VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast 2011-2016
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Transcript of VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast 2011-2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1Cisco Confidential 1© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast Update; 2011–2016
May 2012Under Embargo Until May 30, 2012
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2
Service Adoption Forecast
Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.
Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth
ResidentialMobileBusiness
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 33
Establishing the Zettabyte Era
• By 2016, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 1.3 zettabytes per year
• 1.3 zettabytes is equal to:
• 10X more than all IP traffic generated in 2008 (121 exabytes)
• 38 million DVDs per hour
What is a zettabyte?• One trillion gigabytes• Approximately 1021
(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 4
94 EBper mo
31 EBper mo
Establishing the Zettabyte EraGlobal IP traffic will increase 4X from 2011 to 2016
110 EBper mo
77 EBper mo
59 EBper mo
44 EBper mo
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 5
Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 2011–2016
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
More Devices
More Internet Users
Faster Broadband Speeds
More Rich Media Content
Growth Catalysts
Nearly 19 Billion Connections 4-Fold Speed Increase
3.4 Billion Internet Users 1.2 Million Video Minutes/Second
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 6
North America
2.9 Billion by 2016CAGR 14.1%
Western Europe
2.6 Billion by 2016CAGR 13.2%
Central/Eastern Europe
1.3 Billion by 2016CAGR 10.2%
Latin America
1.6 Billion by 2016CAGR 12.2%
Middle East & Africa
1.8 Billion by 2016CAGR 10.4%
Asia Pacific
8.7 Billion by 2016CAGR 14.1%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
Global Device GrowthBy 2016, There Will Be nearly 19B Network Connections
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
3,500,000.0
4,000,000.0N
um
be
r o
f D
ev
ice
s (
B)
372M
IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices By 2016, 3.57B Fixed Devices Will Be IPv6-Capable; 40.8% of All Fixed Devices
3.57B
57.2% CAGR 2011–2016
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices
4.03B
Nu
mb
er o
f D
evic
es (
B)
IPv6-Capable Fixed and Mobile Devices By 2016, 7.6B Fixed & Mobile Devices Will Be IPv6-Capable; 40.3% of All Fixed & Mobile Devices
49% CAGR 2011–2016
372M
3.57B
662M
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 9
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
3,500,000.0
4,000,000.0
IPv6-Capable Fixed Business Devices IPv6-Capable Fixed Consumer Devices
2.45B
Nu
mb
er o
f D
evic
es (
B)
IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices By 2016, 2.45B Fixed Consumer Devices Will Be IPv6-Capable; 1.12B Fixed Business Devices Will Be IPv6-Capable
65.2% CAGR
91M
1.12B
281M
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
54.2% CAGR
57.2% CAGR 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 10
North America
269 Million by 2016CAGR 1.6%
Western Europe
319 Million by 2016CAGR 2.5%
Central/Eastern Europe
197 Million by 2016CAGR 7.7%
Latin America
287 Million by 2016CAGR 11.0%
Middle East & Africa
542 Million by 2016CAGR 16.1%
Asia Pacific
1.7 Billion by 2016CAGR 13.2%
Global Internet Users GrowthBy 2016, There Will Be 3.4B Internet Users
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 11
Consumer Broadband Devices 2011 Fixed Traffic Generation Comparisons By Device
=
=
Tablet
Internet-Enabled 3DTV
Internet-Enabled HDTV
64-bit Laptop/PC
Gaming Consoles
1.2 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
= 4.1 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
= 2.0 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
= 3.2 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
3.4 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 12
North America
3.5-Fold growth11 to 37 Mbps
Western Europe
3.8-Fold growth11 to 42 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
3.1-Fold growth10 to 29 Mbps
Latin America
2.8-Fold growth4.2 to 12 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
2.5-Fold growth3.4 to 8.4 Mbps
Asia Pacific
4.4-Fold growth8.1 to 36 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
Global Broadband Speed AccelerationAvg. Broadband Speed Will Increase Almost 4X; From 9 to 34 Mbps
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 13
10 Mbps
44% of all broadband connections by 2016
5 Mbps
74% of all broadband connections by 2016
Faster Networks Enable More Experiences
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
2 Online Video (HD Streams)
1 SD Business Videoconference
1 Online music stream
3 Online Video (HD Streams)
1 Business Desktop Conference call
4 Online music streams
1 Online Gaming stream
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 14
