2011/12

va Barometer 2011/12 – va Report 2011:4

issn: 1653-6843isbn: 978-91-85585-63-2

Published by: Vetenskap & Allmänhet, VAPO Box 5073, SE-102 42 Stockholm, SwedenTelephone: +46 (0)8 791 30 48Fax: +46 (0)8 611 56 23E-mail: info@v-a.seWebsite: www.v-a.se

Readers are welcome to quote from this report provided that VA is cited as the source. More information about the surveys can be found at www.v-a.se

Collaboration between VA and the SOM institute is supported by Riksbankens Jubileumsfond.

The VA barometer is supported by:

Brighter outlook for science? Here are some of the results from VA’s latest barometer:• Confidenceinresearchersatuniversitiesincreasesfollowinga

previous decline• Fewerpeoplethinkthatscienceandtechnologyaretoodifficult

for most people to understand• FouroutoftenthinkSwedenshouldputmoreeffortintoresearch

thathasNobelprizewinningpotential

The VA barometer is an annual survey of Sweden’s attitudes towards research and researchers. This report on the 2011/12 barometer presents results from 1003 telephone interviews and 3000 postal surveys, created and compiled by the SOM institute in collaboration with VA. The telephone interviews were conducted by market research company Novus Opinion between 17th and 21st October 2011. The results are based on a representativesampleoftheSwedishpopulationaged16andover.

last year through swedish eyes...4

Fundamental reform needed of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) management structure, according to a review.

Extremely cold winter and problems with nuclear power plants lead to an all-time high for electricity prices in Sweden.

An EHEC outbreak transmitted by sprouts causes the death of several people across Europe.

Nobel Prize for literature awarded to the Swedish poet Tranströmer.

Apple’s founder Steve Jobs dies.

A governmental report reveals that female researchers were treated unfairly in assessments in research centres of excellence.

Space shuttle Atlantis lands for the final time at Kennedy Space Center in USA.

Measurement by researchers at CERN seem to show that neutrinos travel faster than light.

A professor in Gothenburg is accused of serious scientific fraud.

The ”Arab spring” starts in Tunisia in January and spreads to other Arab countries throughout the year.

Strong earthquake and tsunami lead to melt-down in a nuclear power plant in Fukushima, Japan.

The use of a govern-mental DNA database (PKU) in Sweden for purposes other than research without the permission of donors is criticized.

Swedish Research Council introduces harsher penalties for researchers committing scientific fraud.

Study shows thatnone of the methods used tocounter bullying in schools are based on evidence.

69 young adults murdered on the Norwegian island Utøya, a bomb hits governmental buildings in Oslo.

The Icelandic volcano Grimsvötn erupts. Ash cloud causes air traffic trouble across Europe.

Vaccine against swine influenza found to significantly increase the risk of narcolepsy in children.

Suicide bomb in the city of Stockholm.

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct2011

6 rise in confidence in researchersConfidenceinresearchersatuniversitiesreturnstoahighlevelafteramarkeddeclinein2010.Thelevelofconfidenceinresearcherswithincompaniesalsoincreased,althoughvariationsinthishavebeenlesssignificantoverrecentyears.

In studies such as the VA barometer, attitudes are measured on onesingleday.Mediareleasesimmediatelybeforetheinterviewscanhaveasignificantimpactontheattitudesexpressed.JustbeforetheVAsurveyin2010therewereseveralcriticalreportsrelatingtothere-search work of the IPCC. This probably influenced people’s responses to the barometer in 2010.

Researchersrankhighlyforlevelofconfidenceincomparisonwithother professions (see inset table).

The graph shows the percentages of respondents who answered that they have a high or very high level of confidence in researchers. no. of respondents: 1 003

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

Researchers at universities

Researchers within companies

201120102009200820072006200520042003

51 %

77 %

Educational level

Researchers Universities

Researchers Companies

University 86 % 54 %Compulsory school

70 % 45 %

Confidence ranking: Medical doctorsPolice officersResearchersTeachers compuls. schoolEngineersNational politiciansEconomistsJournalists

8 sweden a trusting nationThetableclearlyshowsalowerlevelofconfidenceforresearcherswithin companies than researchers at universities. However, a compari-son between countries indicates that Swedes still have a comparatively highlevelofconfidenceintheirresearchers.AnanalysisoftheresultsranksSwedenfourthintermsofconfidenceinscienceandresearchandintoppositionwhenitcomestoconfidenceinresearcherswithincompanies(seerighttable).

