Vision 2030: how mobile research will fit in for stakeholders across the insights value-chain - Lumi...

JULY 16 - 18, 2013, Minneapolis, USA

WWW.MRMW.NET

The original, premier event for the Mobile Marketing Research Industry

WWW.MRMW.NET

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Overview

Many predic@ons surrounding 2030

Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard

Mobile Market Research will be nothing like it is today

Method

ü  80 qualita@ve interviews

ü  Over 12,000 quan@ta@ve interviews

ü  Some desk research

Qualita@ve interviews – thanks to:

Covering every con,nent Mixture of agency, Client, consultancy, technology

Jamie Burke (9010)

Clare Chul (Avon)

Isaac Rogers (2020)

Peter Searll (Dashboard)

Gemma Stephenson (AcEve Group)

Sally Smallmann (Diageo)

David Nelems (AcEve Group)

Maarten Kallenberg (InsightAsia)

Dave Lee (PSL)

Guy Rolfe

(Kantar)

Kim-‐Fredrik Schneider (World One)

Pravin Shekar (Krea)

Birju Jani (mrJuncEon)

Andy Lees (Lumi Mobile)

Alistair Hill (On Device)

Mark Halliday (Manning GoRlieb)

David Newman (Oxford

University)

Graeme SparshoR

(McDonald’s)

Ana Alvarez (PepsiCo)

Fiona Blades (Mesh)

Eric Grosgogeat (FocusVision)

James Burge

(Research Now)

Arno Hummerston (GfK)

Marion Koudenburg (Heineken)

Joe Staton (GfK)

Edward Appleton (Avery

Dennison)

Douglas Hunter (Google)

Andreiko Kerdemelidis

(RBS)

Orlando Hooper-‐Greenhill (JWT)

Simon Falconer (TNS)

Alex Johnson (Kantar)

Lord Leverhulme (Unilever)

Helen Bennie (Shopper Insight)

Judith Passingham

(TNS)

Paul Roberts (SPA Future

Thinking)

Reineke Reitsma (Forrester Research

Alexander Linder

(Swaeovski) Joe Webb (TNS)

John Branston (Research

Partnership)

Robert Kramer (TNS)

Aysegul Ataman Scharning (Techneostrategy)

Ben Leet (Usamp)

David Feick (T-‐Mobile)

Ray Poynter (Vision CriEcal)

MarEn Tomlinson (Research Now)

Peter Teachman (Millward Brown)

Ian McKinnon (Kantar Health)

Bob Dance (Fresh Minds)

Jeremy Carpenter (Kantar Mobile)

MC Lai (Ipsos)

Phil Garland (Survey Monkey)

Barry Ooi (ConversaEo

n Zone)

Lenny Murphy

(Greenbook)

Richard ScionE

(Prophet)

VP, (Double Helix)

Roxanna Strohmenger (Forrester)

Jan SchoRelndreier (Cluetec)

Carol Haney (Toluna)

Zoe Dowling (Added Value)

Finn Raben (ESOMAR)

Steve August

(RevelaEon)

Robert Wang

(Morgan Stanley)

David Shim (Placed)

Jayne Dow (Firefly)

Alan Yelsey (KVS

Studio)

Stuart Ryder (Ipsos)

Peter Kirk (WorldOne)

Sharon Hallock (TNS)


Ø  Many economic forecasts

Ø  The World is evolving

Ø  People all around the World expect significant developments in mobile

Rank Shi5 in GDP, by PPP $

Rank 2010 2030

1 United States China

2 China United States

3 Japan India

4 India Japan

5 Germany Russia

6 Russia Germany

7 UK Brazil

8 France UK

9 Brazil France

10 Italy Mexico

11 Mexico South Korea

12 South Korea Indonesia

13 Spain Italy

14 Canada Canada

15 Indonesia Spain * Euromonitor / GfK

Example: Are we ready for 1bn more China tourists?

Now 2020e

1.4 bn

390 mn middle class

Airports

Hotels

Language

Milk

$95bn – 2012

Expecta@ons high

* Euromonitor / GfK

2030

Say what you will about Nostradamus …

OR

Our research …

«  Survey deployed using GMI / Lightspeed and client sample

«  Responses from 12,000+ people

«  Over 90% within 1 day

«  9000+ images uploaded

«  Covered all major regions

«  55% found it ‘fun’, less than 1% ‘boring’

Big picture for 2030

We will be wearing mobile devices

« Over 4 out of 10 expect the eyes to control the device

Richard ScionR

Devices may be

somewhat funcEon specific but collecEvely

your “wearable network” will far exceed the

capabiliEes available in today’s mobile.

