Vicki Hollub Chief Executive Officer - Occidental Petroleum...Companies listed alphabetically : APA,...
Transcript of Vicki Hollub Chief Executive Officer - Occidental Petroleum...Companies listed alphabetically : APA,...
Barclays 2017 CEO Energy-Power ConferenceOccidental Petroleum CorporationSeptember 6, 2017
Vicki HollubChief Executive Officer
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Forward-Looking StatementsPortions of this presentation contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that could materially affect expected results of operations, liquidity, cash flows and business prospects. Actual results may differ from anticipated results, sometimes materially, and reported results should not be considered an indication of future performance. Factors that could cause results to differ include, but are not limited to: global commodity pricing fluctuations; supply and demand considerations for Occidental's products; higher-than-expected costs; the regulatory approval environment; not successfully completing, or any material delay of, field developments, expansion projects, capital expenditures, efficiency projects, acquisitions or dispositions; uncertainties about the estimated quantities of oil and natural gas reserves; lower-than-expected production from development projects or acquisitions; exploration risks; general economic slowdowns domestically or internationally; political conditions and events; liability under environmental regulations including remedial actions; litigation; disruption or interruption of production or manufacturing or facility damage due to accidents, chemical releases, labor unrest, weather, natural disasters, cyber attacks or insurgent activity; failure of risk management; changes in law or regulations; reorganization or restructuring of Occidental's operations; or changes in tax rates. Words such as “estimate,” “project,” “predict,” “will,” “would,” “should,” “could,” “may,” “might,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “expect,” “aim,” “goal,” “target,” “objective,” “likely” or similar expressions that convey the prospective nature of events or outcomes generally indicate forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Unless legally required, Occidental does not undertake any obligation to update any forward looking statements, as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Material risks that may affect Occidental’s results of operations and financial position appear in Part I, Item 1A “Risk Factors” of the 2016 Form 10-K.
Use of non-GAAP Financial InformationThis presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures on the “Investors” section of our website.
Cautionary Statements
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Occidental Petroleum• Value Proposition
• Portfolio Optimization
• Path to Cash Flow Neutrality and Breakeven
• Sustainability With High Quality Assets
• Model
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2016 ROCE* Oxy’s Unique Value Proposition
Upside in rising oil price environment and downside protection during falling oil price environment
Focus on value based growth
Top quartile returns
Consistent Dividend Growth• Growing dividend with strong yield
• Value protection in down cycle
• Promotes capital allocation discipline
Moderate Value-Based Growth
• 5 – 8% average production growth through oil & gas development
• Above cost-of-capital returns (ROE and ROCE)
• Return Targets*: Domestic – 15+% International – 20+%
Strong Balance Sheet
• Maintain ample cash balance and additional sources of liquidity
• Low debt-to-capital ratio
• Income-producing assets
*Return targets based on moderate commodity prices.
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1. Base/Maintenance Capital
2. Dividends
3. Growth Capital
4. Acquisitions
5. Share Repurchases
Subject to Returns and Market Conditions
Cash Flow Priorities Favor Dividends
Dividends promote capital allocation discipline
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$0.50 $0.52 $0.55 $0.65 $0.80 $0.94 $1.21 $1.31 $1.47 $1.84 $2.16 $2.56 $2.88 $2.97 $3.02 $3.08$0.50 $1.02 $1.57 $2.22 $3.02
$3.96$5.17
$6.48$7.95
$9.79
$11.95
$14.51
$17.39
$20.36
$23.38
$26.44
$0.00
$4.00
$8.00
$12.00
$16.00
$20.00
$24.00
$28.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q17Ann.
Annual Dividends PaidCumulative Dividends Paid
6Note: Dividends paid as per the Record Date
Delivering Consistent Annual Dividend Growth
($/share)2002 – 2016: Oxy dividend CAGR 13% vs S&P CAGR 7%
7*Pro forma for ongoing operations (excludes operations sold or exited)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mbo
ed
Ongoing Company Excluding Permian Resources Permian Resources
438 435 428 440528
575
Ongoing Total Company Production CAGR 6%*
Permian Resources 16% CAGR
Value Growth - Production Growth Since 2011
8*Competitors ROCE represents a simple average of APA, APC, COP, CVX, DVN, EOG, HES, MRO and XOM
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
00%
10%
20%
30%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Competitors ROCE*OXY ROCE
Value Growth - Annual ROCE for Oxy vs. Average of Competitors
2008 – 2013Oxy Average ROCE 15%
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2013Actual
Cali-fornia
2013 Excl.California
OtherUS
MENA 2013Adjusted
PermianRes.
