24 4.62 White 558 621 585 (10.15) 6.06 Yellow 1,062 823 794 29.14 3.56 AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) JANUARY-DECEMBER 2,504 2,684 2,661 (6.70) 0.86 White 1,339 1,403 1,367 (4.56) 2.59 Yellow 1,165 1,281 1,294 (9.04) (0.97) January-June 967 1,131 1,137 (14.47) (0.55) White 467 506 509 (7.78) (0.54) Yellow 500 624 628 (19.90) (0.56) January-March 639 675 678 (5.41) (0.37) White 292 289 287 1.04 0.68 Yellow 346 386 390 (10.24) (1.15) April-June 328 455 459 (27.92) (0.81) White 175 217 222 (19.55) (2.12) Yellow 154 238 237 (35.53) 0.42 July-December 1,537 1,553 1,524 (1.04) 1.91 White 872 896 858 (2.74) 4.45 Yellow 665 657 666 1.28 (1.36) July-September 900 949 921 (5.17) 3.10 White 521 534 495 (2.49) 7.78 Yellow 380 415 425 (8.63) (2.34) October-December 637 a/ 604 604 5.46 0.09 White 351 363 363 (3.11) (0.09) Yellow 286 241 241 18.32 0.36 YIELD/HECTARE (MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 2.54 2.62 2.60 (3.19) 0.66 White 1.61 1.65 1.65 (2.44) 0.15 Yellow 3.60 3.68 3.61 (2.20) 1.93 January-June 2.50 2.85 2.90 (12.25) (1.73) White 1.61 1.71 1.74 (5.91) (1.89) Yellow 3.33 3.77 3.83 (11.68) (1.66) January-March 2.51 2.85 2.94 (12.01) (3.04) White 1.55 1.69 1.68 (8.41) 1.02 Yellow 3.32 3.72 3.87 (10.81) (3.93) April-June 2.48 2.84 2.83 (12.79) 0.29 White 1.70 1.73 1.82 (1.55) (5.34) Yellow 3.36 3.85 3.77 (12.83) 2.13 July-December 2.56 2.46 2.39 4.30 3.00 White 1.61 1.62 1.59 (0.38) 1.57 Yellow 3.81 3.60 3.41 5.74 5.72 July-September 2.58 2.50 2.45 3.05 2.01 White 1.63 1.56 1.58 4.77 (1.54) Yellow 3.87 3.71 3.46 4.33 7.18 October-December 2.54 a/ 2.39 2.29 6.43 4.53 White 1.59 1.71 1.61 (7.27) 6.16 Yellow 3.72 3.41 3.30 9.15 3.19

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.a/ Standing crop

Oct '10 RdITEM 2010 2009 2008 PERCENT CHANGE

Oct '10 / 2009 2009 / 2008

237.6

111.5

4.9

192.1

89.2

8.7

175.1 155.1

32.6

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

Household Commercial NFA

( in '000 mt)

Figure 14. Inventory of corn stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009 and 2010

October 2010 September 2010 October 2009

10 21 Table 7. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by semester,

Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010

3.0 Prices 3.1 Palay/Rice At the national level, average farmgate price of palay and wholesale and retail prices of rice from January to October 2010 were generally higher than their respective levels in 2008 and 2009.

The average farmgate price of palay for January to October 2010 was P15.47 per kilogram, P0.93 and P0.33 higher than the corresponding average prices in 2008 and 2009, respectively.

At wholesale, average price

of rice for January to October 2010 was registered at P31.56 per kilogram. This was P0.32 more than the average price in 2009 and P1.5 higher than the 2008 level.

This year’s average retail

price of rice for January to October 2010 was P34.37 per kilogram, 0.61% higher than last year’s price and 4.99% higher than the price in 2008. The highest price was noted in March at P34.59 per kilogram. This was 0.09% lower than the price of the same month last year.

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 6,354 7,034 6,928 (9.67) 1.53 January-June 2,415 3,218 3,293 (24.95) (2.27) January-March 1,602 1,925 1,993 (16.76) (3.41) April-June 813 1,293 1,300 (37.14) (0.52) July-December 3,939 3,816 3,635 3.21 4.96 July-September 2,318 2,373 2,256 (2.28) 5.17

October-December 1,620 a/ 1,443 1,380 12.24 4.62

AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) JANUARY-DECEMBER 2,504 2,684 2,661 (6.70) 0.86 January-June 967 1,131 1,137 (14.47) (0.55) January-March 639 675 678 (5.41) (0.37) April-June 328 455 459 (27.92) (0.81) July-December 1,537 1,553 1,524 (1.04) 1.91 July-September 900 949 921 (5.17) 3.10

October-December 637 a/ 604 604 5.46 0.09

YIELD/HECTARE JANUARY-DECEMBER 2.54 2.62 2.60 (3.19) 0.66 January-June 2.50 2.85 2.90 (12.25) (1.73) January-March 2.51 2.85 2.94 (12.01) (3.04) April-June 2.48 2.84 2.83 (12.79) 0.29 July-December 2.56 2.46 2.39 4.30 3.00 July-September 2.58 2.50 2.45 3.05 2.01

October-December 2.54 a/ 2.39 2.29 6.43 4.53

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.a/Standing crop

Oct '10 / 2009Oct '10 Rd 2009 / 2008 PERCENT CHANGE

ITEM2010

2009 2008

20.00 22.50 25.00 27.50 30.00 32.50 35.00 37.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 16. Rice: Monthly wholesale prices, Philipiines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

8.50 10.00 11.50 13.00 14.50 16.00 17.50 19.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 15. Palay: Monthly farmgate prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

22.00 24.50 27.00 29.50 32.00 34.50 37.00 39.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 17. Rice: Monthly retail prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

20 11  In Metro Manila, average

wholesale price of rice was P30.76 per kilogram during the period January to October 2010. This period’s average price was 2.44% or P0.74 higher than the 2009 level.

At retail, the average

monthly prices of rice in Metro Manila remained at P35.00 since September of 2008.

3.2 Corn The 10-month average farmgate and wholesale prices of yellow corn for this year were generally higher than the 2009 levels. However, average retail prices dropped by 4.24% or P0.86. White corngrain had lower average prices at all market levels for the 10-month period.

At farmgate, average price of yellow corngrain during the reference period was P10.93 per kilogram. This was P0.03 higher than the 2009 level and P0.22 higher than the 2008 level.

Average farmgate price of white corngrain from January to October 2010 dropped to P12.21 per kilogram from P13.83 last year and P12.37 in 2008. This was 11.73% or P1.62 lower than the 2009 average price and 1.33% or P0.16 lower than the average price in 2008.

Table 6. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January- March, 2009-2011

2011

Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 4,053,486 3,491,640 3,941,177 561,846 16.09 (449,537) (11.41) CAR 55,063 50,411 55,029 4,652 9.23 (4,618) (8.39) Ilocos 266,898 263,338 238,339 3,560 1.35 24,999 10.49 Cagayan Valley 613,755 369,221 551,589 244,534 66.23 (182,368) (33.06) Central Luzon 585,301 594,280 588,960 (8,979) (1.51) 5,320 0.90 Calabarzon 104,536 77,913 106,054 26,623 34.17 (28,141) (26.53) Mimaropa 224,100 190,448 171,405 33,652 17.67 19,043 11.11 Bicol 257,225 248,345 236,902 8,880 3.58 11,443 4.83 Western Visayas 608,878 422,074 547,355 186,804 44.26 (125,281) (22.89) Central Visayas 94,504 83,990 92,436 10,514 12.52 (8,446) (9.14) Eastern Visayas 282,451 253,772 274,321 28,679 11.30 (20,549) (7.49) Zamboanga Peninsula 144,518 128,228 151,725 16,290 12.70 (23,497) (15.49) Northern Mindanao 143,169 116,173 146,958 26,996 23.24 (30,785) (20.95) Davao Region 115,408 114,932 127,873 476 0.41 (12,941) (10.12) SOCCSKSARGEN 382,613 330,595 413,193 52,018 15.73 (82,598) (19.99) Caraga 48,797 33,386 51,629 15,411 46.16 (18,243) (35.33) ARMM 126,270 214,534 187,409 (88,264) (41.14) 27,125 14.47

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 1,133,792 1,023,685 1,098,893 110,107 10.76 (75,208) (6.84) CAR 13,806 13,637 13,012 169 1.24 625 4.80 Ilocos 64,178 64,156 57,378 22 0.03 6,778 11.81 Cagayan Valley 160,655 116,688 140,163 43,967 37.68 (23,475) (16.75) Central Luzon 121,467 121,858 121,632 (391) (0.32) 226 0.19 Calabarzon 27,839 24,554 28,728 3,285 13.38 (4,174) (14.53) Mimaropa 72,565 68,277 60,763 4,288 6.28 7,514 12.37 Bicol 81,082 81,338 73,863 (256) (0.31) 7,475 10.12 Western Visayas 195,725 143,117 177,991 52,608 36.76 (34,874) (19.59) Central Visayas 33,668 32,753 32,934 915 2.79 (181) (0.55) Eastern Visayas 87,095 81,283 85,382 5,812 7.15 (4,099) (4.80) Zamboanga Peninsula 40,192 37,199 42,306 2,993 8.05 (5,107) (12.07) Northern Mindanao 36,461 29,755 37,455 6,706 22.54 (7,700) (20.56) Davao Region 27,443 27,626 30,453 (183) (0.66) (2,827) (9.28) SOCCSKSARGEN 108,913 99,857 114,087 9,056 9.07 (14,230) (12.47) Caraga 15,285 9,767 18,491 5,518 56.50 (8,724) (47.18) ARMM 47,418 71,820 64,255 (24,402) (33.98) 7,565 11.77

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3.58 3.41 3.59 0.16 4.82 (0.18) (4.90) CAR 3.99 3.70 4.23 0.29 7.89 (0.53) (12.59) Ilocos 4.16 4.10 4.15 0.05 1.32 (0.05) (1.18) Cagayan Valley 3.82 3.16 3.94 0.66 20.74 (0.77) (19.60) Central Luzon 4.82 4.88 4.84 (0.06) (1.19) 0.03 0.72 Calabarzon 3.76 3.17 3.69 0.58 18.34 (0.52) (14.05) Mimaropa 3.09 2.79 2.82 0.30 10.72 (0.03) (1.12) Bicol 3.17 3.05 3.21 0.12 3.90 (0.15) (4.80) Western Visayas 3.11 2.95 3.08 0.16 5.48 (0.13) (4.10) Central Visayas 2.81 2.56 2.81 0.24 9.46 (0.24) (8.64) Eastern Visayas 3.24 3.12 3.21 0.12 3.87 (0.09) (2.83) Zamboanga Peninsula 3.60 3.45 3.59 0.15 4.31 (0.14) (3.88) Northern Mindanao 3.93 3.90 3.92 0.02 0.57 (0.02) (0.49) Davao Region 4.21 4.16 4.20 0.05 1.08 (0.04) (0.92) SOCCSKSARGEN 3.51 3.31 3.62 0.20 6.11 (0.31) (8.59) Caraga 3.19 3.42 2.79 (0.23) (6.60) 0.63 22.42 ARMM 2.66 2.99 2.92 (0.32) (10.85) 0.07 2.42 NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.b/ Planting Intentions

JANUARY-MARCHREGION

2011 / 2010Oct '10 b/ 2010 / 20092010 2009

Change

20.00 22.50 25.00 27.50 30.00 32.50 35.00 37.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 18. Rice: Monthly wholesale prices, Metro Manila, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

23.50 26.00 28.50 31.00 33.50 36.00 38.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 19. Rice: Monthly retail prices, Metro Manila, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

7.00 8.00 9.00

10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 20. Yellow Corn: Monthly farmgate prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 21. White Corn: Monthly farmgate prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

12 19 Table 5. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by semester, by region,

Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010

At wholesale, average price of yellow corn from January to October 2010 was P14.27 per kilogram. This year’s average price was higher than that of last year by 1.56% and 9.68% compared to the 2008 level.

The January to October

average wholesale price of white corn was P15.21 per kilogram, 6.33% or P1.03 lower than the 2009 level. Compared to same period of 2008, average price was higher by 12.61% or P1.71.

The 10-month average retail

price of yellow corn was P19.31. This was 4.24% or P0.86 lower than last year’s price but 7.09% or P1.27 higher than the average price in 2008.

The average retail price of

white corn from January to October 2010 was P19.87, 6.55% or P0.30 below last year’s average price of P20.17 but 17.23% or P2.92 higher than the 2008 level.

Level % Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 6,620,791 7,376,196 (755,405) (10.24) 9,401,034 8,890,221 510,813 5.75 16,021,825 16,266,417 (244,592) (1.50) CAR 159,436 190,793 (31,357) (16.44) 254,101 240,863 13,238 5.50 413,537 431,656 (18,119) (4.20) Ilocos 363,880 351,785 12,095 3.44 1,200,727 999,930 200,797 20.08 1,564,607 1,351,715 212,892 15.75 Cagayan Valley 930,999 1,216,342 (285,343) (23.46) 903,762 860,694 43,068 5.00 1,834,761 2,077,036 (242,275) (11.66) Central Luzon 1,464,445 1,439,237 25,208 1.75 1,648,415 1,366,230 282,185 20.65 3,112,860 2,805,467 307,393 10.96 Calabarzon 166,339 226,228 (59,889) (26.47) 223,632 156,807 66,825 42.62 389,971 383,035 6,936 1.81 Mimaropa 306,007 340,267 (34,260) (10.07) 568,259 590,407 (22,148) (3.75) 874,266 930,674 (56,408) (6.06) Bicol 485,154 511,530 (26,376) (5.16) 589,958 533,971 55,987 10.49 1,075,112 1,045,501 29,611 2.83 Western Visayas 494,155 734,810 (240,655) (32.75) 1,283,962 1,470,261 (186,299) (12.67) 1,778,117 2,205,071 (426,954) (19.36) Central Visayas 118,135 136,349 (18,214) (13.36) 148,190 140,469 7,721 5.50 266,325 276,818 (10,493) (3.79) Eastern Visayas 516,456 518,174 (1,718) (0.33) 439,511 434,046 5,465 1.26 955,967 952,220 3,747 0.39 Zamboanga Peninsula 189,815 208,915 (19,100) (9.14) 362,413 356,849 5,564 1.56 552,228 565,764 (13,536) (2.39) Northern Mindanao 232,261 258,183 (25,922) (10.04) 351,194 325,114 26,080 8.02 583,455 583,297 158 0.03 Davao Region 200,328 197,546 2,782 1.41 203,226 226,279 (23,053) (10.19) 403,554 423,825 (20,271) (4.78) SOCCSKSARGEN 428,029 520,150 (92,121) (17.71) 755,330 708,890 46,440 6.55 1,183,359 1,229,040 (45,681) (3.72) Caraga 223,417 221,836 1,581 0.71 184,823 203,715 (18,892) (9.27) 408,240 425,551 (17,311) (4.07) ARMM 341,935 304,051 37,884 12.46 283,531 275,696 7,835 2.84 625,466 579,747 45,719 7.89