Swedenalsostandsoutwhenitcomestotrustinpeopleingeneral.DatafromtheWorldValuesSurveyshowsthatSwedeshavethehighestlevel of trust in most people compared to all other countries surveyed. (Delheyetal(2011):Howgeneralistrustin“MostPeople”,Solvingtheradiusoftrustproblem,AmericanSociologicalReview76(5):786-807.)

The tables show the ranking of confidence in research based on data from the Eurobarometer and the National Science Board, USA.

Source: German Institute for Economic Research, DIW Berlin, 2009.

Confidence in science and research1. Finland2. Denmark3. UK4. Sweden5. The Netherlands6. Belgium7. Japan8. Canada9. USA10. Italy11. Germany

Confidence in researchers within companies1. Sweden2. Denmark3. Belgium4. Finland5. UK6. The Netherlands7. Italy8. Japan9. Canada10. Spain11. USA

10 what influences confidence? Over the last decade since the start of the VA barometer, attitudes towardsresearchershavechangedcontinuously.Itappearsthattrustinresearchersiseasilyinfluenced–butbywhat?Whatisitthatnegativelyinfluences people’s opinion of researchers?

Themostimportantreasonfortheunderminingoftrustisresear-cherssometimesfollowingnon-scientificinterests,accordingtothosequestioned.Onlyonefifthoftherespondentsbelievethatdifferencesofopinionbetweenresearchersaccountsforlowerlevelsofconfidence.

The reasons proposed for decreased trust are based on open answers giveninapreviousstudyaboutwhypeoplehavehighorlowconfidencein researchers (VA-report 2011:1).

Graph shows the percentages of respondents who think that …is something that could have accounted very much for the reduced confidence in resear-chers (on a scale from very much to not at all). no. of respondents: 1 003

0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 %

...researchers sometimeshave di�erent opinions

...researchers sometimes conductresearch without yielding

useful results

...researchers sometimes carry outresearch that might be harmful for

mankind or the environment

...researchers sometimes scare thepublic about things that laterturn out not to be dangerous

...researchers sometimesfabricate or alter research results

...researchers sometimesfollow company or

political interests41 %

37 %

33 %

30 %

23 %

23 %

12 financial crises hard to followResearchers and other experts often appear in the media by contribu-tingtodebatesorcommentingonnewsitems.Buthowwelldoesthewiderpublicunderstandwhattheresearchersaresaying?

Morethanhalfofrespondentsthinkthatdebatesaboutfinancialcrises are hard to understand. Approximately one third consider discus-sionsaboutecologically-producedfooddifficulttofollow.

Resultsalsoshowthatmorehighlyeducatedpeoplecanfollowthedebatesmoreeasily.Olderpeopleaged60oroverhavemoredifficultiesunderstandingthedebates.Debatesaboutfinancialcrisesandrenewa-bleenergyareeasierformentofollowwhereasdebatesaboutecologicalfood and teachers’ education are easier for women to understand.

The graph shows the percentages of respondents who think that it is very or fairly difficult to follow debates about… (on a scale from very easy to very difficult). no. of respondents: 1 003

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

Ecologicalfood

Teachers’education

Renewableenergy

Financialcrises

54 %

45 % 44 %

38 %

14 researchers in societal deBatesThepreviouschartshowsthatmanypeoplehavedifficultiesfollowingresearch-intensive discussions. There are many reasons for this, for examplebecausethesubjectitselfisdifficultoralackofinterest.Weaskedrespondentstoindicatethereasonswhyitisdifficulttofollowthe debates.