Al Hosn OtherInternational
South Texas 2016Ongoing
High-MarginProduction
Growth Goal
Cash FlowBreakeven
at $50 WTI*
Divested assets that did not generate competitive corporate returns or free cash flow
Investing in assets with higher cash margin and lower capital intensity Growth target - 80 MBOEPD
Prod
uctio
n (M
boed
))
South Texas Gas propertiesDecline since 2013: 17 Mboed2016 Production: 27 Mboed (11% oil production)
763 (154)
609 (62)(79)
46859
64 28 (44) 57580 655
Set to generate both returns to shareholders and value-based growth
*Cash Flow Breakeven after Dividend and Growth Capital. Slide not updated for transactions announced on June 19, 2017.
Value Growth - Multi-year Returns Focused Portfolio Optimization
2013 Cali-fornia
South Texas
Al Hosn
PermianResources
2013 Adjusted
MENAOther U.S.
2013 exc.California
OtherInt.
2016 HighMarginGrowth
Cash FlowBreakEven
10
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2Q17 CFFOAdjusted to
$40 WTI
Chemicals Midstream &Marketing
71 MboedPermian
ResourcesProduction
OtherImprovements
Cash FlowNeutral at $40
WTI
Increase inCash Flow at
$50 WTI
Cash FlowBreakeven with5%-8% Growth
at $50 WTI
$3.3 $3.5 $3.7$4.3 $4.5
Current Dividend
$2.4
Sustaining Capital$2.3
$120 MM per $1 Change in WTI
Current Dividend
$2.4
Sustaining Capital$2.1
Cash Flow Breakeven at $50:Dividend + 5% – 8% Production Growth $5.7 $5.7
Ope
ratin
g Ca
sh F
low
($ B
n) Growth Capital$1.0
Cash Flow Neutral at $40:Dividend with Flat Production
Seminole-San Andres Acquisition +
Chemicals
Pathway to Cash Flow Breakeven at Low Oil Prices
$4.5
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$0.2$0.2
$0.3
$0.7
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4Chemicals Midstream Permian Resources Production
Achieving Goals to Cash Flow Neutrality at $40
Ethylene cracker achieved full quarter of operating income with first cash distribution expected in 3Q17
Marketing differential improved substantially
Added 9 Mboed of high-margin Permian Resources production
Chemicals market fundamentally improving
Announced cash-neutral Permian transactions
Other Improvements
Annualized Cash Flow From Operations Improvements ($ Bn)Breakeven PlanAchieved since 1Q17
SeminoleAcquisition
Chemicals
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Ample Liquidity to Fulfill Plan Even at $40 WTI
Cash flow outspend through the completion of our plan is covered by available liquidity, including:
• Current cash balance: $2.2 Bn
• Portfolio management: $0.5 - $2.0 Bn
• PAGP units: $0.7 Bn
• Undrawn revolving credit facility: $2.0 Bn
We do not anticipate increasing debt levels to achieve plan
Cash Flows Through End of 2018 at $40 WTI
Operating Cash Flow
$B
n
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
(1.0)
(2.0)
(3.0)
(4.0)
Remaining 20172018
Dividend Payments
Capital Program
Cash Flow Deficit
Available Liquidity
Cash Balance
PAGP
Portfolio Management
$3.6 -$3.9 Bn
13*Competitor Peers include APC, CVX, CXO, DVN, EOG, HES, MRO, PXD. Excludes APA, COP, XOM due to negative F&D.
2016 F&D (Organic) $/Boe19.27
17.19
13.3711.73 11.41
9.59
6.86 6.51 6.45
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 OXY
$/B
oe
Competitor Peers*
Value Growth – Significantly Reduced Development Cost
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(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
HES DVN CXO APC MRO APA EOG COP PXD OXY CVX XOM
*Calculated based on public information and on a consistent basisCompanies listed alphabetically : APA, APC, COP, CVX, CXO, DVN, EOG, HES, MRO, PXD, XOM
Value Growth
Focus on value driven growth - Top quartile returns
Positioned to return to double digit returns
2016 ROCE*
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Oil and Gas Core Areas
• Leading position in the Permian• Permian Resources is a growth driver
United States
Latin America• Highest margin operations in Colombia• Opportunities for moderate growth with partners
Middle East• Focus areas – Oman, Qatar, and UAE• Opportunities for growth with partner countries
Focused Businesses
OxyChem
High free cash flow, moderate growth business
Midstream
Integrated infrastructure and marketing business to maximize realizations
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Permian Resources• Significant acreage & growth
potential in all development areas
• ~637,000 net acres within the Delaware and Midland Basin boundaries
• NM Delaware Basin 290,000
• TX Delaware Basin** 150,000
• Midland Basin* * 210,000
Total ~650,000
NetAcres*Resources Basin Development Areas
• Central Basin Platform 215,000
• New Mexico NW Shelf 150,000
• Emerging Unconventional 50,000
• Continuing Evaluation 335,000
Total ~750,000
NetAcres*
Other Resources Unconventional Areas
• Resources – Unconventional Areas 1.4• Enhanced Oil Recovery Areas 1.1
Oxy Permian Total ~2.5MM
NetAcres*Business Area Acreage
Permian Resources Acreage Permian EOR Acreage
NM Delaware Basin
TX Delaware Basin
Midland Basin
Central BasinPlatform
New Mexico NW Shelf
*Includes surface and minerals.**Adjustment for transactions of 13,000 net acres announced 6/19/2017 where Oxy divested non-strategic acreage in Andrews, Martin and Pecos Counties and added incremental acreage in a new development area in Glasscock County.