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 1,818,743 1,945,940 (127,197) (6.54) 2,547,901 2,586,370 (38,469) (1.49) 4,366,644 4,532,310 (165,666) (3.66) CAR 42,316 44,006 (1,690) (3.84) 75,286 75,362 (76) (0.10) 117,602 119,368 (1,766) (1.48) Ilocos 89,377 85,212 4,165 4.89 304,794 304,127 667 0.22 394,171 389,339 4,832 1.24 Cagayan Valley 264,404 293,004 (28,600) (9.76) 251,280 240,311 10,969 4.56 515,684 533,315 (17,631) (3.31) Central Luzon 286,602 280,329 6,273 2.24 397,272 383,792 13,480 3.51 683,874 664,121 19,753 2.97 Calabarzon 46,722 57,991 (11,269) (19.43) 57,405 49,047 8,358 17.04 104,127 107,038 (2,911) (2.72) Mimaropa 103,675 106,207 (2,532) (2.38) 158,710 165,694 (6,984) (4.21) 262,385 271,901 (9,516) (3.50) Bicol 146,188 149,225 (3,037) (2.04) 170,685 164,377 6,308 3.84 316,873 313,602 3,271 1.04 Western Visayas 167,633 234,481 (66,848) (28.51) 373,700 434,825 (61,125) (14.06) 541,333 669,306 (127,973) (19.12) Central Visayas 48,758 48,329 429 0.89 53,121 54,598 (1,477) (2.71) 101,879 102,927 (1,048) (1.02) Eastern Visayas 149,201 147,094 2,107 1.43 126,490 125,517 973 0.78 275,691 272,611 3,080 1.13 Zamboanga Peninsula 51,696 57,321 (5,625) (9.81) 93,374 96,422 (3,048) (3.16) 145,070 153,743 (8,673) (5.64) Northern Mindanao 60,314 66,423 (6,109) (9.20) 83,010 80,847 2,163 2.68 143,324 147,270 (3,946) (2.68) Davao Region 48,191 47,602 589 1.24 47,710 48,566 (856) (1.76) 95,901 96,168 (267) (0.28) SOCCSKSARGEN 129,784 148,873 (19,089) (12.82) 200,697 200,795 (98) (0.05) 330,481 349,668 (19,187) (5.49) Caraga 70,933 75,401 (4,468) (5.93) 59,934 61,772 (1,838) (2.98) 130,867 137,173 (6,306) (4.60) ARMM 112,949 104,442 8,507 8.15 94,433 100,318 (5,885) (5.87) 207,382 204,760 2,622 1.28 YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3.64 3.79 (0.15) (3.96) 3.69 3.44 0.25 7.34 3.67 3.59 0.08 2.23 CAR 3.77 4.34 (0.57) (13.10) 3.38 3.20 0.18 5.60 3.52 3.62 (0.10) (2.76) Ilocos 4.07 4.13 (0.06) (1.38) 3.94 3.29 0.65 19.82 3.97 3.47 0.50 14.33 Cagayan Valley 3.52 4.15 (0.63) (15.18) 3.60 3.58 0.02 0.42 3.56 3.89 (0.34) (8.64) Central Luzon 5.11 5.13 (0.02) (0.48) 4.15 3.56 0.59 16.56 4.55 4.22 0.33 7.75 Calabarzon 3.56 3.90 (0.34) (8.74) 3.90 3.20 0.70 21.85 3.75 3.58 0.17 4.66 Mimaropa 2.95 3.20 (0.25) (7.87) 3.58 3.56 0.02 0.48 3.33 3.42 (0.09) (2.65) Bicol 3.32 3.43 (0.11) (3.19) 3.46 3.25 0.21 6.40 3.39 3.33 0.06 1.77 Western Visayas 2.95 3.13 (0.19) (5.93) 3.44 3.38 0.05 1.61 3.28 3.29 (0.01) (0.30) Central Visayas 2.42 2.82 (0.40) (14.12) 2.79 2.57 0.22 8.43 2.61 2.69 (0.08) (2.80) Eastern Visayas 3.46 3.52 (0.06) (1.74) 3.47 3.46 0.02 0.48 3.47 3.49 (0.03) (0.73) Zamboanga Peninsula 3.67 3.64 0.03 0.74 3.88 3.70 0.18 4.87 3.81 3.68 0.13 3.44 Northern Mindanao 3.85 3.89 (0.04) (0.93) 4.23 4.02 0.21 5.21 4.07 3.96 0.11 2.78 Davao Region 4.16 4.15 0.01 0.17 4.26 4.66 (0.40) (8.58) 4.21 4.41 (0.20) (4.52) SOCCSKSARGEN 3.30 3.49 (0.20) (5.61) 3.76 3.53 0.23 6.60 3.58 3.51 0.07 1.87 Caraga 3.15 2.94 0.21 7.06 3.08 3.30 (0.21) (6.49) 3.12 3.10 0.02 0.55 ARMM 3.03 2.91 0.12 3.99 3.00 2.75 0.25 9.25 3.02 2.83 0.18 6.52

2010 / 2009 20092009Change

Oct '10 / 2009Change2010

Oct '10 / 2009Oct '10 Rd

2010

Oct '10 Rd

REGIONJANUARY-DECEMBERJANUARY-JUNE JULY-DECEMBER

2009Change

2010

10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 22. Yellow Corn: Monthly wholesale prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D(P

es

o/K

g.)

Figure 23. White Corn: Monthly wholesale prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 24. Yellow Corn: Monthly retail prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

14.00 15.50 17.00 18.50 20.00 21.50 23.00 24.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 25. White Corn: Monthly retail prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

18 13  3.3 Fertilizer The average prices of all fertilizer grades (bag of 50 kg) from January to October 2010 were lower compared to the average prices in 2009 and 2008.

The 10-month average dealers’ price of urea was P977.81 per bag, cheaper by P63.61 from the 2009 average price and P523.73 from the average price in 2008.

Ammosul was the cheapest

fertilizer with a 10-month average price of P542.51 per bag. This was 12.82% and 39.19% below 2009 and 2008 average prices, respectively.

Complete fertilizer was the

most expensive among the four (4) grades with a 10-month average dealers’ price of P1, 086.48 per bag. This was 12.33% below last year’s average price of P1,239.27 and 31.22% below the 2008 average price of P1, 579.63.

Ammophos recorded an

average dealers’ price of P950.08 per bag. This was 16.55% and 38.19% lower than the 2009 and 2008 average prices, respectively. Lowest dealers’ price was noted in August at P914.34 per bag.

Table 4. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010

Level % Level % Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3,491,640 3,941,177 (449,537) (11.41) 3,129,151 3,435,019 (305,868) (8.90) 2,646,110 3,519,417 (873,307) (24.81) 6,754,924 5,370,804 1,384,120 25.77 CAR 50,411 55,029 (4,618) (8.39) 109,025 135,764 (26,739) (19.70) 71,171 60,547 10,624 17.55 182,930 180,316 2,614 1.45 Ilocos 263,338 238,339 24,999 10.49 100,542 113,446 (12,904) (11.37) 122,003 137,343 (15,340) (11.17) 1,078,724 862,587 216,137 25.06 Cagayan Valley 369,221 551,589 (182,368) (33.06) 561,778 664,753 (102,975) (15.49) 222,781 379,857 (157,076) (41.35) 680,981 480,837 200,144 41.62 Central Luzon 594,280 588,960 5,320 0.90 870,165 850,277 19,888 2.34 198,345 206,464 (8,119) (3.93) 1,450,070 1,159,766 290,304 25.03 Calabarzon 77,913 106,054 (28,141) (26.53) 88,426 120,174 (31,748) (26.42) 39,927 60,620 (20,693) (34.14) 183,705 96,187 87,518 90.99 Mimaropa 190,448 171,405 19,043 11.11 115,559 168,862 (53,303) (31.57) 58,584 165,825 (107,241) (64.67) 509,675 424,582 85,093 20.04 Bicol 248,345 236,902 11,443 4.83 236,809 274,628 (37,819) (13.77) 190,152 264,646 (74,494) (28.15) 399,806 269,325 130,481 48.45 Western Visayas 422,074 547,355 (125,281) (22.89) 72,081 187,455 (115,374) (61.55) 558,214 919,913 (361,699) (39.32) 725,748 550,348 175,400 31.87 Central Visayas 83,990 92,436 (8,446) (9.14) 34,145 43,913 (9,768) (22.24) 16,146 23,200 (7,054) (30.41) 132,044 117,269 14,775 12.60 Eastern Visayas 253,772 274,321 (20,549) (7.49) 262,684 243,853 18,831 7.72 151,701 166,786 (15,085) (9.04) 287,810 267,260 20,550 7.69 Zamboanga Peninsula 128,228 151,725 (23,497) (15.49) 61,587 57,190 4,397 7.69 167,105 199,933 (32,828) (16.42) 195,308 156,916 38,392 24.47 Northern Mindanao 116,173 146,958 (30,785) (20.95) 116,088 111,225 4,863 4.37 139,115 139,351 (236) (0.17) 212,079 185,763 26,316 14.17 Davao Region 114,932 127,873 (12,941) (10.12) 85,396 69,673 15,723 22.57 105,935 138,297 (32,362) (23.40) 97,291 87,982 9,309 10.58 SOCCSKSARGEN 330,595 413,193 (82,598) (19.99) 97,434 106,957 (9,523) (8.90) 383,634 402,298 (18,664) (4.64) 371,696 306,592 65,104 21.23 Caraga 33,386 51,629 (18,243) (35.33) 190,031 170,207 19,824 11.65 35,488 61,901 (26,413) (42.67) 149,335 141,814 7,521 5.30 ARMM 214,534 187,409 27,125 14.47 127,401 116,642 10,759 9.22 185,809 192,436 (6,627) (3.44) 97,722 83,260 14,462 17.37

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 1,023,685 1,098,893 (75,208) (6.84) 795,058 847,047 (51,989) (6.14) 705,906 975,880 (269,974) (27.66) 1,841,995 1,610,490 231,505 14.37 CAR 13,637 13,012 625 4.80 28,679 30,994 (2,315) (7.47) 21,687 19,741 1,946 9.86 53,599 55,621 (2,022) (3.64) Ilocos 64,156 57,378 6,778 11.81 25,221 27,834 (2,613) (9.39) 27,967 31,596 (3,629) (11.49) 276,827 272,531 4,296 1.58 Cagayan Valley 116,688 140,163 (23,475) (16.75) 147,716 152,841 (5,125) (3.35) 52,740 94,861 (42,121) (44.40) 198,540 145,450 53,090 36.50 Central Luzon 121,858 121,632 226 0.19 164,744 158,697 6,047 3.81 43,813 47,923 (4,110) (8.58) 353,459 335,869 17,590 5.24 Calabarzon 24,554 28,728 (4,174) (14.53) 22,168 29,263 (7,095) (24.25) 9,645 17,746 (8,101) (45.65) 47,760 31,301 16,459 52.58 Mimaropa 68,277 60,763 7,514 12.37 35,398 45,444 (10,046) (22.11) 15,590 47,817 (32,227) (67.40) 143,120 117,877 25,243 21.41 Bicol 81,338 73,863 7,475 10.12 64,850 75,362 (10,512) (13.95) 52,584 77,266 (24,682) (31.94) 118,101 87,111 30,990 35.58 Western Visayas 143,117 177,991 (34,874) (19.59) 24,516 56,490 (31,974) (56.60) 156,705 264,160 (107,455) (40.68) 216,995 170,665 46,330 27.15 Central Visayas 32,753 32,934 (181) (0.55) 16,005 15,395 610 3.96 4,855 7,995 (3,140) (39.27) 48,266 46,603 1,663 3.57 Eastern Visayas 81,283 85,382 (4,099) (4.80) 67,918 61,712 6,206 10.06 44,527 49,056 (4,529) (9.23) 81,963 76,461 5,502 7.20 Zamboanga Peninsula 37,199 42,306 (5,107) (12.07) 14,497 15,015 (518) (3.45) 43,911 55,913 (12,002) (21.47) 49,463 40,509 8,954 22.10 Northern Mindanao 29,755 37,455 (7,700) (20.56) 30,559 28,968 1,591 5.49 31,348 34,140 (2,792) (8.18) 51,662 46,707 4,955 10.61 Davao Region 27,626 30,453 (2,827) (9.28) 20,565 17,149 3,416 19.92 25,440 28,847 (3,407) (11.81) 22,270 19,719 2,551 12.94 SOCCSKSARGEN 99,857 114,087 (14,230) (12.47) 29,927 34,786 (4,859) (13.97) 99,155 110,343 (11,188) (10.14) 101,542 90,452 11,090 12.26 Caraga 9,767 18,491 (8,724) (47.18) 61,166 56,910 4,256 7.48 11,546 18,743 (7,197) (38.40) 48,388 43,029 5,359 12.45 ARMM 71,820 64,255 7,565 11.77 41,129 40,187 942 2.34 64,393 69,733 (5,340) (7.66) 30,040 30,585 (545) (1.78)

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3.41 3.59 (0.18) (4.90) 3.94 4.06 (0.12) (2.95) 3.75 3.61 0.14 3.94 3.67 3.33 0.33 9.96 CAR 3.70 4.23 (0.53) (12.59) 3.80 4.38 (0.58) (13.21) 3.28 3.07 0.21 7.00 3.41 3.24 0.17 5.28 Ilocos 4.10 4.15 (0.05) (1.18) 3.99 4.08 (0.09) (2.19) 4.36 4.35 0.02 0.36 3.90 3.17 0.73 23.12 Cagayan Valley 3.16 3.94 (0.77) (19.60) 3.80 4.35 (0.55) (12.56) 4.22 4.00 0.22 5.49 3.43 3.31 0.12 3.75 Central Luzon 4.88 4.84 0.03 0.72 5.28 5.36 (0.08) (1.42) 4.53 4.31 0.22 5.08 4.10 3.45 0.65 18.81 Calabarzon 3.17 3.69 (0.52) (14.05) 3.99 4.11 (0.12) (2.87) 4.14 3.42 0.72 21.19 3.85 3.07 0.77 25.17 Mimaropa 2.79 2.82 (0.03) (1.12) 3.26 3.72 (0.45) (12.14) 3.76 3.47 0.29 8.36 3.56 3.60 (0.04) (1.13) Bicol 3.05 3.21 (0.15) (4.80) 3.65 3.64 0.01 0.21 3.62 3.43 0.19 5.58 3.39 3.09 0.29 9.49 Western Visayas 2.95 3.08 (0.13) (4.10) 2.94 3.32 (0.38) (11.40) 3.56 3.48 0.08 2.29 3.34 3.22 0.12 3.72 Central Visayas 2.56 2.81 (0.24) (8.64) 2.13 2.85 (0.72) (25.21) 3.33 2.90 0.42 14.61 2.74 2.52 0.22 8.72 Eastern Visayas 3.12 3.21 (0.09) (2.83) 3.87 3.95 (0.08) (2.12) 3.41 3.40 0.01 0.21 3.51 3.50 0.02 0.46 Zamboanga Peninsula 3.45 3.59 (0.14) (3.88) 4.25 3.81 0.44 11.54 3.81 3.58 0.23 6.43 3.95 3.87 0.07 1.94 Northern Mindanao 3.90 3.92 (0.02) (0.49) 3.80 3.84 (0.04) (1.06) 4.44 4.08 0.36 8.72 4.11 3.98 0.13 3.22 Davao Region 4.16 4.20 (0.04) (0.92) 4.15 4.06 0.09 2.21 4.16 4.79 (0.63) (13.14) 4.37 4.46 (0.09) (2.09) SOCCSKSARGEN 3.31 3.62 (0.31) (8.59) 3.26 3.07 0.18 5.89 3.87 3.65 0.22 6.12 3.66 3.39 0.27 7.99 Caraga 3.42 2.79 0.63 22.42 3.11 2.99 0.12 3.88 3.07 3.30 (0.23) (6.93) 3.09 3.30 (0.21) (6.36) ARMM 2.99 2.92 0.07 2.42 3.10 2.90 0.20 6.72 2.89 2.76 0.13 4.56 3.25 2.72 0.53 19.50

Change2010 Oct '10 / 2009

2010Oct '10 / 2009 Oct '10 Rd a/ 2009Oct '10 Rd 2009

Change2010REGION2010 2009 2010 / 2009 Jul '10 / 2009

Change2009

JANUARY-MARCH APRIL-JUNE JULY-SEPTEMBER OCTOBER-DECEMBER

Change

600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Pes

o/B

ag(B

ag o

f 50

kg

)

Figure 26. Urea: Monthly dealers' prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

400 500 600 700 800 900

1,000 1,100

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Pes

o/B

ag(B

ag o

f 50

kg

)

Figure 27. Ammosul: Monthly dealers' prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Pes

o/B

ag(B

ag o

f 50

kg

)

Figure 28. Complete: Monthly dealers' prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

425 675 925

1,175 1,425 1,675 1,925

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Pes

o/B

ag(B

ag o

f 50

kg

)

Figure 29. Ammophos: Monthly dealers' prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

14 17 

-0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Th

ou

sa

nd

Mill

ime

ters

Figure 30. Actual and Normal Rainfall by regionJanuary-September 2009-2010

2010

NORMAL

2009

Table 3. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by ecosystem, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011

4.0 Rainfall

The cumulative rainfall for the period January to September 2010 was

24,262.3 millimeters. This was 36.1% below last year’s precipitation and 3.3% lower than the normal rainfall.

Rainfall analysis showed that below normal rainfall condition was

experienced over National Capital Region, Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog and Western Visayas. Above normal rainfall was noted over most areas of Caraga, ARMM and Western, Southern and Central Mindanao while the rest of the country experienced near normal to above normal rainfall condition.