10 Mbps
44% of all broadband connections by 2016
5 Mbps
74% of all broadband connections by 2016
3% of all broadband connections by 2016
100 Mbps
Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
20 minutes 2 minutes
Online Video (HD movie download)
41 minutes
Online Video (HD movie download) Online Video (HD movie download)
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 15
VNI Service Adoption ForecastResidential: Global TAM/Devices & Service Rankings
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
Fastest Growing Residential Services
TAM and Devices for Residential Market
Highest Penetrated Residential Service
TV Households2011: 1.7 Billion 2016: 1.9 Billion
Residential Internet Users2011: 1.7 Billion2016: 2.3 Billion
Devices/Connections2011: 2.4 Billion 2016: 5.4 Billion
Digital TV―13.8% CAGR2011: 694 Million 2016: 1.3 Billion
VoIP―10.6% CAGR2011: 560 Million2016: 928 Million
Online Music2011: 1.1 Billion63% of Internet Users
2016: 1.8 Billion79% of Internet Users
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 16
VNI Service Adoption ForecastConsumer Mobile: Global TAM/Devices & Service Rankings
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
Fastest Growing Consumer Mobile Services
TAM and Devices for Consumer Mobile Market
Highest Penetrated Consumer Mobile Services
Mobile Consumers2011: 3.7 Billion 2016: 4.5 Billion
Devices/Connections2011: 5.6 Billion 2016: 8.4 Billion
Mobile Video―42.9% CAGR2011: 271 Million 2016: 1.6 Billion
Mobile Service Demand Globally, consumer mobile segment has 7 of 9 services with CAGRs exceeding 20% from 2011 to 2016.
SMS (Texting)2011: 2.8 Billion74% of Internet Users
2016: 4.1 Billion60% of Internet Users
Mobile Service MaturitySMS has the lowest CAGR (8.3 %) in the consumer mobile service category.
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17
VNI Service Adoption ForecastBusiness: Global TAM/Devices & Service Rankings
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
Fastest Growing Business Services
TAM and Devices for Business Market
Highest Penetrated Business Services
Business Internet Users2011: 1.6 Billion 2016: 2.3 Billion
Business Mobile Users2011: 483 Million 2016: 569 Million
Devices/Connections2011: 2.2 Billion 2016: 5.0 Billion
Desktop Video―43.2% CAGR2011: 36 Million 2016: 219 Million
LBS*―42.9% CAGR2011: 27 Million 2016: 158 Million
Instant Messaging (IM)2011: 470 Million30% of Business Internet Users
2016: 745 Million32% of Business Internet Users
SMS (texting)2011: 364 Million75% of Business Mobile Users
2016: 498 Million88% of Business Mobile Users
* LBS=Location Based Services
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 18
2016
32.3 GB Traffic/month
2011
11.5 GB Traffic/month
50 GB Traffic/month
Future
Average Internet User; Traffic per Month
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
3 Online HD movie videos13 VoD episodes
6 HD Desktop video conferencing calls
122 Online music tracks
2 3D Online HD movie videos8 Online HD movie videos 38 VoD episodes
14 HD Desktop video conferencing calls
307 Online music tracks
2 Online 3D movie videos11 Online HD movie videos53 VoD episodes
33 HD Desktop video conferencing calls
307 Online music tracks
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 19
2016
83.7 GB Traffic/month
2011
26.2 GB Traffic/month
100 GB Traffic/month
Future
Average Internet Household; Traffic per Month
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
7 Online HD movie videos30 VoD episodes
12 HD Desktop video conferencing calls
239 Online music tracks
4 3D movies20 HD movies 95 VoD episodes
33 HD Desktop video conferencing calls
683 Online music tracks
6 3D movies23 HD movies114 VoD episodes
40 HD Desktop video conferencing calls
802 Online music tracks
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 20
North America
27.5 EB/Month by 201622% CAGR, 3X Growth
Western Europe
24.4 EB/Month by 201627% CAGR, 3X Growth
Central/Eastern Europe
6.0 EB/Month by 201639% CAGR, 5X Growth
Latin America
7.6 EB/Month by 201649% CAGR, 7X Growth
Middle East & Africa
3.8 EB/Month by 201658% CAGR, 10X Growth
Asia Pacific
40.6 EB/Month by 201631% CAGR, 4X Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
Global IP Traffic Growth, 2011–2016Regional Traffic Contributions In The Zettabyte Era
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 21
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
Non-PC Based Traffic
PC-Based Traffic
Pet
abyt
es p
er M
on
th
Global IP Traffic Growth by Device TypeNon-PC Devices to Account for 31% in 2016
69%
22%
78%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
29% CAGR 2011–2016
31%
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 22
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
Mobile Data (78% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-fi (34% CAGR)
Pe
tab
yte
s p
er
Mo
nth
Global IP Traffic by Local Access TechnologyBy 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic
39%