« Wearable devices account for nearly 2/3 of peoples expecta@ons

20%

33%

10%

20%

9%

8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Smart phone

Spectacles

Contact lens

Arm patch on clothes

A brain implant

Liquid-‐gel

Even less of a ‘phone’ than today

E@que)e and rule shi5s

þ  Transport

þ  Family

There is a colleague of ours who we refer to as

"The Man who isn't there" because he is so

connected to his mobile

Judith Passingham

þ  School

þ  Business

Robot Wars or Robot Laws?

Alistair Hill

Mobile is cri@cal

World Bank Spokesperson

More people have [mobile] access to

internet today in Africa than they do to clean

water or even sanitaEon.

Digital/Web is probably more important than air for many … I think people are probably learning more online than in

schools, teachers will probably be replaced by robots soon.

MC Lai

Mobile is invisible

We’ll soon be living in a real life matrix – if you’re not plugged in

you will literally be separated from the rest of the world.

Robert Wang

People won't noEce computers, in the same way they don't noEce sheet metal, but they will be everywhere and in everything from lightbulbs to

packets of juice, in almost constant contact with us and our environment.

Andreiko Kerdemeledis

The internet will be such an intrinsic part of

every device and interacEon we have,

we’ll stop even realizing it exists at all.

Issac Rogers


v  Mobile will be everywhere

v  Data will be everywhere and all-‐encompassing

v  Some markets will be mobile only

v  The shape of the MR industry will change

Mobile everywhere

Andy Lees

The best use of mobile is preRy much everything! MR doesn’t consider

mobile enough in proposals, because in general, researchers selling to clients don’t have good enough knowledge of its capabiliEes or

limitaEons.

Dave Lee

There are no businesses for whom mobile is not relevant. If you’re in

business, you need to be in mobile. And if you’re in market research you need to

be thinking ahead of your clients.

It’s not a quesEon of if you add mobile to your

research mix, but when.

Reineke Reitsma

. Researchers seek to further exploit the high penetraEon of mobile

phones

ESOMAR GMR 2012 Report

Therefore data everywhere

Data used to be scarce – now it is everywhere and more

highly detailed. The challenge is to make sense of it, numbers, verbaEms, rich media (audio, video, images) social impressions, millions of

data points

A defining trend of the next hundred years will be digital informaEon driven via mobile plamorms. The defining

technology for our species, for the next hundred years, will be mobile…

Lenny Murphy

Our connecEon to the digital world will literally become a sixth sense. We’ll be studying a digital footprint of consumers, rather than relying on

reported behavior Isaac Rogers

David Nelems

Some markets will be mobile only

Aysegul Ataman Scharning

Mobile is just another channel...unless you live in Africa -‐ then its the ONLY channel.

Peter Searll

Emerging markets will be the focus while more and more market research will be conducted about Asia. Mobile surveys will be adopted more easily than any

other tool in market research.

In a place like Nigeria if it's not face to face it'll be straight to

mobile.

Debbie Pruent

But who will lead?

The US market is more ahead of the curve than most; at least in my industry, there is more opportunity for virtual research in the US than in, for instance Japan, which can be extremely restricEve with privacy laws and what can be done.

VP, Double Helix

Lenny Murphy

APAC will probably lead in some of the more advanced, early applicaEons of mobile due to their cultural fascinaEon with technology, manufacturing capacity of low cost devices and robust infrastructure. On the other hand, the US will lead the market from a business perspecEve, with the rest of the world following on quickly.

The industry reports will show a different landscape

33.5

<0.1

Non Mobile Research

Mobile Research

33.5 Non Mobile Research

Mobile Research

** Up to $300bn

* Es@mates in $bn ** Based on qualita@ve discussions with industry leaders

2012 2030


Ø  The impact of mobile is colossal

Ø  Different data needs a different approach

Ø  New research models will evolve

Ø  Debriefs and outputs will be more dynamic

Ø  Need to embrace change

Ø  Implica@ons for us all

Colossal Impact

BULLDOZER…..that’s what will be the effect of mobile in MR.

A typical MR project will be in the DIY mold where the power is in the hands

of the one who needs answers.

Biz and MR is going to change. And mobile in MR is NOT just survey apps and the like. We need to have a

blinders-‐off approach.

Pravin Shekar

Back to Nostradamus

MR as we know it today will not exist in 2030.

Data capture replaces Data collecEon. Synthesizing

“Why” quesEons into people’s consumer experience will replace the tradiEonal

quesEonnaire. Go mobile or go home.

There is a healthy and exciEng future for market research albeit

one where disrupEon will fundamentally change the nature

of our business.

The current business model of market research is not

sustainable with this level of technological disrupEon

Lenny Murphy

I don't think the current model in many agencies is sustainable unless they can use AI to do the analysis and

outsourcing can be problemaEc

Graeme Sparshob

Colin Strong

Richard ScionR

Different data sources need a different approach

The way we get an answer to a quesEon will change. Small clumps of informaEon coming from diverse set of sources. A huge thing that researchers will need to do in the future is leqng go of consistency.