Oct '10 Rd b/

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) 4,053 3,492 3,941 16.09 (11.41) Irrigated 3,129 2,740 3,035 14.23 (9.74) Rainfed 924 752 906 22.87 (17.00)

HARVEST AREA ('000 Ha) 1,134 1,024 1,099 10.76 (6.84) Irrigated 781 706 754 10.68 (6.40) Rainfed 353 318 345 10.92 (7.82)

YIELD/HECTARE (MT) 3.58 3.41 3.59 4.82 (4.90) Irrigated 4.01 3.88 4.03 3.21 (3.57) Rainfed 2.62 2.37 2.63 10.78 (9.96)

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.b/Planting intention

ITEM2011

2010 2009 PERCENT CHANGE

Oct '10 / 2010 2010 / 2009

16 15  Table 1. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by semester, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010

Table 2. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by ecosystem, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010

   

 

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 16,022 16,266 16,816 (1.50) (3.27) January-June 6,621 7,376 7,121 (10.24) 3.59 January-March 3,492 3,941 3,749 (11.41) 5.13 April-June 3,129 3,435 3,372 (8.90) 1.87 July-December 9,401 8,890 9,695 5.75 (8.30) July-September 2,646 3,519 3,467 (24.81) 1.50 October-December 6,755 a/ 5,371 6,227 25.77 (13.75)

AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) JANUARY-DECEMBER 4,367 4,532 4,460 (3.66) 1.62 January-June 1,819 1,946 1,877 (6.54) 3.65 January-March 1,024 1,099 1,040 (6.84) 5.66 April-June 795 847 837 (6.14) 1.14 July-December 2,548 2,586 2,582 (1.49) 0.15 July-September 706 976 954 (27.66) 2.28

October-December 1,842 a/ 1,610 1,628 14.37 (1.10)

YIELD/HECTARE (MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 3.67 3.59 3.77 2.23 (4.81) January-June 3.64 3.79 3.79 (3.96) (0.06) January-March 3.41 3.59 3.60 (4.90) (0.50) April-June 3.94 4.06 4.03 (2.95) 0.72 July-December 3.69 3.44 3.75 7.34 (8.44) July-September 3.75 3.61 3.63 3.94 (0.76) October-December 3.67 a/ 3.33 3.82 9.96 (12.80)

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.a/Standing Crop

ITEM2010

2009 2008 PERCENT CHANGE

Oct '10 Rd Oct '10 / 2009 2009 / 2008

Oct '10 Rd

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 16,022 16,266 16,816 (1.50) (3.27) Irrigated 12,182 12,083 12,556 0.81 (3.77) Rainfed 3,840 4,183 4,259 (8.20) (1.79) January-June 6,621 7,376 7,121 (10.24) 3.59 Irrigated 5,534 5,980 5,807 (7.46) 2.98 Rainfed 1,087 1,396 1,314 (22.15) 6.28 January-March 3,492 3,941 3,749 (11.41) 5.13 Irrigated 2,740 3,035 2,884 (9.74) 5.26 Rainfed 752 906 865 (17.00) 4.71 April-June 3,129 3,435 3,372 (8.90) 1.87 Irrigated 2,794 2,945 2,924 (5.12) 0.73 Rainfed 335 490 448 (31.68) 9.31 July-December 9,401 8,890 9,695 5.75 (8.30) Irrigated 6,648 6,103 6,749 8.92 (9.57) Rainfed 2,753 2,787 2,946 (1.21) (5.39) July-September 2,646 3,519 3,467 (24.81) 1.50 Irrigated 1,937 2,423 2,500 (20.06) (3.09) Rainfed 709 1,096 967 (35.33) 13.36 October-December 6,755 a/ 5,371 6,227 25.77 (13.75) Irrigated 4,711 3,680 4,249 28.00 (13.38) Rainfed 2,044 1,691 1,979 20.92 (14.55) AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) JANUARY-DECEMBER 4,367 4,532 4,460 (3.66) 1.62 Irrigated 3,019 3,056 3,033 (1.20) 0.76 Rainfed 1,348 1,477 1,427 (8.74) 3.45 January-June 1,819 1,946 1,877 (6.54) 3.65 Irrigated 1,373 1,428 1,388 (3.82) 2.85 Rainfed 445 518 489 (14.02) 5.90 January-March 1,024 1,099 1,040 (6.84) 5.66 Irrigated 706 754 713 (6.40) 5.69 Rainfed 318 345 327 (7.82) 5.61 April-June 795 847 837 (6.14) 1.14 Irrigated 668 674 675 (0.94) (0.14) Rainfed 127 173 163 (26.36) 6.48 July-December 2,548 2,586 2,582 (1.49) 0.15 Irrigated 1,646 1,628 1,644 1.10 (1.00) Rainfed 902 959 938 (5.88) 2.17 July-September 706 976 954 (27.66) 2.28 Irrigated 463 603 622 (23.16) (3.07) Rainfed 243 373 332 (34.94) 12.29 October-December 1,842 a/ 1,610 1,628 14.37 (1.10) Irrigated 1,183 1,025 1,023 15.37 0.25 Rainfed 659 585 606 12.64 (3.38) YIELD/HECTARE (MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 3.67 3.59 3.77 2.23 (4.81) Irrigated 4.03 3.95 4.14 2.04 (4.49) Rainfed 2.85 2.83 2.98 0.59 (5.06) January-June 3.64 3.79 3.79 (3.96) (0.06) Irrigated 4.03 4.19 4.18 (3.78) 0.12 Rainfed 2.44 2.69 2.69 (9.46) 0.36 January-March 3.41 3.59 3.60 (4.90) (0.50) Irrigated 3.88 4.03 4.04 (3.57) (0.41) Rainfed 2.37 2.63 2.65 (9.96) (0.85) April-June 3.94 4.06 4.03 (2.95) 0.72 Irrigated 4.19 4.37 4.33 (4.21) 0.88 Rainfed 2.63 2.83 2.76 (7.22) 2.66 July-December 3.69 3.44 3.75 7.34 (8.44) Irrigated 4.04 3.75 4.10 7.74 (8.65) Rainfed 3.05 2.91 3.14 4.97 (7.40) July-September 3.75 3.61 3.63 3.94 (0.76) Irrigated 4.18 4.02 4.02 4.04 (0.02) Rainfed 2.92 2.94 2.91 (0.60) 0.95 October-December 3.67 a/ 3.33 3.82 9.96 (12.80) Irrigated 3.98 3.59 4.16 10.95 (13.60) Rainfed 3.10 2.89 3.27 7.35 (11.56) NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.a/ Standing crop

ITEM 2010 2009 2008 PERCENT CHANGEOct '10 / 2009 2009 / 2008

16 15  Table 1. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by semester, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010

Table 2. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by ecosystem, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010

   

 

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 16,022 16,266 16,816 (1.50) (3.27) January-June 6,621 7,376 7,121 (10.24) 3.59 January-March 3,492 3,941 3,749 (11.41) 5.13 April-June 3,129 3,435 3,372 (8.90) 1.87 July-December 9,401 8,890 9,695 5.75 (8.30) July-September 2,646 3,519 3,467 (24.81) 1.50 October-December 6,755 a/ 5,371 6,227 25.77 (13.75)

AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) JANUARY-DECEMBER 4,367 4,532 4,460 (3.66) 1.62 January-June 1,819 1,946 1,877 (6.54) 3.65 January-March 1,024 1,099 1,040 (6.84) 5.66 April-June 795 847 837 (6.14) 1.14 July-December 2,548 2,586 2,582 (1.49) 0.15 July-September 706 976 954 (27.66) 2.28

October-December 1,842 a/ 1,610 1,628 14.37 (1.10)

YIELD/HECTARE (MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 3.67 3.59 3.77 2.23 (4.81) January-June 3.64 3.79 3.79 (3.96) (0.06) January-March 3.41 3.59 3.60 (4.90) (0.50) April-June 3.94 4.06 4.03 (2.95) 0.72 July-December 3.69 3.44 3.75 7.34 (8.44) July-September 3.75 3.61 3.63 3.94 (0.76) October-December 3.67 a/ 3.33 3.82 9.96 (12.80)

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.a/Standing Crop

ITEM2010

2009 2008 PERCENT CHANGE

Oct '10 Rd Oct '10 / 2009 2009 / 2008

Oct '10 Rd

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 16,022 16,266 16,816 (1.50) (3.27) Irrigated 12,182 12,083 12,556 0.81 (3.77) Rainfed 3,840 4,183 4,259 (8.20) (1.79) January-June 6,621 7,376 7,121 (10.24) 3.59 Irrigated 5,534 5,980 5,807 (7.46) 2.98 Rainfed 1,087 1,396 1,314 (22.15) 6.28 January-March 3,492 3,941 3,749 (11.41) 5.13 Irrigated 2,740 3,035 2,884 (9.74) 5.26 Rainfed 752 906 865 (17.00) 4.71 April-June 3,129 3,435 3,372 (8.90) 1.87 Irrigated 2,794 2,945 2,924 (5.12) 0.73 Rainfed 335 490 448 (31.68) 9.31 July-December 9,401 8,890 9,695 5.75 (8.30) Irrigated 6,648 6,103 6,749 8.92 (9.57) Rainfed 2,753 2,787 2,946 (1.21) (5.39) July-September 2,646 3,519 3,467 (24.81) 1.50 Irrigated 1,937 2,423 2,500 (20.06) (3.09) Rainfed 709 1,096 967 (35.33) 13.36 October-December 6,755 a/ 5,371 6,227 25.77 (13.75) Irrigated 4,711 3,680 4,249 28.00 (13.38) Rainfed 2,044 1,691 1,979 20.92 (14.55) AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) JANUARY-DECEMBER 4,367 4,532 4,460 (3.66) 1.62 Irrigated 3,019 3,056 3,033 (1.20) 0.76 Rainfed 1,348 1,477 1,427 (8.74) 3.45 January-June 1,819 1,946 1,877 (6.54) 3.65 Irrigated 1,373 1,428 1,388 (3.82) 2.85 Rainfed 445 518 489 (14.02) 5.90 January-March 1,024 1,099 1,040 (6.84) 5.66 Irrigated 706 754 713 (6.40) 5.69 Rainfed 318 345 327 (7.82) 5.61 April-June 795 847 837 (6.14) 1.14 Irrigated 668 674 675 (0.94) (0.14) Rainfed 127 173 163 (26.36) 6.48 July-December 2,548 2,586 2,582 (1.49) 0.15 Irrigated 1,646 1,628 1,644 1.10 (1.00) Rainfed 902 959 938 (5.88) 2.17 July-September 706 976 954 (27.66) 2.28 Irrigated 463 603 622 (23.16) (3.07) Rainfed 243 373 332 (34.94) 12.29 October-December 1,842 a/ 1,610 1,628 14.37 (1.10) Irrigated 1,183 1,025 1,023 15.37 0.25 Rainfed 659 585 606 12.64 (3.38) YIELD/HECTARE (MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 3.67 3.59 3.77 2.23 (4.81) Irrigated 4.03 3.95 4.14 2.04 (4.49) Rainfed 2.85 2.83 2.98 0.59 (5.06) January-June 3.64 3.79 3.79 (3.96) (0.06) Irrigated 4.03 4.19 4.18 (3.78) 0.12 Rainfed 2.44 2.69 2.69 (9.46) 0.36 January-March 3.41 3.59 3.60 (4.90) (0.50) Irrigated 3.88 4.03 4.04 (3.57) (0.41) Rainfed 2.37 2.63 2.65 (9.96) (0.85) April-June 3.94 4.06 4.03 (2.95) 0.72 Irrigated 4.19 4.37 4.33 (4.21) 0.88 Rainfed 2.63 2.83 2.76 (7.22) 2.66 July-December 3.69 3.44 3.75 7.34 (8.44) Irrigated 4.04 3.75 4.10 7.74 (8.65) Rainfed 3.05 2.91 3.14 4.97 (7.40) July-September 3.75 3.61 3.63 3.94 (0.76) Irrigated 4.18 4.02 4.02 4.04 (0.02) Rainfed 2.92 2.94 2.91 (0.60) 0.95 October-December 3.67 a/ 3.33 3.82 9.96 (12.80) Irrigated 3.98 3.59 4.16 10.95 (13.60) Rainfed 3.10 2.89 3.27 7.35 (11.56) NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.a/ Standing crop

ITEM 2010 2009 2008 PERCENT CHANGEOct '10 / 2009 2009 / 2008

14 17 

-0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Th

ou

sa

nd

Mill

ime

ters

Figure 30. Actual and Normal Rainfall by regionJanuary-September 2009-2010

2010

NORMAL

2009

Table 3. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by ecosystem, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011

4.0 Rainfall

The cumulative rainfall for the period January to September 2010 was

24,262.3 millimeters. This was 36.1% below last year’s precipitation and 3.3% lower than the normal rainfall.

Rainfall analysis showed that below normal rainfall condition was

experienced over National Capital Region, Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog and Western Visayas. Above normal rainfall was noted over most areas of Caraga, ARMM and Western, Southern and Central Mindanao while the rest of the country experienced near normal to above normal rainfall condition.

Oct '10 Rd b/

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) 4,053 3,492 3,941 16.09 (11.41) Irrigated 3,129 2,740 3,035 14.23 (9.74) Rainfed 924 752 906 22.87 (17.00)

HARVEST AREA ('000 Ha) 1,134 1,024 1,099 10.76 (6.84) Irrigated 781 706 754 10.68 (6.40) Rainfed 353 318 345 10.92 (7.82)

YIELD/HECTARE (MT) 3.58 3.41 3.59 4.82 (4.90) Irrigated 4.01 3.88 4.03 3.21 (3.57) Rainfed 2.62 2.37 2.63 10.78 (9.96)

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.b/Planting intention

ITEM2011

2010 2009 PERCENT CHANGE

Oct '10 / 2010 2010 / 2009

18 13  3.3 Fertilizer The average prices of all fertilizer grades (bag of 50 kg) from January to October 2010 were lower compared to the average prices in 2009 and 2008.

The 10-month average dealers’ price of urea was P977.81 per bag, cheaper by P63.61 from the 2009 average price and P523.73 from the average price in 2008.

Ammosul was the cheapest

fertilizer with a 10-month average price of P542.51 per bag. This was 12.82% and 39.19% below 2009 and 2008 average prices, respectively.

Complete fertilizer was the

most expensive among the four (4) grades with a 10-month average dealers’ price of P1, 086.48 per bag. This was 12.33% below last year’s average price of P1,239.27 and 31.22% below the 2008 average price of P1, 579.63.

Ammophos recorded an

average dealers’ price of P950.08 per bag. This was 16.55% and 38.19% lower than the 2009 and 2008 average prices, respectively. Lowest dealers’ price was noted in August at P914.34 per bag.

Table 4. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010

Level % Level % Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3,491,640 3,941,177 (449,537) (11.41) 3,129,151 3,435,019 (305,868) (8.90) 2,646,110 3,519,417 (873,307) (24.81) 6,754,924 5,370,804 1,384,120 25.77 CAR 50,411 55,029 (4,618) (8.39) 109,025 135,764 (26,739) (19.70) 71,171 60,547 10,624 17.55 182,930 180,316 2,614 1.45 Ilocos 263,338 238,339 24,999 10.49 100,542 113,446 (12,904) (11.37) 122,003 137,343 (15,340) (11.17) 1,078,724 862,587 216,137 25.06 Cagayan Valley 369,221 551,589 (182,368) (33.06) 561,778 664,753 (102,975) (15.49) 222,781 379,857 (157,076) (41.35) 680,981 480,837 200,144 41.62 Central Luzon 594,280 588,960 5,320 0.90 870,165 850,277 19,888 2.34 198,345 206,464 (8,119) (3.93) 1,450,070 1,159,766 290,304 25.03 Calabarzon 77,913 106,054 (28,141) (26.53) 88,426 120,174 (31,748) (26.42) 39,927 60,620 (20,693) (34.14) 183,705 96,187 87,518 90.99 Mimaropa 190,448 171,405 19,043 11.11 115,559 168,862 (53,303) (31.57) 58,584 165,825 (107,241) (64.67) 509,675 424,582 85,093 20.04 Bicol 248,345 236,902 11,443 4.83 236,809 274,628 (37,819) (13.77) 190,152 264,646 (74,494) (28.15) 399,806 269,325 130,481 48.45 Western Visayas 422,074 547,355 (125,281) (22.89) 72,081 187,455 (115,374) (61.55) 558,214 919,913 (361,699) (39.32) 725,748 550,348 175,400 31.87 Central Visayas 83,990 92,436 (8,446) (9.14) 34,145 43,913 (9,768) (22.24) 16,146 23,200 (7,054) (30.41) 132,044 117,269 14,775 12.60 Eastern Visayas 253,772 274,321 (20,549) (7.49) 262,684 243,853 18,831 7.72 151,701 166,786 (15,085) (9.04) 287,810 267,260 20,550 7.69 Zamboanga Peninsula 128,228 151,725 (23,497) (15.49) 61,587 57,190 4,397 7.69 167,105 199,933 (32,828) (16.42) 195,308 156,916 38,392 24.47 Northern Mindanao 116,173 146,958 (30,785) (20.95) 116,088 111,225 4,863 4.37 139,115 139,351 (236) (0.17) 212,079 185,763 26,316 14.17 Davao Region 114,932 127,873 (12,941) (10.12) 85,396 69,673 15,723 22.57 105,935 138,297 (32,362) (23.40) 97,291 87,982 9,309 10.58 SOCCSKSARGEN 330,595 413,193 (82,598) (19.99) 97,434 106,957 (9,523) (8.90) 383,634 402,298 (18,664) (4.64) 371,696 306,592 65,104 21.23 Caraga 33,386 51,629 (18,243) (35.33) 190,031 170,207 19,824 11.65 35,488 61,901 (26,413) (42.67) 149,335 141,814 7,521 5.30 ARMM 214,534 187,409 27,125 14.47 127,401 116,642 10,759 9.22 185,809 192,436 (6,627) (3.44) 97,722 83,260 14,462 17.37