51%
10%
29% CAGR 2011–2016
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 23
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
Business
Consumer
Pet
abyt
es /
Mo
nth
Global IP Traffic Growth by User SegmentConsumer CAGR 30%; Business CAGR 22% (2011 to 2016)
12%
88%
16%
84%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
29% CAGR 2010–2015
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
10,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
70,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
90,000,000,000
VoIP
Online Gaming
File Sharing
Web/Data
Internet Video
Pe
tab
yte
s p
er
Mo
nth
Global Consumer Internet Traffic / ApplicationsInternet Video Dominates Consumer Internet Traffic
Online Gaming and VoIP forecast to be 0.73% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2016
22%
23%
54%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
29% CAGR 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
40,000,000,000Video CallingAmbient Video and Internet PVRInternet-Video-to-PC: LiveMobile VideoInternet-Video-to-PC: Short FormInternet-Video-to-TVInternet-Video-to-PC: Long Form
Pe
tab
yte
s p
er
Mo
nth
Consumer Internet Video CompositionVideo Traffic Increasingly Driven By Long-Form Video
8%
11%
37%
8%
14%
14%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
8%
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 26
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
14,000,000,000
Business Mobile Data
Business Managed IP *
Business Internet *
Pet
abyt
es p
er M
on
th
Global Business IP Traffic Growth / Segment The Internet Is The Major Component Of Business IP Traffic
27%
54%
* Video conferencing is included in both the Business Internet and Managed IP categories Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
22% CAGR 2011–2016
19%
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 27
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
Video Phones
Executive Video Conferencing
Multiscreen Room Video Conferencing
Desktop Video Conferencing
Singlescreen Room Video Conferencing
Web Conferencing with Video
Pet
abyt
es p
er M
on
th
Global Business Video Conferencing DetailWeb Video Conferencing Leads Collaborative Apps
18%
61%
Multiscreen/Executive Videoconferencing and Videophones will be 1.4 % of all business video traffic in 2015
19%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
42% CAGR 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 28
Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016Key Takeaways / Summary
Total IP Traffic 110 Exabytes per month by 2016
By 2016, annual global IP traffic will reach 1.3 zettabyte
Fixed Internet 80.6 Exabytes per month by 2016
Managed IP 18.1 Exabytes per month by 2016
By 2016, 1.2 M video minutes cross the network each second
Business IP video conferencing will grow 6-fold from 2011-2016
Mobile Data
Mobile video will increase 18-fold from 2011 to 2016
10.8 Exabytes per month by 2016
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 29
Cisco VNI Web Sites
• Press Releases
• White Papers / FAQs
• Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps
IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: [email protected] Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: [email protected]
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 30
Thank you.
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 31
Cisco VNI Service Adoption ForecastMajor Device/Connection Milestones (2011 – 2016)
• In 2011, there were 2.4B residential devices and connections; by 2016, there will be 5.4B residential devices and connections (17.3% CAGR).
• In 2011, there were 5.6B consumer mobile devices and connections; by 2016, there will be 8.4B consumer mobile devices and connections (8.3% CAGR).
• In 2011, there were 2.2B business devices and connections; by 2016, there will be 5.1B business devices and connections (18% CAGR).
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 32
Cisco VNI Service Adoption ForecastKey Service Trends (2011 – 2016)
• Digital TV will be the fastest growing service across all residential service categories (TV & Internet) from 2011 to 2016 (13.8% CAGR).
• Mobile video will be the fastest growing consumer mobile service from 2011 to 2016. (42.9% CAGR).
• Desktop video conferencing will be the fastest growing service across all business service categories (mobile & fixed) from 2011 to 2016 (43.2% CAGR).
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 33
Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic ForecastMajor Milestones• In 2011, the average Internet user generated 12 GB/mo;
by 2016, the average Internet user will generate 30 GB/mo.
• By 2016, more than one-third of total IP traffic will come from devices other than PCs.
• By 2016, wi-fi will account for nearly half of all IP traffic.
• By 2016, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross global IP networks every 3 minutes.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016