Alex Johnson

Challenge the exisEng measures of the industry. As lifestyles change in response to technology, the research industry needs to ensure they

are measuring the right things.

Graeme Sparshob

Constant data stream = new skills and players

People are increasingly willing to openly provide detailed self profiling, life-‐streaming

around consumpEon habits, moods and emoEons as well as desires and needs.

With such a mass of highly individuated data, market research is going to have to get serious

about building systems that can handle big data. So the only players that can win in the long game are

IT companies that borrow research know-‐how to build the algorithms.

Jamie Burke

The School of Hard Knocks

CEOs and companies should LISTEN. ADAPT. EXPERIMENT.

EXPAND. à REPEAT. à RAPIDLY.

Pravin Shekar

Test, and learn. 80% or indeed 70% today is more than good enough in many scenarios rather than waiEng for 100%

tomorrow.

Jayne Dow

Give your people permission to fail – that’s the only way they will be able

and willing to try new things.

Simon Falconer

Agency role is more specific

You need an agency to be concise in the collecEon and insighmul in the delivery – combining data

collecEon with consultancy – out of necessity rather than just trying to move up the value chain or make ourselves feel important.

Two agencies or one?

Arno Hummerston

There is a divide of research skills -‐ skilled in data collecEon and then

figuring out what’s appropriate and useful,

and when.

Robert Kramer

And so are people

Humans are inconsistent, slow and expensive – technology is not

Ray Poynter

If we don't have a clear vision for our future role and where we are headed as an industry we will struggle to recruit and train our future leaders and

innovators.

James Burge

Debriefs are not a single event

Edward Appleton

Data becomes stale very quickly. InnovaEons that allow real-‐Eme analysis to form

acEonable insight will emerge. Fast Data will be an

organisaEon’s lifeblood. Ignore the Fast Data and you lose

your edge.

Andreiko Kerdemeledis

Debriefs can encourage conservaEve thinking.

Insights become powerful, acted upon, through an

ongoing dialogue. Business challenges constantly

change.

The horse has already bolted

The scary part is that most of this Iron-‐man like technology already exists, its just not quite been put together in the right package (or in the right

size) to make it work… we just need to see a consolidaEon around key

services, key providers, and a bringing together of what already exists, along with an industry that’s

open enough to accept the new.

Joe Webb

It won’t be easy. Many challenges ahead

Connec@ng with people will be harder

MarkeEng becomes easier in 10 years. Fewer channels to cover, and a more direct connecEon to the consumer

wherever they are, marketers have an easier Eme finding their consumers.

The struggle will be to make a connecEon with that consumer. We’ll be beRer at digesEng new informaEon and more

overall content, it’ll be harder to deliver a markeEng message that isn’t directly targeted at the specific consumer. In a way, the consumer is easier to find

but harder to touch.

Isaac Rogers

We’ll shiv from casEng wide nets to very narrow ones – because [today]

there’s a lot of noise and a lot of waste – so imagine a place where there’s a lot less guessing – and a lot

more of a direct relaEonship between the individual and adverEsing,

buying, selling …

Phil Garland

Control of your own data

This move towards so called big data will lead to, under data protecEon legislaEon, the user taking a more proacEve role in managing their own data. Trade your own data for rewards, be provided with rewards based on the data profiles you upload.

Paul Roberts

Market research will specialize in meaningful

exchanges with consumers. This access will most likely come at a high price as consumers begin to see the value in

their opinion and personal data.

Josephine Hansom

Dealing with the data

When it comes to the future of big data, we need a reciprocal give and take with the consumer – right now the value exchange is not clear.

. David Shim

Bob Dance

Jan Schobelndreier

I think/hope there will be beRer handle on the ‘big data’ topic … adding another 17 years with lots of new cool web informaEon and other services, there will be huge amounts of data … someone needs to sort it out and

make sense of it…

So the advent of personalised informaEon requires us to rethink our modus operandi … We will need to change from being providers of non intervenEonist data interpretaEon to

a more direct role in improving consumer experiences as a direct result of them talking to us …

We need to capture knowledge, not just data. That’s where

the value lies.

Alan Yelsey

The value of privacy

The tension between privacy and

sharing of our data will conEnue, yet we will become more knowledgeable on what it means to share data, and we will see further regulaEons and guidelines built into data acquisiEon

for commercial purposes.

Carol Haney

. And while there’s an uneasiness associated with this today -‐ I wonder if this is something we’ll just take for granted 20

years from now.