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 1,023,685 1,098,893 (75,208) (6.84) 795,058 847,047 (51,989) (6.14) 705,906 975,880 (269,974) (27.66) 1,841,995 1,610,490 231,505 14.37 CAR 13,637 13,012 625 4.80 28,679 30,994 (2,315) (7.47) 21,687 19,741 1,946 9.86 53,599 55,621 (2,022) (3.64) Ilocos 64,156 57,378 6,778 11.81 25,221 27,834 (2,613) (9.39) 27,967 31,596 (3,629) (11.49) 276,827 272,531 4,296 1.58 Cagayan Valley 116,688 140,163 (23,475) (16.75) 147,716 152,841 (5,125) (3.35) 52,740 94,861 (42,121) (44.40) 198,540 145,450 53,090 36.50 Central Luzon 121,858 121,632 226 0.19 164,744 158,697 6,047 3.81 43,813 47,923 (4,110) (8.58) 353,459 335,869 17,590 5.24 Calabarzon 24,554 28,728 (4,174) (14.53) 22,168 29,263 (7,095) (24.25) 9,645 17,746 (8,101) (45.65) 47,760 31,301 16,459 52.58 Mimaropa 68,277 60,763 7,514 12.37 35,398 45,444 (10,046) (22.11) 15,590 47,817 (32,227) (67.40) 143,120 117,877 25,243 21.41 Bicol 81,338 73,863 7,475 10.12 64,850 75,362 (10,512) (13.95) 52,584 77,266 (24,682) (31.94) 118,101 87,111 30,990 35.58 Western Visayas 143,117 177,991 (34,874) (19.59) 24,516 56,490 (31,974) (56.60) 156,705 264,160 (107,455) (40.68) 216,995 170,665 46,330 27.15 Central Visayas 32,753 32,934 (181) (0.55) 16,005 15,395 610 3.96 4,855 7,995 (3,140) (39.27) 48,266 46,603 1,663 3.57 Eastern Visayas 81,283 85,382 (4,099) (4.80) 67,918 61,712 6,206 10.06 44,527 49,056 (4,529) (9.23) 81,963 76,461 5,502 7.20 Zamboanga Peninsula 37,199 42,306 (5,107) (12.07) 14,497 15,015 (518) (3.45) 43,911 55,913 (12,002) (21.47) 49,463 40,509 8,954 22.10 Northern Mindanao 29,755 37,455 (7,700) (20.56) 30,559 28,968 1,591 5.49 31,348 34,140 (2,792) (8.18) 51,662 46,707 4,955 10.61 Davao Region 27,626 30,453 (2,827) (9.28) 20,565 17,149 3,416 19.92 25,440 28,847 (3,407) (11.81) 22,270 19,719 2,551 12.94 SOCCSKSARGEN 99,857 114,087 (14,230) (12.47) 29,927 34,786 (4,859) (13.97) 99,155 110,343 (11,188) (10.14) 101,542 90,452 11,090 12.26 Caraga 9,767 18,491 (8,724) (47.18) 61,166 56,910 4,256 7.48 11,546 18,743 (7,197) (38.40) 48,388 43,029 5,359 12.45 ARMM 71,820 64,255 7,565 11.77 41,129 40,187 942 2.34 64,393 69,733 (5,340) (7.66) 30,040 30,585 (545) (1.78)

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3.41 3.59 (0.18) (4.90) 3.94 4.06 (0.12) (2.95) 3.75 3.61 0.14 3.94 3.67 3.33 0.33 9.96 CAR 3.70 4.23 (0.53) (12.59) 3.80 4.38 (0.58) (13.21) 3.28 3.07 0.21 7.00 3.41 3.24 0.17 5.28 Ilocos 4.10 4.15 (0.05) (1.18) 3.99 4.08 (0.09) (2.19) 4.36 4.35 0.02 0.36 3.90 3.17 0.73 23.12 Cagayan Valley 3.16 3.94 (0.77) (19.60) 3.80 4.35 (0.55) (12.56) 4.22 4.00 0.22 5.49 3.43 3.31 0.12 3.75 Central Luzon 4.88 4.84 0.03 0.72 5.28 5.36 (0.08) (1.42) 4.53 4.31 0.22 5.08 4.10 3.45 0.65 18.81 Calabarzon 3.17 3.69 (0.52) (14.05) 3.99 4.11 (0.12) (2.87) 4.14 3.42 0.72 21.19 3.85 3.07 0.77 25.17 Mimaropa 2.79 2.82 (0.03) (1.12) 3.26 3.72 (0.45) (12.14) 3.76 3.47 0.29 8.36 3.56 3.60 (0.04) (1.13) Bicol 3.05 3.21 (0.15) (4.80) 3.65 3.64 0.01 0.21 3.62 3.43 0.19 5.58 3.39 3.09 0.29 9.49 Western Visayas 2.95 3.08 (0.13) (4.10) 2.94 3.32 (0.38) (11.40) 3.56 3.48 0.08 2.29 3.34 3.22 0.12 3.72 Central Visayas 2.56 2.81 (0.24) (8.64) 2.13 2.85 (0.72) (25.21) 3.33 2.90 0.42 14.61 2.74 2.52 0.22 8.72 Eastern Visayas 3.12 3.21 (0.09) (2.83) 3.87 3.95 (0.08) (2.12) 3.41 3.40 0.01 0.21 3.51 3.50 0.02 0.46 Zamboanga Peninsula 3.45 3.59 (0.14) (3.88) 4.25 3.81 0.44 11.54 3.81 3.58 0.23 6.43 3.95 3.87 0.07 1.94 Northern Mindanao 3.90 3.92 (0.02) (0.49) 3.80 3.84 (0.04) (1.06) 4.44 4.08 0.36 8.72 4.11 3.98 0.13 3.22 Davao Region 4.16 4.20 (0.04) (0.92) 4.15 4.06 0.09 2.21 4.16 4.79 (0.63) (13.14) 4.37 4.46 (0.09) (2.09) SOCCSKSARGEN 3.31 3.62 (0.31) (8.59) 3.26 3.07 0.18 5.89 3.87 3.65 0.22 6.12 3.66 3.39 0.27 7.99 Caraga 3.42 2.79 0.63 22.42 3.11 2.99 0.12 3.88 3.07 3.30 (0.23) (6.93) 3.09 3.30 (0.21) (6.36) ARMM 2.99 2.92 0.07 2.42 3.10 2.90 0.20 6.72 2.89 2.76 0.13 4.56 3.25 2.72 0.53 19.50

Change2010 Oct '10 / 2009

2010Oct '10 / 2009 Oct '10 Rd a/ 2009Oct '10 Rd 2009

Change2010REGION2010 2009 2010 / 2009 Jul '10 / 2009

Change2009

JANUARY-MARCH APRIL-JUNE JULY-SEPTEMBER OCTOBER-DECEMBER

Change

600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Pes

o/B

ag(B

ag o

f 50

kg

)

Figure 26. Urea: Monthly dealers' prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

400 500 600 700 800 900

1,000 1,100

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Pes

o/B

ag(B

ag o

f 50

kg

)

Figure 27. Ammosul: Monthly dealers' prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Pes

o/B

ag(B

ag o

f 50

kg

)

Figure 28. Complete: Monthly dealers' prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

425 675 925

1,175 1,425 1,675 1,925

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Pes

o/B

ag(B

ag o

f 50

kg

)

Figure 29. Ammophos: Monthly dealers' prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

12 19 Table 5. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by semester, by region,

Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010

At wholesale, average price of yellow corn from January to October 2010 was P14.27 per kilogram. This year’s average price was higher than that of last year by 1.56% and 9.68% compared to the 2008 level.

The January to October

average wholesale price of white corn was P15.21 per kilogram, 6.33% or P1.03 lower than the 2009 level. Compared to same period of 2008, average price was higher by 12.61% or P1.71.

The 10-month average retail

price of yellow corn was P19.31. This was 4.24% or P0.86 lower than last year’s price but 7.09% or P1.27 higher than the average price in 2008.

The average retail price of

white corn from January to October 2010 was P19.87, 6.55% or P0.30 below last year’s average price of P20.17 but 17.23% or P2.92 higher than the 2008 level.

Level % Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 6,620,791 7,376,196 (755,405) (10.24) 9,401,034 8,890,221 510,813 5.75 16,021,825 16,266,417 (244,592) (1.50) CAR 159,436 190,793 (31,357) (16.44) 254,101 240,863 13,238 5.50 413,537 431,656 (18,119) (4.20) Ilocos 363,880 351,785 12,095 3.44 1,200,727 999,930 200,797 20.08 1,564,607 1,351,715 212,892 15.75 Cagayan Valley 930,999 1,216,342 (285,343) (23.46) 903,762 860,694 43,068 5.00 1,834,761 2,077,036 (242,275) (11.66) Central Luzon 1,464,445 1,439,237 25,208 1.75 1,648,415 1,366,230 282,185 20.65 3,112,860 2,805,467 307,393 10.96 Calabarzon 166,339 226,228 (59,889) (26.47) 223,632 156,807 66,825 42.62 389,971 383,035 6,936 1.81 Mimaropa 306,007 340,267 (34,260) (10.07) 568,259 590,407 (22,148) (3.75) 874,266 930,674 (56,408) (6.06) Bicol 485,154 511,530 (26,376) (5.16) 589,958 533,971 55,987 10.49 1,075,112 1,045,501 29,611 2.83 Western Visayas 494,155 734,810 (240,655) (32.75) 1,283,962 1,470,261 (186,299) (12.67) 1,778,117 2,205,071 (426,954) (19.36) Central Visayas 118,135 136,349 (18,214) (13.36) 148,190 140,469 7,721 5.50 266,325 276,818 (10,493) (3.79) Eastern Visayas 516,456 518,174 (1,718) (0.33) 439,511 434,046 5,465 1.26 955,967 952,220 3,747 0.39 Zamboanga Peninsula 189,815 208,915 (19,100) (9.14) 362,413 356,849 5,564 1.56 552,228 565,764 (13,536) (2.39) Northern Mindanao 232,261 258,183 (25,922) (10.04) 351,194 325,114 26,080 8.02 583,455 583,297 158 0.03 Davao Region 200,328 197,546 2,782 1.41 203,226 226,279 (23,053) (10.19) 403,554 423,825 (20,271) (4.78) SOCCSKSARGEN 428,029 520,150 (92,121) (17.71) 755,330 708,890 46,440 6.55 1,183,359 1,229,040 (45,681) (3.72) Caraga 223,417 221,836 1,581 0.71 184,823 203,715 (18,892) (9.27) 408,240 425,551 (17,311) (4.07) ARMM 341,935 304,051 37,884 12.46 283,531 275,696 7,835 2.84 625,466 579,747 45,719 7.89

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 1,818,743 1,945,940 (127,197) (6.54) 2,547,901 2,586,370 (38,469) (1.49) 4,366,644 4,532,310 (165,666) (3.66) CAR 42,316 44,006 (1,690) (3.84) 75,286 75,362 (76) (0.10) 117,602 119,368 (1,766) (1.48) Ilocos 89,377 85,212 4,165 4.89 304,794 304,127 667 0.22 394,171 389,339 4,832 1.24 Cagayan Valley 264,404 293,004 (28,600) (9.76) 251,280 240,311 10,969 4.56 515,684 533,315 (17,631) (3.31) Central Luzon 286,602 280,329 6,273 2.24 397,272 383,792 13,480 3.51 683,874 664,121 19,753 2.97 Calabarzon 46,722 57,991 (11,269) (19.43) 57,405 49,047 8,358 17.04 104,127 107,038 (2,911) (2.72) Mimaropa 103,675 106,207 (2,532) (2.38) 158,710 165,694 (6,984) (4.21) 262,385 271,901 (9,516) (3.50) Bicol 146,188 149,225 (3,037) (2.04) 170,685 164,377 6,308 3.84 316,873 313,602 3,271 1.04 Western Visayas 167,633 234,481 (66,848) (28.51) 373,700 434,825 (61,125) (14.06) 541,333 669,306 (127,973) (19.12) Central Visayas 48,758 48,329 429 0.89 53,121 54,598 (1,477) (2.71) 101,879 102,927 (1,048) (1.02) Eastern Visayas 149,201 147,094 2,107 1.43 126,490 125,517 973 0.78 275,691 272,611 3,080 1.13 Zamboanga Peninsula 51,696 57,321 (5,625) (9.81) 93,374 96,422 (3,048) (3.16) 145,070 153,743 (8,673) (5.64) Northern Mindanao 60,314 66,423 (6,109) (9.20) 83,010 80,847 2,163 2.68 143,324 147,270 (3,946) (2.68) Davao Region 48,191 47,602 589 1.24 47,710 48,566 (856) (1.76) 95,901 96,168 (267) (0.28) SOCCSKSARGEN 129,784 148,873 (19,089) (12.82) 200,697 200,795 (98) (0.05) 330,481 349,668 (19,187) (5.49) Caraga 70,933 75,401 (4,468) (5.93) 59,934 61,772 (1,838) (2.98) 130,867 137,173 (6,306) (4.60) ARMM 112,949 104,442 8,507 8.15 94,433 100,318 (5,885) (5.87) 207,382 204,760 2,622 1.28 YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3.64 3.79 (0.15) (3.96) 3.69 3.44 0.25 7.34 3.67 3.59 0.08 2.23 CAR 3.77 4.34 (0.57) (13.10) 3.38 3.20 0.18 5.60 3.52 3.62 (0.10) (2.76) Ilocos 4.07 4.13 (0.06) (1.38) 3.94 3.29 0.65 19.82 3.97 3.47 0.50 14.33 Cagayan Valley 3.52 4.15 (0.63) (15.18) 3.60 3.58 0.02 0.42 3.56 3.89 (0.34) (8.64) Central Luzon 5.11 5.13 (0.02) (0.48) 4.15 3.56 0.59 16.56 4.55 4.22 0.33 7.75 Calabarzon 3.56 3.90 (0.34) (8.74) 3.90 3.20 0.70 21.85 3.75 3.58 0.17 4.66 Mimaropa 2.95 3.20 (0.25) (7.87) 3.58 3.56 0.02 0.48 3.33 3.42 (0.09) (2.65) Bicol 3.32 3.43 (0.11) (3.19) 3.46 3.25 0.21 6.40 3.39 3.33 0.06 1.77 Western Visayas 2.95 3.13 (0.19) (5.93) 3.44 3.38 0.05 1.61 3.28 3.29 (0.01) (0.30) Central Visayas 2.42 2.82 (0.40) (14.12) 2.79 2.57 0.22 8.43 2.61 2.69 (0.08) (2.80) Eastern Visayas 3.46 3.52 (0.06) (1.74) 3.47 3.46 0.02 0.48 3.47 3.49 (0.03) (0.73) Zamboanga Peninsula 3.67 3.64 0.03 0.74 3.88 3.70 0.18 4.87 3.81 3.68 0.13 3.44 Northern Mindanao 3.85 3.89 (0.04) (0.93) 4.23 4.02 0.21 5.21 4.07 3.96 0.11 2.78 Davao Region 4.16 4.15 0.01 0.17 4.26 4.66 (0.40) (8.58) 4.21 4.41 (0.20) (4.52) SOCCSKSARGEN 3.30 3.49 (0.20) (5.61) 3.76 3.53 0.23 6.60 3.58 3.51 0.07 1.87 Caraga 3.15 2.94 0.21 7.06 3.08 3.30 (0.21) (6.49) 3.12 3.10 0.02 0.55 ARMM 3.03 2.91 0.12 3.99 3.00 2.75 0.25 9.25 3.02 2.83 0.18 6.52

2010 / 2009 20092009Change

Oct '10 / 2009Change2010

Oct '10 / 2009Oct '10 Rd

2010

Oct '10 Rd

REGIONJANUARY-DECEMBERJANUARY-JUNE JULY-DECEMBER

2009Change

2010

10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 22. Yellow Corn: Monthly wholesale prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 23. White Corn: Monthly wholesale prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 24. Yellow Corn: Monthly retail prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

14.00 15.50 17.00 18.50 20.00 21.50 23.00 24.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 25. White Corn: Monthly retail prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

20 11  In Metro Manila, average

wholesale price of rice was P30.76 per kilogram during the period January to October 2010. This period’s average price was 2.44% or P0.74 higher than the 2009 level.

At retail, the average

monthly prices of rice in Metro Manila remained at P35.00 since September of 2008.

3.2 Corn The 10-month average farmgate and wholesale prices of yellow corn for this year were generally higher than the 2009 levels. However, average retail prices dropped by 4.24% or P0.86. White corngrain had lower average prices at all market levels for the 10-month period.