Themostfrequentresponsewhenaskedaboutfollowingdebatesaboutfinancialcrises,renewableenergyandecologicalfoodisthatitishardtounderstandresearchersandexperts.Themainreasongivenforhavingproblemsunderstandingdiscussionsaboutteachers’educa-tion is a lack of interest in the subject.

Youngpeopleshowsignificantlylessinterestintheresearch-inten-sive debates asked about in the survey.

The graph shows the percentage of respondents saying that….is the reason why they have difficulties following each debate (multiple responses allowed). no. of respondents: 1 003

0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 %

I am not interestedin this subject

The subject itself is di�cult

It is di�cult to understandwhat researchers are saying

Teachers’ education

Ecological food

Renewable energy

Financial crises

39 %

43 %

25 %

21 %

33 %

30 %

20 %

20 %

22 %

11 %

29 %

16 %

16

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

UK: Strongly/tend to agree

Sweden: Agree completely/largely

20112010200920082007200620052004200320022000

29 %

63 %

decreasing “respect” for s&tOnlyonethirdoftherespondentsthinkthatscienceandtechnologyaretoodifficultformostpeopletounderstand,whichrepresentsaclear decrease over recent years. Less educated and elderly people (60+)indicatemoreoftenthanhighlyeducatedandyoungerpeoplethatitistoohardtounderstandscienceandtechnology.

AsimilarquestionwasposedintheUK:Scienceandtechnologyis too specialized for most people to understand. In 2010, more than twothirdsoftheBritishpublicagreedwiththisstatement.AlthoughtheSwedishandBritishstatementsarewordedslightlydifferently,theresultssuggestthatSwedesareless“respectful”towardsscienceandtechnologythantheBrits.(ref.PublicAttitudestoScience,IpsosMORI, 2011).

The graph shows the percentages of respondents who agree completely or largely (Sweden) or strongly agree or tend to agree (UK). no. of respondents: 2 103 (uk), 1 003 (sweden)

Agree completely/largely: men 27 %, women 32 %, university 19 %, compulsory school 38 %, age 16–29 20 %, age 60+ 43 %

Sweden: Science and technology are too difficult for most people to understand

UK: Science and technology are too specialised for most people to understand

18 highest confidence in medicineConfidenceinresearchvarieswidelyacrossdifferentresearchdisciplines.Peoplehavethehighesttrustinmedicalsciencesandthelowesttrustin humanities and educational sciences.

Howeverthepercentageofpeoplesayingtheyhaveverylittleconfidenceinhumanitiesoreducationalsciencesisverylow.Rather,peopletendtohavenoopinionaboutthesesciencesandanswer“noopinion”or“neithernor”.

TheseresultsareinlinewithfindingsfromearlierVAstudiesabouthowscientificthepublicregardsdifferentresearchdisciplines.Medicinewasconsidered“veryscientific”whereasonlybetween20and40percentthoughthistory,philosophyandreligioussciencewere“veryscientific”(seee.g.VA-barometer2009and2010).

The graph shows the percentages of respondents who have very strong or fairly strong confidence in the following research disciplines in Sweden…no. of respondents: 1 582 in 2010. Data from SOM surveys 2002–2010.

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

Humanities

Educational sciences

Social sciencesNatural sciences

Technology

Medicine

201020092008200720062005200420032002

36 %39 %

47 %

61 %

77 %

70 %

20 optimism aBout climate decreasingOverthelastfewyearshaveweseenanincreasinglevelofconfidencein researchers, but also a decline in optimism about the potential for scienceandtechnologytostopclimatechange.Incomparisonwithinternational data, more Swedes need to be convinced than Finns or the Frenchthatresearchandtechnologycanhelptostopclimatechange(see inset table).

ThreeoutoffourrespondentsbelievethatscienceandtechnologycanincreaseeconomicgrowthinSwedenwhichisthesamepercentageas in 2010. This is also the same level as in the UK where 75 per cent oftheBritssaythatresearchcontributestoeconomicgrowth(PublicAttitudes to Science, Ipsos MORI 2011).

The graph shows the percentages of respondents who believe that over the next decade there is a good chance that research will help to... no. of respondents: 1 003

* VA Barometer 2011. ** Les Français et la Science 2011. *** Finnish Science Barometer 2007.