2Q Permian Resources Transactions** (13,000)
Updated Resources Basin Acreage ~637,000
• ~302,000 net acres associated with 11,325 wells in unconventional development inventory
• Divested acres offset with additional acres evaluated in 1H17
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
4Q16 <$50BE
Drilled 1H17 DemonstratedCapex
Efficiency
DemonstratedWell
Performance
LandImprovement
EvaluatedNew Acreage
2Q17 <$50BE
Added 400 Hz Locations <$50 BreakevenReached <$50 inventory additions goal since 4Q16
• + 400 locations YTD
• + 3.5 MM feet of total horizontal lateral
• Increased <$50 average length from 8,400’ to 8,600’
• Cost and well performance improvements are sustainable
• Executed 7,000 net acres of trades to enable longer laterals
• Evaluated ~15,000 net acres of new development areas
2,500
2,855
16 years of inventory <$50 breakeven with 10 rigs
Midland Basin
Texas Delaware
Basin
New Mexico
Delaware Basin
Breakeven defined as positive NPV 10
Und
evel
oped
Dril
ling
Loca
tions 45
155 45100
100
18
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Breakeven <$50
Breakeven <$60
Breakeven <$70
AdditionalInventory
2Q17Normalized to
7,100'
4Q16
Added ~20 Rig Years of Activity to <$50 Inventory
2,855
4,250
5,725
11,325 11,650
Permian Resources Inventory 2Q17• + 400 locations BE <$50
> ~300 in New Mexico
> Replaced inventory from divestitures
• + 3.0 MM ft of horizontal lateral footage to inventory
> Increased average length from 7,100 ft to 7,500 ft
Midland Basin
Texas Delaware
Basin
New Mexico
Delaware Basin
*2Q 2017 increased lateral length adjustment to normalize current inventory to 7,100’. **Breakeven defined as positive NPV 10
11,963*
Und
evel
oped
Dril
ling
Loca
tions
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2015 &2016 Avg
2017 FacilitesReduction
SubsurfaceEngineering
LongerLaterals
2018 2019
*Calculated using estimated total year capex (drilling, completions, hookup, facilities, infrastructure, capital workovers, maintenance, seismic). Annual wedge represents the new production added in each year from the capital program (excludes base production)** Other capex includes seismic, science, and maintenance capex.