At farmgate, average price of yellow corngrain during the reference period was P10.93 per kilogram. This was P0.03 higher than the 2009 level and P0.22 higher than the 2008 level.

Average farmgate price of white corngrain from January to October 2010 dropped to P12.21 per kilogram from P13.83 last year and P12.37 in 2008. This was 11.73% or P1.62 lower than the 2009 average price and 1.33% or P0.16 lower than the average price in 2008.

Table 6. PALAY: Final estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January- March, 2009-2011

2011

Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 4,053,486 3,491,640 3,941,177 561,846 16.09 (449,537) (11.41) CAR 55,063 50,411 55,029 4,652 9.23 (4,618) (8.39) Ilocos 266,898 263,338 238,339 3,560 1.35 24,999 10.49 Cagayan Valley 613,755 369,221 551,589 244,534 66.23 (182,368) (33.06) Central Luzon 585,301 594,280 588,960 (8,979) (1.51) 5,320 0.90 Calabarzon 104,536 77,913 106,054 26,623 34.17 (28,141) (26.53) Mimaropa 224,100 190,448 171,405 33,652 17.67 19,043 11.11 Bicol 257,225 248,345 236,902 8,880 3.58 11,443 4.83 Western Visayas 608,878 422,074 547,355 186,804 44.26 (125,281) (22.89) Central Visayas 94,504 83,990 92,436 10,514 12.52 (8,446) (9.14) Eastern Visayas 282,451 253,772 274,321 28,679 11.30 (20,549) (7.49) Zamboanga Peninsula 144,518 128,228 151,725 16,290 12.70 (23,497) (15.49) Northern Mindanao 143,169 116,173 146,958 26,996 23.24 (30,785) (20.95) Davao Region 115,408 114,932 127,873 476 0.41 (12,941) (10.12) SOCCSKSARGEN 382,613 330,595 413,193 52,018 15.73 (82,598) (19.99) Caraga 48,797 33,386 51,629 15,411 46.16 (18,243) (35.33) ARMM 126,270 214,534 187,409 (88,264) (41.14) 27,125 14.47

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 1,133,792 1,023,685 1,098,893 110,107 10.76 (75,208) (6.84) CAR 13,806 13,637 13,012 169 1.24 625 4.80 Ilocos 64,178 64,156 57,378 22 0.03 6,778 11.81 Cagayan Valley 160,655 116,688 140,163 43,967 37.68 (23,475) (16.75) Central Luzon 121,467 121,858 121,632 (391) (0.32) 226 0.19 Calabarzon 27,839 24,554 28,728 3,285 13.38 (4,174) (14.53) Mimaropa 72,565 68,277 60,763 4,288 6.28 7,514 12.37 Bicol 81,082 81,338 73,863 (256) (0.31) 7,475 10.12 Western Visayas 195,725 143,117 177,991 52,608 36.76 (34,874) (19.59) Central Visayas 33,668 32,753 32,934 915 2.79 (181) (0.55) Eastern Visayas 87,095 81,283 85,382 5,812 7.15 (4,099) (4.80) Zamboanga Peninsula 40,192 37,199 42,306 2,993 8.05 (5,107) (12.07) Northern Mindanao 36,461 29,755 37,455 6,706 22.54 (7,700) (20.56) Davao Region 27,443 27,626 30,453 (183) (0.66) (2,827) (9.28) SOCCSKSARGEN 108,913 99,857 114,087 9,056 9.07 (14,230) (12.47) Caraga 15,285 9,767 18,491 5,518 56.50 (8,724) (47.18) ARMM 47,418 71,820 64,255 (24,402) (33.98) 7,565 11.77

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3.58 3.41 3.59 0.16 4.82 (0.18) (4.90) CAR 3.99 3.70 4.23 0.29 7.89 (0.53) (12.59) Ilocos 4.16 4.10 4.15 0.05 1.32 (0.05) (1.18) Cagayan Valley 3.82 3.16 3.94 0.66 20.74 (0.77) (19.60) Central Luzon 4.82 4.88 4.84 (0.06) (1.19) 0.03 0.72 Calabarzon 3.76 3.17 3.69 0.58 18.34 (0.52) (14.05) Mimaropa 3.09 2.79 2.82 0.30 10.72 (0.03) (1.12) Bicol 3.17 3.05 3.21 0.12 3.90 (0.15) (4.80) Western Visayas 3.11 2.95 3.08 0.16 5.48 (0.13) (4.10) Central Visayas 2.81 2.56 2.81 0.24 9.46 (0.24) (8.64) Eastern Visayas 3.24 3.12 3.21 0.12 3.87 (0.09) (2.83) Zamboanga Peninsula 3.60 3.45 3.59 0.15 4.31 (0.14) (3.88) Northern Mindanao 3.93 3.90 3.92 0.02 0.57 (0.02) (0.49) Davao Region 4.21 4.16 4.20 0.05 1.08 (0.04) (0.92) SOCCSKSARGEN 3.51 3.31 3.62 0.20 6.11 (0.31) (8.59) Caraga 3.19 3.42 2.79 (0.23) (6.60) 0.63 22.42 ARMM 2.66 2.99 2.92 (0.32) (10.85) 0.07 2.42 NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.b/ Planting Intentions

JANUARY-MARCHREGION

2011 / 2010Oct '10 b/ 2010 / 20092010 2009

Change

20.00 22.50 25.00 27.50 30.00 32.50 35.00 37.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 18. Rice: Monthly wholesale prices, Metro Manila, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

23.50 26.00 28.50 31.00 33.50 36.00 38.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 19. Rice: Monthly retail prices, Metro Manila, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

7.00 8.00 9.00

10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 20. Yellow Corn: Monthly farmgate prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pe

so

/Kg

.)

Figure 21. White Corn: Monthly farmgate prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

10 21 Table 7. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by semester,

Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010

3.0 Prices 3.1 Palay/Rice At the national level, average farmgate price of palay and wholesale and retail prices of rice from January to October 2010 were generally higher than their respective levels in 2008 and 2009.

The average farmgate price of palay for January to October 2010 was P15.47 per kilogram, P0.93 and P0.33 higher than the corresponding average prices in 2008 and 2009, respectively.

At wholesale, average price

of rice for January to October 2010 was registered at P31.56 per kilogram. This was P0.32 more than the average price in 2009 and P1.5 higher than the 2008 level.

This year’s average retail

price of rice for January to October 2010 was P34.37 per kilogram, 0.61% higher than last year’s price and 4.99% higher than the price in 2008. The highest price was noted in March at P34.59 per kilogram. This was 0.09% lower than the price of the same month last year.

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 6,354 7,034 6,928 (9.67) 1.53 January-June 2,415 3,218 3,293 (24.95) (2.27) January-March 1,602 1,925 1,993 (16.76) (3.41) April-June 813 1,293 1,300 (37.14) (0.52) July-December 3,939 3,816 3,635 3.21 4.96 July-September 2,318 2,373 2,256 (2.28) 5.17

October-December 1,620 a/ 1,443 1,380 12.24 4.62

AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) JANUARY-DECEMBER 2,504 2,684 2,661 (6.70) 0.86 January-June 967 1,131 1,137 (14.47) (0.55) January-March 639 675 678 (5.41) (0.37) April-June 328 455 459 (27.92) (0.81) July-December 1,537 1,553 1,524 (1.04) 1.91 July-September 900 949 921 (5.17) 3.10

October-December 637 a/ 604 604 5.46 0.09

YIELD/HECTARE JANUARY-DECEMBER 2.54 2.62 2.60 (3.19) 0.66 January-June 2.50 2.85 2.90 (12.25) (1.73) January-March 2.51 2.85 2.94 (12.01) (3.04) April-June 2.48 2.84 2.83 (12.79) 0.29 July-December 2.56 2.46 2.39 4.30 3.00 July-September 2.58 2.50 2.45 3.05 2.01

October-December 2.54 a/ 2.39 2.29 6.43 4.53

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.a/Standing crop

Oct '10 / 2009Oct '10 Rd 2009 / 2008 PERCENT CHANGE

ITEM2010

2009 2008

20.00 22.50 25.00 27.50 30.00 32.50 35.00 37.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 16. Rice: Monthly wholesale prices, Philipiines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

8.50 10.00 11.50 13.00 14.50 16.00 17.50 19.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 15. Palay: Monthly farmgate prices,Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

22.00 24.50 27.00 29.50 32.00 34.50 37.00 39.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

Figure 17. Rice: Monthly retail prices, Philippines, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

22 9  The October 1, 2010 total rice stocks would be enough for 93 days. Stocks

in NFA depositories would be good for 56 days, while those in the commercial sector would be good for 14 days. Household stocks would last for 23 days.

Around 24 percent of the current stocks were with the households, 16

percent with the commercial warehouses, and 60 percent with the NFA depositories.

2.2 Corn Stock

The total corn stock inventory as of October 1, 2010 was estimated at

354.0 thousand metric tons. This was 22.1 percent higher compared to last month’s volume, but 2.4 percent lower than last year’s level.

Compared to last month’s records, stocks in the household sector grew by

23.7 percent. In the commercial sector, inventory was higher by 25.0 percent. On the other hand, stocks in NFA depositories went down by 43.7 percent.

This month’s estimates showed stock drawdown by 28.1 percent in commercial warehouses and by 85.0 percent in NFA depositories compared to last year’s levels. However, stocks in the households grew by 35.7 percent.

Of this month’s total corn stocks, around 67 percent were with the

households, 31 percent with the commercial warehouses and 2 percent with the NFA depositories.

Table 8. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by croptype, Philippines, January-December, 2008-2010

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 6,354 7,034 6,928 (9.67) 1.53 White 2,157 2,316 2,255 (6.89) 2.74 Yellow 4,197 4,718 4,674 (11.04) 0.94 January-June 2,415 3,218 3,293 (24.95) (2.27) White 751 865 887 (13.24) (2.42) Yellow 1,664 2,353 2,406 (29.26) (2.21) January-March 1,602 1,925 1,993 (16.76) (3.41) White 454 490 482 (7.46) 1.71 Yellow 1,148 1,434 1,511 (19.94) (5.04) April-June 813 1,293 1,300 (37.14) (0.52) White 297 375 404 (20.80) (7.35) Yellow 516 918 895 (43.81) 2.56 July-December 3,939 3,816 3,635 3.21 4.96 White 1,406 1,451 1,368 (3.10) 6.09 Yellow 2,532 2,365 2,268 7.09 4.28 July-September 2,318 2,373 2,256 (2.28) 5.17 White 848 830 782 2.17 6.12 Yellow 1,470 1,542 1,473 (4.67) 4.67 October-December 1,620 a/ 1,443 1,380 12.24 4.62 White 558 621 585 (10.15) 6.06 Yellow 1,062 823 794 29.14 3.56 AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) JANUARY-DECEMBER 2,504 2,684 2,661 (6.70) 0.86 White 1,339 1,403 1,367 (4.56) 2.59 Yellow 1,165 1,281 1,294 (9.04) (0.97) January-June 967 1,131 1,137 (14.47) (0.55) White 467 506 509 (7.78) (0.54) Yellow 500 624 628 (19.90) (0.56) January-March 639 675 678 (5.41) (0.37) White 292 289 287 1.04 0.68 Yellow 346 386 390 (10.24) (1.15) April-June 328 455 459 (27.92) (0.81) White 175 217 222 (19.55) (2.12) Yellow 154 238 237 (35.53) 0.42 July-December 1,537 1,553 1,524 (1.04) 1.91 White 872 896 858 (2.74) 4.45 Yellow 665 657 666 1.28 (1.36) July-September 900 949 921 (5.17) 3.10 White 521 534 495 (2.49) 7.78 Yellow 380 415 425 (8.63) (2.34) October-December 637 a/ 604 604 5.46 0.09 White 351 363 363 (3.11) (0.09) Yellow 286 241 241 18.32 0.36 YIELD/HECTARE (MT) JANUARY-DECEMBER 2.54 2.62 2.60 (3.19) 0.66 White 1.61 1.65 1.65 (2.44) 0.15 Yellow 3.60 3.68 3.61 (2.20) 1.93 January-June 2.50 2.85 2.90 (12.25) (1.73) White 1.61 1.71 1.74 (5.91) (1.89) Yellow 3.33 3.77 3.83 (11.68) (1.66) January-March 2.51 2.85 2.94 (12.01) (3.04) White 1.55 1.69 1.68 (8.41) 1.02 Yellow 3.32 3.72 3.87 (10.81) (3.93) April-June 2.48 2.84 2.83 (12.79) 0.29 White 1.70 1.73 1.82 (1.55) (5.34) Yellow 3.36 3.85 3.77 (12.83) 2.13 July-December 2.56 2.46 2.39 4.30 3.00 White 1.61 1.62 1.59 (0.38) 1.57 Yellow 3.81 3.60 3.41 5.74 5.72 July-September 2.58 2.50 2.45 3.05 2.01 White 1.63 1.56 1.58 4.77 (1.54) Yellow 3.87 3.71 3.46 4.33 7.18 October-December 2.54 a/ 2.39 2.29 6.43 4.53 White 1.59 1.71 1.61 (7.27) 6.16 Yellow 3.72 3.41 3.30 9.15 3.19

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.a/ Standing crop

Oct '10 RdITEM 2010 2009 2008 PERCENT CHANGE

Oct '10 / 2009 2009 / 2008

237.6

111.5

4.9

192.1

89.2

8.7

175.1 155.1

32.6

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

Household Commercial NFA

( in '000 mt)

Figure 14. Inventory of corn stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009 and 2010

October 2010 September 2010 October 2009

8 23 

Table 9. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by croptype, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011

Planting intentions in Cagayan Valley, Western Visayas and

SOCCSKSARGEN increased in anticipation of more favorable weather conditions due to the onset of rainfall. Expected corn output in these regions would grow by 54.9%, 53.7% and 22.4%, respectively. The probable harvest areas would expand by 6.0% to 26.0%.

Harvest area in ARMM would expand by 21.1% or 16.86 thousand

hectares due to cropping movement in Maguindanao and utilization of some areas that are left in fallow in Lanao Del Sur.

2.0 Rice and Corn Stocks

2.1 Rice Stock The October 1, 2010 total rice stock inventory reached 3.15 million

metric tons. It surpassed last month’s level by 3.9 percent and last year’s record by 26.8 percent.

Comparative estimates with the stocks of last month showed significant

increases in the households by 23.9 percent and those in commercial warehouses by 26.9 percent. On the other hand, stocks in NFA depositories of which 85 percent were imported rice, dropped by 6.6 percent.

Compared to last year’s inventory levels, stocks in commercial sector went up by 16.1 percent and those in NFA depositories by 52.5 percent. In contrast, stocks in the households dropped by 6.7 percent.

Oct '10 Rd b/

PRODUCTION ('000 MT) 1,986 1,602 1,925 23.96 (16.76) White 534 454 490 17.54 (7.46) Yellow 1,453 1,148 1,434 26.50 (19.94)

AREA HARVESTED ('000 Ha) 692 639 675 8.36 (5.41) White 315 292 289 7.66 1.04 Yellow 377 346 386 8.94 (10.24)

YIELD/HECTARE (MT) 2.87 2.51 2.85 14.40 (12.01) White 1.69 1.55 1.69 9.17 (8.41) Yellow 3.85 3.32 3.72 16.12 (10.81)

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.b/Planting intention

ITEM2011

2010 2009 PERCENT CHANGE

Oct '10 / 2010 2010 / 2009

767.0 483.5

1,900.6

619.0 380.9

2,034.1

822.4

416.5

1,246.4

0300600900

1200150018002100

Household Commercial NFA

(in '000 mt)

Figure 13. Inventory of rice stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009 and 2010

October 2010 September 2010 October 2009

2.30

2.35

2.40

2.45

2.50

2.55

2.60

2.65

1,400

1,425

1,450

1,475

1,500

1,525

1,550

1,575

2008 2009 2010

Figure 11. Corn Harvest Area and Yield, Philippines,July-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

Area Yield

Ha

rve

stA

rea

('0

00

Ha

)

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

1,925

1,602

1,986

675 639 692

2.43 2.51 2.59 2.67 2.75 2.83 2.91 2.99 3.07

100 350 600 850

1,100 1,350 1,600 1,850 2,100

2009 2010 2011

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)H

arv

es

t A

rea

('0

00

Ha

)

Figure 12. CORN: Production, Area and Yield, Philippines,January-March 2011 Forecast and 2009-2010 Estimates

Production Area Yield

24 7 

The standing corn crop for the October-December 2010 points to a production gain of 12.2% from last year’s level of 1.44 million MT to 1.62 million MT. Expected harvest area may expand by 5.5%, from 604 thousand hectares to 637 thousand hectares. Yield may improve by 6.4%, from 2.39 MT per hectare to 2.54 MT per hectare.