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

... slow climate change

... increase economic growth in Sweden

201120102009200820072006200520042003

64 %

73 %

Sweden: Do you believe that, over the next decade, there is a good chance that research will help to slow climate change (yes/no)*

64 %

France: Do you think that one day science and technology can solve global warming (yes/no)**

52 %

Finland: Do you think science is able to solve or be of significant help to mankind in arresting or retarding climate change (very good/ fairly good)***

36 %

22 concerns aBout chemicals and gmoTwo thirds of the respondents are fairly or very concerned about chemicalsintheenvironmentandgeneticallymodifiedfoods,whereas only one quarter worries about nanoparticles in household products.

AlthoughSwedesaretheworld’smostfrequentusersofmobilephones, 38 percent of respondents are concerned about radiation from their mobiles.

Womenworrymorethanmenaboutalltheissuesgiven.Ingeneral,youngerpeople,undertheageof30,havefewerconcernsthan older people.

The graph shows the percentage of respondents who are very concerned or fairly concerned about… (on a scale from very strongly to not at all). no. of respondents: 1 003

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

Nanoparticlesin household

products

Mobile phoneradiation

GMfoods

Chemicals in theenvironment

60 % 60 %

38 %

24 %

24 prioritisation of research areasResearch that has clear applications is more important than research areaswherethebenefitsarelessobvious,accordingtothemajorityofthosequestioned.Theseresultscanbecomparedtothefindingsaboutlevelsofconfidenceindifferentresearchdisciplines(p18).

Respondentswithhightrustinresearchandresearchersmoreof-ten think that it is important to spend money on research than those withalowerlevelofconfidenceinresearchers(VAReport2011:3).

Ingeneral,youngerpeopleconsiderresearchlessimportantthanotherrespondents.Oneexceptionhoweveristhattheyoung(age16-29)wanttoseemoreeffortsputintospaceresearch.

The graph shows the percentage of respondents stating that it is very important or fairly important for Sweden to spend money on world-class research about… (on a scale from very important to not at all important). no. of respondents: 1 582 in 2010. Data from SOM surveys 2002–2010.

0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %Philosophy

Literary studiesSpace

DesignArchaeology

Political scienceHistory

Business administrationGlobalization

Swedish languageGene technology

PedagogicsEconomics

ITTransportation technology

Sustainable �shingAllergies

TechnologyRheumatic diseases

ClimateEnvironment

EnergyHeart and lung diseases

Cancer 74 %67 %

55 %54 %54 %

50 %47 %

37 %29 %28 %

26 %23 %23 %23 %

22 %20 %

17 %11 %

9 %9 %

8 %8 %

6 %5 %

26 go for noBel prize research!FouroutoftenpeoplethinkSwedenshouldputmoreeffortintoresearch that could lead to a Nobel prize. Only two out of ten do not agreeatall.Olderpeoplemoreoftenagreewiththestatement,butdifferencesbetweengroupsingeneralaresmall.

30percentthinkresearchersareoftengoodatexplainingtheirresearchresultstothepublic.Surprisingly,peoplewithonlyacompulsory-leveleducationandolderpeoplearemorelikelytoagree,butdifferencesacrossthegendersandagegroupsaresmall.

Graph shows the percentage of respondents who agree completely or largely with the respective statements (on a scale from agree completely to not at all). no. of respondents: 1 003

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

Do not agree at all

Agree completely or largely

Researchers are mostly good atexplaining their research results ina comprehensive way to the public

Sweden should put moree�orts on research that

could lead to Nobel Prizes

40 %

20 %

30 %

18 %

28 VA (Public & Science) is a Swedish association which aims to promote dialogueandopennessbetweenthegeneralpublic–especiallytheyoung–andresearchers.Theassociationendeavourstostimulatenewformsofdialogueinunconventionalarenasonissuesthatconcernpeople,andtoconnecttheseissuestoscience.VAisanon-for-profitmembershiporganisation,withdiversemembersfromacrossSwedishsocietyincludingorganisations,publicauthorities,companies,universities and individuals.

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