Permian Resources Capital Intensity Improves through 2019
All-In Capital IntensityAnnual Capex $MM / Annual Wedge Mboed*
$54MM
$33MM2018 & 2019
$27MM – $23MM
• 2017 to 2019 – Value-based Development reduces capital intensity
> Facilities, infrastructure and other** 23% to <15% of
capital budget
> New Mexico wells ~30% to ~55% of total well count
> Effective lateral length from 7,700 ft to 8,600 ft for
wells drilled
• Future intensity improvement opportunities
> Well productivity
> Additional capital efficiency
> SL2 in secondary benches
> Maintenance & logistics hub
> Water recycling
10% improvement in well productivity or capital costs reduces capital intensity by $2MM
$42MM
2H 2017 Rig Ramp
Subsurface Characterization
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Seminole-San Andres Further Strengthens Our Leading Position in EOR
*Source: 2014 Oil & Gas Journal, EOR Survey, adjusted for recent Oxy EOR acquisition
Occidental
Kinder Morgan
DenburyChevron
Exxon Anadarko
Whiting
Resolute
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Inje
ctio
n W
ells
CO2 Projects
Gas EOR Projects*
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
Base Case Target Upside Case
Value of Operating Cost Synergies ($MM PV10)
$5/Boe
$7/Boe
$10/Boe
• Seminole-San Andres is now our largest operated CO2project in the Permian
> San Andres reservoir is world-class
> Oxy now operates 34 CO2 projects in the Permian Basin
• Scale in the Permian provides operating cost savings and production reliability opportunities:
> Base case savings ($5/Boe): improved well maintenance, automation, and commercial scale for supply chain and logistics
> Target savings ($7/Boe): improved plant reliability
> Upside savings ($10/Boe): asset performance at parity with our Denver Unit
• Additional opportunities: D&C cost improvement, plant expansion to accelerate growth, and re-drill and ROZ potential
Production Volumes
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Proven Leader in Maximizing Recovery Across the Permian
<$10 <$6
Permian EOR Net Resource Potential
MM
BO
E CO2 Floods
TZ/ROZ*Water Floods +
Other Infill Drilling
Opportunities
High-gradable Inventory
*Transition Zone and Residual Oil Zone
Permian EOR
• Seminole San Andres Unit adds low F&D inventory
> ~100 MMboe at < $6.00 future development cost
• Significant opportunity to improve and grow new inventory
> Subsurface characterization
> Operating efficiency
> Technology
Future Development Cost ($/BOE)
Permian EOR Water Floods
Midland Basin
Central BasinPlatform
Additional Conventional
Inventory
SSAU Acquisition
Permian EOR CO2 Floods
Permian EOR Plants
SSAU
Total Identified Barrels
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Oman: Assisted with the discovery and started development of Safah Field in
1982. A 15 year contract extension was signed for Block 9 this year. Blocks 27
and 53 expire in 2035. Block 62 expires in 2028.
Oman: Assisted with the discovery and started development of Safah Field in 1982. A 15 year contract extension was signed for Block 9 this year. Blocks 27 and 53 expire in 2035. Block 62 expires in 2028.
Colombia: Discovered giant Cano Limon field in the early 1980’s. Several contracts that currently range from 6 years up to the economic life of field.
Long term contracts
with upside potential
Longest Legacy International Operations: Colombia and Oman
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ISND and ISSD: Offshore development in Qatar. ISND contract for 25 years initiated in 1994. ISSD contract expires in 2022.
Dolphin: Premier transborder pipeline delivering gas from Qatar to Abu Dhabi and Oman. Agreement was initiated in 2007 for a 25 year term.
Al Hosn: 30 year joint venture with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, (“ADNOC”) began in 2011 to develop the giant sour gas field in Abu Dhabi. Largest ultra sour gas plant in the world. Al Hosn is a world-scale mega-project.
Additional Core Middle East Assets
24Source: Factset, 08/24/17
0.1%0.5%
0.8% 0.8%
1.8%2.0% 2.2%
2.4% 2.5% 2.6%
4.0% 4.1%
5.2%
5.7%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
PXD APC DVN EOG MRO SP50010 YearTreasury
COP APA HES XOM CVX OXY TOT
Integrated O&GIndependent E&P
2002 – 2016 Average Oxy Dividend Yield
Dividend yield should revert close to historical levels as we execute plan to a lower cash flow breakeven
Current Dividend Yield vs. Competitors
25Source: Factset, 08/24/2017
Company Market Cap ($Bn)XOM $323RDS $227CVX $202TOT $109BP $114ENI $56
Characteristics• Low or no growth• Higher returns• Stronger Balance Sheet• Lower risk• Free cash flow• Consistent dividend growth
Company Market Cap ($Bn)COP $53EOG $49APC $24PXD $22DVN $16APA $15
Characteristics• Generally higher growth• Lower returns• Weaker Balance Sheet • Higher risk• Little or no free cash flow• Little or no dividends• Moved from gassy to oily
Oxy Uniquely
Positioned
$46 Bn Market Cap
Independent E&PsLarge Integrated Majors
Unique Investment Proposition
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2016 ROCE* Consistent Dividend Growth
• Oxy dividend CAGR doubled S&P CAGR since 2002
• Highest yield vs. US peers
• Historical dividend yield of 2.85%
Moderate Value-Based Growth
• Averaged better than 5% production growth
• Upper quartile ROCE
• Portfolio optimization complete for stronger future returns
Strong Balance Sheet
SuccessfulValue Proposition
Oxy has delivered positive results on each component of our value proposition
• 2Q17 cash balance of $2.2 Bn
• Received tax refund of $750 million during 2Q17
• Low debt-to-capital ratio
• Historical net debt-to-capital ratio of 11%
• “A” level credit rating from Moody’s, S&P and Fitch
Q&A