A remarkable increase in corn output is expected in Cagayan Valley by 58.0% or 89.11 thousand MT as harvest area may expand by 33.2% or 14.90 thousand hectares. Also in Northern Mindanao, corn output would increase by 19.8% or 60.92 thousand MT. This would come from the expansion in harvest area by 8.0% or 8.1 thousand hectares.

January-March 2011 Crop Based on farmers’ planting

intentions, the January-March 2011 production, area and yield are expected to be higher than the 1st quarter 2010 levels by 24.0%, 8.4%, and 14.4%, respectively.

Table 10. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010

 

Level % Level % Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 1,602,262 1,924,900 (322,638) (16.76) 812,901 1,293,162 (480,261) (37.14) 2,315,279 2,372,571 (57,292) (2.41) 1,620,113 1,443,400 176,713 12.24 CAR 47,017 76,490 (29,473) (38.53) 10,526 29,777 (19,251) (64.65) 92,471 76,641 15,830 20.65 22,636 18,865 3,771 19.99 Ilocos 243,467 242,528 939 0.39 100,950 90,045 10,905 12.11 8,039 12,851 (4,812) (37.44) 6,138 5,679 459 8.08 Cagayan Valley 326,177 465,951 (139,774) (30.00) 71,240 341,339 (270,099) (79.13) 620,946 637,322 (16,376) (2.57) 242,694 153,586 89,108 58.02 Central Luzon 86,598 91,494 (4,896) (5.35) 87,795 97,708 (9,913) (10.15) 12,924 16,933 (4,009) (23.68) 8,085 11,110 (3,025) (27.23) Calabarzon 7,080 12,043 (4,963) (41.21) 2,240 8,563 (6,323) (73.84) 28,348 21,127 7,221 34.18 20,808 10,216 10,592 103.68 Mimaropa 15,398 23,626 (8,228) (34.83) 27,235 35,886 (8,651) (24.11) 18,283 39,425 (21,142) (53.63) 6,578 4,969 1,609 32.38 Bicol 37,330 41,593 (4,263) (10.25) 42,304 63,389 (21,085) (33.26) 38,241 60,791 (22,550) (37.09) 58,339 31,343 26,996 86.13 Western Visayas 60,475 98,659 (38,184) (38.70) 18,998 38,845 (19,847) (51.09) 89,616 98,292 (8,676) (8.83) 77,056 37,048 40,008 107.99 Central Visayas 23,489 27,570 (4,081) (14.80) 2,791 6,526 (3,735) (57.23) 105,035 112,332 (7,297) (6.50) 45,528 40,051 5,477 13.68 Eastern Visayas 11,755 13,732 (1,977) (14.40) 34,060 33,892 168 0.50 20,556 22,786 (2,230) (9.79) 23,956 24,411 (455) (1.86) Zamboanga Peninsula 29,998 32,514 (2,516) (7.74) 5,728 22,350 (16,622) (74.37) 96,004 64,715 31,289 48.35 61,522 57,669 3,853 6.68 Northern Mindanao 273,465 297,501 (24,036) (8.08) 49,854 81,117 (31,263) (38.54) 448,340 484,290 (35,950) (7.42) 368,632 307,716 60,916 19.80 Davao Region 35,501 34,774 727 2.09 31,702 51,756 (20,054) (38.75) 67,573 68,381 (808) (1.18) 64,230 70,167 (5,937) (8.46) SOCCSKSARGEN 203,117 251,345 (48,228) (19.19) 121,639 211,056 (89,417) (42.37) 384,722 348,348 36,374 10.44 352,758 335,880 16,878 5.03 Caraga 460 505 (45) (8.91) 27,406 6,145 21,261 345.99 19,873 42,859 (22,986) (53.63) 46,767 39,082 7,685 19.66 ARMM 200,935 214,575 (13,640) (6.36) 178,433 174,768 3,665 2.10 264,308 265,478 (1,170) (0.44) 214,386 295,608 (81,222) (27.48)

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 638,731 675,228 (36,497) (5.41) 328,234 455,359 (127,125) (27.92) 899,402 949,175 (49,773) (5.24) 637,101 604,128 32,973 5.46 CAR 14,841 19,938 (5,097) (25.56) 2,957 6,980 (4,023) (57.64) 25,643 22,881 2,762 12.07 5,550 5,413 137 2.53 Ilocos 48,744 47,493 1,251 2.63 22,268 19,410 2,858 14.72 2,552 4,476 (1,924) (42.98) 1,762 1,774 (12) (0.68) Cagayan Valley 119,993 126,821 (6,828) (5.38) 30,051 84,134 (54,083) (64.28) 154,585 161,230 (6,645) (4.12) 59,831 44,936 14,895 33.15 Central Luzon 18,324 18,148 176 0.97 17,263 19,433 (2,170) (11.17) 4,592 5,538 (946) (17.08) 2,239 2,630 (391) (14.87) Calabarzon 5,126 6,322 (1,196) (18.92) 1,681 5,104 (3,423) (67.07) 12,242 16,249 (4,007) (24.66) 10,638 7,529 3,109 41.29 Mimaropa 4,771 6,473 (1,702) (26.29) 7,756 8,982 (1,226) (13.65) 7,069 13,221 (6,152) (46.53) 3,388 2,691 697 25.90 Bicol 22,022 26,479 (4,457) (16.83) 23,173 25,071 (1,898) (7.57) 25,534 41,395 (15,861) (38.32) 31,083 13,770 17,313 125.73 Western Visayas 29,206 39,094 (9,888) (25.29) 10,376 17,284 (6,908) (39.97) 45,115 48,063 (2,948) (6.13) 27,359 21,328 6,031 28.28 Central Visayas 40,723 41,154 (431) (1.05) 6,631 11,336 (4,705) (41.50) 115,011 123,082 (8,071) (6.56) 53,615 55,901 (2,286) (4.09) Eastern Visayas 7,908 10,012 (2,104) (21.01) 23,402 22,874 528 2.31 15,214 16,699 (1,485) (8.89) 18,148 18,878 (730) (3.87) Zamboanga Peninsula 22,859 19,667 3,192 16.23 3,908 16,139 (12,231) (75.79) 68,684 60,048 8,636 14.38 47,217 39,996 7,221 18.05 Northern Mindanao 107,217 108,036 (819) (0.76) 22,907 29,529 (6,622) (22.43) 130,801 142,834 (12,033) (8.42) 109,089 100,974 8,115 8.04 Davao Region 28,977 28,194 783 2.78 26,978 40,157 (13,179) (32.82) 51,577 51,999 (422) (0.81) 46,257 54,324 (8,067) (14.85) SOCCSKSARGEN 87,594 99,988 (12,394) (12.40) 49,186 74,349 (25,163) (33.84) 140,766 135,398 5,368 3.96 129,135 120,447 8,688 7.21 Caraga 376 475 (99) (20.84) 10,649 3,664 6,985 190.64 8,704 17,334 (8,630) (49.79) 19,872 18,047 1,825 10.11 ARMM 80,050 76,934 3,116 4.05 69,048 70,913 (1,865) (2.63) 91,313 88,728 2,585 2.91 71,918 95,490 (23,572) (24.69)

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 2.51 2.85 (0.34) (12.01) 2.48 2.84 (0.36) (12.79) 2.57 2.50 0.07 2.99 2.54 2.39 0.15 6.43 CAR 3.17 3.84 (0.67) (17.42) 3.56 4.27 (0.71) (16.56) 3.61 3.35 0.26 7.66 4.08 3.49 0.59 17.03 Ilocos 4.99 5.11 (0.11) (2.19) 4.53 4.64 (0.11) (2.28) 3.15 2.87 0.28 9.72 3.48 3.20 0.28 8.82 Cagayan Valley 2.72 3.67 (0.96) (26.01) 2.37 4.06 (1.69) (41.57) 4.02 3.95 0.06 1.62 4.06 3.42 0.64 18.68 Central Luzon 4.73 5.04 (0.32) (6.26) 5.09 5.03 0.06 1.15 2.81 3.06 (0.24) (7.95) 3.61 4.22 (0.61) (14.52) Calabarzon 1.38 1.90 (0.52) (27.49) 1.33 1.68 (0.35) (20.57) 2.32 1.30 1.02 78.10 1.96 1.36 0.60 44.15 Mimaropa 3.23 3.65 (0.42) (11.58) 3.51 4.00 (0.48) (12.11) 2.59 2.98 (0.40) (13.27) 1.94 1.85 0.10 5.15 Bicol 1.70 1.57 0.12 7.92 1.83 2.53 (0.70) (27.80) 1.50 1.47 0.03 1.98 1.88 2.28 (0.40) (17.54) Western Visayas 2.07 2.52 (0.45) (17.95) 1.83 2.25 (0.42) (18.53) 1.99 2.05 (0.06) (2.87) 2.82 1.74 1.08 62.14 Central Visayas 0.58 0.67 (0.09) (13.90) 0.42 0.58 (0.15) (26.89) 0.91 0.91 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.72 0.13 18.52 Eastern Visayas 1.49 1.37 0.11 8.38 1.46 1.48 (0.03) (1.77) 1.35 1.36 (0.01) (0.98) 1.32 1.29 0.03 2.08 Zamboanga Peninsula 1.31 1.65 (0.34) (20.62) 1.47 1.38 0.08 5.84 1.40 1.08 0.32 29.70 1.30 1.44 (0.14) (9.63) Northern Mindanao 2.55 2.75 (0.20) (7.38) 2.18 2.75 (0.57) (20.77) 3.43 3.39 0.04 1.09 3.38 3.05 0.33 10.88 Davao Region 1.23 1.23 (0.01) (0.67) 1.18 1.29 (0.11) (8.82) 1.31 1.32 (0.00) (0.37) 1.39 1.29 0.10 7.50 SOCCSKSARGEN 2.32 2.51 (0.19) (7.75) 2.47 2.84 (0.37) (12.88) 2.73 2.57 0.16 6.23 2.73 2.79 (0.06) (2.04) Caraga 1.22 1.06 0.16 15.07 2.57 1.68 0.90 53.45 2.28 2.47 (0.19) (7.66) 2.35 2.17 0.19 8.67 ARMM 2.51 2.79 (0.28) (10.00) 2.58 2.46 0.12 4.85 2.89 2.99 (0.10) (3.26) 2.98 3.10 (0.11) (3.71)

2010Oct '10 / 2009

ChangeOCTOBER-DECEMBER

2009

JULY-SEPTEMBER

2009Oct '10 Rd a/

APRIL-JUNE

2009Change

2010 / 20092010

JANUARY-MARCH

2010 / 2009REGION

2009Change

2010 Oct '10 Rd Oct '10 / 20092010 Change

3,635 3,816 3,935

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2008 2009 2010

Figure 10. Corn Production, Philippines,July-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

Oct-Dec July-Sept

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

6 25 

2.32

2.42

2.52

2.62

2.72

2.82

2.92

3.02

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

2008 2009 2010

Figure 9. Corn Area Harvested and Yield, Philippines, January-June 2008-2010 Estimates

Area Yield

Are

aH

arv

es

ted

('0

00

Ha

)

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

Table 11. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by semester, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2009-2010

Cagayan Valley and SOCCSKSARGEN were severely affected by the El Niño. Corn production in these regions decreased by 409.87 thousand MT and 137.65 thousand MT, respectively. Harvest areas were reduced by 60.9 thousand hectares in Cagayan Valley and by 37.56 thousand hectares in SOCCSKSARGEN.

July-December 2010 Crop Production for the July-December 2010 may surpass last year’s output

by 3.2%, from 3.82 million MT to 3.94 million MT. This could be attributed to the improvement in yield by 4.3%, from 2.46 MT per hectare to 2.56 MT per hectare. The July-September 2010 corn production was 2.32 million MT, 2.3% below the 2009 level of 2.37 million MT. Notwithstanding the improvement in yield from 2.50 MT per hectare to 2.58 MT per hectare, harvest area decreased by 5.2%, from 949.18 thousand hectares to 900.10 thousand hectares. The prolonged dry spell resulted in the movement of cropping from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter in most of the regions.

Level % Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 2,415,163 3,218,062 (802,899) (24.95) 3,938,571 3,815,971 122,600 3.21 6,353,734 7,034,033 (680,299) (9.67) CAR 57,543 106,267 (48,724) (45.85) 115,107 95,506 19,601 20.52 172,650 201,773 (29,123) (14.43) Ilocos 344,417 332,573 11,844 3.56 14,177 18,530 (4,353) (23.49) 358,594 351,103 7,491 2.13 Cagayan Valley 397,417 807,290 (409,873) (50.77) 863,640 790,908 72,732 9.20 1,261,057 1,598,198 (337,141) (21.10) Central Luzon 174,393 189,202 (14,809) (7.83) 24,188 28,043 (3,855) (13.75) 198,581 217,245 (18,664) (8.59) Calabarzon 9,320 20,606 (11,286) (54.77) 49,156 31,343 17,813 56.83 58,476 51,949 6,527 12.56 Mimaropa 42,633 59,512 (16,879) (28.36) 24,861 44,394 (19,533) (44.00) 67,494 103,906 (36,412) (35.04) Bicol 79,634 104,982 (25,348) (24.15) 96,580 92,134 4,446 4.83 176,214 197,116 (20,902) (10.60) Western Visayas 79,473 137,504 (58,031) (42.20) 166,672 135,340 31,332 23.15 246,145 272,844 (26,699) (9.79) Central Visayas 26,280 34,096 (7,816) (22.92) 150,563 152,383 (1,820) (1.19) 176,843 186,479 (9,636) (5.17) Eastern Visayas 45,815 47,624 (1,809) (3.80) 44,512 47,197 (2,685) (5.69) 90,327 94,821 (4,494) (4.74) Zamboanga Peninsula 35,726 54,864 (19,138) (34.88) 157,526 122,384 35,142 28.71 193,252 177,248 16,004 9.03 Northern Mindanao 323,319 378,618 (55,299) (14.61) 816,972 792,006 24,966 3.15 1,140,291 1,170,624 (30,333) (2.59) Davao Region 67,203 86,530 (19,327) (22.34) 131,803 138,548 (6,745) (4.87) 199,006 225,078 (26,072) (11.58) SOCCSKSARGEN 324,756 462,401 (137,645) (29.77) 737,480 684,228 53,252 7.78 1,062,236 1,146,629 (84,393) (7.36) Caraga 27,866 6,650 21,216 319.04 66,640 81,941 (15,301) (18.67) 94,506 88,591 5,915 6.68 ARMM 379,368 389,343 (9,975) (2.56) 478,694 561,086 (82,392) (14.68) 858,062 950,429 (92,367) (9.72)

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 966,965 1,130,587 (163,622) (14.47) 1,537,168 1,553,303 (16,135) (1.04) 2,504,133 2,683,890 (179,757) (6.70) CAR 17,798 26,918 (9,120) (33.88) 31,193 28,294 2,899 10.25 48,991 55,212 (6,221) (11.27) Ilocos 71,012 66,903 4,109 6.14 4,314 6,250 (1,936) (30.98) 75,326 73,153 2,173 2.97 Cagayan Valley 150,044 210,955 (60,911) (28.87) 214,416 206,166 8,250 4.00 364,460 417,121 (52,661) (12.62) Central Luzon 35,587 37,581 (1,994) (5.31) 7,496 8,168 (672) (8.23) 43,083 45,749 (2,666) (5.83) Calabarzon 6,807 11,426 (4,619) (40.43) 22,880 23,778 (898) (3.78) 29,687 35,204 (5,517) (15.67) Mimaropa 12,527 15,455 (2,928) (18.95) 10,457 15,912 (5,455) (34.28) 22,984 31,367 (8,383) (26.73) Bicol 45,195 51,550 (6,355) (12.33) 56,617 55,165 1,452 2.63 101,812 106,715 (4,903) (4.59) Western Visayas 39,582 56,378 (16,796) (29.79) 72,474 69,391 3,083 4.44 112,056 125,769 (13,713) (10.90) Central Visayas 47,354 52,490 (5,136) (9.78) 168,626 178,983 (10,357) (5.79) 215,980 231,473 (15,493) (6.69) Eastern Visayas 31,310 32,886 (1,576) (4.79) 33,362 35,577 (2,215) (6.23) 64,672 68,463 (3,791) (5.54) Zamboanga Peninsula 26,767 35,806 (9,039) (25.24) 115,901 100,044 15,857 15.85 142,668 135,850 6,818 5.02 Northern Mindanao 130,124 137,565 (7,441) (5.41) 239,890 243,808 (3,918) (1.61) 370,014 381,373 (11,359) (2.98) Davao Region 55,955 68,351 (12,396) (18.14) 97,834 106,323 (8,489) (7.98) 153,789 174,674 (20,885) (11.96) SOCCSKSARGEN 136,780 174,337 (37,557) (21.54) 269,901 255,845 14,056 5.49 406,681 430,182 (23,501) (5.46) Caraga 11,025 4,139 6,886 166.37 28,576 35,381 (6,805) (19.23) 39,601 39,520 81 0.20 ARMM 149,098 147,847 1,251 0.85 163,231 184,218 (20,987) (11.39) 312,329 332,065 (19,736) (5.94)

