Hubbert Curve By Kathleen Montz, Seth Johnston, Christopher Kemple.
Using Hubbert linearization to forecast covid19 deaths
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1 Jean Laherrère 16 March 2020 Using Hubbert linearization to forecast covid19 deaths The term Hubbert linearization was introduced by Deffeyes in his 2005 book to estimate the ultimate of oil production by drawing a linear extrapolation of annual/cumulative versus cumulative towards the zero (no production = ultimate). This technique is useful before peak and is inspired of the work of King Hubbert = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_linearization HL linearization is used to forecast oil production before peak, by estimating the ultimate and the peak time The best example is the forecast of USL48 using HL in 1956 to compare with Hubbert estimate. The linear extrapolation of past oil production for the period 1930-1955 gives an ultimate of 180 Gb when Hubbert in 1956 took a geological estimate range of 150-200 Gb It is obvious on this example that the aP/CP% (annual/cumulative%) plot is exactly linear up to 2005, and that the unexpected arrival of LTO has spoiled the plot (previously the deepwater), making the present estimate of the USL48 oil ultimate questionable (260 Gb). 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 annual/cumulative % cumulative production Gb US Lower 48 HL of oil production 1859-1955 1859-2019 1930-1955 Jean Laherrere March 2020
Transcript of Using Hubbert linearization to forecast covid19 deaths
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Jean Laherrère 16 March 2020 Using Hubbert linearization to forecast covid19 deaths The term Hubbert linearization was introduced by Deffeyes in his 2005 book to estimate the ultimate of oil production by drawing a linear extrapolation of annual/cumulative versus cumulative towards the zero (no production = ultimate). This technique is useful before peak and is inspired of the work of King Hubbert = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_linearization HL linearization is used to forecast oil production before peak, by estimating the ultimate and the peak time The best example is the forecast of USL48 using HL in 1956 to compare with Hubbert estimate. The linear extrapolation of past oil production for the period 1930-1955 gives an ultimate of 180 Gb when Hubbert in 1956 took a geological estimate range of 150-200 Gb
It is obvious on this example that the aP/CP% (annual/cumulative%) plot is exactly linear up to 2005, and that the unexpected arrival of LTO has spoiled the plot (previously the deepwater), making the present estimate of the USL48 oil ultimate questionable (260 Gb).
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Jean Laherrere March 2020
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But HL plot could be hard to extrapolate on a linear trend as for the UK oil field of Forties
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USL48 crude oil (incl condensate) oil production & forecasts
increase 2.5 %/adecline 2.5 %/a5%/a +LTO + deep -0,35%/a + U = 35 GbU = 260 GbUSL48decline 10 %/aU = 35 GbLTOU = 15 GbdeepwaterEIA/AEO2020 USL48EIA/AEO2020 LTO
Jean Laherrere March 2020
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The best example of HL is for the coal production in UK or in France, where the ultimate is known as production was terminated. For UK HL on the period 1853-1945 (red) is fairly linear and its extrapolation not far from the real value (27 Mt)
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Jean Laherrere July 2016
gaslift 19875th platform
BP sale to Apache 2004
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For France & Belgium, HL before peak (1956) is hyperbolic and its extrapolation too high HL on the period 1956-2007 (end of production) is close to linear.
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Jean Laherrere Feb 2016 source Rutledge, DUKES
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Jean Laherrere 2015 source: Rutledge
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HL as used by Péry in 2007 to estimate phosphate production in Nauru Island (see my 2020 paper on phosphate production) HL on China daily deaths displays a curved plot but the last period 27 February-16 March trends towards a total of 3300 deaths, giving a Hubbert curve peaking at 132 deaths
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Jean Laherrere 2015 source: Rutledge, EIA
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covid19: HL of China daily deaths 13 feb-15 march
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For the world excluding China HL for the last 5 days (up to 14 March) trends towards 6000 deaths
This 6000 deaths ultimate gives a peak at 450 daily deaths for now, but covid18 will be gone in the beginning of April!
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Jean Laherrere 16 March 2020
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covid19: HL of world excluding China daily deaths 13 feb-14 march
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Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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But it is obvious that this estimate based on just 5 days data is questionable and can change quickly The same plot the next day up to 15 march was changed completely, HL on just 6 days trends now towards 12 000 changing the peak by few days
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China daily deathexcl China daily deathsU = 8000excl China total deathsU = 8000
Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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For Italy HL for the last 5 days (ending 14 March) trends towards 2500 deaths, giving a peak in few days
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China daily deathexcl China daily deathsU = 8000excl China total deathsU = 8000
Jean Laherrere 16 March 2020
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covid19: HL of Italy daily deaths 13 feb-14 march
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Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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But the data up to 16 March changes also completely the ultimate from 2500 to 4000, changing the peak but not really the peak time, being few days later
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China daily deathItaly daily deathsU = 2500Italy total deathsU = 2500
Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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Jean Laherrere 16 March 2020
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For France HL on the last 6 days trends towards an ultimate of 250 deaths, giving a peak in few days around 20 daily deaths
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China daily deathItaly daily deathsU = 4000Italy total deathsU = 4000
Jean Laherrere 16 March 2020
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covid19: HL of France daily deaths 13 feb-14 march
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Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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The large increase on 15 march changes the HL ultimate from 250 to 1800, but the HL is obviously not linear and wrong. The peak time is delayed by a week
It is likely that the HL will change sharply with the coming days
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Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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covid19: HL of France daily deaths 13 feb-15 march
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For Iran HL the last 6 days up to 14 March were really linear
Similar HL up to 15 March, being really linear
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Jean Laherrere 16 March 2020
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covid19: HL of Iran daily deaths 13 feb-14 march
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Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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Peak before 23 March at 150 deaths
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Jean Laherrere 16 March 2020
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Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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For Spain Hl for the last 3 days was almost linear trending towards 1000
The peak for an ultimate of 1000 deaths is forecasted in few days at 100 daily deaths
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Jean Laherrere 16 March 2020
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covid19: HL of Spain daily deaths 13 feb-14 march
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Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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With 15 March data the ultimate increases from 1000 to 2200: the HL is not anymore linear
But even with an ultimate more than double the peak is in less than a week!
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Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
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It is obvious that every country has a different pattern for the total deaths The best way to compare them is to use a log scale
To compare the different countries trends with the same origin they are shifted to day 1 when a total of 10 deaths are reached
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Jean Laherrere 16 March 2020
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Jean Laherrere 16 March 2020
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Spain and Italy are similar, as US and South Korea and France and Iran are parallel, Conclusion: HL is the only way to estimate the peak before it is reached but it works well only when the HL is really linear, it is not often the case If the value of the final total deaths has changed a lot from 14 to 15 March, the date of the peaks is within few days The famous 1956 Hubbert forecast for USL48 was for a peak in 1965 for an ultimate of 150 Gb and for 1970 for an ultimate of 200 Gb. The most fascinating was that an increase by one third was shifting only the peak by 5 years. It is the same with covid19, doubling the ultimate total deaths changes only the peak by a week. It is likely that my forecast will change with new data during the coming fortnight, but Hl technique shows that it provides useful estimate within a range of uncertainty.
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coronavirus total deaths per country starting at 10 log scale
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Jean Laherrere 15 March 2020