Ian McKinnon

People expect that they are being tracked and are comfortable with it – as long as the informaEon is

being used to help them in someway. It’s not creepy if it’s USEFUL

Jayne Dow

Embracing change – the need for new methods

.

InnovaEons will lead to more data and more complex ways of looking at data, however they will also bring about more creaEve,

engaging and less taxing ways of collecEng informaEon from

consumers.

Jeremy Carpenter

Roxie Strohmenger

It’s all about reframing how we get insights from consumers. We must use mobile as a vehicle as it opens up so many new avenues that we didn’t have before.

Peter Teachman

We need to evolve

Short. Focused. We live in a 140 character world – people live in sound bites and their aRenEon span has adjusted to

match. We as researchers need to accommodate this shiv.

Zoe Dowling

Biggest Challenge: The mindsets of research buyers and researchers. The sun is seqng on the 200-‐page quarterly analysis and the 50-‐page monthly tracker. Researchers will need to

learn how to find and tell the stories in new ways.

Stuart Ryder

MR companies will need to adapt their communicaEon styles to how people learn today – this will mean greater use of technology, focussing on the key big learnings,

interacEve tools, not just the 'presentaEon workshop‘.

Graeme Sparshob

Mobile is the Tool – not the Solu@on

Steve August

Expect a dizzying array of choices when it comes to mobile research. But remember mobile doesn’t

automaEcally mean good research. Mobile is simply a medium that gives you the opportunity to get closer to your customers than ever before. It's sEll takes research skills to make

mobile deliver.

Don’t chase technology.

Technology is a tool to uncover insights. Chase insights.

Stuart Ryder

. The beauty of mobile is not about the device – it’s the state of being .

Jayne Dow

Typical research project?

1. More inputs; blurred qual quant boundaries; more Partnerships with tech businesses; .

2. Client data + open behavioral data + proprietary passive & acEve behavioural and (short-‐form) survey data

3. Will also include: •  Text analyEcs/NLP/network analysis..... •  Algorithms for more personalised research experience and

incenEves, improving parEcipaEon rates and openness (e.g. Amazon)

•  More inputs from 'quanEfied self' (aka 'living data') sources •  Neuroscience inputs •  Video via mobile and other mobile meta data such as locaEon,

environmental condiEons etc.

Simon Falconer

Iner@a will remain a problem

Andy Lees

We are lazy creatures

InerEa. Reliance on norms. The hassle of truly embracing

emerging markets.

Ben Leet

Front and center

Kim-‐Fredrik Schneider

In a world of digital proliferaEon and diversificaEon, our

understanding of the consumer at the centre of all acEvity is

fundamental. The extent to which mobile is

synonymous with the consumer will be a central component of this

understanding.

Judith Passingham

Mobile is Dead. Long Live Mobility.

Mobile market research will have to be a fundamental

element of any MR project. To get to the people you want to get to – you have to use mobile – it will be

the most facilitaEng and meaningful point of contact.

Finn Raben

Not there yet

CollecEng data using a mobile device is a huge buzz in the

industry, but it hasn’t replaced other modes of data collecEon … yet. When it does happen – it’s going to transform porEons

of the MR industry.

Carol Haney

. I think the future will look more like today than we expect. As an

example: I was in the airport, walking past a newsstand where there was a magazine with a grumpy looking Buzz Aldrin with the quote, “You promised us Mars colonies and all

we got was Facebook.”

Steve August

The medium opens so many possibiliEes but it seems to be taking a long Eme for the industry

to embrace these! Fiona Blade

Some things will remain the same

Lord Leverhulme

Businesses will sEll have problems that need fixing. Technology,

devices will change. But you sEll need people to answer quesEons. Technology and inference can only go so far. There is a fundamental

need that will remain.

Alistair Hill

I know that half of the money I spend is wasted. I just don't know which half.

Much like the Wizard of Oz

Like the Tin Man: «  Do we have the

heart?

Like the Scarecrow: «  Do we have the

brains?

And like the Lion: «  Do we have the courage?

In Summary

  $300 bn industry?

  Inevitably the central role

  MMRA and MRMW will be mainstream and set standards

  Are you ready for 2030?

WWW.MRMW.NET

TITLE SPONSOR DIAMOND SPONSOR PLATINUM SPONSOR

GOLD SPONSORS

WORKSHOP HOST

SILVER SPONSORS

PREMIERE SPONSOR

NETWORKING EVENING SPONSOR BAG SPONSOR PREMIERE SPONSOR

JULY 16 - 18, 2013, Minneapolis, USA

WWW.MRMW.NET

The original, premier event for the Mobile Marketing Research Industry

Vision 2030: how mobile research will fit in for stakeholders across the insights value-chain - Lumi...

Business

Transcript of Vision 2030: how mobile research will fit in for stakeholders across the insights value-chain - Lumi...