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 2.50 2.85 (0.35) (12.25) 2.56 2.46 0.11 4.30 2.54 2.62 (0.08) (3.19) CAR 3.23 3.95 (0.71) (18.10) 3.69 3.38 0.31 9.32 3.52 3.65 (0.13) (3.57) Ilocos 4.85 4.97 (0.12) (2.43) 3.29 2.96 0.32 10.84 4.76 4.80 (0.04) (0.81) Cagayan Valley 2.65 3.83 (1.18) (30.79) 4.03 3.84 0.19 4.99 3.46 3.83 (0.37) (9.69) Central Luzon 4.90 5.03 (0.13) (2.66) 3.23 3.43 (0.21) (6.01) 4.61 4.75 (0.14) (2.93) Calabarzon 1.37 1.80 (0.43) (24.08) 2.15 1.32 0.83 62.99 1.97 1.48 0.49 33.48 Mimaropa 3.40 3.85 (0.45) (11.62) 2.38 2.79 (0.41) (14.79) 2.94 3.31 (0.38) (11.35) Bicol 1.76 2.04 (0.27) (13.48) 1.71 1.67 0.04 2.14 1.73 1.85 (0.12) (6.30) Western Visayas 2.01 2.44 (0.43) (17.68) 2.30 1.95 0.35 17.91 2.20 2.17 0.03 1.25 Central Visayas 0.55 0.65 (0.09) (14.56) 0.89 0.85 0.04 4.87 0.82 0.81 0.01 1.64 Eastern Visayas 1.46 1.45 0.02 1.04 1.33 1.33 0.01 0.57 1.40 1.38 0.01 0.84 Zamboanga Peninsula 1.33 1.53 (0.20) (12.89) 1.36 1.22 0.14 11.10 1.35 1.30 0.05 3.82 Northern Mindanao 2.48 2.75 (0.27) (9.72) 3.41 3.25 0.16 4.84 3.08 3.07 0.01 0.40 Davao Region 1.20 1.27 (0.06) (5.13) 1.35 1.30 0.04 3.39 1.29 1.29 0.01 0.42 SOCCSKSARGEN 2.37 2.65 (0.28) (10.48) 2.73 2.67 0.06 2.17 2.61 2.67 (0.05) (2.01) Caraga 2.53 1.61 0.92 57.31 2.33 2.32 0.02 0.69 2.39 2.24 0.14 6.46 ARMM 2.54 2.63 (0.09) (3.38) 2.93 3.05 (0.11) (3.72) 2.75 2.86 (0.11) (4.01)

Oct '10 / 2009Change

Oct '10 Rd

2010Oct '10 / 2009 2009

Change

Oct '10 Rd

20102009

Change2010 / 2009

REGION2009

JANUARY-DECEMBER

2010

JANUARY-JUNE JULY-DECEMBER

2008 2009 2010July-Dec 3,635 3,816 3,935 Jan-June 3,293 3,218 2,415

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

Figure 7. Corn Production, Philippines, January-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

6,3516,928 7,034

2,415

3,293 3,218

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2008 2009 2010

Figure 8. Corn Production, Philippines,January-June 2008-2010 Estimates

Apr-June Jan-Mar

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

26 5  1.2 CORN

Calendar Year 2010 Forecast Total corn production for calendar year 2010 is forecast at 6.35 million

MT, 9.7% lower than the 2009 output of 7.03 million MT. This is due to the adverse effects of the El Niño phenomenon that resulted in the contraction of harvest area by 6.7%, 2.68 million hectares in 2009 to 2.50 million hectares this year. Yield per hectare declined by 3.2%.

January–June 2010 Crop The adverse effects of

the El Niño phenomenon brought about a 25.0% reduction of the 1st semester corn production to 2.42 million MT from last year’s level of 3.22 million MT. Harvest area also decreased by 14.5% from last year’s 1.13 million hectares. Similarly, yield declined by 12.3%.

Table 12. CORN: Final estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January-March, 2009-2011

2011

Level % Level %

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 1,986,172 1,602,262 1,924,900 383,910 23.96 (322,638) (16.76) CAR 76,225 47,017 76,490 29,208 62.12 (29,473) (38.53) Ilocos 245,592 243,467 242,528 2,125 0.87 939 0.39 Cagayan Valley 505,372 326,177 465,951 179,195 54.94 (139,774) (30.00) Central Luzon 78,014 86,598 91,494 (8,584) (9.91) (4,896) (5.35) Calabarzon 12,243 7,080 12,043 5,163 72.92 (4,963) (41.21) Mimaropa 17,562 15,398 23,626 2,164 14.05 (8,228) (34.83) Bicol 44,939 37,330 41,593 7,609 20.38 (4,263) (10.25) Western Visayas 92,958 60,475 98,659 32,483 53.71 (38,184) (38.70) Central Visayas 25,331 23,489 27,570 1,842 7.84 (4,081) (14.80) Eastern Visayas 13,898 11,755 13,732 2,143 18.23 (1,977) (14.40) Zamboanga Peninsula 33,817 29,998 32,514 3,819 12.73 (2,516) (7.74) Northern Mindanao 296,423 273,465 297,501 22,958 8.40 (24,036) (8.08) Davao Region 35,698 35,501 34,774 197 0.55 727 2.09 SOCCSKSARGEN 248,624 203,117 251,345 45,507 22.40 (48,228) (19.19) Caraga 2,787 460 505 2,327 505.87 (45) (8.91) ARMM 256,689 200,935 214,575 55,754 27.75 (13,640) (6.36)

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 692,113 638,731 675,228 53,382 8.36 (36,497) (5.41) CAR 19,538 14,841 19,938 4,697 31.65 (5,097) (25.56) Ilocos 48,334 48,744 47,493 (410) (0.84) 1,251 2.63 Cagayan Valley 127,305 119,993 126,821 7,312 6.09 (6,828) (5.38) Central Luzon 16,456 18,324 18,148 (1,868) (10.19) 176 0.97 Calabarzon 5,927 5,126 6,322 801 15.63 (1,196) (18.92) Mimaropa 5,049 4,771 6,473 278 5.83 (1,702) (26.29) Bicol 29,609 22,022 26,479 7,587 34.45 (4,457) (16.83) Western Visayas 36,784 29,206 39,094 7,578 25.95 (9,888) (25.29) Central Visayas 39,543 40,723 41,154 (1,180) (2.90) (431) (1.05) Eastern Visayas 8,990 7,908 10,012 1,082 13.68 (2,104) (21.01) Zamboanga Peninsula 22,617 22,859 19,667 (242) (1.06) 3,192 16.23 Northern Mindanao 110,191 107,217 108,036 2,974 2.77 (819) (0.76) Davao Region 28,003 28,977 28,194 (974) (3.36) 783 2.78 SOCCSKSARGEN 95,309 87,594 99,988 7,715 8.81 (12,394) (12.40) Caraga 1,551 376 475 1,175 312.50 (99) (20.84) ARMM 96,907 80,050 76,934 16,857 21.06 3,116 4.05

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 2.87 2.51 2.85 0.36 14.40 (0.34) (12.01) CAR 3.90 3.17 3.84 0.73 23.15 (0.67) (17.42) Ilocos 5.08 4.99 5.11 0.09 1.73 (0.11) (2.19) Cagayan Valley 3.97 2.72 3.67 1.25 46.04 (0.96) (26.01) Central Luzon 4.74 4.73 5.04 0.01 0.31 (0.32) (6.26) Calabarzon 2.07 1.38 1.90 0.68 49.55 (0.52) (27.49) Mimaropa 3.48 3.23 3.65 0.25 7.77 (0.42) (11.58) Bicol 1.52 1.70 1.57 (0.18) (10.46) 0.12 7.92 Western Visayas 2.53 2.07 2.52 0.46 22.05 (0.45) (17.95) Central Visayas 0.64 0.58 0.67 0.06 11.06 (0.09) (13.90) Eastern Visayas 1.55 1.49 1.37 0.06 4.00 0.11 8.38 Zamboanga Peninsula 1.50 1.31 1.65 0.18 13.94 (0.34) (20.62) Northern Mindanao 2.69 2.55 2.75 0.14 5.47 (0.20) (7.38) Davao Region 1.27 1.23 1.23 0.05 4.05 (0.01) (0.67) SOCCSKSARGEN 2.61 2.32 2.51 0.29 12.50 (0.19) (7.75) Caraga 1.80 1.22 1.06 0.57 46.88 0.16 15.07 ARMM 2.65 2.51 2.79 0.14 5.53 (0.28) (10.00)

NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.b/ Planting Intentions

JANUARY-MARCHREGION

2010 / 20092010 2009Change

Oct '10 b/ 2011 / 2010

3,9413,492

4,053

1,099 1,024 1,134

3.32

3.40

3.48

3.56

3.64

3.72

100 600

1,100 1,600 2,100 2,600 3,100 3,600 4,100

2009 2010 2011

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)H

arv

es

t Are

a (

'00

0 H

a)

Figure 6. PALAY: Production, Area and Yield, Philippines, January-March 2011 Forecast and 2009-2010 Estimates

Production Area Yield

4 27 

Table 13. Percentage change in the inventory of rice stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009-2010

Table 14. Percentage change in the inventory of corn stocks, Philippines, September 2010 and October 2009-2010

Based on standing crop, the October-December 2010 palay output would increase by 25.8% from last year’s level of 5.37 million MT to 6.75 million MT. Harvest area may expand by 14.4%, from 1.61 million hectares to 1.84 million hectares. Yield may increase by 10.0%, from 3.33 MT per hectare to 3.67 MT per hectare.

January-March 2011 Crop Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the January-March 2011

production and area are expected to surpass last year’s levels by 16.1% and 10.8%, respectively. Yield may improve by 4.8%.

Palay output in Cagayan Valley and Western Visayas are expected to

surpass last year’s levels by 66.2% (244.53 thousand MT) and 44.3% (186.80 thousand MT), respectively. Probable harvest areas in these regions would increase by at least 36.0% each compared to last year’s level. This is due to the movement of cropping that may extend harvesting up to the first quarter of 2011.

Oct. 2010/ Oct. 2010/Sep. 2010 Oct. 2009

TOTAL STOCKS 3.9 26.8 Household 23.9 (6.7) Commercial 26.9 16.1 NFA (6.6) 52.5

ITEM

Oct. 2010/ Oct. 2010/Sep. 2010 Oct. 2009

TOTAL STOCKS 1/ 22.1 (2.4) Household 23.7 35.7 Commercial 25.0 (28.1) NFA (43.7) (85.0) 1/ Excludes corn stocks held by commercial livestock and poultry producers and corn mixed in feedstock.

ITEM

9,4019,6958,890

750

2,250

3,750

5,250

6,750

8,250

9,750

2008 2009 2010

Figure 4. Palay Production, Philippines,July-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

Oct-Dec July-Sept

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

3.25

3.35

3.45

3.55

3.65

3.75

3.85

3.95

2,310

2,360

2,410

2,460

2,510

2,560

2,610

2008 2009 2010

Figure 5. Palay Harvest Area and Yield, Philippines, July-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

Area Yield

Ha

rve

st A

rea

('0

00

Ha

)

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

28 3 

The other regions that incurred large decreases in production were as follows: SOCCSKSARGEN, 92.12 thousand MT; CALABARZON, 59.89 thousand MT; MIMAROPA, 34.26 thousand MT; CAR, 31.36 thousand MT; Bicol, 26.38 thousand MT; Northern Mindanao, 25.92 thousand MT and Zamboanga Peninsula, 19.1 thousand MT.

July-December 2010 Crop Production for July-December 2010 may surpass last year’s output by

5.8%, from 8.89 million MT to 9.40 million MT. This can be attributed to the improvement in yield by 7.3%, from 3.44 MT per hectare in 2009 to 3.69 MT per hectare this year. Harvest area however, may be lower by 1.5%, from 2.59 million hectares to 2.55 million hectares. The July-September 2010 production was 2.65 million MT, 24.8% below the 2009 level of 3.52 million MT. Harvest area decreased by 27.7% from 975.9 thousand hectares. However, yield per hectare improved from 3.61 MT to 3.75 MT. The decrease in harvest area was attributed to the movement of cropping from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter due to delayed onset of rainfall. This was highly observed in Western Visayas, Cagayan Valley, MIMAROPA and Bicol where harvest areas were reduced from 31.9% to 67.4%

Table 15. Palay/Rice: Monthly average prices, by type, by market level, Philippines, and Metro Manila, 2008-2010

2010/2009 2010/2008PHILIPPINESFARMGATE

Jan.-Oct. Ave. 14.54 15.14 15.47 2.18 6.37 January 11.77 14.09 15.23 8.09 29.40 February 12.05 15.49 15.77 1.81 30.87 March 13.02 16.03 16.19 1.00 24.35 April 15.56 15.94 15.51 (2.70) (0.32) May 16.00 15.92 15.34 (3.64) (4.13) June 18.18 15.63 15.50 (0.83) (14.74) July 17.08 15.33 15.59 1.70 (8.72) August 14.92 14.71 15.67 6.53 5.03 September 13.57 14.15 15.28 7.99 12.60 October 13.26 14.08 14.59 3.62 10.03 November 13.19 14.43 December 13.55 14.56 Annual Ave. 14.35 15.03

WHOLESALEJan.-Oct. Ave. 30.06 31.24 31.56 1.01 4.98 January 23.67 29.56 31.27 5.78 32.11 February 24.00 31.54 31.73 0.60 32.21 March 25.60 32.00 31.99 (0.03) 24.96 April 30.18 31.77 31.58 (0.60) 4.64 May 31.38 31.87 31.38 (1.54) - June 36.67 31.79 31.60 (0.60) (13.83) July 35.50 31.63 31.74 0.35 (10.59) August 33.10 31.19 31.69 1.60 (4.26) September 30.66 30.62 31.48 2.81 2.67 October 29.84 30.46 31.12 2.17 4.29 November 28.98 30.80 December 28.83 30.81 Annual Ave. 29.87 31.17

RETAILJan.-Oct. Ave. 32.73 34.16 34.37 0.61 4.99 January 25.84 32.89 34.20 3.98 32.35 February 26.08 34.33 34.46 0.38 32.13 March 27.57 34.62 34.59 (0.09) 25.46 April 32.20 34.53 34.40 (0.38) 6.83 May 33.69 34.51 34.09 (1.22) 1.19 June 38.37 34.55 34.40 (0.43) (10.35) July 38.76 34.44 34.46 0.06 (11.09) August 36.70 34.25 34.47 0.64 (6.08) September 34.59 33.83 34.40 1.68 (0.55) October 33.54 33.63 34.19 1.67 1.94 November 32.65 33.89 December 32.52 33.99 Annual Ave. 32.71 34.12

METRO MANILAWHOLESALE

Jan.-Oct. Ave. 30.70 30.02 30.76 2.44 0.18 January 23.88 29.35 31.22 6.37 30.74 February 24.03 31.38 31.22 (0.51) 29.92 March 27.75 31.38 30.91 (1.50) 11.39 April 32.24 30.30 30.60 0.99 (5.09) May 32.40 30.20 30.60 1.32 (5.56) June 36.67 29.59 30.60 3.41 (16.55) July 36.12 29.35 30.60 4.26 (15.28) August 33.87 28.98 30.60 5.59 (9.65) September 30.46 28.98 30.60 5.59 0.46 October 29.59 30.70 30.60 (0.33) 3.41 November 29.10 31.53 December 28.98 31.22 Annual Ave. 30.42 30.25

RETAILJan.-Oct. Ave. 33.28 35.00 35.00 - 5.18 January 26.00 35.00 35.00 - 34.62 February 26.00 35.00 35.00 - 34.62 March 28.60 35.00 35.00 - 22.38 April 34.00 35.00 35.00 - 2.94 May 34.25 35.00 35.00 - 2.19 June 38.40 35.00 35.00 - (8.85) July 38.50 35.00 35.00 - (9.09) August 37.00 35.00 35.00 - (5.41) September 35.00 35.00 35.00 - - October 35.00 35.00 35.00 - - November 35.00 35.00 December 35.00 35.00 Annual Ave. 33.56 35.00

2010 Percent Change(Peso per kilogram)

MONTH 2008 2009

3.58 3.61 3.63 3.66 3.68 3.71 3.73 3.76 3.78 3.81 3.83

1,250 1,325 1,400 1,475 1,550 1,625 1,700 1,775 1,850 1,925 2,000

2008 2009 2010

Figure 3. Palay Area Harvested and Yield, Philippines,January-June 2008-2010 Estimates

Area Yield

Are

aH

arv

es

ted

('0

00

Ha

)

Yie

ld (

MT

/Ha

)

2 29 Table 16. Corn: Monthly average prices, by type, by market level,

Philippines, 2008-2010

January–June 2010 Crop The country’s production in the first semester of 2010 was 6.62 million

MT, 10.2% lower than last year’s level of 7.38 million MT. This was attributed to the decrease in harvest area by 6.5% or from 1.95 million hectares in 2009 to 1.82 million hectares this year. Yield also declined from 3.79 MT per hectare to 3.64 MT per hectare.

Cagayan Valley incurred

the biggest drop in production at 285 thousand MT or by 23.5% from last year’s level of 1.22 million MT. Harvest area decreased from 293 thousand hectares to 264.4 thousand hectares. Yield per hectare declined from 4.15 MT to 3.52 MT. This was followed by Western Visayas which recorded a drop in production of 240.66 thousand MT or by 32.8% from last year’s record of 734.81 thousand MT. Harvest area was reduced by 28.5%, from 234.48 thousand hectares last year to 167.63 thousand hectares this year. Yield per hectare declined from 3.13 MT to 2.95 MT.

6,6217,121 7,376

-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

2008 2009 2010

Figure 2. Palay Production, Philippines, January-June 2008-2010 Estimates

Jan-Mar Apr-June

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

2010/2009 2010/2008

FARMGATE - YellowJan.-Oct. Ave. 10.71 10.90 10.93 0.27 2.04

January 10.24 12.91 10.13 (21.53) (1.07) February 10.60 13.55 10.82 (20.15) 2.08 March 10.84 12.38 11.40 (7.92) 5.17 April 11.04 12.07 11.30 (6.38) 2.36 May 10.74 11.51 11.02 (4.26) 2.61 June 11.04 10.35 11.40 10.14 3.26 July 10.79 10.05 11.31 12.54 4.82 August 10.51 8.99 10.96 21.91 4.28 September 10.45 8.49 10.38 22.26 (0.67) October 10.84 8.68 10.55 21.54 (2.68) November 11.28 9.49 December 11.71 9.71 Annual Ave. 10.84 10.68

FARMGATE - WhiteJan.-Oct. Ave. 12.37 13.83 12.21 (11.73) (1.33) January 10.15 14.51 13.70 (5.58) 34.98 February 10.77 16.06 13.46 (16.19) 24.98 March 11.55 16.66 13.71 (17.71) 18.70 April 13.09 16.38 13.41 (18.13) 2.44 May 13.81 14.58 12.70 (12.89) (8.04) June 14.85 13.44 12.62 (6.10) (15.02)July 13.12 13.24 12.07 (8.84) (8.00) August 11.97 11.06 10.53 (4.79) (12.03)September 12.02 10.74 9.95 (7.36) (17.22)October 12.40 11.65 9.94 (14.68) (19.84)November 12.53 12.22 December 12.77 12.16 Annual Ave. 12.42 13.56

WHOLESALE - YellowJan.-Oct. Ave. 13.01 14.05 14.27 1.56 9.68 January 12.70 15.25 13.29 (12.85) 4.65 February 12.77 16.19 14.13 (12.72) 10.65 March 13.00 15.14 14.32 (5.42) 10.15 April 13.25 15.05 14.22 (5.51) 7.32 May 13.26 14.40 14.36 (0.28) 8.30 June 13.42 13.90 14.45 3.96 7.68 July 13.34 13.52 14.82 9.62 11.09 August 13.14 12.75 14.77 15.84 12.40 September 12.35 12.25 14.17 15.67 14.74 October 12.88 12.07 14.18 17.48 10.09 November 13.08 12.78 December 13.42 12.73 Annual Ave. 13.05 13.84

WHOLESALE-WhiteJan.-Oct. Ave. 13.50 16.24 15.21 (6.33) 12.61 January 11.73 15.46 16.88 9.18 43.90 February 12.14 16.67 16.85 1.08 38.80 March 12.63 16.91 17.25 2.01 36.58 April 13.57 17.19 15.66 (8.90) 15.40 May 14.24 16.91 13.94 (17.56) (2.11) June 14.86 16.22 14.50 (10.60) (2.42) July 14.60 16.03 14.83 (7.49) 1.58 August 12.68 15.16 14.66 (3.30) 15.62 September 13.72 15.96 13.87 (13.10) 1.09 October 14.87 15.84 13.63 (13.95) (8.34) November 14.76 16.17 December 14.69 16.34 Annual Ave. 13.71 16.24

RETAIL - YellowJan.-Oct. Ave. 18.04 20.17 19.31 (4.24) 7.09

January 17.72 20.24 18.74 (7.41) 5.76 February 17.83 22.12 19.98 (9.67) 12.06 March 17.94 21.67 19.32 (10.84) 7.69 April 18.30 21.25 19.39 (8.75) 5.96 May 17.71 20.50 19.63 (4.24) 10.84 June 17.81 20.44 19.59 (4.16) 9.99 July 18.23 19.87 19.33 (2.72) 6.03 August 18.70 18.81 19.27 2.45 3.05 September 18.06 18.63 18.92 1.56 4.76 October 18.05 18.16 18.96 4.41 5.04 November 18.39 18.51 December 18.20 18.58 Annual Ave. 18.08 19.90

RETAIL - WhiteJan.-Oct. Ave. 16.95 21.26 19.87 (6.55) 17.23 January 15.22 22.50 22.67 0.76 48.95 February 15.56 22.49 22.73 1.07 46.08 March 15.59 23.35 21.93 (6.08) 40.67 April 16.42 23.79 20.14 (15.34) 22.66 May 16.57 20.08 20.13 0.25 21.48 June 18.06 20.16 19.54 (3.08) 8.19 July 19.32 19.98 17.72 (11.31) (8.28) August 17.13 19.19 18.22 (5.05) 6.36 September 17.50 20.44 17.74 (13.21) 1.37 October 18.12 20.63 17.87 (13.38) (1.38) November 18.22 20.54 December 18.52 21.32 Annual Ave. 17.19 21.21

(Peso per kilogram)

MONTH 2008 2009 2010 Percent Change

2008 2009 2010July-Dec 9,695 8,890 9,401 Jan-June 7,121 7,376 6,621

-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Pro

du

cti

on

('0

00

MT

)

Figure 1. Palay Production, Philippines,January-December 2010 Forecast and 2008-2009 Estimates

16,266 16,816 16,022

30 1 

HIGHLIGHTS Palay and corn output of the country for calendar year 2010 would be lower than their respective 2009 levels due to the adverse effects of the El Niño phenomenon that hit the country during the later part of 2009 until the early part of 2010. Cagayan Valley and Western Visayas regions were severely affected. The heavy rains and flooding brought about by super typhoon Juan in October left some damages on standing crops that may reduce the fourth quarter harvests for both palay and corn. A positive growth is foreseen for both palay and corn outputs in the first quarter of 2011.

1.0 January-December 2010 Palay and Corn Crop Estimates

1.1 PALAY

Calendar Year 2010 Forecast Palay production for calendar year 2010 is forecast at 16.02 million

MT, 1.5% below the 16.27 million MT output in 2009. The decrease is mainly brought about by the adverse effects of the El Niño phenomenon that resulted in the contraction of harvest area from 4.53 million hectares in 2009 to 4.37 million hectares this year, or by 3.7%. Yield for the year is forecast at 3.67 MT per hectare.

Table 17. Fertilizer: Monthly average dealer’s prices, by grade, Philippines, 2008-2010

2010/2009 2010/2008

UREAJan.-Oct. Ave. 1,501.54 1,041.42 977.81 (6.11) (34.88) January 1,010.32 1,273.72 1,007.73 (20.88) (0.26) February 1,030.03 1,137.39 1,012.28 (11.00) (1.72) March 1,042.54 1,101.90 1,011.21 (8.23) (3.01) April 1,135.48 1,081.33 1,008.26 (6.76) (11.20) May 1,437.04 1,058.92 1,000.50 (5.52) (30.38) June 1,754.43 1,023.96 984.52 (3.85) (43.88) July 1,831.89 967.70 953.47 (1.47) (47.95) August 1,922.80 937.91 927.85 (1.07) (51.74) September 1,933.35 919.85 919.78 (0.01) (52.43) October 1,917.54 911.48 952.45 4.49 (50.33) November 1,758.33 902.10 December 1,523.25 956.05 Annual Ave. 1,524.75 1,022.69

AMMOSULJan.-Oct. Ave. 892.15 622.27 542.51 (12.82) (39.19) January 646.35 770.77 550.86 (28.53) (14.77) February 721.07 673.28 542.76 (19.39) (24.73) March 760.00 665.17 548.06 (17.61) (27.89) April 811.16 653.48 569.02 (12.92) (29.85) May 883.61 640.11 562.66 (12.10) (36.32) June 967.33 613.18 556.26 (9.28) (42.50) July 1,003.74 582.39 528.46 (9.26) (47.35) August 1,038.67 558.61 516.28 (7.58) (50.29) September 1,044.81 538.82 518.46 (3.78) (50.38) October 1,044.76 526.90 532.30 1.02 (49.05) November 994.73 509.45 December 901.64 521.01 Annual Ave. 901.49 604.43

COMPLETEJan.-Oct. Ave. 1,579.63 1,239.27 1,086.48 (12.33) (31.22) January 960.43 1,477.46 1,117.53 (24.36) 16.36 February 1,030.58 1,329.63 1,118.01 (15.92) 8.48 March 1,195.67 1,284.34 1,116.55 (13.06) (6.62) April 1,430.85 1,262.07 1,112.17 (11.88) (22.27) May 1,627.66 1,243.50 1,108.07 (10.89) (31.92) June 1,835.56 1,220.71 1,095.88 (10.23) (40.30) July 1,895.18 1,178.35 1,069.44 (9.24) (43.57) August 1,940.26 1,151.49 1,044.47 (9.29) (46.17) September 1,946.00 1,130.30 1,037.90 (8.17) (46.66) October 1,934.14 1,114.81 1,044.79 (6.28) (45.98) November 1,849.09 1,100.35December 1,709.50 1,105.42Annual Ave. 1,612.91 1,216.54

AMMOPHOSJan.-Oct. Ave. 1,537.16 1,138.53 950.08 (16.55) (38.19) January 914.52 1,393.36 975.46 (29.99) 6.66 February 980.36 1,232.89 963.11 (21.88) (1.76) March 1,158.73 1,196.93 966.01 (19.29) (16.63) April 1,398.97 1,180.75 976.06 (17.34) (30.23) May 1,629.78 1,153.96 971.19 (15.84) (40.41) June 1,807.08 1,116.42 959.59 (14.05) (46.90) July 1,854.66 1,070.31 932.95 (12.83) (49.70) August 1,876.88 1,039.67 914.34 (12.05) (51.28) September 1,880.66 1,009.78 915.07 (9.38) (51.34) October 1,869.98 991.22 927.03 (6.48) (50.43) November 1,779.18 972.00 December 1,624.11 975.70 Annual Ave. 1,564.58 1,111.08

Percent ChangeGRADE 2008 2009

(Peso/bag @ 50 kg./bag)

2010

iii 31  Table 18. Cumulative actual and normal rainfall, by region,

Philippines, January-September, 2009-2010

Weather Situation and Outlook1

July- October 2010

The moderate La Ñina continued to persist in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Consistent with nearly all of the forecast models, La Ñina was expected to peak during the November-December-January season before it gradually weakens by March-April-May (MAM 2011) season. The weather systems that affected the country during the period July to October 2010 were the frontal systems, the low pressure areas (LPAs), intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), Northeast monsoon winds (NE), southwest monsoon, ridge of high pressure area (HPA) and the passage of ten (10) tropical cyclones namely: tropical depressions (TD) Caloy (July 19-20) and Florita (August 27-28); Tropical storms (TS) Domeng (August 3-5), Ester (August 6-9) and Henry (September 3-4); and Typhoons (TY) Basyang (July13-15), Glenda (August 29-31), Inday (September 15-19), Juan (October 15-20) and Katring (October 23-28). Typhoon Juan made landfall over eastern Isabela and brought excessive rains in Western Luzon area and caused significant damages to infrastructure and agriculture in six (6) regions. Cagayan Valley suffered the worst in terms of affected population and damaged houses as reported by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

November-December 2010 Outlook The weather systems that will likely influence the climate of the country are Northeast monsoon winds, the tail-end of the cold front, the ITCZ, ridge of high pressure area, cold surge, easterly waves, LPAs and the occurrence of Two (2) or Three (3) tropical cyclones. ————————————————— 1Excerpts from PAGASA August 9, 2010 to November 5, 2010 Weather Situation and Outlook

2010 2009 '10/'09 '10/Normal 2010 2009 '10/'09 '10/Normal 2010 2009 '10/'09 '10/Normal

Philippines 10,516.9 21,952.7 11,959.7 (52.1) (12.1) 13,745.4 16,004.9 13,133.1 (14.1) 4.7 24,262.3 37,957.6 25,092.8 (36.1) (3.3) NCR 270.1 1,030.7 471.0 (73.8) (42.7) 1,062.3 1,865.1 1,046.1 (43.0) 1.5 1,332.4 2,895.8 1,517.1 (54.0) (12.2) CAR 568.6 994.4 519.0 (42.8) 9.6 954.2 1,517.7 1,065.0 (37.1) (10.4) 1,522.8 2,512.1 1,584.0 (39.4) (3.9) Ilocos 548.3 1,030.4 585.7 (46.8) (6.4) 1,053.9 1,753.0 1,449.0 (39.9) (27.3) 1,602.2 2,783.4 2,034.7 (42.4) (21.3) Cag. Valley 659.1 1,183.9 570.0 (44.3) 15.6 808.5 994.5 824.0 (18.7) (1.9) 1,467.6 2,178.4 1,394.0 (32.6) 5.3 C. Luzon 502.5 1,256.8 486.0 (60.0) 3.4 1,070.5 1,474.6 1,238.0 (27.4) (13.5) 1,573.0 2,731.4 1,724.0 (42.4) (8.8) So. Tagalog 759.1 1,317.5 2,146.0 (42.4) (64.6) 1,692.0 1,961.4 1,665.0 (13.7) 1.6 2,451.1 3,278.9 3,811.0 (25.2) (35.7) Bicol 633.2 2,214.9 934.0 (71.4) (32.2) 932.1 651.8 671.0 43.0 38.9 1,565.3 2,866.7 1,605.0 (45.4) (2.5) W. Visayas 281.4 945.6 529.0 (70.2) (46.8) 745.4 731.7 767.0 1.9 (2.8) 1,026.8 1,677.3 1,296.0 (38.8) (20.8) C. Visayas 317.4 788.0 415.0 (59.7) (23.5) 594.0 412.9 469.0 43.9 26.7 911.4 1,200.9 884.0 (24.1) 3.1 E. Visayas 793.2 2,100.7 955.0 (62.2) (16.9) 774.2 458.6 538.0 68.8 43.9 1,567.4 2,559.3 1,493.0 (38.8) 5.0 W. Mindanao 549.8 1,177.5 586.0 (53.3) (6.2) 710.6 706.0 531.0 0.7 33.8 1,260.4 1,883.5 1,117.0 (33.1) 12.8 N. Mindanao 635.0 1,583.3 697.0 (59.9) (8.9) 796.1 828.9 756.0 (4.0) 5.3 1,431.1 2,412.2 1,453.0 (40.7) (1.5) S. Mindanao 952.6 1,344.1 722.0 (29.1) 31.9 664.7 526.0 477.0 26.4 39.4 1,617.3 1,870.1 1,199.0 (13.5) 34.9 C. Mindanao 726.6 1,130.3 592.0 (35.7) 22.7 591.8 735.1 553.0 (19.5) 7.0 1,318.4 1,865.4 1,145.0 (29.3) 15.1 Caraga 1,574.8 2,618.7 1,398.0 (39.9) 12.6 591.5 930.0 477.0 (36.4) 24.0 2,166.3 3,548.7 1,875.0 (39.0) 15.5 ARMM 745.2 1,235.9 354.0 (39.7) 110.5 703.6 457.6 607.0 53.8 15.9 1,448.8 1,693.5 961.0 (14.4) 50.8

Source: PAGASA

JANUARY-JUNEActual NORMAL % DEVIATION

JULY-SEPTEMBERActual NORMAL % DEVIATION NORMAL

(Millimeter)JANUARY-SEPTEMBER

% DEVIATIONREGION Actual

Department of Agriculture

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS 1184 Ben-lor Bldg., Quezon Avenue, Quezon City

CROPS STATISTICS DIVISION, Cereals Statistics Section Tel No. (02) 3712067 info@bas.gov.ph

http://www.bas.gov.ph

Republic of the Philippines Department of Agriculture BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS Quezon City

VOLUME 24 NO. 4

October 2010

ISSN-2012-0346